Germany Expected to Fall Short of 2020 Target of 1 Million Plug-in Vehicles On the Road


While plug-in vehicles were definitely the stars of the 2013 Frankfurt Motor Show, Germans don’t seem all that willing to purchase electrics, even though they were the highlight of the nation’s only major auto show.

Can the BMW i3 Change the EV Sales Pace in Germany?

Can the BMW i3 Change the EV Sales Pace in Germany?

The statistics put Germany behind most of Europe in cumulative plug-in vehicle sales and the nation’s goal of having 1 million plug-in vehicles on its roads by 2020 seems unobtainable.

Thus far in 2013, Germans bought approximately 3,000 plug-in vehicles, which isn’t a disappointing figure, but is still well shy of what’s needed to get on pace for 1 million.

It’s now believed that, by 2020, Germany will have no more than 200,000 plug-in vehicles on its roads.

That’s still a healthy figure, but it’s nowhere near 1 million.

What Germany needs to do is throw in some plug-in vehicle purchase incentives and hope that the launch of several German-made plug-ins will spur sales.

With the Volkswagen e-Up! and e-Golf, as well as the BMW i3 and Mercedes-Benz B Class Electric Drive, German residents will soon have a lot of homegrown choices to pick from.

The question is, will these homegrowns make a difference, or will Germans continue to flock to diesel over plug-ins far into the future?

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2 Comments on "Germany Expected to Fall Short of 2020 Target of 1 Million Plug-in Vehicles On the Road"

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It is difficult to predict how many EVs there will be in 7-10 years considering it is not known exactly what EVs will be capable of or cost, it is not known what the sociopolitical environment will be, and it is not known what other fuel sources would be available and if they will be competitive.

Hell, it is difficult to predict EV sales for a year or even a month 🙂

Germany’s 2013 Jan-Aug sales were 1.97 million vehicles; approximately 3 million per year
Between now and 2020 at current registration rate ths means 21 million new registrations. (3*7)

To reach 1 million PEVs by 2020 Germany just needs a PEV average above 4.76% of sales. This doesn’t seem too far fetched given some auto manufactures stating 10% of their sales will be PEV by 2020. For reference Norway’s BEV for Sept are over 9%; (Tesla Model S being over 6% of new registrations). While Norway has a couple year head start, don’t count Germany out as they are just getting to the start gate. (check back in two years)