India Favors Electric Over Hybrids

JUN 4 2017 BY MARK KANE 43

Reuters reports of strong EV incentives on the horizon for India (finally), as one of the most influential government think-tanks has released a 90-page blueprint with a full set of recommendations.

India

The plan targets a switch of the entire country to electric drive by 2032 through:

  • lowering taxes and interest rates for loans on electric vehicles
  • capping sales of conventional cars
  • openning (with government help) a battery plant by the end of 2018 (250 MWh with potential for 1 GWh by 2020).
  • use of tax revenues from the sale of petrol and diesel vehicles to set up charging stations

Some of the solutions are even to be mapped from China as an example.

Late to the “green party”, India apparently will jump over hybrids, focusing instead on all-electric models.

“The recommendations in a draft report by Niti Aayog, the planning body headed by Prime Minister Narendra Modi, are aimed at electrifying all vehicles in the country by 2032 and will likely shape a new mobility policy, said government and industry sources.”

For sure it will not be easy for India to succeed with such ambitious plans, as EV sales and adoption in the country is low.  Mahindra & Mahindra yet remains the only electric car maker in the country.

“India, in 2015, launched a scheme called Faster Adoption and Manufacturing of Hybrid and Electric Vehicles under which it offered incentives for clean fuel technology cars to boost their sales to up to 7 million vehicles by 2020.

Despite incentives as high as 140,000 rupees ($2,175) on some cars the scheme has made little progress, with the sales of electric and hybrid cars making up only a fraction of the 3 million passenger vehicles sold in India in 2016.

The scheme, which expired on March 31, has now been extended by six months while future policy is worked out, two government officials said. Lack of clarity on policy risks delaying investment in the auto sector, one official added.”

source: Reuters

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43 Comments on "India Favors Electric Over Hybrids"

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Prad Bitt
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Prad Bitt

Hybrids are a scam. .. have always been a way to delay the shift to electrics.

Oswald
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Oswald

Yeah who would want to cut their fuel consumption in half? A Prius is cleaner than a Leaf in Colorado, grid cleanliness matters.

Devin Serpa
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Devin Serpa

Only if you live in a state that REQUIRES extraordinary living means.

Without gasoline, places that are remote and/or harsh would stay small in population and limited in mobility.

Remoteness matters.

Martin Winlow
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Martin Winlow

That is only true if an adequate recharging or railway infrastructure does not exist.

Mark.ca
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Mark.ca

So in CO you can’t install solar? Interesting…

Someone out there
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Someone out there

Not everyone can install solar

realistic
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realistic

Indeed, a Prius is cleaner than a Leaf in most of the northern climes and will be for some time yet. In fact in several midwestern states a SkyActiv Mazda 3 wins overall in deep winter.

Mark.ca
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Mark.ca

Some of these ev owners may have solar so your assumption may be false.

Martin Winlow
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Martin Winlow

I’m really sorry but this is complete twaddle. You have been listening to the propaganda from Trump’s Big Oil bed-fellows too much. Even if you mean plug-in Prius’, and then only if they actually ever get plugged in, you might get somewhere near parity but as others have pointed out, if you offset your EV’s electricity use from PV (or better still use it directly via storage) there is simply no comparison.

realistic
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realistic

No reason to be sorry. Be embarassed. Whenever you resort to dataless rebuttal based on his foil-hatted Big Oil conspiracy theories and a lack of technical understanding, you needn’t apologize to me. Apologize to the people who associate with you.

Paper:
“Effect of regional grid mix, driving patterns and climate on the comparative carbon footprint of gasoline and plug-in electric vehicles in the United States”

http://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/11/4/044007/meta;jsessionid=DA02616E5DA2A6101BC7B54B4EBFE16D.ip-10-40-1-105

BenR
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BenR

There is actually newer data which shifts the advantage more toward plug-in vehicles. In January 2017 the EPA updated their eGrid database regarding emissions from electric power generation: https://www.epa.gov/energy/emissions-generation-resource-integrated-database-egrid

And last Wednesday May 31, 2017 the Union of Concerned Scientists used that data to update their analysis of EV emissions. There was a significant improvement in most regions. They have a map showing the crossover mpg where EV and ICE vehicles have equal emissions: http://blog.ucsusa.org/dave-reichmuth/new-numbers-are-in-and-evs-are-cleaner-than-ever?_ga=2.152836025.1853195004.1496671747-1113630782.1479135613

Interestingly the EPA database released this year only includes data collected through 2014, so I’m curious what the changes might have been since then. Anyway I was surprised to see that here in my part of Wisconsin our Leaf is slightly cleaner than our old Prius. Of course the analysis and calculations are complicated and I’m sure there are differences in the methodologies of the Union of Concerned Scientists versus the Carnegie Mellon group but it’s nice to see the grid moving in a cleaner direction.

realistic
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realistic

Thank you, Ben. Genuinely. A well-considered post. I have long been a LITTLE skeptical of UCS becausee they are an advocacy group, but I look forward to a read.

