July Plug-In EV Sales Strong In The US, Pass 100,000 Delivered YTD

3 months ago by Jay Cole 124

The first 30 Tesla Model 3s arrived in the US in July…by year’s end the new Tesla could be contributing as much as 10,000-20,000 per month if production goes as per the company’s plans

Unlike the traditional automotive market in the US, which has been in free fall of late (and off a massive 7% in July), the plug-in electric vehicle segment in the US has been on an upward swing for almost two years (year-over-year gains have been noted in the last 22 consecutive months*). 

Now in July, the most anticipated offering to date finally arrived in the US to further help the numbers in the second half, the car of course being the Tesla Model 3.

Best selling plug-in on dealer lots in the US? The Chevrolet Bolt EV – topping the charts for the first time ever!

At a special event in Fremont, California, Tesla delivered the first 30 Model 3s to anxious owners.

The new Tesla comes in two models, a base 220 mile version from $35,000 (+DST), and a 310 mile version from $44,000 – both with 0-60 mph times just over 5 seconds (watch the Model 3 debut/first delivery party + full details and specs here).

And while the Model 3 didn’t assist in July’s EV sales (at least in any meaningful way), the plug-in segment needed no help this month as some ~15,607 vehicles were sold, a gain of almost 20%.

What did help push the numbers higher was the Chevrolet Bolt EV, which lead all plug-in offerings in sales in July – a first for GM’s EV; during the month almost 2,000 Bolts were sold.  Better still, July was the last month of the EVs regional roll-out, as the Bolt will be available nationwide starting in August – can 3,000 sales months be far off?

Overall, the US easily crossed into 6 digits for 2017, as ~104,863 plug-ins have been sold YTD, good for a gain of 35% from the 77,769  sold through the first 7 months of 2016.

Honda Clarity Electric

Honda Clarity Electric

Of interest in July:

  • the Model 3 wasn’t the best selling newcomer in July, the Honda Clarity Electric actually arrived a few days ahead of its planned August release – and sold 34 copies.
  • Mercedes turned on the inventory taps for the US, as the popular C350 e was re-stocked at dealers for the first time since January, moving from zero sales in June to 112 in July, Also in the Mercedes camp, the luxury S 550 e set a new 2018 high, besting its 2nd best result by 50% (with 124 sales)
  • Meanwhile, BMW hit new all-times highs with the 530e, notching an impressive 343 sales in just its 3rd month on the market, while the MINI plug-in Countryman sold 75 in its first full month on sale in  America.
  • BMW also became the first automaker to sell more then 300 copies of 4 different plug-in models: i3, X5 PHV, 330e, 530e

Looking ahead, the Tesla Model 3 is expected to add at least 25,000 sales over the next 5 months, and the US market will also shortly see the introduction of the Hyundai Ioniq Plug-In, the Kia Niro PHV, the new Nissan LEAF, next gen smart EDs (coupe and cabrio), Porsche Panamera 4 E hybrid, and the Honda Clarity PHV.

The takeaway from this month’s report, and what is in the pipeline?  Plug-in electric vehicles sales will continue to rise, and rise even more dramatically in the near future.

2017 Monthly Sales Chart For The Major Plug-In Automakers – *Estimated Tesla Sales Numbers – Reconciled on Quarterly Totals, ** FCA/Hyundai-Kia Do Not Report Sales Directly, Estimate Based on State/Rebate Data (Thanks to HybridCars for assist on Kia data)

Other Statistical Points of Interest from July 2017

The Plug-In Mini Countryman might prove to be popular in the US, as 75 copies were sold in its first full month on the market

Top Manufacturers Of Plug-In Vehicles:

  1. General Motors – 3,514
  2. Tesla* – 3,105
  3. BMW Group – 2,004
  4. Ford – 1,695
  5. Toyota – 1,645
  6. Nissan – 1,283
  7. VW Group – 686
  8. FCA* – 600

Pure Electric Car Market Share vs PHEV In July*

  1. BEV – 7,922– 50.8%
  2. PHEV – 7,685 -49.2%

(*) estimated

New Year Highs Set In July By Model (previous 2017 high in brackets)

  • Chevrolet Bolt EV – 1,971 (1,642)
  • BMW 530e – 343 (239)
  • Kia Optima PHV – 130 (86)
  • Mercedes S 550 e – 124 (83)
  • Mercedes B 250 e – 81 (66)
  • Mini Countryman PHV – 75 (10)
  • Cadillac CT6 Plug-In Hybrid -22 (20)
  • Honda Clarity Electric – 34 (new model)
  • Tesla Model 3 – 30 (new model)

The full monthly recap by individual plug-in (all-time) can be found on our Monthly Scorecard here.

*On year of monthly sales improvements: We know someone is going to look at the chart and say, “hey, only ~11,467 sales were made in May of 2016, when 11,540 were logged in 2015!  What gives InsideEVs?”  What gives is – through an odd scheduling quirk, only 24 selling days were reported in May 2016 (versus 26 in 2015)

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124 responses to "July Plug-In EV Sales Strong In The US, Pass 100,000 Delivered YTD"

  1. bro1999 says:

    Now let’s see how many Model 3 reservation holders “Bolt” from their reservation in the coming months. 😀

    Very possible this starts a winning streak for the Bolt as far as being monthly sales king moving forward.

    1. Mark.ca says:

      What’s your guess for the next month? I bet the M3 dropouts are not that many so the Bolt will stay under 2500.

      1. Jay Cole says:

        It’s an interesting question, if just 1 in 1,000 drop for the Bolt EV in the US, that’s 500 extra sales (~500k reservists). A miniscule .1%, but statistically significant to the norms.

        I don’t think its not unreasonable to assume more than a few in the US have watched the Bolt EV’s arrival (and the quick/unexpected MSRP reductions that have made ~$225 lease deals for 238 miles of range common) and have thought “that is interesting and I could go down to the dealer and grab one today…but I have to wait to see what Tesla is offering me on my reservation before I could opt for that”.

        Taking it one step further for August sales, why limit any fallout to the Bolt EV?

