Here’s What Drives EV Uptake In Various U.S. Markets

1 month ago by Mark Kane 0

Electric vehicle share of new 2016 vehicle registrations by metropolitan area.
(New vehicle registration data from IHS Automotive.) (source: ICCT)

The International Council on Clean Transportation (ICCT) released an interesting report earlier this year entitled “Expanding the electric vehicle market in U.S. cities”, which assesses the plug-in market in the 50 most populous U.S. metropolitan areas.

Annual electric vehicle sales in the United States from 2010 through 2016. (source: ICCT)

The analysis of the top 50 hot-spots is important because they combine to represent 81% of the plug-in electric car sales made last year.

As you can see on above graph (with the top 50 labeled), plug-ins market share is highest on the West Coast.

  • San Jose – 10%
  • other top California areas – 4-6%
  • markets in Colorado, Hawaii, Oregon, Vermont, and Washington – 2-4%
  • overall Top 50 – 1.2%
  • rest of the United States – about 0.4%

“This paper assesses the U.S. electric vehicle market and the actions driving it. The assessment catalogues actions in place, identifies exemplary practices, and discerns links between various electric vehicle promotion actions and electric vehicle sales. The analysis focuses on the 50 most populous metropolitan areas, which together represented about 81% of the 2016 U.S. electric vehicle market. The work statistically analyzes the connections among various state and local policies, public and workplace charging infrastructure, consumer incentives, model availability, and the share of new vehicles that are plug-in electric (both fully electric and plug-in hybrid).

On the basis of extensive local-level data collection, we conducted a statistical analysis to assess the link between key electric vehicle support activities and market uptake at the metropolitan-area level. In particular, we analyzed whether electric vehicle market share is linked with the availability of more electric vehicle models, charging infrastructure, fiscal and nonfiscal incentives, high-occupancy vehicle lane access, and other activities. Our analysis leads us to the following four conclusions.

Our analysis leads us to the following four conclusions:

Growth in the electric vehicle market requires many actions by many players. Actions by many local, state, and utility stakeholders work to reduce consumer barriers by means of policy, incentives, and awareness campaigns. Such a comprehensive approach is exemplified by California, where the Zero Emission Vehicle regulation helps to catalyze automaker marketing and model availability, complementary policy incentives, and sustained investment in charging infrastructure.

Expansion of electric vehicle options is a prerequisite to market growth. The five leading electric vehicle markets by volume, representing nearly half of all U.S. electric vehicle sales, each had at least 24 available electric vehicle models in 2016. Yet across the major U.S. markets, about half of the population has access to 10 or fewer electric models, and many dealerships have very low inventories of those models. Availability of more models across vehicle types, offered at a range of price points and passenger capacities, is an essential precursor to more substantial market development.

Consumer incentives remain key to growing the electric vehicle market. Electric vehicle uptake is linked with incentives that reduce the effective electric vehicle cost. Ten of the top 12 major metropolitan areas with the highest electric vehicle uptake offered consumer incentives typically worth $2,000 to $5,000. Consumers in California markets and Salt Lake City were offered both consumer purchase incentives and carpool lane access, and those in Denver and Seattle had substantial purchase incentives. Such incentives increase awareness and reduce the initial cost barrier while electric vehicle range and cost improvements continue to expand the market, ultimately reducing the need for incentives.

Electric vehicle charging infrastructure remains a barrier in many markets. Our analysis finds that the availability of public charge points and workplace charging is linked with electric vehicle market uptake. The markets of Charlotte, Detroit, Kansas City, Minneapolis, Pittsburgh, Providence, and Virginia Beach showed charging infrastructure growth of approximately 30% to 80%, corresponding with at least a doubling of their electric vehicle uptake from 2015 to 2016.”

Full report: Expanding the electric vehicle market in U.S. cities

Electric vehicle share of new vehicles and available consumer incentives (source: ICCT)

Electric vehicle public charging availability, promotion actions, and share of new vehicles (source: ICCT)

Automaker annual electric vehicle sales in the United States through 2016. (source: ICCT)

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