In Densely Populated, Wealthy Cities, EVs Could Dominate By 2030

1 year ago by Mark Kane 22

Renault ZOE

Renault ZOE

According to the Bloomberg New Energy Finance and McKinsey & Company report, by 2030 electric cars will take about 60% share in densely populated high-income cities like London and Singapore.

smart electric drive forfour

smart electric drive forfour

Three reasons were mentioned as main factors:

  • low-emission zones
  • consumer interest
  • favorable economics

In parallel, its expected that by 2030 in some cities about 40% of vehicles could become autonomous.

Worldwide EV sales are forecasted at 35% by 2040, which truthfully sounds a little bit pessimistically at this point, as we hope for a much faster spread.

source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance and McKinsey & Company

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22 responses to "In Densely Populated, Wealthy Cities, EVs Could Dominate By 2030"

  1. Pushmi-Pullyu says:

    A failure of imagination. PEVs (Plug-in EVs) could well dominate in all cities in first-world countries by 2030.

    As a reminder, New York City took only 10 years to go from nearly all horse-drawn traffic to nearly all automobile and truck traffic.

    Will the EV revolution happen any slower? I hope not!

    1. Ocean Railroader says:

      When I was in Mexico gas was over five US dollars a gallon. Also there were no cars. I could picture EV’s taking root there if they had lots of solar power.

      1. Scott Franco says:

        Must have gone to a different Mexico.

    2. BraveLilToaster says:

      A failure of imagination indeed. If anyone can produce an EV for less than $15,000 (without weird incentives that involve getting money back after the actual purchase), they’ll mop the floor with the gas engine.

      It’s already happening in Norway because of the way they tax cars, making gas guzzlers more expensive. The automakers just have to catch up. I suspect this will happen before 2025 for sure.

      1. Mike says:

        I think it could be done now. The new Tesla Powerwall is 14 kWh with internal management controls and an inverter. Ya it is different from an EV powerpack and electronics, but I would think the complexity is similar. They are making a profit at 5,500$, so costs are probably less of than 4,500$. Add an electric motor and stuff in a small car and for 15,000$ you have a decent little car less affluent cities.

    3. ffbj says:

      Killer smogs will probably force big cities in catastrophic air pollution zones to adopt draconian measures to curtail these phenomena, which will accelerate ev adoption in those locales.

  2. Bill Howland says:

    “DP Wealthy cities”

    Other than perhaps Manhattan, the article is talking by definition outside the US.

    We don’t have another one.

    1. Ambulator says:

      I think San Francisco would qualify, too.

      1. Trollnonymous says:

        Many there don’t even own cars. SF is a walking city. Most places are walking distance.

        1. energymatters says:

          Your name is indicative….

          SF has 30% of the population that doesn’t own a car. of the balance. 33% of total live in single family homes, 67% live in multi-family (apartments).

          So 70% of population has a car.

          Already in SF you can see, typically, 1 PHEV or EV on every block

    2. super390 says:

      If you’re talking income averages, it becomes a complex mess because of the way American cities rely on middle-class workers who live in hostile surrounding suburbs or even exurbs. You could argue that, after all, any American city has a higher per capita income than found in the wealthiest cities in nearly all other countries. The city-state of Singapore is at $53,000 a year, about the same for the US as a whole. But the “average” city is now Chinese.

  3. super390 says:

    All the fastest changes going on around us favor those young people fortunate enough to be in the right place in the economy, and indications are that they like living in cities. 14 more years of demographic turnover establishes them as the power in the country, whatever fate befalls other Americans. They will be more likely to keep up with developments in alternative energy AND robotization. However, we don’t know what mix of car-sharing, self-driving cars, EVs, mass transit, walking, or drone replacement of personal shopping will arise.

    So I would say SOMETHING powered by electricity will be dominating urban public streets in the future, but I can’t say whether it’s got humans inside of it or not. It will all be about comfort, convenience and acculturation.

    1. Ocean Railroader says:

      I really picture the future of America looking like Southwestern Vriginia after all the factories closed crushing the local economy in that area. Leading to were the only jobs are barely above minimum wage. The biggest 900 pound gorilla that could break our economy spine is how far will automation go and how will we adapt to it.

  4. loboc says:

    Based on his charts of disruptive innovations, futurist Tony Seba recently pulled back his prediction of ALL new vehicles being electric by 2030 to 2025. This will be a complete disruption of energy and automotive sectors. He also predicts that all new power plants will be new energy as well.

    And yes, one of the disruption examples he uses is NYC going from horses to cars in only 13 years.

    1. fasterthanonecanimagine says:

      Fully support 2025(fasterthanonecanimagine).
      Nobody in the developed world will buy a new ICE car by 2025 anymore, the market will be flooded with high quality used cars for a token. Remember CRT TVs?

    2. pjwood1 says:

      He also says EVs are “10X” cheaper to fuel. Cheaper, but not close to 10X.

    3. Ocean Railroader says:

      I think it’s going to take a lot longer for EV’s to take over. The reason why is electric charging stations are being built very slowly. Also as if now it’s going to take a very long time for a 200 mile range ev to filter down into the used car market that I would be able to afford.

      The only way this could be sped up is if they had a 200 mile range battery upgrade for under $3000 dollars for a 2015 Nissan leaf or Mitsubishi i-miev.

  5. Roy_H says:

    It is all about price. If a person walked into a dealership and could buy an equivalent 300 mile BEV for the same price as a gasser, then almost everybody would choose the BEV. I am optimistic that the Tesla Model 3 although starting at $35k+ will become cheaper as the years go by and the benefits of full automation kick in. When it gets low enough, good bye ICEs.

  6. Ocean Railroader says:

    Personally I think by 2030 our population and economy are going to have a ton of other things that could wreak it vs worrying about electric cars. The biggest question is will people have docent paying jobs to afford cars and housing. In that if outsourcing and automation runs rampant and we don’t have a discussion about health care and supporting all of these people who lose their jobs do to robots.

    In this low wage economy this is growing now I don’t picture myself owning a house or I will most likely being driving around a 30 year old gas car.

    Or maybe in 2025 the earth gets hit by a giant asteroid or passes though a space water cloud then we don’t have to worry about what we think 2030 will look like.

    1. Mister G says:

      By your logic, why do anything because we all eventually die lol

  7. Priusmaniac says:

    I think pure electric will go at that pace or even faster, but not autonomous vehicles, which are a transient hype that will fade when the last 5% of problems make it remain unsolved until we have true AI in yet another century or two. Even then many people simply won’t be interested. Who would want a self playing video game?

  8. Scott Franco says:

    If the EV industry does not improve the charge times, then EVs will be permanently stuck in “second car” mode. With the increase in range to 200, which matches what was a common range for gas cars before, we are looking at 1 hour charge times. Nobody is going to accept this for long distance travel. Thus these will remain city cars, and thus will be second cars only.

    If that is going to be the rule, then my “%25 by 2025” rule won’t be a tipping point, it will be a limit.