IEA: Global Electric Vehicle Stats, Sales and Outlook – Graphics Galore

NOV 6 2017 BY MARK KANE 11

The International Energy Agency has explored the global plug-in electric vehicle market a little deeper, on the occasion of when the first 2 million sales worldwide was reached through the end of 2016.

The net total is still not much compared to more than 200 million electric two wheelers that exist mostly in China, but the EV sales ramp is clearly just starting to take off now.  China is also currently the largest passenger electric vehicle market as well.

The total electric bus fleet at the end of 2016 stood at 345,000 units, and here again, China takes most of that pie.

As you can see (via the top graphic), adoption of all-electrics (BEV) vs plug-in hybrids (PHEV) varies wildly by country, depending on the specific needs of the market, available models and of course Рgovernmental policy.  Overall, the worldwide average shows a split of 60% BEVs / 40% PHEV according to the report.

Some further stats center around charging infrastructure, as over 2 million global private charging stations are supplemented by 212,000 public AC (slow) charging stations and ~110,000 DC fast chargers.

Global EV Charging Outlook (source: IEA)

Deployment scenarios for the stock of electric cars to 2030 (source: IEA)

source: International Energy Agency

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11 Comments on "IEA: Global Electric Vehicle Stats, Sales and Outlook – Graphics Galore"

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First year of a million+ sales of plug-in cars (2017).

How will that annual global sales number continue to develop further in the coming years?

I would have liked to see that in a graph.

Too bad that it’s not included in this news item.

How about:
2018: 2 million
2020: 4 million
2022: 8 million
2024: 12 million
2026: 18 million
2028: 24 million
2030: 32 million
2032: 40 million
2034: 50 million
2036: 64 million
2038: 80 million
2040: 100 million

Is this a possible trajectory?

That’s the last graph in the article, and your trajectory would be drastically undercutting even the lowest trajectory shown. They’re estimating a minimum of 55 million electric cars on the road by 2030, and possibly as many as 200 million.

Actually, it wouldn’t be undercutting — Benz is giving the annual sales number, not cumulative ones. Using his numbers, and taking into account there are already >1M EVs on-road wordwide, cumulative 55M would be passed in 2028 (69M cumulative).

You’re right. Those annual sales numbers would put his estimate between the IEA RTS and Paris Declaration trajectories on the graph.


Actually even above the Paris Declaration

According to my numbers:
on January 1st 2030, the cumulative total would be 139 million


Wow, China is kicking ass in DCFC infrastructure (and RE build-out) while the US is doubling down on Coal.

Shows how the Chinese Communist Govt has more brains and planning then the Trumpster fire that the US federal govt has become.

Go visit China and see if you still feel that way. China doesn’t need to double down on coal, because they’ve already doubled a few times.

It’s true China is being aggressive with EVs now, but every mention of that really should come with an asterisk about how they’ve already largely trashed their environment, as well as that of their neighbors. They have a long way to go just to dig themselves out of their hole.

Meanwhile, coal is dead in the U.S. regardless of what Trump wants. The economics simply aren’t there any more. It’s nothing but the last gasp of a dying industry.

China had the idea that they need a ton of energy to develop their economy and once they are satisfied with energy they would be able to clean up the mess afterwards. So they ordered a massive build-out of coal power but it bit them in the backside when people started dying from the coal smog that is now plaguing the country so they changed their plan to develop renewable energy and scale back coal. This is what’s going on now but it will take a while to do.
So China isn’t building record solar and wind installations because they care about the environment, they are doing it because they are literally killing themselves from the coal smog. That it happen to agree with the Paris accord is just a bonus. Then it turned out that massive installations of RE also pushed the price down so now it even makes financial sense to do so.

Funny, yesterday I ran the same calculation for 30% compound annual growth rate that we already see for U.S. sales.

2017 1,000,000
2018 1,300,000
2019 1,690,000
2020 2,197,000
2021 2,856,100
2022 3,712,930
2023 4,826,809
2024 6,274,852
2025 8,157,307
2026 10,604,499
2027 13,785,849
2028 17,921,604
2029 23,298,085
2030 30,287,511

The annual increase is a bit slow in the beginning but pretty fast near 2030.

Cumulative total on January 1st 2030 is just below 130 million. And that is pretty good.

The Paris Declaration is under 120 million.

But the annual increase after 2030 will be much too steep (85 million in 2033).

I think that when EVs are about 20-30% of the new car market the ICE sales will start to break down. EVs are superior to ICEs and when early adopter problems are gone (like lacking infrastructure) there will be a massive avalanche towards EVs.