Global Insights: The Electric Car Race, Automakers And Countries

Electric Cars

NOV 27 2017 BY EVANNEX 15

Electric Car

Tesla’s Model S (Instagram: pixersring) – Paving the path for the electric car race

WHICH COUNTRIES AND COMPANIES ARE POISED TO WIN THE ELECTRIC CAR RACE?

Electric cars are on a collision course with the status quo. Oilprice just published an article titled, Electric Vehicles And The 5 Trillion Dollar Market Transition, in which Peter Tertzakian writes, “There is little debate in my mind that big changes are forthcoming… When it comes to oil and autos, big is a word that is not big enough. Transitioning not one, but two of the largest industries in the world simultaneously is unprecedented. Both have multi-trillion-dollar roots” and the stakes are high.

That said, who’s poised to win this epic vehicle electrification race? Which countries and carmakers are best positioned? It turns out that there’s a company trying to figure all this out. Quartz reports that, “AlixPartners, a global business advisory firm, launched a new index this month to track the progress of companies and countries electrifying their vehicle fleets. As a whole, the world is barely off the starting line.”

Ladies and gentlemen, start your… ummm, batteries.

*This article comes to us courtesy of EVANNEX (which also makes aftermarket Tesla accessories). Authored by Matt Pressman.

Above: AlixPartners’ Marcus Kleinfeld and Jens Haas discuss global changes impacting electric vehicle adoption (Youtube: AlixPartners, LLP)

First, which automaker is leading the electric race towards the future?  Tesla is clearly the company that’s all-in on EVs, as that is all they produce.

“Tesla leads the world in devoting its entire lineup to electric vehicles, but… China’s market, split among dozens of EV manufacturers, has also seen several manufacturers make EVs a centerpiece of their lineup… The rest of the field will have to play catch up. Behind Tesla and eight Chinese companies, BMW brings up the rear with 0.7% share of is vehicles as EV in the second quarter of 2017.”

Electric Car

Electric vehicle share of each automakers volume in Q2 2017 (Chart: Quartz via AlixPartners)

Next, which country is out front on the world’s EV stage?

According to AlixPartners, China’s electric cars are really racking up the miles. And, “what ultimately matters [most] is miles. For electric cars to dent emissions and fossil fuel consumption, the cars must displace conventional vehicles. To measure this potential, AlixPartners summed the total electric battery range of all hybrid and EVs sold. It found that China leads the pack with total potential range of 13 million miles for all-electric vehicles, nearly triple the US, its nearest contender.” That said, there’s a big opportunity for automakers that sell their electric cars in China, especially Tesla.

Electric Car

China sells the most electric range capacity for e-cars in the world (Chart: Quartz via AlixPartners)

Not surprisingly, Tesla is looking to establish a wholly-owned factory in Shanghai in order to take advantage of this fast-growing customer base in the Chinese electric car market. It turns out that China is also the world leader for electric car registrations. In fact, “China seized the lead [from the U.S.] in 2014, and shows no signs of slowing. It is growing at twice the global average rate of 42% per year, according to Fleetcarma, despite being the world’s largest market. Globally, China accounted for 45% of all EV sales last year.”

Electric Car

China is leading the world in the number of new EV registrations (Chart: Quartzvia AlixPartners)

So China is the winning country in the worldwide electric car race, right? Not so fast. “No country has done more (on a per capita basis) than Norway to go electric. In September, all-electric and hybrid vehicles accounted for a record 60% of new car sales, reports the Financial Times (paywall)…. [and] those numbers are still rising fast thanks to generous subsidies and incentive policies. The country is aiming for zero emissions of all new cars by 2025. Even AlixPartners’ analysis which excludes hybrids and EVs with ranges below 311 miles (500 km)—most of the country’s EVs still have less than 400 km range—Norway is leading the way.”