Rad
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Rad

BEVs clean up the consumer end. Now if the electric companies will clean up their end.

Devin Serpa
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Devin Serpa

California will be 100% clean renewable before long.

DieselisNasty
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DieselisNasty

California will succeed only if they can get by Trump and the bought-off Republicans in the House of Representatives.

Mark.ca
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Mark.ca

Trump will not be here for long, Cali clean energy push is decades old and will continue on course regardless of whom is in the WH.

KM
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KM

If China, India and EU push EVs harder they could crash oil, then tax that cheaper oil more to keep petrol prices at the pump at the current level and then use some of that money to keep pushing EVs…

Result?

Perpetuum mobile or an orchard where money grows on trees. Why import oil for 50 dollars per barrel when you could buy it for 30?
To speed up the crash eliminate kerosene lamps in India and Africa by replacing with with solar lights.

With the current glut all we need is a 1% drop in oil demand and then just make sure that most of these savings get spent on supporting EV roll out and the crash becomes permanent.

Bob Nan
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Bob Nan

I recently read that India is rapidly rolling out LPG(Propane/Butane) stoves with cylinders to replace Kerosene / Firewood burning stoves and able to cut the Kerosene imports which is nothing but a petro-product.

May be they can use something similar to build up a market for Electric vehicles.

Also India can try blending Methanol as M15 like China does and this can be done more easily.

Gazz
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Gazz

India is investing heavily in renewables. Aiming for 60% by 2030. Happy green motoring.

realistic
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realistic
“India is investing heavily in renewables.” Not really. India is investing FAR more in coal production, with the most recent goal for 2020 production being 908 MILLION metric tonnes, decreased from 1 Billion Metric Tonnes only due to challenges unrelated to emissions. https://www.telegraphindia.com/1170405/jsp/business/story_144524.jsp In fact India has reduced taxes on coal and increased taxes on solar. http://www.businessinsider.com/r-coal-india-wins-tax-cut-boost-as-environmentalists-fret-2017-5 The typical Indian-style 90-page plan for nuttin’ but BEVs created by a battalion of government neddies? How can this even begin to happen in a country that doesn’t have an equivalent plan to bring plumbing to more than 500,000,000 citizens currently forced to defecate outdoors? Please: this fantasy is mind-blowingly absurd. India doesn’t have a prayer of meeting some 2032 no-ICE target, and if they did they would do it with a grid mostly powered by coal. I have no idea why insideev’s doesn’t do a more critical and analytical job of reporting the nonsense that comes out of Piyush Goyal and the prevaricating Modi government. Please try harder, insideevs. Spend a week in even the upscale parts of Delhi, Mumbai, Hyderabad, or the city of your choice and report back on how these “India’s gonna do awesome EV stuff” actually square with… Read more »
Bob Nan
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Bob Nan

This is what everyone said about China. Now China is #1 in Electric vehicle sales.

An active government can certainly do something.

realistic
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realistic

From the Financial Times, who, like you strongly endorse the “massive” movement of China toward EV:

https://www.ft.com/content/3d9d0c78-ce7b-11e6-864f-20dcb35cede2

“Beijing is targeting output of 3.9bn tonnes of coal in 2020, up from 3.75bn tonnes in 2015, said the National Development and Reform Commission, adding that consumption will rise to 4.1bn tonnes from 3.96bn tonnes over the same period.”

Based on the US’s five-year trend in coal consumption, US 2020 coal consumption will fall to somewhere between 600-700 Million tons from a 2015 level of about 780 Million tons. So China will rise from 500% of US to just over 600%.

Stick to the big picture. China’s EV population is meaningless by comparison. And India’s ability to achieve even that is fantasy.

RC368
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RC368

Ah, did you look at your numbers? For a country that usually posts 8% annual growth, you just spelled out growth less than 1% annual for coal. So, is that progress? Are you against it?

realistic
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realistic

“Progress” is wonderful. It’s progressive to make progress. By all means!

What’s nonsense is the continued sales pitch that (1) ignores the magnitude of the challenge of energy production in the developing world and (2) repeats the mantra that “renewables are taking over”. Parsing small numbers is a weak argument.

RC368
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RC368

So moving in the right direction is not good enough for you?

