Gestamp Founder Says Its Not Yet Time For Electric Car Revolution


Whether this is another curious case of not seeing the forest because of the trees or a bold prediction for the car industry – remains to be seen

Gestamp Automoción is a Spanish multi-national engineering company. The company is one of the leaders of the European automotive industry. So when their founder and president Francisco Riberas states that it’s not the time for the electric car revolution just yet, people listen up.

“It’s not just innovation, you have to be profitable, too, and you have to produce a lot.” While Volkswagen manufactures 43,000 vehicles per day, Tesla barely reaches 40,000 EVs in one year “because making cars is not so easy, even if they are electric cars,” he says.

While Riberas isn’t a hard-headed case like the Lexus president, as he acknowledges it’s a matter of time before electric and autonomous vehicles become commonplace, he still thinks it’s not going to happen any time soon.

“Until a certain critical mass is reached, the evolution of the electric car will not begin to accelerate,” Riberas, who heads a multinational, Tier 1 supplier of metal products to the auto industry, says at a recent meeting of business journalists at Menéndez Pelayo International University here.

Even though the International Energy Agency’s 2017 forecast reports that by 2025, the global fleet of EVs will reach a number of between 40 and 70 million vehicles, Riberas’ stance on the matter is completely different. He believes that, globally, by the year 2025, just 15% of the cars produced will be fully electric. He points to the potential obstacles such as battery recycling and sufficient power generation needed to sustain the charging infrastructure as the culprits for the lower EV adoption rates.

Furthermore, he’s the second high-level executive that’s mentioned battery recycling as a potential bottleneck for higher EV adoption rates – the same argument was stated by the Lexus president a few days earlier.

Riberas even goes so far as stating that EV’s benefits can be offset by factors such as power generation sources and air pollution in certain countries. While we tend to agree that is a big factor – even in the developed countries – minimizing the effect of air pollution, in, for example, China and containing it to one larger source instead of millions of small ones, might be a good intermediary solution to a growing problem.

“For example, in China, which is the country where the electric vehicle fleet grows fastest, electricity is obtained mainly by burning coal and, consequently, emitting large amounts of (carbon dioxide) in the process.”

Further arguments for the less than stellar electric vehicle adoption rates come from the corner of the production industry itself. Riberas claims that currently, electric vehicles, at such low production volumes, simply don’t adhere to the scale of production rule and necessary profit margins arising from higher production numbers. While this may be true, the recent examples of growing production numbers for most car makers producing completely EV cars, are signifying the trend will soon be reversed.

“It’s not just innovation,” Riberas says. “You have to be profitable, too, and you have to produce a lot.” While Volkswagen manufactures 43,000 vehicles per day, Tesla barely has reached 40,000 EVs in one year, “Because making cars is not so easy, even if they are electric cars,” he says.

Riberas additionally warns against the ongoing war on existing propulsion technologies. He cited the trend of demonizing diesel engines in the European markets, despite their CO2 emissions being lower than their gasoline counterparts. While we tend to agree that both diesel and petrol technology has come a long way in the last decade or so, it’s still not on the same level of CO2 free electric vehicles.

Clearly, the CO2 emissions are lower than those of gasoline engines, but those engines produce the much unwanted nitric oxide (NO) and nitrogen dioxide (NO2)  gases. And we all know that these poisonous gases can have adverse effects on both human health and the environment. For example, in Britain alone, known NO2 emissions have been estimated to kill 23,500 people every year, according to aerosol science professor Ian Colbeck of the University of Essex, southeastern England.

“We are demonizing diesel vehicles when they are now much cleaner than five years ago and the diesel engines to come will even be much cleaner, but nobody seems to want to talk about it,” Riberas says.

After all the attacks Riberas made against electric vehicles, he furthermore went after autonomous vehicles as well. While we can grasp his arguments quite clearly, one cannot think of viewing this in any other way, then the old guard, fearing the future and demonizing something that we feel will be the most important advancement in the last 50 years. To add more to rant, he doesn’t believe that two of the biggest companies in the world – Apple and Google – sitting on piles of cash and numerous R&D labs worldwide, will be able to produce their own electric car any time soon.