        For sure, there is the obvious connection with the similar ranges/base pricing between the 3 and the Bolt…but I don’t think you can say that if one surveyed all Model 3 reservists and said “if the Model 3 was cancelled tomorrow, what would you buy instead?” that 500,000 people would say the Bolt EV.

        I suspect that whatever number decided to not buy (whether that be for pricing, options, or delivery ETAs), it will spread out to the entire market to some degree.

        After GM in the US, one assumes the next most likely to benefit in the short term on any number of defections would be BMW (who has shown the ability to sell multiple mid-range plug-in offerings this month).

        Past current plug-in options, some who are discouraged for some reason with the Model 3 may also decided to wait one just more month (they have come this far already anyway), just to see what Nissan shows for stats/pricing on the 2018 LEAF in September (as it’s debut is only a month out now).

        1. R.S says:

          While I do think now that the Model 3 is finally here, Bolt sales will rise.

          I do also think that it will take the Leaf 2.0 reveal, before most yet undecided will decide for a car.

          And, of course, there aren’t 500k people that reserved a Model 3 in the US. Those were global reservations. So US reservations could be halve of that, or even lower.

          Still, Bolt sales should go up, now that the biggest hype is over. I am even surprised that many people bought one this month, instead of waiting for the Model 3 reveal.

        2. Vexar says:

          Tesla stated in their quarterly update that they are seeing an average of 1800 net reservations a day. That says two things: some people are still canceling their reservations, but the demand is… the ninth plane of hell for manufacturing ramp-up. I don’t think Tesla is remotely concerned about reservation holders going out and getting a lease on a Bolt or Leaf, and stepping out of line for the time being. It’s no skin off their front fascia.

          1. Jay Cole says:

            For myself, I am definitely not saying there is any cancellations of huge significance, or any issues with what Tesla has shown off with the Model 3 – I think most people who reserved a car were satisified…or at least received the news the expected.

            Just that even the slightest percentage amount of drop-outs on their reservation lists is a decent size number.

            1. Vexar says:

              Agreed and understood. If the Bolt orders grow in CY 2017 by 1% of (500,000 – 30 + 6*1800)= 510,770 * .01 = 5108, even spread out over five months, that’s 1021 per month which is a 75% jump over the 1366 monthly average they are posting. A 0.1% growth would still be 7.5% for the Bolt, which is significant on its own. I like the look of the new Leaf, as I’ve posted so here before. My take is that the 0.1% (or 1%) theoretical drop in Model III reservations will be split not principally between the Bolt and the Leaf, but the PHEV vehicles from BMW and Mercedes, and to a lesser degree Audi. I have already run into that scenario before, and the people who were considering the Model S felt it was just a little too much to afford, but were comfortable with the German luxury PHEV options. With the Model III out now (more or less, at least for the Tesla employees for now!), there will be a market segment comparison-shopping with the Bolt and Leaf 2, but I feel that larger numbers are in this German luxury PHEV market.

          2. unlucky says:

            I agree. The crossing point between Model 3 deliveries and reservations is so far out that that future doesn’t even resemble the present.

            We’ll see the end of the $7500 rebate in the US before that point. We’ll see the announcement (but maybe not delivery) of EVs from the major German automakers before then. We’ll see crossover EVs announced from German and probably US automakers before then. Things will look so different it would be hard to bother sweating losing even a couple thousand reservations right now.

            You’ll lose far more (and probably gather more) due to changing market conditions between now and then anyway.

          3. Asak says:

            I think the reservation numbers are kind of irrelevant until the point where people have to commit to buying. I have a reservation on a Model 3, but I think the odds that I will go through with the purchase are slim. I expect the EV rebate to be phased out before my order comes up.

            I don’t really need the thousand bucks, so I’ll just keep it as an option for the time being. But the reality is a lot of reservations are not going to become orders.

      2. Hans Hammermill says:

        I’ll shoot — I’ll guess 3k BoltEV sales for August.

        I think they’ll still be a lot of people waiting on the Leaf 2.0 reveal. I think September will unmask true demand for the BoltEV (good or bad).

      3. pjwood1 says:

        3400. GM gets aggressive this time of year. The 2017/18 cars are becoming a known quantity, and the recent deals are perhaps their own trigger.

        I took my Volt seats out, to meet a 240V arc welder. This has me wondering if any of GM’s heated/cooled ventilated seats would retro-fit, or share the seat rails?

      4. Someone out there says:

        My guess is ~2200. The sales are slowly increasing overall and August is a better month than July.

    2. WadeTyhon says:

      I am thinking ~2200 in August. Vehicles still need to be built and shipped to the new states.

      September and October I am thinking around 2500.

      ~3000 or more in Nov and Dec.

      How much more could depend on 35k model 3 delivery dates and the Gen 2 leaf’s range.

      I think the Volt will get a boost as well this winter as an alternative to the Model 3. I hope GM builds enough of both to fill potential demand!

      1. Kdawg says:

        I think there will be a big bump at the end of 2017 as GM gets closer and closer to running out of tax credits.

    3. scott franco says:

      Seems everyone here insists on seeing the Bolt and the M3 as competitors. They are not, they are very different cars for different uses.

      I have a Bolt. I am waiting for my M3, which will replace a Spark.

      There is no conflict at all.

      1. Pushmi-Pullyu says:

        Tesla’s pricing on Model 3 options certainly indicates it does not see the TM3 (Tesla Model 3) as a Bolt EV competitor, but rather as a BMW 3-Series or Audi A4 competitor.

        And yeah, I think there will be a significant number of TM3 reservers “Bolting” for that GM car. It may or may not be a significant percentage, but likely a lot more than 1 in 1000.

        1. FISHEV says:

          “TM3 (Tesla Model 3) as a Bolt EV competitor, but rather as a BMW 3-Series or Audi A4 competitor.”

          Neither the BMW or the Audi are very high mileage or low in emissions so no reason they would be competitor for an EV which is purpose built for low emissions.

          1. Spider-Dan says:

            You are presuming that Model 3 buyers are primarily motivated by fuel efficiency or environmentalism. I think if that were the case, they would have already bought a Bolt.