Mikael
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Mikael
“India is investing heavily in renewables.” Not really. Yes, really. India is putting loads into renewables. With good reasons since they are winning the power auctions on price. Coal plants are getting cancelled and the pipeline of coal projects that might get built is a lot less than the cancelled ones The new ones coming online are just making older plants obsolete, with a usage percentage going down every year. They have more capacity than they need and will use. Domestic coal production is mainly going up because they are cutting coal imports, not because of a huge increase in total coal needed. So next time read the article you are quoting and try to understand what it means. The percentage of electricity coming from coal is going down. Possibly even getting down under 70% by the years end. The absolute numbers are only a couple of years away from leveling out. Just as we have seen in China, where total coal use for electricity has been going down for the last couple of years and continue to go down. India is on the right track even though they have a habit of over promise and under deliver. Will they… Read more »
realistic
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realistic

China Coal consumption will remain very high for at least two decades, regardless of “progress”.

https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/ieo/coal.cfm

And there is no way in hell India is consuming less coal. They are on a path to increase coal consumption past 2030:

John C
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John C

LOL. I was with u until you held up the EIA as a reliable source of future energy projections, esp after 2030!

Their USGOV charter hamstrings them to not consider ANY future policy incentives OR the plausible continuation of current incentives.

Most oil majors are now predicting faster adoption of EVs and RE than the EIA.

Mark.ca
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Mark.ca

He uses old info and from sources that torture the data until it talks to fit his agenda…you get used to him with his same old arguments and short sided views….to be fair, there are others here that are even worse.

realistic
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realistic

How ’bout Wood Mckensie then, who are frequently referenced by the “green” energy advocacy and who are quoted in a GreenTechMedia post. If late 2016 isn’t good enough, then does 27 April suit you?

https://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/coal-down-renewables-up-india-on-the-rise-in-2035-energy-outlook

See India coal generation growing robustly through 2035.

Next objection, please.

realistic
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realistic

Of course let’s all be clear that Woods McKensie owns GTM, but GTM depends on its green bona fides for business. This may not look tasty but the consultants spend a hell of a lot of time with source material from governments telling their renewable stories, and the staff is loaded with indigenous researchers.

Josh Bryant
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Josh Bryant

India is/was roughly 90% served on electricity. V2G (as short term home battery backup) will be the key feature to sell most of the consumers on electric.

I would love it if they converted the fleet of rickshaws to electric!

I enjoyed my time working over there, but street level pollution was rough.

realistic
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realistic

“I would love it if they converted the fleet of rickshaws to electric!”

I’m sure most of the tuk tuk owner/operators would also love to have a reliable course of electricity at their domiciles when they come home from a 12-16 hour day. But most do not.

zzzzzzzzzz
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zzzzzzzzzz

It is not going to stop electric revolution!
They may get a quick loan to buy diesel generators as more affluent folks and charge from generators – problem solved! It may be even cleaner than 60% coal powered grid at night after all.

realistic
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realistic

Yeah, that’s the ticket: charge with a diesel generator and burn fuel less efficiently than just putting power to the ground. But not only that… they now get to buy new vehicles AND new generators.

Be sure to give additional advice on how they might get better spa memberships and more extensive out-of-country vacation travel — equally useful perspective.

But thanks for the comment.

Martin T.
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Martin T.

Yes their aim is 100% spot on, but with one major flaw – reliable electricity. India needs a major green and even other rework including electricity distribution all the way up to end users.
If anyone has been to India, you will understand this is a monumental project.
Then we can talk about electric cars in India.

RC368
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RC368

They bypassed the need for land lines with cell phones, same will happen with solar for electric cars. Nabobs.

realistic
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realistic

I am in the business of power products, including cell tower primary and backup power in developing economies. There are plenty of PV installations going in, all backed with diesel gensets, sometimes two. The reality of providing easy solar energy continues to be largely a vision of wealthy westerners opining about the future from a reliable carbon-fueled grid.

RC368
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RC368

I find your comment that you are a commercial expert in both the areas mentioned in my post, cell and solar in the 3rd world highly suspect. Some data back up please, otherwise, you’re fos.

realistic
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realistic

BTW, RC368: you are among the most data-free commenters here. Congrats… or not.

RC368
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RC368

I never said solar was easy, but it sure looks that way compared to building a coal/gas plant and then trying to distribute it. For third world solar installations, I’m sure back-up generators make sense, for now. But batteries are already proving themselves to be cheaper than running diesel, like Kauai (that’s a fact).

SJC
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SJC

India needs a reliable grid first.

Hauer
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As a starter they have to STOP being proud of their growing population.

Last time a talked to a software lead engineer from Mumbay I could not believe what I heard.
It sounde like the old Nazi slogans with the exception of needing “new room in the east”.