“It has been widely reported that within five years, we are going to live in a world of ‘robocabs.’ but that will take much longer to happen,” he says, noting adequate legal frameworks for autonomous vehicles are not yet in place.

Riberas doubts a technology company such as Google or Apple will produce their own cars. “In any case, they would buy an established car manufacturer,” he says.

Source: Wards Auto

Categories: General


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96 Comments on "Gestamp Founder Says Its Not Yet Time For Electric Car Revolution"

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Maybe someone should inform Mr Riberas that Tesla made over 100k vehicles, not 43k,in 2017. And will make over 200k this year. And that Tesla will be profitable starting in the second half of 2018.

Lol, Mr Ribas is like the man who asks someone the time and writes it down so he always knows what it is.

I believe he meant the first year of the Model 3, in which Tesla made ~40k in contrast with Musk’s bizarre claim they’d make 100-200k in the first six months. Riberas is simply making the point that mass production is a lot harder and takes longer to scale up than people think. Even “geniuses”.

Tesla has made 50,000 Model 3.

not quite yet, I predict the 50K Model 3 will be made this weekend.

Dr. Miguelito Loveless

According to Bloomberg, 50K already passed earlier this week

Your claim is outdated. Check your source again.

Bloomberg estimates 52k+, but has issues with shutdowns such as July 1-4. Best available data says 49k through July 18 (Tesla’s announced 41,030 from 7/1/17-6/30/18 plus 8000 the first 18 days off July). At 500-550/day recently, today is 50k Day!

Yes building cars is so incredible hard that Tesla fell all of of 6 months behind on a schedule that nobody, including Elon Musk thought was remotely realistic anyway.

You are being foolish and short sighted. Tesla will,have over 400k models built by the end of next year.

Regardless of the number I think his point stands. 100k versus 43k really doesn’t matter since it’s still a little over 2 days of VW production. That’s just VW production. Now add GM and Toyota and you start understanding just the size of the auto manufacturing industry. That doesn’t remove the achievements of Tesla it just puts it into prospective. This revolution has just stated. In the end Tesla might be a footnote or a headline.

Is that VW’s output across all models and badges? I am wondering why he doesn’t compare the numbers to comparable vehicles like Panamera, Cayenne and BMW 3. Probably wouldn’t looks so good I guess.

Pigs will start flying sooner then Tesla will become really profitable, not just as financial engineering feature of single quarter.

All tru cultists, please keep denying basic math as usual.

Only if you stop denying the math of what Tesla has achieved so far. Far beyond any other manufacturer for growth rate and level of innovation.

Being profitable isn’t the same thing as making profit on cars sold.

Tesla reinvests extremely heavily and that’s the main reason they lose so much money.

Even though the International Energy Agency’s 2017 forecast reports that by 2025, the global fleet of EVs will reach a number of between 40 and 70 million vehicles, Riberas’ stance on the matter is completely different. He believes that, globally, by the year 2025, just 15% of the cars produced will be fully electric.

I hate it when journalists try to make a contrast but use completely different metrics. It’s either sloppy journalism or intentionally misleading to fit their agenda.

Let’s look at some numbers:
2017 Global Car sales = 86M
2017 Global EV sales = 1.2M

If the total number of cars doesn’t grow (it will), 15% of the cars produced means 12.9M. Assuming an exponential growth of EV sales, to get from 1.2M to 12.9M in 8 years means 35% market growth year-over-year (12.9/1.2)^(1/8). Summed up over those 8 years, this comes to 46M cumulative sales. Which puts it exactly in line with the IEA’s prediction of 40-70M sales.

That wasn’t very hard to figure out. Isn’t math fun?

Anyone who suggests EV sales growth will be less than 100% every year is portrayed as undermining EVs.

Hmm, 100% growth every year for the next 8 years means that in 2025, there will be 307M EVs sold. I don’t think that’s quite right either. The power of compounding growth.

