Is This Tesla Timeline Accurate Through 2022?


Tesla Model S

Tesla Model S

Predicting the future of an automaker ain’t easy.

Tesla Model s Supercharger

Model S Supercahrging

Predicting Tesla’s future is even harder.

Where will Tesla Motors be in 2022?  And what will it take to get there?  Hmm…

In the automotive world, anything can and often does happen, so predicting the next 9 years for Tesla comes with the risk that you’ll almost certainly be wrong in some aspects.

Regardless, Tesla Motors forum user JZ13 posted a “Tesla Timeline” through 2022 and it’s so damn well thought out that we had to share it.

Tesla Timeline -JZ13

In light of the recent sell-off in the stock I remind myself and other Tesla fans to focus on the big picture. I began to imagine what Tesla will be accomplishing over the next 10 years. I came up with something like this:

2014: 50,000 Model S sales including Asia and right-hand drive countries; 5,000 Model X sales; Supercharger network covering 75% of population in the developed world; limited battery-swap stations open; TSLA $350

2015: Q1 Model E prototype revealed; All wheel drive Model S revealed; Supercharger network mostly built out; Tesla/Panasonic battery giga-factory announced; 70,000 Model S sales; 40,000 Model X sales; TSLA $650

2016: Improved battery pack options for Model S and X – range up to 500 miles; giga-factory opens; Superchargers upgraded to 200 kw; 90,000 Model S sales; 80,000 Model X sales; TSLA $950

2017: Model Y (GenIII crossover) prototype released; Model S mid-cycle refresh designs released; Mercedes adds more Tesla-built drivetrains to their line-up of cars; 50,000 Model E sales; 100,000 Model S and 90,000 Model X sales; TSLA $1,300

Model X

Model X

2018: Autopilot feature rolls out; announcement of new auto factory to be built in Europe; Superchargers upgraded to 250 kw; 150,000 Model E sales; 100,000 Model S sales; 90,000 Model X sales; TSLA $1,700

2019: Elon retires as Tesla CEO but remains Chairman; Model R (roadster) and Model Z (exotic) prototypes released using GenIII platform; European factory opens; Toyota adds Tesla-built drivetrains to their line-up; 2nd battery gigafactory to be built in Asia; Model X mid-cycle design refresh; 400,000 Model E; 50,000 Model Y; 110,000 Model S; 100,000 Model X; TSLA $2,200

Future Tesla "Giga" Lithium-Ion Battery Facility To Be Located On Land Recently Bought Beside Production Line?

Future Tesla “Giga” Lithium-Ion Battery Facility To Be Located On Land Recently Bought Beside Production Line?

2020: Model S 2.0 prototype released; 2nd gigafactory opens; GM begins to use Tesla-built drivetrains in their cars; 2 new auto factories announced – 1 in U.S. and 1 in Asia; Superchargers now get 50% charge in 5 minutes; 750,000 Model E; 200,000 Model Y; 120,000 Model S; 110,000 Model X; TSLA $2,900

2021: Model P (GenIII platform) pick-up truck and Model L (large pick-up truck) prototypes released; 2 new factories opened; Model E mid-cycle design updates released; improved battery pack options for all models extend range; 1.3 million Model E; 800,000 Model Y; 120,000 Model S; 110,000 Model X; 25,000 Model R; 1,000 Model Z; TSLA $3,800

2022: Most automakers are now using Tesla-built drivetrains and they pay Tesla so that these cars can access the Tesla Supercharger network. Tesla has added hundreds of stations to accommodate mass adoption; 3 more auto factories and 3 more battery giga-factories are announced spread between U.S., Europe and Asia; Gen IV platform announced with the Model C (compact) prototype being released. Model C will sell for $25,000. Tesla sells millions of cars with margins double the average automaker due to direct sales model and zero marketing budget. Tesla is the #1 supplier of fleet cars for taxi’s, police, delivery vehicles, etc.; TSLA $5,000

Let the floodgates now open…

Source: Tesla Motors Forum

Category: Tesla


19 responses to "Is This Tesla Timeline Accurate Through 2022?"
  1. JK says:

    Pure. Fantasy.

  2. Anon says:

    I wish Tesla well. But I too, think this is a rather rosey piece of futurism. 🙂

  3. Anthony says:

    Where on earth is this person coming up with the stock prices? Maybe that’s the point, those valuations are out of this world.

    I’d be very skeptical of companies like GM and Toyota using Tesla as the OEM for the battery pack and drive train. Its not like Cummings or something with diesel powertrains.

    1. Jouni Valkonen says:

      Yes, these $194 stock price already assumed that Tesla will sell more than 500k premium cars by the end of the decade. Now stock bubble collapsed, because there is great uncertainty on battery supply and Musk implicitly said that Tesla needs a gigafactory in order to move forward.

      However I do not think that the production timeline is that unrealistic. One million cars is more than possible by 2020. But we must put things into perspective that Audi sells two million cars and Toyota sells fair share of 86 million total annual car production capacity. By 2020 global car sales are more than 100 million as more and more ICE cars are prematurely put out of order due to increasing gasoline prices.

  4. Bonaire says:

    You’re 2014 seems incorrect so I stopped. Model X will not sell in any number until 2015. And I suspect sales flattening of Model S leading to 32,000 sales in 2014 at best. RH doesn’t hit the UK until April.

    1. Jouni Valkonen says:

      Bonaire, you are incompetent to judge Tesla’s 2014 Model X sales. Model X due to come into production in Q4 2014. Model S sales are probably around 40k due to battery supply problems.

