The International Energy Agency’s Report Says Tesla Is Star Of Show

4 months ago by EVANNEX 16

Tesla Model 3

A look at a white Tesla Model 3 production candidate

IEA: TESLA HAS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE ELECTRIC VEHICLE SALES GOALS, BATTERY COST REDUCTIONS, AND CHARGING CAPABILITIES

Electric vehicles are on a major roll, and the International Energy Agency’s annual report on the market makes for lively reading this year. The IEA’s Global EV Outlook 2017 report notes that global plug-in vehicle sales surpassed 750,000 in 2016, bringing the number of battery-powered cars on the world’s roads to over two million. Electric vehicles (EVs) still have a long way to go before they make a dent in global oil demand and greenhouse gas emissions – they still amount to only 0.2% of the passenger light-duty vehicles in service – but sales are growing quickly, and in some countries their market share is already formidable.

Global hotspots include Norway, where 29% of new cars sold are now plug-in models, and China, by far the world’s largest electric car market, with more than 40% of the electric cars sold in the world, not to mention 200 million electric motorcycles and more than 300,000 electric buses. Public charging infrastructure is also proliferating – in 2016, its annual growth rate was 72%.

*This article comes to us courtesy of Evannex (which also makes aftermarket Tesla accessories). Authored by Charles Morris.

Above: The International Energy Agency provides video recap of key findings from their Global EV Outlook 2017 report (Source: IEA)

Battery costs are on the way down and energy density is on the way up. There is every reason to believe that this trend will continue, narrowing the cost gap between EVs and internal combustion engines (ICEs). The IEA predicts that there will be between 40 and 70 million electric cars on the road by 2025.

Tesla Model 3

Tesla Model 3 release candidate

In several ways, Tesla is the star of the show. The California carmaker is leading the pack when it comes to battery cost reductions and charging capabilities. It also has set by far the most aggressive goals for selling more EVs in the years ahead.

Tesla

Tesla’s Fremont factory

When it comes to battery costs, Tesla’s are widely believed to be as low as any in the industry. The Department of Energy estimates that, for battery packs that will be used in new EV models, the cost in 2016 was between $250 and $300 per kWh. Tesla and Panasonic have said that their pack cost is somewhere between $180 and $200/kWh (GM and its supplier LG Chem claim similar figures).

Tesla

Tesla Shows Off The Model S Glider And 8,000 Odd Panasonic 18650 Cells That Power The Car

Looking to the future, many industry observers have said that a price point of $100/kWh will allow EVs to reach cost parity with legacy vehicles. The DOE expects the industry to be near that point by 2022, and GM predicts that it will reach the magic 100-dollar mark by that date. One of Tesla’s original co-founders Martin Eberhard and Tesla’s current CFO Deepak Ahuja each recently predicted that the $100 tipping point would be achieved in that timeframe. Tesla’s cost target (according to the IEA’s chart) is – surprise, surprise – even more aggressive, reaching the Promised Land in 2020.

Tesla

Electric vehicle battery costs dropping sharply with Tesla leading the way (Source: IEA)

Expanding production volume should cut costs substantially, as will increasing the pack size. According to the DOE, increasing production volumes from 25,000 units to 100,000 units could reduce per-kWh costs by 13%. Increasing the pack size from 60 kWh to 100 kWh (roughly reflecting an increase in range from 200 km to 320 km) would also lead to a 17% reduction in cost.

Tesla likewise leads the pack when it comes to charging – its Level 2 equipment can charge at up to 17.2 kW, the highest level in the industry. Most Superchargers crank out 120 kW, and some go as high as 145 kW, comparable to the highest levels that the competing CCS and CHAdeMO standards can muster. And the company is planning to push that much higher – last December, Elon Musk hinted at something called Supercharger V3, which will offer charging levels higher than “a mere 350 kW.”

Tesla

Tesla is on the vanguard of electric vehicle charging capability (Source: IEA)

Where do the world’s automakers stand when it comes to projected sales of their plug-in electric vehicles? The IEA’s report includes a handy table that compares the announced electrification plans for the world’s major EV-builders.

Tesla

Automakers’ plans for their electric vehicle programs (Source: IEA)

Of course, these figures are only the most recent official projections, and they may have little relation to eventual reality. However, a mere glance at this list shows that Tesla’s plans are in a different league. No other automaker has announced a sales goal anywhere near as ambitious. Even all of the mighty Chinese firms together only plan to produce 4 or 5 times as many EVs as Tesla. Ironically, the company that has the most hyped EV on the market at the moment – the Chevy Bolt – has perhaps the most timid sales projection on the list. GM is expected to sell only around 30,000 Bolts this year, and it has yet to formally announce any more new plug-in models.

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Source: International Energy Agency

*Editor’s Note: EVANNEX, which also sells aftermarket gear for Teslas, has kindly allowed us to share some of its content with our readers. Our thanks go out to EVANNEX, Check out the site here.