2^8 * 1.2M = 307.2M

I’d say that anyone who suggests that EV sales growth will sustain 100% every year is not doing the math.

It means they haven’t learned the “S Curve” yet.
But, reality is a hard teacher.

No sane person has predicted ev sales doubling every year for any significant number of years… are being foolish and taking only an extreme, unwarranted view as reason for your stance.

The fake news reporters , reading from a script ,written by BIG 0IL.. The money making rich and controlling special interest ..

Exactly! Riberas probably got his annual production estimate from the SAME IEA REPORT that forecasts a 40-70m fleet by 2025.

Also, what do piles of cash and R&D labs have to do with Apple/Google manufacturing their own cars? Apple doesn’t even manufacture their own phones, for crying out loud! Google clearly prefers to partner, working with FCA and Jaguar, while in advanced talks with Honda and others.

I’m excited about EVs and robotaxis, but my timelines aren’t a lot different than Mr. Riberas’s. It takes time to ramp this stuff.


Kudos for doing the math but I believe he was referring to BEVs exclusively while you show EVs (BEVs + PHEVS). If you use 600k BEVs as your starting point then you have a CAGR much closer to 50%.

While I agree with Riberas that we aren’t there yet I disagree with his reasoning. Although we’ve had dramatic declines in the price of batteries we’ve only gone from absurdly expensive to unacceptably expensive. we’re going to need 2-3 more years for battery prices to reach point where ICE manufacturers have to convert in mass. I would peg that time frame as 2021-2023 which happens to coincide with when I think we’ll see FAVs hitting their stride.

With FAVs it isn’t all about the units deployed. It is about the Miles replaced and there we have a multiplier effect.

It is amazing to me how so many smart people on this site, I’m assuming you are gasbag. think the inviteable bev boom is still so dependent on the cost of batteries.
The price of batteries could be practically zero for all but Tesla and other automakers will not increase production dramatically well into the middle of next decade…at least for USA consumption.

All bev builders, sans Tesla, are building compliance evs. The numbers built, markets where sold and simple common sense tell us that. All except Tesla will pretty much only produce engough evs to get enough credits so they can sell their fossil fool vehicles for profits. That won’t change until it’s too late for some of them a few years from now and Tesla has such a big bev market share many folk will avoid new bev models from old automakers since they have no experience.

BEV sales in 2017 were actually more like 850,000. And assuming a more realistic 100,000,000 total cars sold in 2025, we get about 43% CAGR for BEVs, which gives a total of about 47,000,000 BEVs by 2025.

It’s never a good time for EVs, but thanks to Mr. Musk that time is getting closer and it’s no longer in afar in the future.

Trust, once lost, is very tough to regain. An old expression comes to mind, “Once bitten, twice shy.” Diesel may be cleaner now than before, but the manufacturers did great harm to the public for short term gain and this is an enduring part of the consequence.

Trump’s EPA will allow Diesel Trucks to ship new gliders ( body/frame ) with old engines. = Massive Truck Pollution.

Another Euro point of view

“He points to the potential obstacles such as battery recycling and sufficient power generation needed to sustain the charging infrastructure as the culprits for the lower EV adoption rates”.

Going through EV enthusiast sites like Insideevs, Electrek, Green car reports, Pushevs etc. I never but never came across an article about li-ion battery recycling. Its seems that on one side the industry specialists are saying that it is a dirty and costly business and on the other side the EV enthusiasts are brushing it off saying they are sure it is not a problem and anyone saying it is a challenge is spreading FUD. So Insideevs even if the backstage of the car industry is probably not your cup of tea it would be wonderful to have an article about where we stand regarding technology & cost with that specific issue of recycling EV batteries.

Another Euro point of view

Here I found something, seems the recycling costs are indeed a problem, here it is focused only on lithium, wondering about the cost of recycling the other raw materials such as nickel & cobalt:

That article actually sounds very positive. It is from 2011 and at that point I time it had the cost of recycling lithium at five times the cost of lithium from brine. With the cost of recycling declining with the increase in volume and the price of lithium having increased about four fold we should be at the point where recycled lithium is now financially viable. Unfortunately the volume is dwarfed by the growing demand meaning it will have little moderating force.

