Goldman Sachs Analyst Provides 3 Future Outlook Scenarios for Tesla Motors; TSLA Stock Drops Big Time

JUL 17 2013 BY ERIC LOVEDAY 12

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Goldman Sachs analyst, Patrick Archambault, single-handedly did a number to Tesla Motors stock price on Tuesday when he set a 6-month price target of $84 per TSLA share.

TSLA Stock Price Down on 7-16

TSLA Stock Price Down on 7-16

Archambault left a “neutral” rating on Tesla, even though the automaker just made it on the NASDAQ 100.

As Arcahmbault sees it, there are one of 3 scenarios likely to play out for Tesla.

  1. Tesla sell 105,000 vehicles at a 14.6 percent operating margin and earnings of $5.99 per share
  2. Tesla sells 150,000 vehicles at a 14.8 percent operating margin and earnings of $ 8.59 per share
  3. Tesla sell 200,000 vehicles at a 15.2 percent operating margin and earnings of $11.69 per share

Archambault averaged the 3 scenarios together to arrive at his $84 target price for Tesla.

The target price, which is well below TSLA’s current value, caused what was one of the largest single-day declines in TSLA history.

What we find hard to believe is how the words of one individual can influence so many.

Source: Automotive News

Categories: Tesla

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12 Comments on "Goldman Sachs Analyst Provides 3 Future Outlook Scenarios for Tesla Motors; TSLA Stock Drops Big Time"

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“What we find hard to believe is how the words of one individual can influence so many.”

You mean like Ben Bernanke? We are one camel fart away from a global crash, and you wonder why markets are volatile.

And now its back up to $118/share

Maybe Goldman Sachs just wanted to buy some and make an instant profit. Another typical inside trade that is allowed because none of the big boys report each other.

Tefis rates the stock price $68.73
What’s interesting is that Trefis now puts the stock % for the Gen 3 (Bluestar) above the Model X. It used to be the other way around.

http://i901.photobucket.com/albums/ac211/kdawg2011/TeslaStock1_zps1f90333a.jpg

and only 2.7% debt?
Pretty good if true.

“What we find hard to believe is how the words of one individual can influence so many.”

Isn’t this precisely what Elon Musk does, time and again? 😉

GS probably was one of the many players shorting tesla and lost big recently…they’re trying to recoup…I think B of A also recently was very negative (for purely business reasons of course)…

To me, Tesla is a long term investment. If you believe transportation will change in the 21st century as I do.

Here’s some long term predictions by TEFIS. I grabbed the 3 slides I thought were interesting, but there’s much more info on their site.

Northland Securities analyst Colin Rusch took it a step further Monday and boosted his price target on the world’s hottest stock from $95 to $230 Monday and maintained an Outperform rating.

http://www.streetinsider.com/Analyst+Comments/Tesla+Motors+%28TSLA%29+PT+Raised+to+$230+at+Northland/8499024.html

Actually, there was most likely quite a bit of pent-up insecurity among investors. All they needed was a catalyst. The stock price had already been considered precarious by most when it jumped over $100. Within a week before Archambault’s report, TSLA jumped another seemingly unbelievable (and presumably unsustainable) jump to the upper $120s (spending a little time above $130 during trading). I’m willing to bet that there were many itchy fingers hovering over the “sell” button before that report came out. The report was a catalyst, not the root cause.

This is also evident by the huge rebound the very next day. People got nervous and wanted Christmas early, so they sold. Then, quite a few investors thought they saw a good buying opportunity with the stock sitting there in the mid $110s, bringing the price back up to around $120, where it’s been since.

I consider TSLA at least a 3 to 5-year hold, with the decision then to be based on where the competition is (if there is any). BMW could leverage their EV platform (skateboard design plus carbon-fiber) to compete with Tesla now, but they haven’t, yet. The i3 is probably a decent vehicle, but it hardly counts, and it won’t even be available in the US until Q2 of 2014. The i8 is essentially a souped-up Volt-style powertrain, which will probably take a few sales from Tesla, but it won’t be available until at least 2015, probably 2016. By then, the GenIII Beta car will be revealed, and worldwide reservations will be several 10s of thousands (mine included). Also, it is likely that the next generation of the Model S would be unveiled then, with more range (4.0Ah cells) and probably even greater performance. Nissan is gaining EV fans and market share with the Leaf, but they’ve got no EV that can touch Tesla at any price/performance ratio…at least, not for a while. Their Infinity version of the Leaf was no better in range – uncompetitive in the luxury EV segment (a.k.a. Tesla). The rest aren’t trying, or chasing hydrogen instead.… Read more »