Global Sale Of Electric & Hybrids To Triple To $178.9 Billion In 2024

3 years ago by Inside EVs Staff 22

Nissan LEAFs As Far As The Eye Can See

Nissan LEAFs As Far As The Eye Can See

Imagine Seeing Triple The Amount!

Imagine Seeing Triple The Amount!

IDTechEx states that “E-cars are oversupplied and changing in all respects but in this frenzy of birth and death the future is being created with hybrid cars rapidly gaining market share now and sale of pure electric cars likely to take off in the second half of the coming decade as certain technical and cost challenges are resolved.”

A rather odd statement, considering that market share for conventional hybrids is on the decline, so we must assume then that IDTechEx is referring to plug-in hybrids.

IDTechEX adds:

“…the global sale of hybrid and pure electric cars will triple to $178.9 billion in 2024 as they are transformed in most respects. For example, components are becoming integrated, the range extender as an optional extra breaks down the difference between pure electric and hybrid and car manufacturers vertically integrate and collaborate, competing with their suppliers.”

Tripling by 2024 is fine by us.

You can download the full report, for a bit less than the cost of a replacement Nissan LEAF batter, here: https://www.reportbuyer.com/product/2154028/

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22 responses to "Global Sale Of Electric & Hybrids To Triple To $178.9 Billion In 2024"

  1. Alaa says:

    Oversupply!

    Tesla can’t make them fast enough.

    1. Bonaire says:

      They actually can make them fast enough but they would burn down the backlog. The high speed assembly line can do 400 cars per day. But currently the issue would be what happens after you deliver all the orders?

      1. Lustuccc says:

        Tell me again about those 400 cars a day, with references please?

        Tesla can’t make them fast enough to fill the demand.

        How ridicoulously misinformant titles can get?!?

        Tesla alone will raise sales three fold by 2020! That is if they resist the petro-automobile cartel who provides us with so few EVs.

        1. See Through says:

          Ah, the Tesla myth of infinite demand. And yet, they are giving free chargers in China, throwing huge discounts in US and begging me for over a year to come and buy one of their Frankenstein cars.

          1. Aas says:

            What a hater for sure. Guess why someone’s today order of X will arrive no ssoner than spring-summer 2016? Probably for lack of demand. Hm?

        2. Bonaire says:

          I know someone who worked on re-configuration of the high-speed line and quoted to me that the line can do 400/day but was under 100/day after the reconfiguration went live. 400/day is 2800/week if run 7-days. Or what, maybe 134K a year?

          Not bad but the contracted battery constriaint is going to be Panasonic cells which add up to only 70,000 85kWh packs per year. They cannot make the line go full speed daily due to a current cell capacity limit. So, only 70,000 cars a year for now.

          1. See Through says:

            The Panasonic contract has a total number for some years, no annual limit. If Tesla wants more, Panasonic will deliver more and increase capacity.
            But the real issue is low demand. Otherwise, wait times would have been increasing from quarter to quarter. But we see the opposite.

        3. Bonaire says:

          Lust* – if they raise sales three fold by 2020, they will be well under where the Wall Street stock hawkers want them to be by 2020. And nowhere near the latest buzz-words of “millions a year by 2025”. I think a growth rate of 30% may be achievable. Building autos is tricky.

  2. Lou Grinzo says:

    Tripling over a decade, given the circumstances of current prices and market penetration, recent and anticipated reductions in battery prices, and the continued education of the general public re:EVs, would be bordering on a failure.

    We are closing in on a major knee-in-the-curve moment for the electrification of transportation. Once we have the Leaf 2.0, the Bolt, the Volt 2.0, and who knows what other additions and improvements — anyone care to guess what VW will do with the $36k e-Golf once there are 200-mile EVs at that price, or when Toyota and Honda will finally get their heads out of the sand and join the party? — cars with plugs should take off. And before 2024 we’ll have another major round of updates. Anyone think EVs will get worse when that happens?

  3. Mister G says:

    I can see this happening once Tesla gigafactory is up and running at full production.

  4. Dave K. says:

    Agree with Lou, tripling is very conservative. Once 150-200 mile EVs are available even at $30-35K and DCQC is common why would you ever burn gas again? They will fly off the dealer’s lots as fast as they can be made.