What’s the cost of exploring, mining and shipping new materials to a battery factory. An order of magnitude more than recycling.

Another Euro point of view

Here another article about EV batteries recycling, by FT:

Seems to be an industry with a bright future.

Apparently, this is the new script.
Will batteries be recycled?
Of course, there’s huge demand for home battery storage.
And of course the batteries will be recycled. It’s a far richer vein of materials then exploring for and digging a new mine for materials.

Exactly. At some point, they have to be recycled, but they have a looong rich life after they come out of the EV. Now a lot of the 80 mile BEVs will follow this path for 20-25kWh batteries. PHEVs, on the other hand, will keep driving them for a long time. For example, you have a gen Volt that is 10+ years old that used to get an average 40 miles AER. At some point, though most have seen little degradation due to Chevy’s design, it will get less. So you have a 10+-year-old PHEV that now gets 35 AER but still goes on gas with little degradation. You think the used market is going to pull that battery? Not a chance. I am also guessing that a 200 mile BEV that is 10+ years old will find a market with those who bought an 80 mile BEV for another 10 years. So yes, they get recycled at some point, but if they make it 20 years that really changes the recycling math and the impact on manufacturing and the environment.

Another Euro point of view

Yes meanwhile I read many articles about this subject. Seems not this recycling issue is already manageable, even more so when taking into account long service life of those batteries when using them for stationary storage in after EV life. Then recycling costs as compared to this “long life” seems to be OK. Anyway I am a bit sad to see that we need to check this info on mainstream media and not in EV sites.

I’m with you on this, I would like to see more on the subject because there is alot of potential for these batteries when they leave the car. There is no recycling needed now because at least in US every totaled ev seems to be sought after its batteries for all sorts of projects. These batteries are valuable.
On another note, when is the last time you went on a ICE website and among performance car discussions you saw articles about motor oil recycling, or oil spill pollution? You seem to have this misplaced idea that evs are not better than ice or that they need to be perfect in ordr to replace ice.

Another Euro point of view

“when is the last time you went on a ICE website and among performance car discussions you saw articles about motor oil recycling, or oil spill pollution”.

Thinking of it that’s right, now I would be glad to see EV websites raising the bar a little bit.

“Going through EV enthusiast sites… I never but never came across an article about li-ion battery recycling.”

Then you’re not looking very hard.

There is a reason why car manufacturers have alternate use of the batteries after they have done their job in a car. In order to recycle them for a fair price, they have to a build huge facilitiy. Talking 1 facility in all of Europe to recycle all the car batteries in one location. This construction would probably have to be funded partly by the EU to begin with, as cost would be high, and profits from recycling would be low – even with all the recycling done in a single facility. So, for now – he is right about the lack of battery recycling. An EV has a lover level of recycling then a standard vehicle due to the battery. An alternative use of the battery is not a permanent solution for recycling. It will however extend the use of the battery, and may reduce CO2 emissions for an extended period. There is also a fact that car batteries have to last a long time (a long distanced) before they have saved the CO2 it cost to build them. So the best for EVs are either small (but energy dense) batteries that can be charged fast, so the vehicle… Read more »

You missed this one, and Tesla says they will be recycling all their used batteries,

Diesel Head Riber-ass should do some research before he runs his mouth , it’s the same BS coming from both sides of his mouth as all the ICE promoters . People want EV’s for many “good” reasons and if everyone with “special interests” stopped BSing and got with the program , it would create “JOBS” plus accelerate the transition to renewable energy and EV’s . Riber-ass much like all deniers is full of “BS” excuses to protect his own money making agenda…

Most CEO’s are clueless and out of touch with the tech in their own industry. But they look good in suits on stage!

I quit listening to most of them.

