Is This Tesla Timeline Accurate Through 2022?
Predicting the future of an automaker ain’t easy.
Predicting Tesla’s future is even harder.
Where will Tesla Motors be in 2022? And what will it take to get there? Hmm…
In the automotive world, anything can and often does happen, so predicting the next 9 years for Tesla comes with the risk that you’ll almost certainly be wrong in some aspects.
Regardless, Tesla Motors forum user JZ13 posted a “Tesla Timeline” through 2022 and it’s so damn well thought out that we had to share it.
Tesla Timeline -JZ13
In light of the recent sell-off in the stock I remind myself and other Tesla fans to focus on the big picture. I began to imagine what Tesla will be accomplishing over the next 10 years. I came up with something like this:
2014: 50,000 Model S sales including Asia and right-hand drive countries; 5,000 Model X sales; Supercharger network covering 75% of population in the developed world; limited battery-swap stations open; TSLA $350
2015: Q1 Model E prototype revealed; All wheel drive Model S revealed; Supercharger network mostly built out; Tesla/Panasonic battery giga-factory announced; 70,000 Model S sales; 40,000 Model X sales; TSLA $650
2016: Improved battery pack options for Model S and X – range up to 500 miles; giga-factory opens; Superchargers upgraded to 200 kw; 90,000 Model S sales; 80,000 Model X sales; TSLA $950
2017: Model Y (GenIII crossover) prototype released; Model S mid-cycle refresh designs released; Mercedes adds more Tesla-built drivetrains to their line-up of cars; 50,000 Model E sales; 100,000 Model S and 90,000 Model X sales; TSLA $1,300
2018: Autopilot feature rolls out; announcement of new auto factory to be built in Europe; Superchargers upgraded to 250 kw; 150,000 Model E sales; 100,000 Model S sales; 90,000 Model X sales; TSLA $1,700
2019: Elon retires as Tesla CEO but remains Chairman; Model R (roadster) and Model Z (exotic) prototypes released using GenIII platform; European factory opens; Toyota adds Tesla-built drivetrains to their line-up; 2nd battery gigafactory to be built in Asia; Model X mid-cycle design refresh; 400,000 Model E; 50,000 Model Y; 110,000 Model S; 100,000 Model X; TSLA $2,200
2020: Model S 2.0 prototype released; 2nd gigafactory opens; GM begins to use Tesla-built drivetrains in their cars; 2 new auto factories announced – 1 in U.S. and 1 in Asia; Superchargers now get 50% charge in 5 minutes; 750,000 Model E; 200,000 Model Y; 120,000 Model S; 110,000 Model X; TSLA $2,900
2021: Model P (GenIII platform) pick-up truck and Model L (large pick-up truck) prototypes released; 2 new factories opened; Model E mid-cycle design updates released; improved battery pack options for all models extend range; 1.3 million Model E; 800,000 Model Y; 120,000 Model S; 110,000 Model X; 25,000 Model R; 1,000 Model Z; TSLA $3,800
2022: Most automakers are now using Tesla-built drivetrains and they pay Tesla so that these cars can access the Tesla Supercharger network. Tesla has added hundreds of stations to accommodate mass adoption; 3 more auto factories and 3 more battery giga-factories are announced spread between U.S., Europe and Asia; Gen IV platform announced with the Model C (compact) prototype being released. Model C will sell for $25,000. Tesla sells millions of cars with margins double the average automaker due to direct sales model and zero marketing budget. Tesla is the #1 supplier of fleet cars for taxi’s, police, delivery vehicles, etc.; TSLA $5,000
Let the floodgates now open…
Source: Tesla Motors Forum