          2. Pushmi-Pullyu says:

            “…an EV which is purpose built for low emissions.”

            And what does that have to do with a Tesla car? Nothing, that’s what. Tesla cars are not “punishment cars” built only for dyed-in-the-wool “greenies”.

            Tesla builds compelling, desirable cars to compete with the best gasmobile sedans, “liftbacks”, and compact CUVs on the market. Tesla’s ambitions are far loftier than merely competing with the Prius and the Leaf!

            1. FISHEV says:

              “And what does that have to do with a Tesla car?”

              Well you see Tesla’s are EV’s purpose built to lower emissions to build sustainable (non polluting) transportation system.

              That being the case some gas powered models from BMW and Audi that don’t get particularly good MPG would not be a competitor for a Tesla.

          3. unlucky says:

            The idea from here on out is to start converting EVERYONE to EV drivers.

            We need to go beyond the drivers to self-select into an EV. We need drivers who are just looking for a car to buy EVs. So that means that ICE cars are competitors.

            So yeah, those Audi gas cars do compete.

        2. Tom says:

          The exodus may happen come Nov/Dec when reservations holders note that there is no way they will get a model 3 this year and they want to save that $7500 on 2017 taxes and know that if they wait for the M3, they will never see that tax break. I look for GM to finish the year big due to the incentive issues looming in 2018.

      2. WadeTyhon says:

        We are getting a Model 3 (hopefully) to go along side our Bolt. Depends on what pricing, incentives, and availability looks like next summer.

        As far as feature set, long range driving, and styling are concerned, I think the Volt will appeal to Model 3 buyers who decide to walk away. My wife loves our Bolt, but she is weighing a Model 3 or a Gen 2 Volt to buy next year. Not a second Bolt.

        But for people who want BEV only and no longer see Model 3 as an option? I can see them settling for a Bolt.

      3. Asak says:

        Come on, the Model 3, Bolt, Leaf 2.0, and also the Volt are all competitors. They are all long range (or range assisted EVs). Things like Prius (even non-Prime) and Ioniq (even non-EV or PHEV) may also be in the mix of competition among eco-buyers. Model 3 might also be competing with BMW and other luxury buyers too, but that’s a different market segment *in addition to* EVs.

        All cars compete to a certain extent, but EVs definitely are all in competition because the market is so small. The EV market is growing though which should benefit all EVs, even as they compete with one another.

        1. Pushmi-Pullyu says:

          I don’t see this as an either/or, binary case. There is some truth to both viewpoints. Sure, people who are interested in a PEV (Plug-in EV) will consider the Bolt EV, the Leaf 2.0, and probably the Volt as well as the TM3, and possibly a few others too, unfortunately including low-electric-range PHEVs such as the Prius Prime.

          But where are most of the Model 3 sales going to come from? Will the buyer’s previous car have been another PEV, or a gasmobile?

          I’m guessing the overwhelming majority of buyers will be trading up in favor of a TM3 over a gasmobile. As I’ve said many times, Tesla isn’t aiming at the ~1% of the new car market that is PEV sales; it’s aiming at the ~99% that is gasmobile sales!

      4. Justin says:

        I agree they are not direct competitors except that they are electric. I think the Nissan Leaf and Bolt are the closest thing we’ll see this year to two evenly priced electrics that will be cross shopped. I’m placing money on the newly designed Leaf if it comes in at 200 miles or greater. The Bolt is great in many ways but looks too much like a Chevy econobox to be a runaway hit. That will happen when GM uses the platform for a small SUV.

    4. unlucky says:

      Bolt EV? You mean that vehicle that I hear from commenters isn’t selling well?

      1. Pushmi-Pullyu says:

        It wasn’t selling as well as we expected, let alone as well as we wanted it to. But the latest news, from last month’s sales, is that the Bolt EV is finally doing somewhat better. Still disappointing, but perhaps no longer badly below expectations.

        If you think it’s unfair to set expectations higher for the Bolt EV than for other PEVs… well, perhaps it is. But GM promised a lot with the Bolt EV, and as far as sales go, they have not yet delivered.

        At least there’s one silver lining to this cloud: We no longer see dyed-in-the-wool GM advocates stubbornly defending their wishful thinking, contrary to literally all actual evidence, that GM will ramp up to make more than 50,000 Bolt EVs per year!

        1. unlucky says:

          The car isn’t at fault for your expectations.

          You thought the car would sell 30,000. In the first half of the year, where they are still figuring out how to ramp up and it isn’t available nationwide it sold almost 1/3rd of the expected total. Does that seem unreasonable?

          It takes time to get cars made and get them out there.

    5. BobG says:

      Someone please correct me if I’m wrong, but GM records a Bolt sale when it leaves the factory bound for the dealer. Tesla records the sale when all paperwork is finalized for delivery to the customer.

      There are widespread reports of unsold inventory piling up on dealership lots.

      So the actual sales of Bolts to paying customers is much smaller than what is indicated in the table. They may even be decelerating.

      Opening up deliveries nationwide may do little to increase end user sales and only serve to provide more asphalt with which to park unsold (to the end user) Bolts on.

      1. unlucky says:

        Vehicles in dealer inventory are floor planned. They are sold to the dealers.

        https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Retail_floorplan

        But that’s not the figures we are talking about here. Insideevs uses their own methodology to only count vehicles sold to customers. So the figures in that chart are not due to “loading the channel”.

        Also, the idea that Bolts are littering lots is false, as covered many times on here. The average Bolt-authorized dealer has only 6 Bolts on the lot.

        I’m not sure what led you to post that the Bolt sales figures here are misleading but there isn’t any reason to actually believe it.

        1. BobG says:

          A quick check of GM’s own dealer inventory finder website (http://www.chevrolet.com/bolt-ev-electric-vehicle/vehicle#) shows there are at least 4650 cars sitting on dealer lots across the US.