“because making cars is not so easy, even if they are electric cars” – No, because Tesla is new car company, VW not. It is impossible to go from 0 to 10M cars/year in less than 10 year. Even child in kindergarten knows that.

Nope. Not if your shareholders want you too.

Mr. Riberas I will believe your claim that diesels today are much cleaner than 5 years ago if you park a brand new diesel guzzler in your garage for 5 consecutive hours with engine running and close all external doors and windows on your garage. And you sit in the diesel guzzler without any bathroom breaks. If you survive I will believe you LOL CONNECT THE DOTS ON CLEAN AIR WAKE UP EARTHLINGS

Will you do the same with a coal or NG plant as it generates EV juice?

Another Euro point of view

That would be very dignified end for Mister G, his epitaph would read: “I did not survive to my own 10’000th silly comment” 🙂

Will you do the same with a diesel refinery?

“Will you do the same with a coal or NG plant as it generates EV juice?”

I’d be willing to do the same with the PVA that generates my EV juice. EV + PVA is actually very common in CA where EVs are common. In fact in the Bay Area they are mainstream.

Elon's mini submarine

Unless you have a PowerWall, if you’re charging up your EV at night, then you’re using grid electricity that’s generated to a large extent by a baseload natural gas power plant. The electricity generated by your PVA during daylight hours was consumed by you and your neighbors in the daytime as it was generated.

Washington State and many regions of Canada get about 90% of their grid power from hydroelectric energy. And until quite recently, France got about 90% of its electricity from clean nuclear power.

I’ll be quite happy to breathe the “emissions” from a hydroelectric dam or a nuclear power plant cooling tower. 🙂

Elon's mini submarine


That’s the old “long tailpipe” argument. For it to work, the tailpipe would have to be long enough to extend into Mister G’s mother’s basement where this single, middle aged man-child resides rent free. LOL CONNECT THE DOTS ON MOVING OUT OF YOUR MOM’S BASEMENT AND GETTING A LIFE EARTHLINGS


HELL NO I wouldn’t want to live 100 miles in the vicinity of a coal plant or NG facility, as a matter of fact I wouldn’t live near a coal slurry reservoir that pollutes ground water. But I would live near a solar farm with battery storage anytime. Give it time and we will slowly have a cleaner grid CONNECT THE DOTS ON CLEAN AIR WAKE UP EARTHLINGS and stop voting for TRUMP owned politicians

New diesels indeed don’t produce enough carbon monoxide to reliably kill you on spot. So you may start getting your head out of sand.

What I don’t see he is talking about, that all “new diesels” inevitably become “old diesels” few years later, and their great lab achievements go out of the window (or exhaust pipe) in real life. Even if it was (unlikely) true from the beginning like during cold start and short ride in winter. Sensors start malfunction, filters get clogged, catalytic converters get removed, custom cheat devices added to reduce maintenance costs. You get the same old diesel as 30 years ago, with black fumes and stink you can smell from far far away. Not to mention ultrafine particles that are invisible, have no odor, but are the worst.

Wait a minute let’s do a little experiment and find out. I’m in central Florida and have a 2 car garage we can rent a brand new diesel and record the whole thing, heck you can become a youtube superstar LOL CONNECT THE DOTS ON CLEAN AIR WAKE UP PULL YOUR HEAD OUT OF YOUR STINKHOLE

The article states Mr. Riberas said he does not believe Apple and Google would be able to produce cars, whereas the nested quote states that he doubts they would produce cars. There is a difference between the ability to do something and the choice to do something. Apple and Google certainly have sufficient cash stockpiles to do whatever they choose, but that does not mean all investments are good ideas for the company. I think it is just as silly to assume large technology companies are going to start becoming car manufacturers as it would be to assume that Bill Gates’ charity will pay your credit card bills.

Yup. Apple certainly has the cash to start an EV manufacturing company, should they really want to. It certainly would be a good way to get rid of all their liquid assets! 😉

But it makes no sense for a high-profit-margin light industry making consumer electronics to attempt to enter the thin-profit-margin heavy industry of making automobiles, EVs or otherwise.

