IDTechX: Global EV Market to to Reach $334 Billion By End of Decade

DEC 26 2013 BY ERIC LOVEDAY 4

The “total global gross value market for electric vehicles will reach US$334 billion within the decade,” according to a press release put out by analyst firm IDTechX.

The Globe Will Get Greener as More EVs Hit the Roads

The Globe Will Get Greener as More EVs Hit the Roads

That’s a HUGE market, especially when one considers that the current value of the EV market today is estimated at $69 billion.  So, in 6 or so years, the EV market will more than quadruple in gross value.

IDTechX adds:

“Pure electric buses are becoming more popular than hybrid ones and a large market for small electric aircraft and robot lawnmowers is expected near the end of the coming decade. At this time pure electric cars will take off in sales as range improves up to five fold, due to much more than improvement in batteries, and cost becomes acceptable for mass use.”

“Meanwhile, a new sector is growing rapidly – the car-like vehicles that are not homologated as cars so they are simpler and much lower in cost. These are the MicroEVs homologated as quadricycles in Europe, and aimed at massive markets such as electrifying the 3.2 million highly polluting three-wheeled taxis in the Philippines.”

Range improves up to five fold? Hmm…we doubt that.

Though it would be swell to see range jump that dramatically, those of us in the biz know it’s not going to happen.  But still, we suspect IDTechX is right in saying that EV sales will “take off” near the end of the decade and the reason for that will likely be increased range (not by five fold though), more selection and reduced prices.

Categories: General

Tags: ,

Leave a Reply

4 Comments on "IDTechX: Global EV Market to to Reach $334 Billion By End of Decade"

newest oldest most voted

Yeah, I don’t expect to see a 5 fold increase in range, especially in 6 years. I do expect to see nearly 2x as I suspect that 150 miles of range will be the defacto minimum for a pure EV in the next decade. However, I do not believe battery improvements will be the sole reason for the increase. I believe that will play part of it but other efficiency gains will also be part of the puzzle.

I don’t think increased EV range will be a slow progression. When battery makers launch the metal/air batteries (e.g. Li-air) which significantly reduce the large cathodes, there will be a substantial increase in energy density, theoretically as high as 12 kWh/kg (gasoline is 13 kWh/kg). This will allow for a quantum leap increase in range…game over for the ICE.

Tesla will bring 120 kWh car on markets in few years. This has about five times more range than Nissan Leaf.

However this article has mistake. Hybrid sales are 69 billion today. This means about 2 million vehicles. 334 billion means sales of 10 million electric vehicles, or about 10 % market share for pure electric vehicles. This does not mean quadrupling EV markets, but it means 100 fold expansion of EV markets in six years!

But this is not hard prediction make if considered that Elon Musk predicts 50 million EV sales in 2025 and EV sales increased over 300 % in 2013.

My assumption on the 5 fold increase is they compared the 40 mile Chevy Volt with the rumored 200 mile “moonshot” EV that GM is promising.