          CA 2400
          OR 314
          WA 300
          MA, NY, NJ, CT, ME, RI 1135
          MD&VA 406
          CO 92
          Total 4647

          This is almost half of what insideevs shows as sold this year. The car isn’t selling, while Tesla has 455,000 reservations for the M3 and is now getting more in a week than GM has sold Bolts in 8 months, even after accounting for cancellations (~12%).

      2. Mark.ca says:

        I was under the impression that InsideEvs counts registrations…so dealer inventory sould not matter.

        1. Pushmi-Pullyu says:

          My impression is that in general, when anyone talks about “sales” of new cars, it’s retail sales to actual customers, not wholesale sales to auto dealers.

          I’m certainly willing to be told I’m wrong.

        2. theflew says:

          Most manufactures report customer sales as well as fleet sales. The manufacture knows the difference between the sale to a dealer versus an end user sale. If by no other way the warranty is activated.

    6. BobG says:

      Someone please correct me if I’m wrong, but GM records a Bolt sale when it leaves the factory bound for the dealer. Tesla records the sale when all paperwork is finalized for delivery to the customer.

      There are widespread reports of unsold inventory piling up on dealership lots.

      So the actual sales of Bolts to paying customers is much smaller than what is indicated in the table. They may even be decelerating.

      Opening up deliveries nationwide may do little to increase end user sales and only serve to provide more asphalt on which to park unsold (to the end user) Bolts.

      1. theflew says:

        GM records the sales that we’re taking about when it’s sold to a customer/end user. There is a difference between the two sales. When it’s sold to the end user the warranty is activated. That is a process between the manufacturer and end user. A car could sit on a lot for years, but it’s sold with a new car warranty for the manufacturer.

  2. Hans Hammermill says:

    I’m really curious what BoltEV sales will be like next month for four reasons:

    * It became very clear this month that no one is getting a new Tesla in the $20-$30k range

    * One can get a new BoltEV in the $20-$30k range today 9with incentives, of course)

    * It appears Leaf 2.0 may not be a 200+ mile EV.

    * M3 has raised the general public’s acceptance of EVs (example: even my parents know about Tesla now and no longer think of an EV as a weird science project).

    1. bro1999 says:

      I think Bolt EV sales have been held back by fence sitters waiting for more Model 3 details and/or Leaf 1.5 details.

      Now that it seems clear no one is getting a $35k Model 3 anytime soon and Leaf 1.5 may not even have 200 miles of range, like you stated above, combined with increased availability and incentives for the Bolt, sales numbers may very well take off.

      1. Get Real says:

        Another ridiculous troll comment as usual.

        Bolt sales have been held back by too high pricing by GM.

        When I took my 2012 Volt last month in to have all its fluids flushed/changed at 100,000 miles, there were OVER 100 lonely Bolts on the lot.

        Went and talked to my EV soecialist salesman while I waited and he said GM needed to drop the price by at least $5,000 and have $250/month leade deals to clear the backlog.

        1. Get Real says:

          Sorry, should have been EV specialist.

        2. bro1999 says:

          You think 0 people have been waiting to pull the trigger until they saw more Model 3 details? Now THAT’S a ridiculous troll comment!

          1. ffbj says:

            Perhaps just a statistically insignificant number.

        3. menorman says:

          You’re not wrong on the pricing issue, but bro1999 is right about the other factors that have been holding back Bolt sales.

      2. jelloslug says:

        December is not that far away.

    2. scott franco says:

      A new Leaf at less than 200 miles range is an act of suicide for Nissan. They will have to discount it immediately to make that dog move, as they are with the present Leaf.

      If I were Nissan, I would hold back the car for a redesign.

      1. buu says:

        but if it is 40kWh 160+ miles range and DC fast charges upto 80%, than it’s equal to most cases to Bolt, give 3-5k discount and it sell better

      2. bro1999 says:

        Sad thing is the new Leaf is not even a total redesign. It’s just a severe revision of the current Leaf.

      3. unlucky says:

        They wouldn’t have to discount it if they just dropped the MSRP.

        I can’t see why there wouldn’t be a market for a LEAF model with 120 miles range at $25K. Alongside a longer range model.

        If they can make it work financially I think it would be a great move. LEAFs currently sell well at that price, why not make it official with the LEAF 1.2?

      4. menorman says:

        Not if it had the same MSRP as the outgoing model, especially with ProPilot hardware included.

      5. Justin says:

        I would take a more stylish Leaf with 160 – 180 miles over 238 Bolt. There’s probably only 5 times a year the difference matters and 360 when I’ll be happier in a Leaf

        1. WARREN says:

          Absolutely right about that. The leaf doesn’t scream econobox like the Bolt. Bet the drivers seat will be much more comfortable to boot. And it’s already guaranteed to have more sophisticated drivers aids. Even at 150 miles range, I’m taking the LEAF.

    3. Pushmi-Pullyu says:

      “It became very clear this month that no one is getting a new Tesla in the $20-$30k range”

      That was also clear last month, and last year, and the year before. So your “bullet point” there isn’t a point at all, but rather an irrelevancy.

      1. Asak says:

        I think he might have been referring to after rebate prices. Although I do think a few people may get a base model for $25K, but many of us are probably out of luck.

  3. Astros says:

    I really wanted to get a Bolt, but ended up getting a new Leaf last weekend instead. The discounts on the Leaf are so steep at the moment that an upgraded trim Leaf was almost exactly half the cost of an LT here in Washington, even with decent discounts on the Bolt.

    1. William says:

      A six year old design on the 2017 Nissan Leaf (with 30 kWh batt.) is half the final sale price of the Chevy Bolt LT (with 60 kWh batt.). It looks like July has put the Bolt, and its longer range, in the lead for the rest of 2017, among the two OEM ICE manufacturers. All it took Chevy, was to put more discounting into the mix, to leave Nissan to its launch of the 2018 Leaf, to possibly get back into a head to head sales competition. January 2018 sales figures should be interesting for GM and Nissan.

      1. Pushmi-Pullyu says:

        There is no question, none at all, that Nissan is doing well at capturing the bottom price segment of BEV sales. Unfortunately, they’re doing so only by letting the Leaf age to the point that it’s in danger of being obsolete. If they don’t put in an active thermal management system… well, some people will continue to buy them because the price is so much lower than other BEVs. But how long will Nissan be able to sell them in sufficient quantity to justify such a low price?