I thought perhaps Apple would make self-driving control systems for auto makers to put into their cars, but if Apple is working on that they’re being very, very quiet about it!

Autonomous vehicle fleets are high margin. 30-50% annual return on manufacturing cost. What business would shy away from that?

That seems very very unlikely. You can only achieve such returns when you have a strong unique selling proposition and/or very strong customer binding — and vehicle fleets do not sound like a business where that would be the case. When there is more than one viable player, as soon as supply catches up to demand, margins should go way down due to competition.

Apple really don’t make stuff. They design a product (in cooperation with Foxconn in China) and then Foxconn, Pegatron and others in China assemble the products with parts from Samsung, LG, TSMC. I like Tesla because they make their own stuff. I’m not talking down Foxconn, as I have been to the factory a few years ago, and the equipment was cutting edge – and a massive logistics system. Not that I would want to work there, but they can make the quality the customers want. Impressive to see they make Nintendo, Playstation and xbox in the same factory, and a lot of other products. I’m just not a fan of companies that outsource production. In the end, I feel it will prevent progress and new developments that could happen with several manufacturing companies developing new ideas and solutions. Think about how Tesla would be, if they just outsourced all their production to other companies and much of the hardware development. I don’t think they would have the same motors, control electronics, batteries and so on. They would not be leading, in the same way they are now – and other companies would not take them as a threat, and… Read more »

That argument doesn’t add up. Mobile phones are highly competitive despite manufacturing being outsourced. It simply means that competition between manufacturing foundries is decoupled from competition between companies designing the products.

He is correct in some sense. EV other than Tesla are not yet time. People aren’t going to put up with waiting for 9 cars at 2 handle DCFC, almost all of them free chargers, even if that’s a rare time they use DCFC. Meanwhile, Tesla is smartly managing their charging network trying to keep the customers happy. 400K+ Tesla 3 reservations is a revolution. See another ridiculous photo of local DCFC with 7 cars (another photo shows 9 cars) at 2 handle site, dominated by free chargers.

Is this the same location as the other photo you recently shared? If so, I’d be seriously pushing for more chargers. This is the scene I dread, but fully expect to see soon on the NYS Thruway. They are installing 1 charger at a handful of service plazas in the next year.

Yup, same location as that other photo showing 9 cars.

If they add more handles, cars clogging up other locations will simply move here, clogging up this place just as much. Problem is free chargers, especially Maven. The photos show most of them are free chargers.

Another station 5 miles away has one CCS and often has 3 or 4 cars waiting, which is equivalent to 6 to 8 cars at 2 handle site, almost always free charging Maven Bolts, Leaf, i3. Because of clogging, I often see Leaf and i3 come and go, probably because they don’t really need the charge, but it’s free to plug in. More handles will have those guys charging tapered to hell (ie, 90%+) even when not needed and wait will be just as bad.

The question I have is this – would that charger even be there if not for the “free charging” programs by Nissan and BMW? My understanding is that the program itself is a partnership between Nissan, BMW, and EVGo. Nissan and BMW agree to pay EVGo to install and operate the chargers, thus guaranteeing a revenue stream. It’s a great way to jump-start the infrastructure. If EVGo had to rely on the likes of pay customers like you and me, they probably wouldn’t have enough of a business case to build out chargers at all.

So I don’t believe the issue is as black and white as you portray it.

Initial chargers were put in place in CA by money from lawsuit against NRG.

Even if they got some money from Nissan and BMW, they could’ve managed it smartly such as “waiting” notification to determine when to cut or even simply limit to 40 kW or above on average for 1 minutes to discourage tapered to hell EV. But nope, customer experience doens’t matter when they can sell to the highest bidder.

Next up might be Koch brothers offering free charging to every EV. That will really kill EV adoption (other than Tesla).

That’s exactly why I told you a few days ago that the Supercharging network is completely different (better) than DCFC.

