Global November Sales: New Record Of Over 237,000 Electric Cars

DEC 30 2018 BY MARK KANE 53

If December will bring at least 272,000, total sales in 2018 will be 2 million

November 2018 was another great month for plug-in electric car sales around the world. A new all-time record was set the third time in a row, and we are waiting for the fourth in December.

EV Sales Blog estimates that, in total, some 237,553 plug-in electric cars were sold last month (up 73%). More than two-thirds (67%) of sales are BEVs.

See more our sales reports for November 2018 here.

The tally for 11 months of 2018 is 1,728,629 at an average of 2% market share. We are almost certain that more than a quarter million people will start driving electric (purely electric or partially electric) in December.

Tesla Model 3 is the winner that takes it all – the best result for the month (19,255) and for the year (120,836).

The second best in November was BAIC EC-Series with 14,205 sales and it will overtake the Nissan LEAF in second place in December as the Japanese model noted “just” 8,276 sales per month. Overall, those are the top three all-electric (and in general plug-in) models.

As you can see on the table provided by EV Sales Blog, there are five different BYD models in top 20! On the other hand, Tesla has three, but those three are in top 7 (with a chance for top 6, including #1).

The new model in #20 is the new all-electric BYD Yuan with a decent 6,188.

In November, BYD sold the most plug-in cars, followed closely by Tesla. BAIC is not able to keep the pace of the top two, which will close the year with more than 200,000 sales (Tesla already did).

  • Tesla: 27,606 (204,885 YTD)
  • BYD: 28,742 (192,437 YTD)
  • BAIC: 18,315 (137,133 YTD)

Our thanks to EV Sales Blog for tallying up and estimating the individual sales by OEM

Categories: BYD, Nissan, Sales, Tesla

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53 Comments on "Global November Sales: New Record Of Over 237,000 Electric Cars"

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At this growth rate…(actually a little slower)
2018: 2m
2019: 3m
2020: 4.5m
2021: 7m
2022: 10m
2023: 15m
2024: 22m
2025: 33m
2026: 50m
2027: 75m
2028: game over

Yes, its happening!
BEV cost is declining faster and faster.
Just wait and see whats gonna happen when (the 200 miles) BEV reach phurchase cost parity with ice cars.. Hopefully the old oems will manage the sure coming switch in time..

The Switch to BEVs between 2020-30 is what Tony Seba predicted more than 6 years ago, just by looking at the costcurves

Take out the Chinese companies and globally it is Tesla and BMW as the top 2 global plug in brands.Yet in the U.S. everyone thinks it is doom and gloom for BMW on this forum.

Weird, I read all the comments and nothing “doom and gloom for BWM” by anybody. Only your weird slightly aggressive comment. Why?

Wow, must not have been reading much of the BMW related articles? Some good examples are the Evannex and the one with the Tesla Space weapon blowing up the BMW craft…ring any bells yet?

Also, based on the votes..most dont agree with you..

Actually, it is doom/gloom for the i3, i8, etc.
BMW is at least working towards decent EVs, so I do not see doom/gloom, just for current models.

This. The i3 is a now-obsolete weirdmobile and the i8 is a niche-market 3-cylinder “supercar” with a trivial electric range.

That said, we all know that BMW can and WILL do much better. They are just in a weak spot right now with the Model 3 killing them.

The prophecies of Doom and Gloom for BMW aren’t from their small but growing PEV sales. It’s the fact that their revenue has been collapsing while expenses are holding steady over the past year. If things keep unraveling for BMW, we’ll see their first quarter of losses next year, followed by full year losses in 2020 and bankruptcy in 2021.

And they’re too minor a player for the German government to care about and bailout – the German government will be too busy trying to keep VAG and Daimler afloat.

I have to differ with your last paragraph. The German gov will not allow any of these car makers to collapse. Car making provides the majority of Germany exports. As such, Merkel, or whoever else is in office, will throw billions at all of these companies as they realize that they are all a decade behind.

And in case you care to look at 3rd quarter or other facts, you’ll notice that 3rd quarter was also up on revenue (down a bit on profit due to investment in tech….as stated clearly in their announcements). So just third quarter was $25 BILLION in revenue and approx $1.5 BILLION in NET profit AFTER taxes. Oh $21 billion and $1 billion respectively were automotive revenue.

nope. Just doom for the BMW CURRENT EVs. But they are working towards decent EVs, that will not only compete against Tesla, but blow their ICE away.

It will be interesting what form BMW/Daimler cooperation takes but BMW seems to have rolled up their sleeves with the planned i4.

Well, all of the German car makers KNOW that Tesla is now WAY ahead of them. And they are the only ones rightly scared. They are also just about the only ones that have the right response to Tesla which is to copy Tesla by making great EVs and then get the price down.