        At some point, assuming Nissan doesn’t want to fall so far behind in this “horse race” that it can never even hope to catch up, Nissan will have to field a new entry: one actually designed to compete with the current generation of PEVs (Plug-in EVs). That will even further depress sales of the Leaf.

        Frankly, I’d think Nissan would be embarrassed at the way it’s letting the Leaf age out of competition. But obviously they see it differently.

        1. William says:

          The Nissan Leaf “aging out of the competition” is hopefully not too “embarrassing” for Nissan and the model of the 2017 Leaf (30 kWh). When Lease prices, for a 3 yr/ 36k mi. Leaf SV, can be found for $150.00 /mo. The same Bolt Lease is approximately $100.00 / mo. MORE per month. That $3,500.00 + cash in the pocket, at the end of 3 years, is not a embarrassment, or bad deal, for suffering the 50% mile range Leaf limitation.

          Most people have less than a 100 mi. round trip daily commute. That is about the only place where the 2017 Leaf has any reel appeal, along with 24 month free fast charging.

  4. thebosz says:

    Man! Remember back when the Leaf and Volt finally came out way back in 2011? I remember how they weren’t “instant successes” and there were lots of people on “regular” car sites saying that the EV industry was doomed.

    And now we’re hitting over 100k before the end of the year!

    Are we starting to see the dramatic slope of the hockey stick?

    1. unlucky says:

      I think we are.

      Yes, my area is always ahead of the curve. But the number of people who I see now completely nonchalantly looking at EVs and PHEVs (EREVs really) is enormous.

      A lot of people who never expressed any interest in EVs at all, aren’t any kind of EV enthusiasts, are flatly stating they will get an EV next time out and are asking the kinds of questions which indicate they are serious. And more than one of my friends has done it. A friend just got a Bolt out of nowhere. Zero to Bolt in 2 months and he loves it, even though he only had 110V charging for almost a month. He now has 220V and loves it even more.

      He didn’t even ask about how to get various charging cards, he doesn’t need to. His wife has an ICE car for longer trips. It works, it was such an easy transition and it’ll only get easier as there are more choices in EVs and PHEVs so people don’t have to compromise on the shape of vehicle they want to get into an EV.

      1. Mark.ca says:

        I can completely relate to what you’re saying. I have an ev and over a year later my fast charger is still in a box in my garage uninstalled. I keep planing to do it but i honestly don’t need it.

        1. Asak says:

          The nice thing about a Level 2 charger is the convenience factor. You can be more relaxed about charging, knowing that if you need more range you can be full in only a couple hours (usually you don’t start with the battery entirely drained).

          That allows me to only charge my Leaf at night when it’s cooler. It also allows me to run my e-Golf from 70% to about 30%, knowing I don’t need 100% range most of the time, but if I do need it, I only need an hour or two of lead time to get it.

          You also basically can’t run out of power with a 240v charger, provided you stop by at home for even an hour between around town trips.

          With only 120v, I’d probably have to plug in basically every time the car is even slightly drained, and in a busy day it might get to the point where the car was running low. Also, with two EVs having to juggle the plug would be a bit of a hassle at slow charge speeds.

    2. Ziv says:

      Hockey stick in the sales numbers? I don’t know. The only really outstanding car appears to be the III, the Bolt and the Leaf to be are nice but kind of vanilla.
      A small 4 door sedan (Tesla III) just doesn’t work for a lot of people. And the legacy car makers haven’t really given us any really juicy choices. If the Volt was a bit roomier and sportier, maybe it could give the III a run for its money, but I don’t see that happening given the Volts shortcomings and the Chevy bowtie is like the kiss of death for a small car. Chevy has built horrible small cars for too long for the Volt and Bolt not to be tainted by that reputation. Maybe they can reverse that perception in time, but it won’t happen overnight.

    3. Pushmi-Pullyu says:

      “And now we’re hitting over 100k before the end of the year!

      “Are we starting to see the dramatic slope of the hockey stick?”

      I certainly hope so! But I predicted we were a few years ago, circa 2012-2013… and that turned out to be premature. I certainly hope this time we really are starting to see this disruptive tech revolution enter the strongly accelerating phase of the classic “S” curve, but as far as predicting that’s what we’re seeing… once burnt, twice shy.

  5. I want that Model 4 from Tesla!

    If a base Model 3 is about half the cost of a base Model S; and a Loaded Model 3 is again about half the cost of a loaded Model S; what should be the price of a Model 4 be, in another 8-10 Years?

    $18,000-$19,000?

    (Except…Elon said he did not think he would make such a Low Cost Tesla! Probably could not get the cost that low, or make enough for the 5 to 10 million needed per year at that price point! :÷(

    1. speculawyer says:

      I don’t think EVs will ever get down to such low prices for long range versions. (YOu can maybe pick up a ~100 mile commuter for that price eventually.)

      1. Asak says:

        I think they will, but it depends on what we are referring to as “eventually”. Ten years from now I could see batteries and electric drive being as cheap as current gas engines, so if we have cars at that price now, we should see EVs at that price then. Although there will be ten years of inflation by that point, so by that token maybe you’re technically correct.

        1. speculawyer says:

          I hope you are right. But I’m always a bit skeptical. The battery making process is already heavily automated. It is close to the price of the raw materials.

          There is some room for further price drops due to a more efficient raw materials supply source happening due to larger volumes, improved battery chemistries, etc.

      2. Pushmi-Pullyu says:

        “I don’t think EVs will ever get down to such low prices for long range versions.”

        Hmmm, “never” is a long time. Once we get solid state batteries, then EV batteries should enter the far more advantageous falling cost curve of Moore’s Law. I think it’s only a question of when, not if, we’ll see PEVs in all price segments costing less than comparable gasmobiles, even <$18,000 PEVs with 200+ miles of range.

        1. unlucky says:

          Solid state battery doesn’t mean lithographed silicon. There is no reason to think solid state batteries will follow Moore’s Law.