I told you that Superchargers are better because they prohibit high usage and commercial use to your wrong argument that it’s handles + power. Photos show they are commercial users and free chargers probably using DCFC every day. If not for them, even single handle at this site might be enough. If Tesla managed like eVgo, Superchargers would be even more clogged with 400k+ Tesla 3 coming soon.

Your photo appears to have only one new Leaf which would mean the other two are paying customers. If the one free charging leaf were removed from the equation it would provide little relief.

Also this problem seems to be specific to San Diego based on the busiest charging sites that were posted last year. Do you have s theory on why that is? The Bay Area has significantly higher market penetration for EVs but charging is less an issue. Is there a paucity of chargers in SD? Does SDGE have something to do with it?

One old Leaf was charging at 22kW at 75%. If he’s a paying customer, I doubt he’s plug in when so high and tapered so much. i3 is free charger since he recently acquired it. But even if you assume 2 Leaf + SparkEV are payers, that’s still 4 (57%) that are free chargers.

Biggest problem nowadays are Maven Bolts. Since driving is their job, they can sit around DCFC if there’s no customer. Even if SDGE provide free charging at home, Maven Bolts hanging out at DCFC isn’t going to change when it’s free for them. I don’t blame Maven drivers, it’s the stupid policy of free charging.

He’s a Spaniard….therefore, doesn’t know what he’s talking about. If you disagree, then by all means invest in his company.

Another Euro point of view

Wow that is an improvement on your comment above. Amazing, I did not think it was possible in such short period of time.

“Riberas, who heads a multinational, Tier 1 supplier of metal products to the auto industry,…”
Perhaps he should be more concerned with 3D printed parts, or injection molded CFRP from people like Teijin.

“sufficient power generation needed to sustain the charging infrastructure”

That all one needs to know to dismiss his ‘expertise’ out of hand.

Even an overnight shift of the entire LDV fleet to EV’s would increase energy consumption by a modest 20% in any industrialised country. But even if sales of EV’s takes off, it will take decades to replace the fleet, giving utilities ample time to adapt.

Tesla barely making 40 k vehicles per year? The 40k per month mark is within spitting distance.

And all the well-known and even more well-debunked talking points about coal electricity/battery recycling/ etc.

Just another exec that sees his business endangered and is spreading FUD. He’ll be dragged kicking and screaming into the 21st century or go down with his ship.

Pretty much what my comment was going to be. He’s knows just enough about EVs (someone fed him the FUD talking points from 10 years ago), that he can regurgitate them when needed. I would like to hear his responses in debate form, when each one of his *points* is refuted with factual data.

One minute the established auto manufacturers are claiming they can outdo Tesla in moments ‘if the wanted to’, the next, they’re claiming they can’t produce the volume to make it profitable. Of course they can’t – because they keep delaying getting started!

On the bright side, he is merely the head of a Tier 1 supplier. Auto manufacturers aren’t locked into their Tier 1 suppliers so there is room in the market for a new one. It is kind of tricky to get there, but not impossible either.

Gotta love that diesel exhaust: “More than 90% of DPM (diesel particulate matter) is less than 1 µm in diameter (about 1/70th the diameter of a human hair), and thus is a subset of particulate matter less than 2.5 microns in diameter (PM2.5). Most PM2.5 derives from combustion, such as use of gasoline and diesel fuels by motor vehicles, burning of natural gas to generate electricity, and wood burning. PM2.5 is the size of ambient particulate matter air pollution most associated with adverse health effects of the air pollutants that have ambient air quality standards. These health effects include cardiovascular and respiratory hospitalizations, and premature death.” “DPM (diesel particulate matter) also plays an important role in climate change. A large proportion of DPM is composed of BC. Recent studies cited in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report estimate that emissions of BC (black carbon) are the second largest contributor to global warming, after carbon dioxide emissions. Warming occurs when BC particles absorb sunlight, convert it into infrared (heat) radiation, and emit that radiation to the surrounding air. A recent California-specific study showed that the darkening of snow and ice by BC deposition is a major factor in the… Read more »

Almost all new gasoline engines will have to be fitted with a particle filter too now. The particles from a gasoline direct injected engine produce massive amounts of tiny particles – even smaller then diesel particles, that will get deeper in the lungs.
Particle filters should be mandatory on all ICE cars.
A normal modern diesel car with an active particle filter will emit less particles then the average gasoline car.
Carbon black is a major filler material in all car tires. That is one reason why road dust is carsinogentic.