    1. jon says:

      Yes, very conservative that would mean less then 3% market share of new car sales cause it’s less then 1% today.I think plug-ins will be closer to 50% by 2024

      1. Mr. M says:

        Lol, no.

        Even in Norway where EVs are cheaper than ICEs from the very beginning they needed more than 3 years to gain 18% (January 2015 share). Normal cars are still cheaper. I think 2016/2018 will increase range, but still high prices for EVs. Around 2020 EV will become cheaper in MSRP. And thats when the big shift will start.

        I think all above 5% is succes and i speculate around 10% of new car sales will be EVs in 2024.

        1. jon says:

          Yeah 50% would be unrealistic. but by 2024 i think there would be a full range of plug-ins that are affordable from pickups to 2 seater sports cars From almost every manufacturer.

      2. Mr. M says:

        Lol, no.

        Even in Norway where EVs are cheaper than ICEs from the very beginning they needed more than 3 years to gain 18% (January 2015 share). Normal cars are still cheaper. I think 2016/2018 will increase range, but still high prices for EVs. Around 2020 EV will become cheaper in MSRP. And thats when the big shift will start.

        I think all above 5% is succes and i speculate around 10% of new car sales will be EVs in 2024.

        My two cents…

        1. Bonaire says:

          Mr. M – but will the government in Norway maintain the healthy sized incentives that attract people to buy an EV over an ICE? The free parking, free tolls, bus lane access and no sales/import taxes? That currently is supposed to “run out” after the 50,000 units are imported and sold and that happens sometime in 2015. Extending this will be important to continue the sales rate in Norway.

    2. sven says:

      “. . . why would you ever burn gas again?”

      Because you have no place to plug in at home, and public charging is more expensive and time consuming than gassing up an ICE.

      Two years ago, about 50% of households in the US couldn’t plug in at home two years ago. Not much has changed since.

      1. wavelet says:

        What specifically do you mean by “Two years ago, about 50% of households in the US couldn’t plug in at home”? If you mean that they live in apartments, that’s wrong.

        I couldn’t find the direct current numbers for the overall US, but I’ve seen articles citing 60%-75% of US households live in detached houses.
        It’s above 50% even in the vast majority of the US metro areas, see:
        http://www.newgeography.com/content/002506-more-americans-move-detached-houses

        1. sven says:

          Oops. My bad. My memory isn’t as good as it used to be. Actually, a whopping 60% of the US population couldn’t easily plug-in at home!!!

          http://insideevs.com/carnegie-melon-says-limited-residential-parking-will-ultimately-hinder-ev-adoption/

          http://www.greencarcongress.com/2013/11/20131112-cmu.html

  5. Mikael says:

    179 billion. Then they are talking about somewhere around 6-9 million cars (per year).

    So it’s a tripling of plugins + traditional hybrids.
    I think that plugins will sell in about those numbers, about 9 millions per year. And since traditional hybrid are declining and being replaced by plugins that number might be correct.

    1. Mr. M says:

      Thanks for the calculation. With some analysts saying 100 million cars in 2020 sold. This would be around 8-10% market share for EVs, sounds reasonable.

  6. sven says:

    Before we pronounce hybrids are declining or dead, we should wait to see what the next generation of hybrids from Toyota brings. Not only will the next-generation Prius due at the end of 2015 have 60 to 65 MPG city and highway, but Toyota will certainly make sure that they significantly reduced the cost to make a hybrid system. Reducing the cost of the hybrid system reduces the price premium in the MSRP for a hybrid over an plain ICE, and allows Toyota to offer it as a choice on more models.

    The Prius will also be the first Toyota vehicle to debut the “Toyota New Global Architecture” that’s meant to reduce costs by sharing parts and systems across platforms. Toyota also plans on putting Atkinson-cycle engines in ALL it’s non-hybrid vehicles, which will drive down the cost of the Atkinson engines that it puts in its hybrids. Toyota will also expand the number of models that have a hybrid option. It recently started selling the Lexus NX, a CUV smaller than the RX, with a hybrid option.