    2. ffbj says:

      Not enough margin. Besides with options it would cost 35k.

  6. FISHEV says:

    There’s no evidence that the 30 staged deliveries of the Model 3 to Tesla employees were actual sales.

    At this point, Tesla is not offering the Model 3 for sale to the public.

    1. unlucky says:

      Still not on fueleconomy.gov. No sign of a Monroney yet. A lot of things make it look like this was just assigning engineering validation cars to employees to test.

      But we’ll just have to get more info to really know either way for sure.

      Tesla’s quarterly report came out today I think. Would it be officially recorded in there?

      1. Tom says:

        I’ve been making this point for awhile now. I don’t believe Elon Musk used the word ‘sold’ but rather he ‘delivered’ 30 cars. I believe these are still what other manufacturers would label pre-production models that they give employees to drive around in real world for a couple months prior to full launch. As best I can find on the internet, they CANNOT sell a vehicle unless the EPA has certified it and determined its efficiency. And since this is public info by definition and the EPA never holds such info, there is very little room to come to any other logical conclusion other than they haven’t actually sold the cars. The employees might perhaps have a contract that says they WILL buy the car the second the EPA approves or something like that.

        Not that it matters in the long run. Tesla is still pretty awesome, but Musk plays fast and loose with words and declarations.

        1. menorman says:

          As best I can find on the internet, they CANNOT sell a vehicle unless the EPA has certified it and determined its efficiency.

          True, I remember that the lack of an EPA certification was holding up deliveries of the S 100D earlier this year.

        2. Pushmi-Pullyu says:

          “I don’t believe Elon Musk used the word ‘sold’ but rather he ‘delivered’ 30 cars.”

          Well, if you weren’t a serial Tesla bashing troll, you’d characterize that as a good thing instead of trying to paint it as a bad thing.

          Tesla has always used the term “delivered” in preference to “sold” to indicate when its cars are paid for. It’s a more precise term. Otherwise, Tesla’s ordering system of reservation then finalizing the order then production and finally delivery, with payment on delivery, might blur the issue of what counts as a sale, and what does not.

          Designating some cars as service loaners and demo units, which don’t get sold until later, would also blur the issue if Tesla didn’t specify “deliveries” to actual customers.

          1. unlucky says:

            Actually, they used the word “handover” as far as I can tell. Not sell or deliver.

            And for the record, just because you’ve taken money and signed papers does not mean you can account something as sold. If the money is attached to a promise to the customer (a sale) you can’t move the money to the sales revenue column until you transfer ownership of what they bought.

            So calling them sales wouldn’t muddy things in any significant way.

          2. cmina says:

            Here’s Elon’s remark about the Model 3 deliveries:

            @ 46:00

  7. trackdaze says:

    Thats over 180k rolling twelve months.

    Over 1%.

    1. JeffP says:

      You are correct. Total US vehicle sales in July were just over 1.4 million, so the market share for plug-in vehicles was about 1.1% in July.

  8. georgeS says:

    I’m not shocked by Model 3 pricing….and I can’t believe anyone IS. Even PMPU made a comment in an earlier thread that he was surprised the options were so high…..then comes back with

    “That (the pricing) was also clear last month, and last year, and the year before. So your “bullet point” there isn’t a point at all, but rather an irrelevancy.”

    I agree with his second statement. Heck from day 1 many people said : “you won’t be getting one for 35 K$…..now they find out they can’t get one RIGHT NOW for 35K and they are shocked and are going to Bolt for a BoltEV.??? Huh

    I just looked at Tesla CPO’s and the cheapest used S with gen 1 AP is high 60’s…for a 2014.

    What are you guys whining about. You can get an Tesla with 310 miles range fully loaded for 56,500$. The only other EV that has that range is a 100K$ P100.

    1. Taser54 says:

      Most reservation holders are not hanging out on this forum. To ascribe such knowledge is a mistake.

    2. HVACman says:

      A whole lot of people reserved expecting the Model 3 to be the “every-man” priced long-range EV with some Tesla-style. The 21st Century “Model T”. $27,500 after tax credits is right at the high-end of that price.

      The Model 3 has been confirmed that it is targeting a slightly more wealthy class and mostly guys. Who else cares a whit if a car’s max speed is 140 mph and has a 5.1 0-60? Not even remotely important for a regular driving experience. That speaks pure testosterone.

      1. FISHEV says:

        “A whole lot of people reserved expecting the Model 3 to be the “every-man” priced long-range EV with some Tesla-style.”

        Very true. My neighbor and I both solar panel going EV people. He’s been planning getting a Volt at the end of the year but saw the Tesla stuff and was saying hey for $35K maybe I’ll get a Bolt. But that turned in to $60,000 pretty quickly just with range, paint and dynamic cruise and warranty/service extension.

        Volt suits him perfectly, he’ll be all electric most of the time and when he needs to go on a long trip, he just goes.

      2. Pushmi-Pullyu says:

        HVACman said:

        “A whole lot of people reserved expecting the Model 3 to be the ‘every-man’ priced long-range EV with some Tesla-style.”

        Yes, a “whole lot of people” have been engaging in wishful thinking. A $35,000 MSRP car is considerably more expensive than a sell-through “everyman” car.

        As I’ve pointed out before, the best-selling cars (not light trucks) in the USA are all priced under $25k. $35k isn’t even in the same ballpark.

        A “whole lot of people” didn’t want to listen.

    3. Spider-Dan says:

      If you told people that Model 3 would be a $50k+ car, most of them would have never been interested in the first place.

      It’s like saying that a Hellcat is a great deal because you can’t get another 700HP car for $65k. If you don’t have $65k, that doesn’t matter.

    4. Pushmi-Pullyu says:

      georgeS said:

      “Even PMPU made a comment in an earlier thread that he was surprised the options were so high…..then comes back with

      “[quoting PMPU] That (the pricing) was also clear last month, and last year, and the year before. So your ‘bullet point’ there isn’t a point at all, but rather an irrelevancy.[unquote]”

      You pulled a quote from me out of context. My comment about the price being well known for years in advance was specifically in response to a comment about the base price of $35,000, and only about that.