Hey stop bringing science into this forum you will scare away 99% of conservatives. CONNECT THE DOTS ON CLEAN AIR WAKE UP FOLKS THANKS CO2.EARTH

I can see why he is dissing AVs and ridesharing/carsharing which is estimated to eliminate up to 90% of individually owned new car sales. His company as a tier 1 supplier has a lot to lose if sales volumes ultimately take that huge a hit.

This number seems way off. First of all, private car ownership is biggest in rural areas, where ride hailing will work worse; so the actual potential for replacing private cars is way smaller.

Also, while cars are parked more than 90% of the time on average, the number is way smaller during rush hours — and a ride hailing fleet needs to be dimensioned for the peak usage, not the average usage. And higher utilisation rates means cars need to be replaced more often.

Last but not least, if autonomy makes ride hailing cost-competitive with mass transit — as some people claim — that would cause a major modal shift, and thus extra demand.

All in all, I don’t see a big reduction in cars produced coming due to autonomy. It might even be the opposite…

(⌐■_■) Trollnonymous

Just keep your head in the sand there buddy and let the EV revolution bulldoze you, your company and investors over.

Less people is actually a good thing..

This guy is a fool or corrupt or both. And quite missinformed. Expect his firm to go under with this kind of vision leading it.

“..demonizing diesel..”
They are filthy.

Clean diesel is a myth. Even when the emission control systems are not being cheated with, the engines are engineered to make the particulate dust so small that the standardized measurement equipment is just not able to measure it correctly. And guess who had a hand in it when the standard was decided how to measure particulates properly, it was the car manufacturers. Recycling of batteries is already done. It is not that difficult, with the Li-ion tech on the road today (or cell phones). The main hurdle is to get enough batteries that need to be recycled to reach economy of scale. Then it goes like this: 1. Put the batteries in a shredder and turn them into coarse powder. 2. Separate the fractions by floatation. Light stuff (Separator (plastic) + graphite) makes for good fuel in a power plant or cement factory, and heavy stuff (steel casings, copper from anode) can be easily recyled in the corresponding facilities. 3: Left over ist the cathode material (maybe contaminated with some aluminum foil, as well as binder and a bit of carbon). 4. The cathode material goes into a nickel smelting facility, to regain nickel and cobalt. Lithium actually helps… Read more »
The problem is cost. It cost several thousand dollars to recycle an EV car battery. They need to scale it up a lot. I was at a seminar with focus on electronics recycling. There was about 2 hours set aside to different battery recycling systems, and they mentioned the high costs – that did not make it profitable (more expensive to recycle then the value of the materials extracted). They talked about the importance of massive scale, to make it profitable. They needed to have one or maximum two in the whole of Europe to break even, or maybe make a small profit. The cost of the facility would be very high, and they would probably require EU funding to build the faciliy. After some years when there will be a higher supply of EV batteries, the facility can make a profit, and materials can be recycled and purified and sold at a competitive price to battery manufacturers. Even a normal electronics recycling facility (with a very high seperation factor) is expensive, and many countries in Europe send semi processed electronic waste materials to Germany for final recycling. They have extracted steel, copper, aluminium and removed plastic, glass, fiberglass and… Read more »

You keep using your flip phone n crt tv riberias….advancement IS happening with or without you. Too many governments, groups and individuals are requiring it or demanding it. I for one will not lease or own any vehicle without a plug.

In other words, Gestamp is not getting any EV contracts.

“Until a certain critical mass is reached, the evolution of the electric car will not begin to accelerate,” If exponential growth isn’t acceleration, what is? Diesel sales are dropping fast and gas are no where near the growth rate of EVs.