I really think that the Germans and Tesla will be on top come 2023.
The rest of European legacy car makers will be hit/miss.
Japan will realize in about 1-2 years that they are in much deeper than they could believe and will start a crash program just like they are doing in rocket launches (due to SX and elon musk).
And China? Well, hopefully, the west will NOT allow them to dump their heavily subsidized junk on the west.

Obviously predictions of doom and gloom are nonsense. They aren’t going anywhere.

But BMW’s numbers above are over 70% short range PHEVs. Looking forward, they’re behind most big automakers when it comes to EVs.

What are they gonna use from the i3 in mainstream EVs? CFRP? Nope. A chassis tuned for skinny tires? Nope. Suicide doors? Nope. I doubt they gained any more useful feedback and experience than other automakers did with compliance cars.

The got some attention with the i3 and then did nothing with it.

Actually, Tesla has already reached cost parity with COMPETITIVE ice cars. IOW, the Tesla M3 costs less than a comparable BMW 3 series (or MB C Class), etc. Likewise, the Tesla MS is superior to comparable MB Class S.
Now, Tesla can not compete at the 25K level. In fact, they can not compete in the 35K level. BUT, that is coming shortly.

The real problem is that up until now, the other EVs have been jokes and do NOT compete against any ICE vehicles. But that changes in 2019.

By 2023 if the trend continues, other than few exceptions you’d be crazy to go for an ICE. I think it will be game over by 2023

that is possible. that’s the Ross Tessien hypothesis (see seeking alpha). He proposes that ICE sales will collapse a few years before there are enough EVs available (around 2023) because people will defer purchases.

That’s already happened in Norway.

Yes, but most of that is caused by Norway’s massive incentives, so not a good example.
The best way for other nations, esp. America, to speed up the move to ICE, would be to drop all subsidies for EVs. NOW.
Instead, they need to work on infrastructure by increasing gas/diesel SLOWLY. It should all increase by (.01|Euro|etc) per (gal|liter) each month for 25-100 months. If ppl know that fuel costs WILL go up steadily over the next couple of years, but slowly enough to not harm the economy, then ppl will have the money to afford EVs and they will switch.

Exactly! And Norway (admittedly a tiny market) shows that already. Haven’t seen data for the Netherlands.

In the next four years, what great new advance do you see happening to solve either the cost to range ratio, or the recharge rate and recharge infrastructure problem? I don’t believe it’s “game over” for the ICE until it can actually be seamlessly and economically replaced by the BEV. I don’t see anything in the next four years to coming to suggest game over. I do see continual growth though of the BEV segment and it becoming a more important to the automotive industry.

One word CHINA. Ev qouta starts from 2019, means actual competition among global automakers vs Chinese ones. Technical advancenment dont matter that much at this point.

Cost to range has already been largely solved as is being demonstrated in the 2020 models.
The recharge rate and recharge infrastructure issues were never really an issue for single family homes and daily driving. That segment is enough to drives sales for the next few years. Apartments have already started installing chargers to attract mellennials and others solving daily charging for them. That only leaves long distance charging which is being addressed now and will also be a non issue within 5 years.

So ya, new ICE sales will collapse in five years followed by used within 10 as repair centers, gas stations, and other support infrastructure go out of business.

10 years max, game completely over for ICE

don’t also forget investment from OEMs into ICE. Like with BYD where their plugin share is now like 60%, once they reach 80 or 90, would they really want to invest and maintain staff that are only producing 20% of their sales and shrinking, I think you’ll see of car manafacturers give up on ICE once certain thresholds are exceeded

Agreed. Interesting to see that 50% of Hyundai kona sales are the electric.

There will be no great new advanced and none are needed…
It will be more of the same with falling battery prices solving the cost to range ratio and slightly better and better chemistry allowing faster charging like the new Porsche will have…
Recharge infrastructure problem is the smallest as BEV sales take off so will the money flowing into the recharge infrastructure…

PHEVs can seamlessly replace ICE, given the proper incentives.

Pure EVs are continuing to come down in price and are compelling for the small aerodynamic sector like where the Model 3 is.

funny. I have been saying that here, and so many have been claiming that I am crazy on that.
BUT, it will likely be end of 2023. I think that will be the point where EVs will account for more than 1/2 of all car sales (not including trucks).
I would also guess that if Tesla comes out with a decent truck that by 2023, all ice truck sales will also plummet.

@ Scott

That trajectory is way too optimistic.

Slightly more than 10 million in 2025.
Slightly more than 30 million in 2030.

we’ll see who is right in 2025. 😉 But even if it’s your numbers, that’s only another 5 years to get to the same point.