      And yes, I was quite surprised the options were priced so high. I’m not going to pretend that I didn’t make a mistake there. I’ve had to adjust my thinking; Tesla is pricing the TM3 to compete with such cars as the BMW 3-Series and the Audi A4, not the Chevy Bolt EV or the Nissan Leaf 2.0.

  9. FISHEV says:

    “If a base Model 3 is about half the cost of a base Model S; and a Loaded Model 3 is again about half the cost of a loaded Model S; what should be the price of a Model 4 be?”

    The smaller Tesla SUV should be about $6,000 more than the Model 3, so $36,200 base delivered for Model 3 and $42,200 base delivered for Model Y.

    The the $6K is the differential now between TS an TX.

  10. FISHEV says:

    Chevy and Tesla are neck and neck in PHEV sales. Good for US industry.

    1. speculawyer says:

      I’m pretty sure Tesla’s PHEV sales are zero. But I assume you meant plug-in sales.

      1. FISHEV says:

        I’m pretty sure there are too many abbreviations for EV’s so PHEV for all of them. One abbreviation to rule them all.

        1. menorman says:

          …PiEV?

        2. Spider-Dan says:

          There is already one abbreviation to cover them all:

          “EV”

          1. Pushmi-Pullyu says:

            More specifically, InsideEVs covers primarily PEVs: Plug-in EVs, or more specifically, street-legal PEV passenger cars and motorcycles. And not EVs in general, which would include everything from diesel-electric train locomotives to e-bikes… and even such things as those dangerous “hoverboards” if you want to be all-inclusive.

            As usual, FISHEV is just trolling.

    2. Loboc says:

      Tesla doesn’t make a PHEV (Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicle). They only make BEV. Battery Electric Vehicle.

      1. Tom says:

        You are right obviously because Tesla’s only have ONE way to propel themselves so by definition not hybrid since the word means two things crossed up. Hybrid corn for instance.

        However, what’s interesting is that Nissan also insists that their Note e-power is NOT a hybrid. It’s note a hybrid because it only has one way to propel itself…via the electric motor. It can’t be a PHEV because there’s no plug so no P. It by definition is not a hybrid so no H. That leaves you with EV. Their insistance is that it is an electrified vehicle whose only propulsion method is electricity by definition requires including the E in EV. And certainly it’s a V. So it’s an EV.

        So I suppose technically they are right, however the general public thought on EVs is the a BEV is ‘pure’ electric, a PHEV is a lesser thing that also has a gas engine, and that a hybrid is a lesser form of PHEV, i.e. a PHEV without a P.

        1. Pushmi-Pullyu says:

          I will never understand why some EV “purists” keep insisting that the term “EV”, or “electric vehicle”, should apply only to BEVs. If that were so, then we wouldn’t need the more specific term “BEV” for Battery-Electric Vehicle. “EV” is a general term, not a specific one.

          The Nissan Note e-Power is a HEV, or Hybrid EV. As you say, it’s not a plug-in, and therefore isn’t a PHEV. But yes, it’s an EV. That is, it is designed and built to be propelled entirely by electric motors at least part of the time, just like all other EVs.

  11. speculawyer says:

    So close to 16,000 per month.

    It is amazing to think that in a few months the Tesla Model 3 could be selling more than EVERY other plug-in car COMBINED.

    1. Pushmi-Pullyu says:

      Well, more than all others combined in the USA. I’m not so sure the TM3 will ever outsell all other PEVs sold in China.

  12. John Lane says:

    I should point out that there is a false comparison between the Bolt and M3. The M3 is nearly two feet longer, a foot longer wheelbase and is wider. Then there is the technology engineered into the M3 which the Bolt cannot compete with. Then there is the Tesla charging infrastructure which the Bolt also lacks. Other than the comparable base price and range, they have little else in common. Based upon media reporting the Bolt is exactly what you might expect from an ICE manufacturer. No surprises. The M3 on the other hand has evoked in virtually every driver something you rarely hear of in a base model sedan. There is visceral feeling with the M3 which leaves them in awe. This is why the M3 will succeed and in less than four years, the plug will be pulled on the Bolt.

    1. unlucky says:

      What is the virtue in a car which is 20 inches longer but has similar interior space and less trunk space? Is this somehow supposed to be a positive thing?

      Tesla has a serious frunk problem. They need to figure out how to get all the lard and wasted space out of their cars. If they don’t then they will run into serious problems when customers compare their vehicles to other offerings which are coming on line.

      Not sure where you got the idea that drivers are agog over the base Tesla Model 3. No driver has driven one. At least none that has reported in the press. Every vehicle so far shown/delivered is a $50K+ version.

      1. Pushmi-Pullyu says:

        unlucky said:

        “No driver has driven one [Model 3].”

        Unlucky, your denial here verges on psychosis.

        [snark] I’m sure your denial would come as a great surprise to everyone who has attended or watched either of the Model 3 “reveal” events.

        “At least none that has reported in the press.”

        I’m sure that will come as a great surprise to the Motor Trend reviewer who wrote this enthusiastic love letter of a driving review: [/snark]

        http://www.motortrend.com/cars/tesla/model-3/2018/exclusive-tesla-model-3-first-drive-review/

        1. unlucky says:

          ‘Not sure where you got the idea that drivers are agog over the base Tesla Model 3. No driver has driven one. At least none that has reported in the press. Every vehicle so far shown/delivered is a $50K+ version.’

          I said base model. It’s right there in black and white. You edited my text to make it say other than it said.

          The review you linked is of a $59,500 version, it is not of the base model.

          You insult me over your own error. You have wronged me.

    2. Asak says:

      The Bolt got good reviews too, and that’s who we’re talking about right, reviewers? The average person hasn’t driven a Model 3 at all. Also the reviewers are almost certainly not being given a base model.

      The charging infrastructure is a huge plus for Tesla, but it’s not important for everyone. I’m personally reconsidering how important that is myself.