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16 responses to "The International Energy Agency’s Report Says Tesla Is Star Of Show"

  1. FISHEV says:

    “Looking to the future, many industry observers have said that a price point of $100/kWh will allow EVs to reach cost parity with legacy vehicles. The DOE expects the industry to be near that point by 2022, and GM predicts that it will reach the magic 100-dollar mark by that date.”

    That would be $10,000 for battery (motors and gear boxes additional) vs. $2,000 for current ICE engine and transmission.

    I’m not seeing the “equity”.

    Goal is 100% EV (non polluting, sustainable) cars on the road by 2050 which requires 100% of car sales by 2035. That requires more than equity by 2035.

    Gets back to necessary policy now which is subsidy to make EV more economically attractive to buyers and to penalize ICE use via road fuel taxes.

    The IEA and others numbers show the necessity for this.

    1. John says:

      I think you meant ‘parity’ vice ‘equity.’ Regardless, I don’t think that you can focus on parity without recognizing “all things being considered.” I believe that the cost of the battery, added to the reduction in maintenance and gasoline cost, is used for parity with legacy vehicles.

      1. Macinator says:

        Spot on John. You can not look at just one point and call the whole thing. That kind of thinking is just dumb.

      2. FISHEV says:

        “I believe that the cost of the battery, added to the reduction in maintenance and gasoline cost, is used for parity with legacy vehicles.”

        The cost of gasoline is over many years, 7+ years for a 30 mpg, 14,000 mile a year, $3 gal gasoline. While the $10,000 is up front adding in the the factor of money. Assuming people are borrowing $8,000 of the $10,000, the time factors put the gasoline payback to near 10 years.

        As for the “radiator, alternator, cooling”, the batteries have a more expensive cooling system, motors and gear boxes so we still end up with the $10,000 to achieve equity and we still need a $12,000 subsidy to move EV’s to mainstream sales.

        Bottomline is we can’t wait for the moving target of price equity. We have to get EV (no emissions vehicle) production and sales going in much greater numbers if we are going to meet the climate scientists goals of 80% reduction of 2000 level CO2 emissions.

    2. ffbj says:

      Engine & transmission for 2k? I don’t think so. Plus you have radiator system, exhaust system, alternator, starter.

      1. FISHEV says:

        Probably less than for mass produced in the average 2.5l/CVT range.

    3. mx says:

      You need to compare motor to engine of applicable level.
      You need to ask at the Tesla price point what it costs Audi, BMW 5 Series, and Mercedes Benz E series engines cost.

      You don’t compare a Tesla powertrain to a Honda Fit ICE.

    4. fasteddie2020 says:

      I am sticking with my prediction of $55/kWh at the cell level….soon….by Panasonic at Gigafactory 1!

      https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/944e8d0b08363ad7b8e6761e056a2533b205c6e8d478728df85dacc97f2904f9.jpg

    5. Peter says:

      ICE car engine and power train for $2.000?
      The cost for new engine is $10.000

  2. Orphancarguy says:

    At $100 per kWh total power train cost is reaching parity with ICE. A Bolt 60 kWh and Tesla 75 would be $6k and 7.5k at the battery level, and the finished cost at pack/drive train level including motors and controllers would be about 50% higher in all. Motors are cheap, engines are not when you include all the related pumps, exhaust, transmission, pollution control, fuel injection, ignition (!!) and cooling systems. Where on earth can you get a crate 0-60 in under 8 seconds complete drive train for $2k??? Even a short block can be more than $2k by itself! If you are making a cost comparison ICE to electric, it has to be a FAIR comparison.

    1. Peter says:

      Agree people tend to take numbers from out of the blue.

  3. Orphancarguy says:

    Should be, ‘at $100 kWh for battery cost, total power train cost….’

  4. Sy Gung Ho says:

    A mile in my Leaf costs 3.5 cents ($0.15/KwH / 4.3 miles/KwH). A mile in my ICE Camry costs 8.7 cents ($2.60/gallon / 30 miles/gallon). Hence, 100,000 miles in EV costs $3,500 and the same distance in Camry is $8,700 or $5K more expensive. The Leaf 30 KwH battery @100/KwH would cost $3K. The battery is paying for itself just in gas cost savings, easily. In fact, there is a $7K profit if battery makes it to 200,000 miles (and I know of one that has made that). Even greater savings if gas prices go up.

    1. Peter says:

      This is the correct way to work the numbers.
      Some times I think that a lot of ICE owners did struggle at school with mathematics and did not get approved ratings.

    2. Peter says:

      And I have driven 100.000 miles with my Tesla and 100.000 more seems no problem at all not even 200.000 miles more feel like any problem for the battery and then I hope to only shift to a new battery at $100.00 per kW.

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