A bit too optimistic.
You must remember that in order to produce 100 million EVs a year you need batteries, and there is no way the manufacturing infrastructure can be ready for this volume by 2028.

However, I do believe that ICE sales will plummet by 2028 or even sooner, as people will just wait for an EV and delay their car purchase.

“…you need batteries, and there is no way the manufacturing infrastructure can be ready for this volume by 2028.”

Why? It only takes two years to build a battery cell factory, large or small, and get it up and running at high production. Ten years is long enough to scale up global battery production sufficiently to supply the entire new automobile market, if the demand is there. In the short term I expect battery supply to lag behind demand for PEVs, but long term that shouldn’t cause a delay of more than a very few years.

huh. U might want to ask A123 about it only taking 2 years.

I assume that is global. Game over will be 2025.

2018 was an unusual year due to the introduction of the Model 3. 2019 probably won’t grow as fast since not to many groundbreaking new models being introduced & Tesla hitting the 200K tax-credit limit.

Another problem is that oil prices have cratered. $45/barrel makes EVs less compelling. There will be still be growth but it will be difficult. Hop

Is there any sales data on the Opel Ampera-e? I realize the numbers are supply constrained, but just curious.

The Chevy Bolt (Ampera-e in Europe), is #21.

The November sales result means that global plug-in passenger car sales achieved the 5 million milestone in December!

IEA’s Global EV Outlook 2018 reported a global stock of 3,109,050 plug-in electric passenger cars at the end of 2017. Adding the 1,728,629 reported by EV Sales Blogs means that 4,837,679 plug-in cars had been sold through November, just 162,321 short of 5 million plug-in passenger cars, and being December the peak month of plug-in sales and with sales expected to be north of 200K there is no doubt the 5 mi mark was passed a few days ago. In addition, if we account for the entire light-duty plug-in segment, there are about 100K utility vans sold mainly in Europe.

Check IEA’s figures here:

PS: The 3 million milestone was achieved in November 2017:

DO NOT check IEA figures. That organisation produces wrong numbers on purpose!
Like their photovoltaic estimates:

Do you have any facts or figures to back up your accusation? Or is this just another anti-government conspiracy theory?

It is still surprising that it is only 2% of global sales, but at some point this has got to start impacting global oil demand.

I think a reasonable estimate of average annual gasoline savings-per EV is probably 500 gallons~10 barrels of oil. I guess this works out to only 20 million barrels for all 2019 EV sales and something like 40-50 million for all EVs. No idea how this works out in the grand scheme of things, but maybe in the early 2020s we will start to see the freak-out over shrinking oil revenue.

It’s probably higher than a flat 2%. Total vehicle sales are flat or down this year so there is now way its 100M.

Every EV has an impact, but oil consumption is still growing about 1 million bpd each year. Continued strong EV growth won’t cause oil demand to actually drop for almost a decade. If the EV growth rate slows it will take even longer.

You are underestimating the growth of EVs by a lot. You have to understand there are cut off points that lead to exponential growth. As EVs get better and cheaper, the amount of people getting them will grow exponentially.

In addition, America and Europe should have more than enough charge network by end of next year.
By end of 2020, I am guessing that Canada, Australia, and maybe Mexico will be fully done.
With the ability to drive all over these nations, it will be impossible to stop EVs.

Last time the oil price collapsed supply had increased 2%. If demand is down 2%, the price will never recover until supply is cut. Death spiral within five years.

Nah. By 2025, we should see global oil consumption turned. We will likely see it in the west first. The reason is that our vehicles fleets are fairly stable (less than 1% growth). That means that the vast majority of new EVs are replacing older ICE vehicles.
OTOH, China’s vehicle fleet is not only growing fast, but the majority remains oil based. The problem is, that most of the new vehicles are NOT replacing old ones. They are expanding their fleet.

As such, China’s gas based fleet will not start reducing in size until EV account for almost 100% of new car sales.
OTOH, in the west, when we hit 50% EVs, the gas fleet will stop growth and start going down. Probably rapidly.

It’s already impacting gasoline sales in Norway:

Wow Tesla will sell 250,000 EV’s in 2018. Hopefully they can get to 500,000 in 2019.

It will be hard to get there, but not impossible.

Imagine Tesla reaching 500k and BYD 400k in 2019, on those two brands alone, the market would reach almost one million!

Add the rest of the crew, and 3 million PEVs in 2019 won’t be so hard to imagine…

Tesla is not likely to sell 250K EVs this year. However, their production rate will have hit that LEVEL by this time.
And by end of next year, Tesla should be at 500K EV production rate.
As such, for next year, they will likely have sold somewhere around 350-400K total.