  5. The only thing he’s missing is the flux capacitor option in 2025. Oh yeah and how in 2030 Elon merges Tesla with Space X and Tesla cars will then be capable of taking a weekend trip to Mars.

    1. MTN Ranger says:

      Somewhere along the way the company name changes to Weyland Industries; then merges with Yutani Corporation…

  6. ModernMarvelFan says:

    Just look at the production volume and stock price, you will know that this person is a Tesla fan but an idiot at stock investment and running a company at the same time….

  7. MrEnergyCzar says:

    That share price sounds like Berkshire Hathaway, at least in the early days when it was less than $10,000…


  8. Ocean Railroader says:

    What type of crack are they smoking when they thought this up in that is extremely unrealistic on about ten levels.

    Personally I think in terms of what will happen to Tesla next year is that they will build anywhere from 35,000 to 42,000 cars over all next year. And as for that I think the demand for the model S will devour all that up in terms of munching up the world’s supply of lithium batteries. Such as for the next two to three years till 2015 Tesla will be very limited at 35,000 to 45,000 cars do to the tightening supply of lithium batteries. The reason for this is that it will take Panasonic around two to three years to build new assembly lines and in a lot of cases new factories from the ground up along with converting their old ones. At around 2016 the model S and X will keep devouring up the global battery supply and their most likely not be more then 45,000 to 55,000 cars. This might go higher only if Panasonic fast tracks a major battery factory building boom which will most likely not happen instead Panasonic will do a slow and steady battery production ramp up a few percentages points a month as new battery lines come on line.

    In terms of the 2016 though 2022 I still don’t think Tesla will build more then a 100,000 cars do to the batteries supply being very limited and the fact that the model E will most likely come out in 2017 and even then the first year it will only make 20,000 to 30,000 of them do to the more effort being put into the more profitable model X and Model S. They might however might try to get a pick up truck out sooner do to the high value of pick up trucks in terms of pricing.

    At around 2022 if Tesla is still afloat or is not killed off by some unforeseen event I think they will be making about 100,000 to 150,000 cars in the best case.

    As for the stock price I think it will most likely be around $250 by the time 2020 rolls around but most likely it will settle at $120 or $150 do to the Panasonic Battery storage and the slow roll out of Tesla raising car production.

    1. Jouni Valkonen says:

      It takes just few months to less than year to double the current global battery supply capacity. The only limiting factor is to try to predict the evolution of extremely volatile EV markets. Battery manufacturers are fully aware of solar boom that lead into significant over production capacity and all the weaker manufacturers were forced into bankruptcy and stronger ones barely made enough profit to pay the debts.

      But if it seems, that EV sales are growing steadily at three digits annual growth rates, then it is rather safe bet for battery manufacturers to invest on capacity.

      We must remember that investing on battery manufacturing capacity is extremely cheap. The pay back period is just less than 5 years. But if Panasonic expands their production capacity into one billion cells that could satisfy Tesla’s short term needs and Tesla is simultaneously investing own gigafactory, because it is more profitable to produce batteries on the house rather than outsource them. Then it might need that it is hard decision for Panasonic to invest on manufacturing capacity.

      Fast growing markets, where the unit cost is low (e.g. batteries, cell phones, solar panels), are usually not supply limited, but the over production is more typical concern. Auto markets are slower to react and there the production capacity is easier to match the demand. Tesla is however exception because it has unnatural demand and growth potential, because there is no competition in long range EVs, because traditional car manufacturers do not want to lose their gathered expertise on ICE vehicles.

  9. Ocean Railroader says:

    I have a idea for a EV news story about OPEC cutting oil production and Oil demand that I have been keeping track of lately.

    1. Jouni Valkonen says:

      That that OPEC can control the oil price, should be reason enough to tax heavily on gasoline — even in United States.

      1. Ocean Railroader says:

        What’s ironic about the idea of taxing heavily on gasoline is that the US has some of the world’s cheapest gasoline and some of the world’s highest EV sales and the world’s largest population of EV’s while in Europe they tax the Bluegill out of gasoline and it’s $10.00 a gallon and EV sales have not really been that big anywhere else besides Norway.

        1. Nate says:

          Not quite that simple.

          Yes, gas is more in the EU, but there are big differences between where you are at. You brought up Norway, which IS close to $10.00 a gallon, but many countries are less. Germany is around 8 and Spain is around 7. Places in Easter Europe its closer to 6 That’s for Gas. Diesel is a less than gas on average in the EU, and you have many more small efficient diesels that make your miles per $ (or whatever currency) less than your typical U.S. car/suv.

          I would figure the difference in sales has to do with Norway’s goal to reach 50,000 zero emission vehicles, and the incentives they put in place to make that happen.

          The US does NOT have high EV sales per capita outside of their top markets. Like Europe, sales generally follow where the ownership advantages are highest which is typically in states with high incentives like Georgia, Washington and California. For example, in WA you would pay 8-9% sales tax on a conventional car that you wouldn’t with an EV. Add in the Federal credit, and you end up with a lower ownership cost vs. a conventional car or hybrid. In states with weak incentives sales are typically weaker. We are really no different than Europe.

          Norway is an early leader, but others will follow with incentives. More models are coming into markets that they previously were not.

  10. Tom says:

    Today’s share price relfects that of a major automaker; Tesla would need to sell more than just cars to achieve some of these latter predictions. Also, I suspect that plug in hybrids will dominate the market as new much more efficient generators and natural gas fuel cells are introduced. Tesla will likely incorporate these technologies as well as the other automakers but, lose some of the competitive edge it has, with regards to range.

  11. Douglas says:

    2050: Texas still won’t allow Tesla to sell cars in their state.The rest of the world is still laughing at them.