International Energy Agency Predicts Electric Vehicle Segment Will Grow From 1 Million Today To 150 Million By 2040



Chevrolet Bolt In LA - Image Credit: InsideEVs / Tom Moloughney

Chevrolet Bolt In LA – Image Credit: InsideEVs / Tom Moloughney

The International Energy Agency has release some data showing that gasoline demand has peaked globally. According to the IEA, oil demand will continue to rise for a bit, but demand for gas has now peaked thanks to the rise of electric cars (and more fuel-efficient ICE vehicles).

Tesla "Drive To Believe"

Tesla “Drive To Believe”

IEA says that 1 out of 4 barrels of oil consumed worldwide are for gasoline, so with the peak here and a decline predicted in coming years, the oil industry will suffer.

IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol stated (via Bloombers):

“Electric cars are happening,” (the director) said in an interview in London, adding that their number will rise from little more than 1 million last year to more than 150 million by 2040.

Editor’s note:  That “1 million” figures has quickly been outdated since the September 2015 study got underway, and illustrates the point that ‘EVs are happening’. By our “unoffical count”, we have the worldwide plug-in sales at some 1,891,000 deliveries (with partial data for November 2016now in).

That figure, according to Birol, will increase to more than 150 million by 2040. If that prediction pans out to be true, then gas consumption will fall of fdramatically, so much so that the IEA wonders if the industry as it stands will be able to survive.

Bring on the electric cars…goodbye gas!

Source: Bloomberg

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14 Comments on "International Energy Agency Predicts Electric Vehicle Segment Will Grow From 1 Million Today To 150 Million By 2040"

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People just don’t realize how much $$$$ a hybrid saves.
Even the lowly Honda Insight saves $4,000 every 50,000 miles.

So, even an expansion of just hybrids caps Fuel Prices for Everyone.

Hmm, Bout 15 months behind the times, this study is as the surging Global Electric Fueled Vehicle: EV PHEV EREV, Industry eclipsed 1 million cumulative sales, September, 2015 and will pass 2 million later this month!

All these and more coming in just less then 60 months from November, 2011 when the Chevy Volt Extended Range Electric Vehicle and the Nissan LEAF Electric Car ended very limited (6 states & District of Columbia through 07.2011)US beta sales and 50 state national sales began!


Thomas J. Thias



Just as profound is that one million houses a year will be going off-grid in 5 to 10 years – when used 60 KWH batteries are removed from used EV’s and re-purposed for home battery storage.

This will be a huge and disruptive market.

The Electric utilities have to realize that they will loose their 100 year monopoly – especially if they continue to raise their prices to cover the huge infrastructure maintenance costs they want to pass on-to us.

If I have a used BOLT battery in 8 years with maybe 40 KWH remaining, I can go off grid completely with a roof top of solar cells.

Some rough numbers:

There are a billion cars on the road now.

That number will be two billion by 2040.

150 million is 13.3% of 2 billion.

Our fossil fuel consumption needs to be approximately zero by then, if we are to survive as a species.

I respectfully suggest that trying to save the happy motoring lifestyle is a complete waste of our very limited time.

The IEA have a habit of under forecasting anything that isn’t a barrel of oil or a shipload of coal.

The 150 million is barely a flatline 10mill (roughly 10% market share)per annum from 2030.

what it means however is this collosal shift is now significant enough it cannot be rounded down to zero on an analyst report.

A switch to all electric vehicles, and all renewable power are essential, but not close to adequate. We need an honest discussion of reducing our consumption (smaller, slower vehicles, shorter, fewer trips, smaller houses, gardens not lawns, local jobs, etc.) if we are to have any chance of surviving.

> Our fossil fuel consumption needs to be approximately zero by then, if we are to survive as a species.

Start the eulogy, as it’s not going to happen. bye bye humanity, it was nice knowing you. 😉

We will reduce carbon as much as we can then deal with it. Saying our species is doomed with absolutely no proof is just hysteria.

The transition to EVs won’t be linear. Once EVs are “good enough” meaning a good range at an affordable price EVs will take off like crazy! I expect this to happen around 2022-2025, at that time we will have 300 mile cars for around $20k-$25k and even cheaper but shorter range cars.

A LOT can happen in 24 years, I hope they are right. Just PHEV with bio fuels can get cleaner air and less imported oil.

If we suppose a linear growth rate, it means that over the next 24 years, the annual growth rate will be around 14%. The IEA is extremely conservative… World wide this year it is closer to 50% and 2017 with the Bolt, Prime, M3… I doubt it will be less. A few years much higher than their low average can change a lot the final number. An average growth rate of 25%, keep in mind the weight of the next few years is much more important than the ones close to 2040, gives nearly 900M. Considering the impact of such a fleet of EVs on the oil price, maybe that’s why the IEA is so conservative…

The problem is the rise of new car markets. While China and India are working the infrastructure end to make it feasible to adopt plug-ins, we’re looking at hundreds of millions of cars being sold in other countries where a barely-middle class has just arisen that can just barely afford a gas-engined car. Something will have to be done to change that outcome – either make those cars EVs, or create a transportation system not based on traditional car ownership.

It’s all about money, china and India knows from a macro economic sence that a semi finite amount of lithium equals more then all the oil it will not have to buy, so all over time currency will be rated on the delta of saving of not buying oil, the green house is just sounds good , but the real math in what lithium saves a country from buying oil 45m every tanker not imported is a great deal!!!

2040, really? Underestimate. I estimate 2025.