      The truth is, for around town 200 miles is more than enough for my needs (even 100 miles is enough). For long distance driving, renting a car is so easy and cheap that there’s no point in paying more for long range given how rarely I will use it (like once per year, twice at the outside). I can just grab a car from the local Hertz only about a mile away. I could already drive north to Canada in any EV with DCFC, even a short range one (although it would be a pain, recharging every hour).

      So, anyway, that’s a plus in Tesla’s column, but I’m not sure how big of a plus it is for the average person.

      I don’t really understand the attitude some people seem to have about EVs made by regular car manufacturers. The fate of the Model 3 and the Bolt are largely linked. If the Bolt really ends up flopping, then Tesla probably ends up bankrupt because it will reflect lack of demand for EVs in general. If you want Tesla to do well, you want all EVs to do well.

      1. FISHEV says:

        ‘”If you want Tesla to do well, you want all EVs to do well.”

        So true.

    3. Pushmi-Pullyu says:

      “…there is the technology engineered into the M3 which the Bolt cannot compete with. Then there is the Tesla charging infrastructure which the Bolt also lacks. Other than the comparable base price and range, they have little else in common.”

      Since the 200+ mile BEV market has so few offerings, it’s inevitable that both the media and shoppers will compare the two. I agree that Tesla most definitely does not intend the TM3 to merely compete with the Bolt EV; it’s aiming at competing primarily with gasmobiles, not other PEVs (Plug-in EVs). But that won’t stop people from comparing them, so long as there are so few long-range BEVs on the market.

  13. Texas FFE says:

    I wanted a Bolt EV but all the deals I found were a little too rich my blood so I went with a 2017 Focus Electric. I’m still paying on my wife’s 2015 Fusion Energi and I didn’t want two big consecutive car payments. In a few years when the Fusion is paid off I’ll try again for a longer range BEV, maybe the 300 mile SUV BEV Ford has been promising.

    1. speculawyer says:

      If you don’t mind me asking…were the dealerships willing to cut the price on the Bolt at all? Apparently sales have been weaker than anticipated and there’s some incentive to discount now.

      1. Asak says:

        When I looked into leasing one toward the end of May there were discounts, but the end result ended up still being a bit too high for my liking. You’re definitely getting better deals now than you would have at the beginning of the year, but it’s not quite there yet.

        If you’re willing to settle for a blah color such as black, with no DCFC then you can get a really great deal. As soon as you add DCFC and a color of your choosing the lease costs goes up a lot. Unfortunately, I feel that not having DCFC mooted a lot of the Bolt’s potential. With DCFC it is potentially a long range vehicle. Without it, it’s local only, and in that case I can make do with a 100 mile EV.

        1. speculawyer says:

          Yeah, I think it is downright stupid not to make the DCFC standard.

          That really goes to show how even the most base stripped down Model 3 at $35K is better than most EVs since it comes with navigation, fast-charging, etc. standard.

          1. Pushmi-Pullyu says:

            “Yeah, I think it is downright stupid not to make the DCFC standard.”

            I completely agree. Sure, I can see from GM’s viewpoint, the Bolt EV is meant primarily as a city car, and the current state of public EV fast-chargers is such that only Tesla’s cars are well supported for long distance travel. But within just a few years, a BEV that lacks built-in support for DCFC is going to look painfully outdated.

            Seems to me as bad a decision as an auto maker deciding “Well, many or most of our customers will rarely if ever use the back seat of the car, so let’s just leave it out and save money.”

          2. William says:

            The “etc.”is the real Tesla game changer. Can’t wait for Tesla Model Y.

      2. Texas FFE says:

        There definitely are not any discounts in Texas yet and our state rebate is still questionable. Like I said, I didn’t want two large car payments so I was really only considering a lease. The Texas Chevy dealer I talked to gave terrible lease terms, high money factor and only a $2,250 rebate.

        I got better lease terms from a dealer in Maryland but it still wasn’t great and I still would have had to get the car shipped. The payments for my “certified” 2017 FFE ended up being much, much lower than any Bolt EV lease deal I was offered. I would have bought a used or certified Bolt EV if I could have found one at a decent price but the used car prices on the Bolt EV are still very close to the new car prices and don’t even reflect the &7,500 federal tax credit.

        I really like the Bolt EV but it’s still not as much car as I wanted. I would liked to have gotten adaptive cruise control like my Fusion Energi has and some real towing capacity. I might have been willing to pay the higher price if the Bolt EV was more car.

  14. Kdawg says:

    Looks like the US plug-in percentage is:

    15,607 / 1,416,743 = 1.1%

    Yay.. we’re over 1% 😀

    1. speculawyer says:

      If Tesla can crank up manufacturing, it might not be more than a few months before we blow past 2%.

      And if that happens, I think every automaker will take a hard look and work on their EV plans if they have not already.

    2. Pushmi-Pullyu says:

      I got overly excited about reports from various European nations indicating percentages closer to 2% than 1%, and foolishly assumed this meant the international percentage is higher than the domestic American percentage.

      Sadly, at least according to Wikipedia, the U.S. figure is slightly higher than the international one. 🙁

  15. HVACman says:

    Jay – enjoy this month. This may be the ONLY calendar month that Tesla hands you a rock-solid number of Tesla Model 3 units delivered without you having to do some fancy data-extraction, ouija board consulting, and Magic-8 ball rolling:)

    1. Kdawg says:

      Honda can enjoy it too. First (only?) time the Clarity will outsell Tesla Model 3.

  16. offib says:

    Having hopes for the Mitsubishi i-MiEV like;

    1. William says:

      “Go Bannana”, has a some reel appeal for us fans of the Mitsubishi Jelly Bean. RIP N.A. Mitsubishi i-MiEV.

  17. Don Zenga says:

    There are 5 more weeks to Nissan Leaf reveal. Leaf is still the #1 in EV sales and the upcoming model could help it retain the lead with a better range and spacious interior and an affordable 30K price tag.

    This will kick in the real competition.

  18. Rick says:

    Don’t believe ANYTHING GM Says.

    1. unlucky says:

      These are insideevs’ figures, not GMs.

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