Global BEV Sales Predicted to Exceed 216,000 in 2014 – Global PHEV Sales Expected to Eclipse 130,000

JAN 22 2014 BY ERIC LOVEDAY 14

BMW i3 to Launch in US in 2014

BMW i3 to Launch in US in 2014

Earlier this year, Navigant Research put out a whole host of predictions for 2014.

German Automaker VW Will Offer Several Plug-Ins by the End of 2014

German Automaker VW Will Offer Several Plug-Ins by the End of 2014

Among those predictions was this one for global sales of conventional hybrids, plug-in hybrids and battery-electric vehicles.

Before getting to those predictions, let’s first start with this this: 2.2 million electric-drive motors will be built in 2014.

Now on to those sales predictions we go.

  • Hybrid Global Sales Predictions 2014 – 1.9 million
  • Battery-Electric Global Sales Predictions 2014 – 216,235
  • Plug-In Hybrid Global Sales Predictions 2014 – 130,226

It’s time now to discuss.

Source: Green Car Congress

Categories: General, Sales

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14 Comments on "Global BEV Sales Predicted to Exceed 216,000 in 2014 – Global PHEV Sales Expected to Eclipse 130,000"

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Are electric bicycles counted for BEVs? for cars only: i think it will take 2-4 years until bevs overtake phevs. Greetings

In terms of global sales, I thought they already had. What is the breakdown for global sales of BEVs versus PHEVs in 2013?

Its hard for me to comment on global sales because I concentrate so much on USA sales. So I won’t comment on global sales. But for USA sales, I predict PHEVs to start outselling BEVs by a good portion. It will be interesting to see what portion of BMW buyers opt for the REX version of the i3. In the same light, it will be interesting to see how many buyers will pick the (rumored) Focus Energi over the Focus Electric. In both the case of the i3 and the Focus it will give a unique perspective into the public demand of PHEV vs BEV. Because for the first time buyers will have the choice of essentially the same car with two choices of electrified drive trains. Up to this point people had to make decisions between cars like the Leaf and Volt in order to chose BEV or PHEV and there are many other differences in these cars that could sway buyers. Personally, I’m predicting that most Americans will go for PHEV for the next decade or so until charging infrastructure is more mature. And while I do consider the BEV market to also be a growth industry, I… Read more »

That has been my sentiment though the introduction of Tesla certainly has altered that math.

Here is a rough extrapolation to the data. The US market has been roughly speaking half of the global market. That will clearly change over time and hopefully in 2014, but if we consider the numbers 216,000 + 130,000/2 = 173,000, I would hope this indicates a number north of 120,000 for the US. Hey, where is Josh with his 2014 predictions??

“until charging infrastructure is more mature” “America has too much wide open space. It is much harder to get charging infrastructure built out than places like Japan or Europe” I believe this type of thinking is actually holding back EV sales. 90%+ of all charging is currently done at home overnight. Most people don’t have the need to make long distance trips on a regular basis, and hauling around the extra batteries (at extra cost) and/or an ICE and associated bits is more “peace of mind” than actual need. Don’t get me wrong, there is a definite market for PHEV’s or REX type EV’s, but many people would be perfectly satisfied with a “pure” EV – particularly if they have another vehicle. As batteries get better, we’ll likely find cars with a variety of ranges (and prices). My personal opinion is 100 miles of real world range (in most any weather), is the sweet spot. We’re just starting to see some range/price options. If the i MiEV is actually available at $15K (or less in some areas) and/or a $99/m lease, it might be a game changer. The Smart ED at $139/m is very successful. Neither of these cars are… Read more »

I disagree for three reasons. First of all, I’m an early adopter and proponent of EVs. And even I am finding the lack of charging stations to be an issue. Sure, my Leaf does fine for my daily commute. But for those other trips, I find myself often driving my wife’s Volt instead. Most of those trips would be doable if there were charging stations nearby my destination. But it makes no sense to drive 10 miles out of my way to find a station. I’m seriously thinking my next car will be some sort of PHEV.

The second reason has more to do with the general public. People who have never driven an EV really do need that comfort zone of knowing they can charge up anywhere they want.

The third reason has to do with those long interstate trips. Sure, you may eventually be able to do that in a Tesla but we all know that not everyone can afford one of those. So a PHEV is the logical alternative.

Sensible comment.

In the US, rich and vast, the pattern is in favor of PHEVs.

In the rest of the developed world, it is more in favor of BEVs, slightly so as long as the infrastructure isn’t there yet, eventually way more so.

The BEV sales prediction looks a tad optimistic to me (more like 150 000?)
The PHEV sales prediction looks quite pessimistic.

Good article. Where the US PHEV vs BEV ratio is now about 3:1, I would expect that to change to about 2:1 over the next several years [after 2014], as the batteries improve in cost and capacity, and the charge networks get built out.

What planet are you guys from ? BEV to PHEV in 2013 for the US was nearly 1:1 (46k vs 49k).

I guess since Jay doesn’t sub-total BEV & PHEV clearly, people don’t know.

http://www.mynissanleaf.com/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=15457

Navigant’s prediction is based on no world events that could impact the availability and price of oil. I think the demand for a vehicle with a plug would rise sharply if there was any gas crisis. It has happened before. Maybe we are due for another. The Olympics could be the spark for some trouble. Several countries in the Middle East and North Africa seem to be heading for civil war if they are not having a civil war already. I can hope I am wrong about any gas crisis troubles, but it could happen in 2014.

Assuming it is easy to ramp up the production and assembly of battery chargers, one could expect the Plug-in Hybrid numbers to double (for a late year crisis) or triple (for an early year crisis). Batteries are harder to ramp up, so a 50% increase in BEVs would be a stretch. It would make 2014 another year of product availability shortages.

Just to be sure – Volt and i3Rex are counted as BEV, while something like PiP is PHEV? Or are just Leaf, Model S, Smart ED and so on counted BEVs?

Volt = PHEV.
i3 = BEV

i3Rex is… well… hmm… I think I will make up my mind when I see what the ratio of REx vs. no REx will be and statistics over how many kilometers are electric and how many with gas. Until then it’s just one of the 50 shades of gre…green.. =)

General rule is does it have an ICE then it’s an PHEV (where the Volt is an serie hybrid and not a parallell hybrid like for example the Outlander).

My prediction for 2014 is about 230 000 PHEVS and about 200 000 EVs. So about 430 000 plug-ins in total.

And that is not counting India or China (but I will count western cars sold in China and eventual chinese cars in Europe/USA if there are any).