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When analyzing electric vehicles as share of total sold, by country, Norway tops the charts (Chart: Quartz via AlixPartners)

So depending on how you look at it, Norway and China are leading the world (via different metrics) toward an exciting, electric vehicle future. And, although China has a number of fast-growing electric automakers, AlixPartners concludes, “Tesla Inc. is by far the top-ranking manufacturer in the auto-company measures, with sales in the second quarter of 2017 (the most recent quarter measured in the Index) totalling 6.6 million miles’ (10.6 million kilometers’) worth of e-range and with a fleet e-share of 100%.”

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Source: Quartz via AlixPartners

*Editor’s Note: EVANNEX, which also sells aftermarket gear for Teslas, has kindly allowed us to share some of its content with our readers. Our thanks go out to EVANNEX, Check out the site here.

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15 Comments on "Global Insights: The Electric Car Race, Automakers And Countries"

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Doesn’t seem very accurate if one excludes hybrids and EVs with ranges below 311 miles (500 km).

This inaccuracy is supported by contrasting the graph showing 11.5% of Norwegian car registrations being electric vs the Financial Times’ statement: In September, all-electric and hybrid vehicles accounted for a record 60% of new car sales.

I haven’t driven more than 300 miles in a single day in the last 20 years. Why does my car have to match your fat-ass energy-guzzling metrics?

To add, @Ron, I was agreeing with your statement. By “your metrics” I was referring to the AlixPartners’ criteria.

Because that “fat-ass energy-guzzling metric” does not equate to 300 miles of driving.

EV manufacturers don’t recommend charging to 100%, certainly not at high current chargers, and you must not burn it down to 0% charge (other threads here have suggested for frequent use, only use 80% SOC down to 20% SOC). Add in the extra heating demands of winter travel and the inherent reduction in efficiency of winter driving (snow tires are designed for traction, not low rolling resistance) and the real-world range might drop below 180 miles (100%->20% SOC) or under 150 miles (80%->20% SOC).

Other activities like towing a trailer (which I do for about 20% of my mileage) also destroy range.

That’s why we need to have big batteries, not because we have fat asses or like guzzling gas.

+1

> contrasting the graph showing 11.5% of Norwegian car registrations being electric vs the Financial Times’ statement: In September, all-electric and hybrid vehicles accounted for a record 60% of new car sales

I don’t know what is meant by the “car registrations” measure. Electric cars account for much less than 11.5% of the registered fleet, and much less again of all vehicles ever registered. My guess is that FT used the rather meaningless definition of “electric” in “EV” that encompasses hybrids, plug-in hybrids and electric cars. If so, I reckon 11.5% of the fleet may be accurate.

Electric cars in Norway account for about 3.5% of the fleet, and 20-25% of new car sales. Plug-in hybrids and EVs together account for about 50% of new car sales, quite possibly 60% in a record month, but plug-in hybrids took off only a year ago and there are more EVs than PHEVs in the fleet.

Wow, GM is well down the list even behind Mitsubishi and soon to be passed by Hyundai.

This is not related to the number of EVs sold, its the percentage of vehicles that the manufacturer sells.

GM sells alot of ICE based vehicles, which makes it’s EV sales low as a percentage.

It’s interesting that the chart titled “Electric vehicle share of each automakers volume” is inversely corralated to which car makers crank out the most 3+ years vision concept cars.

… ergo: Volume of EV “concept car marketing” is an inverse predictor of EV production car volume as a percentage of total sales.

I’m confused by the manufacturer graph. Since every vehicle they make is electric, why are they at 90.5% instead of 100%?

*edit: since every vehicle Tesla makes is electric, why aren’t they listed at 100%?

Tesla sells many non-EV products. (solar panels, charging infrastructure, storage, etc.) That must be the remaining 9.5%. Most of these metrics used are stupid and randomly pulled out of their behinds if you ask me. Why do they care if Tesla sells other stuff if all the cars they sell are electric? What purpose does that metric serve?

Similarly, they’ve filtered out all sub-311 mile cars. Huh? 311 miles in Europe could be a couple of countries away and in the northeast, might involve an entire day’s driving. Why do they care if people are buying low range all electric cars?

Maybe only 90.5% of Tesla vehicles sold were 500Km+ in range by whatever rating system they chose?

Yeah they are awfully sensitive about it. Not sure why.