Global EV Revenue to Hit $58 Billion in 2021- ABI Research

Tesla Model 3

MAY 27 2016 BY MARK KANE 7

Chevrolet Bolt EV

Chevrolet Bolt EV

According to an ABI Research forecast, the electric vehicle market will expand more than five times through 2021.

Expected plug-in revenues are pegged to reach $58 billion globally in ~5 years time as compared to today (2015).

Which of course would mean that current revenues already exceed $11 billion.

$58 billion is equivalent to some 1,350,000 Tesla Model 3s sold at average price of $43,000.

It sure sounds like a lot, but given that we’ve tracked ~550,297 plug-in sales made worldwide in 2015, the estimated number is quite likely far too low in reality – even if you assign a much lower average selling price.

Susan Beardslee, Senior Analyst at ABI Research said:

“The role of vehicle electrication in urban areas is part of a broader smart mobility model that includes shared vehicles, charging options, and driverless electric vehicle fleets of cars, buses, trams, and light rail. No singular option prevails; in fact, innovative manufacturers are creating ways for them to converge.”

“The U.S. is taking longer to embrace the trend, though, with many residents expressing hesitation to let go of their private, singular vehicles as we move toward a shared, smart mobility transportation model. Once the price point of electric vehicles starts to drop, as evident with Tesla’s Model 3 and the forthcoming Chevy Bolt, and manufacturers address range anxiety, we believe that the U.S. market will see a jump in its sales. Over time, we expect greater adoption through fleet purchases including Uber and Lyft.”

“While the market’s current lack of sufficient standards and infrastructure is impacting the broader adoption of electric vehicles, we believe that the greater access, variety, and flexibility of electric vehicles and increasing urban congestion will positively influence future electric vehicle deployment and adoption. The long-term forecasting of global energy needs from Exxon shows the sobering impact of an unsustainable 35% to 140% increase in energy requirements. Global consortia and public and private partnerships will continue to be leading efforts resulting in necessary change to our transportation industry.”

More about the topic in ABI Research’s Smart Transportation Service report.

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7 Comments on "Global EV Revenue to Hit $58 Billion in 2021- ABI Research"

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ModernMarvelFan

EVs, only if that means all PEVs..

Yes, that is possible.

BEVs alone? No way..

Samwise

It’s a large number but it’s not actually that unbelievable, thats 1 million at 58K each or 2 million at 29k each.
Thats a lot of cars, but given we Tesla are looking like making 500k vehicles somewhere in that price range, Nissan will probably be expecting over 100k new gen LEAFs when they arrive, the bolt and eGolf probably similar, BYD are probably just about doing that already in China but perhaps not in that price range, but yeah you get the idea.
It might be the top end of predictions but it’s not that much of a stretch seeing 2 million EVs sold in 2021 and thats porbably all it would take.

Rob Stark

That is the old goal.

Tesla is looking to deliver ~1M vehicles in 2021.

The stated goal is “almost 1M in 2020.”

Alaa

Tesla 1 million by 2019

Samwise

Oh and lets throw something like 100,000 electric buses at several hundred thousand dollars each as well.

przemo_li

Most of it will also come from luxury and entry luxury / premium, segments.

IMHO tipping point was when Tesla eat those shares in USA. Find me CEO who can with straight face can convince shareholders that to retake what he lost, he just need more of the same.

So EVs are here to stay either by Tesla or by Tesla killer.

Mikael

It seems reasonable if talking about BEVs.

330 000 BEV sales globally last year at $33500k average price = 11 billion

Average BEV price will drop, let’s say to about $30 000k, then it’s about 1,9 million BEVs that needs to be sold in 2021.
Or about a 34% increase in sales per year.
That is very much possible, especially with the big bump expected to come with the 200 mile BEVs.

Add PHEVs to the equation and it’s another few hundred billions to be added to the EV revenue.