A Look At The Future Of The EV Market & Battery Technology

EV

NOV 28 2017 BY STEVEN LOVEDAY 27

EV

Chevrolet Bolt EV

It’s abundantly clear that the EV segment is destined to take over, but there are many factors that will impact exactly “when” and “how” this will play out.

Leave it to WardsAuto to dive headfirst into a lengthy, well-researched, and telling study that may give us all a better idea of the future of EVs, along with that of battery technology in general.

Wards explains that most industry analysts and insiders believe that by 2030 every new vehicle will likely have some type of battery technology in place. However, making assumptions about the different types of electrification — traditional hybrids, plug-in hybrids, 48V mild hybrids, and pure battery-electric vehicles — is a much harder task. Although anyone can make an educated guess, the variables are boundless.

EV

Chevrolet Bolt EV’s 60 kWh Battery (Cells by LG Chem)

Just looking at the tip of the iceberg, obvious considerations are government incentives and policy, as well as the rate of technology growth. Technology growth in the EV segment leads almost directly and indefinitely to reduced costs and longer range. To say that these two are just a few on a long list of factors would be a blatant understatement. Consider charging infrastructure, gas prices, political parties, economics in general, advocacy (for or against), other technologies, and consumer education and awareness, among a multitude of other influences.

The myriad of factors is exactly why Wards released a new report by WardsAuto Intelligence, entitled “BEVs, Batteries and the Electrification Future.” And, they’re banking on the fact that interested parties will pony up a pretty penny to get their hands on such information.

WardsAuto’s primary takeaways are as follows:

-Although the EV market is growing, global sales are likely to remain a single-digit percentage of overall light-vehicle demand annually until after 2025.

-Despite the conservative near-term volume outlook, automakers are planning to launch no fewer than 85 new full-electric vehicles by 2025.

-Battery makers are working on new technology and chemistries that would cut costs and extend range, but lithium-ion will continue to dominate the market well into the next decade.

-Five suppliers, all based in Asia, will control 75% of the market for EV batteries worldwide in 2025.

The most notable and important aspects of Wards’ study deal with which automakers/battery makers have the best position to advance in the new electric/battery technology. The information gives Wards some credibility to adequately forecast how quickly the EV and battery market can/will grow, the industry’s willingness and ability to push forward and keep up, and whether or not investments and faith in the transition is warranted.

WardsAuto explains that the report’s content includes:

” … various demand forecasts from a wide range of sources and the aggressive plans by automakers around the world to fill their lineups over the next few years with full EVs.

 … verbatim Q&As with key industry executives and analysts, results of an exclusive WardsAuto Intelligence industry survey and unique, detailed data on markets, production, battery specifications and more.”

If you have an extra $2,250 to burn, you can order the entire report for yourself by following the link below.

Keep the conversation going in our Forum. Start a new thread about this article and make your point heard.

Source: WardsAuto

Categories: General

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27 Comments on "A Look At The Future Of The EV Market & Battery Technology"

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G2

Perhaps Insideevs could pony up the cash and let us all know…?

Omicron

Unfortunately I’m fairly sure that the terms of purchase explicitly prohibit other press publications from buying and redistributing the content of the report.

I mean, we’re living in an age where over 90% of “journalism” on the internet consists of re-reporting content found on other websites (and that figure might be too conservative still). Even this article here is largely copy&pasted directly from the WardsAuto site. If only one website was to purchase, process and publicize the material that WardsAuto is selling, then three days later it would be on absolutely every portal remotely related to automobile news.

You can bet that WardsAuto has legal measures prepared to stop that from happening.

Asak

I don’t think so t would be worth paying for anyway because it will be largely guesswork. There are really too many points of uncertainty right now to create a truly accurate projection.

Peter

I have two BEV cars, one PHEV and one ICE and after driving BEVs for some 4 years now I am clear that BEV is the only way to go.

ICE salespeople and service costs together with costs for gas is just stupid.

Peter

I have two BEV cars, one PHEV and one ICE and after driving BEVs for some 4 years now I am clear that BEV is the only way to go.

ICE salespeople and service costs together with costs for gas is just stupid.

Scott

Single digit share of new sales until after 2025 seems incredibly conservative.

Dan

9% global share in 2025 would be close to 75% compound growth rate year over year from current levels. That’s a lot faster than the EV market is growing currently.

Tom

You are going to get really frustrated using math on this forum. Feelings…use more feelings.

MaartenV-nl

S-curves are funny things. Hard to compute because so much is unknown. But a rule of thumb is that it takes as long to get from 0 to 1% get from 1% to the top.

Put the 0 at the launch of the Tesla roadster, and we have just crossed to 1% globally.
Where will we be by that timespan in the future, 2025?

Dan

The S curve of the Sigmoid curve is still an exponential function no different from a compounded rate. In fact, a pure 75% growth rate (1.75)^x will very rapidly beat out a sigmoid curve which usually has an exponent in both the numerator and denominator (e^x)/(1+e^x)

Scott

Total world market was 88 million in 2016. insideevs estimate of worldwide sales for first 10 months of 2017 is almost 800k. (PHEV + BEV). So we can safely say at least 1 million ev sales in 2017. 1/88 is 1.1% world market share. So it will take about 35% annual growth to bring it to about 10% in 8 years (2025). Assuming modest growth in overall market size.

Dan

Oh, you’re right! I wasn’t thinking of PHEV + BEV. which does come out to 35% compounded. I was looking at pure BEV numbers and had to come up with the much larger 75% growth number. Compounded 35% growth rate seems a lot more realistic.

Asak

I think that growth rate is way too low, honestly. EVs are growing at that rate when they currently aren’t even cost competitive. As that changes the speed of adoption should increase.

Assaf
<10% in 2025 is rather bearish at this point in time. We're crossing 1% this year by a comfortable margin. It'll be close to 1.5% after all is said and done. And we've gotten there with the majority of the world's large automakers (outside of China, at least) not committed at all, or testing the waters with limited offerings. 7 years ago, in 2010, we were essentially at zero. Certainly well below 0.01%. Now we have – the huge push in China; – All German automakers on board; – Tesla Model 3 to be followed by Model Y, surely before 2025; – GM designating the tech-and-consumer-satisfaction successful Bolt as a platform car to extend into multiple higher-volume US segments within 1-5 years; – Nissan eventually doing something similar with the Leaf, whose own volumes are set to drastically increase from 2018 onwards; – At least 3 of the remaining 4 of the US/Japan "Big Six" finding their EV legs already in 2017, and set to massively increase volumes from 2018 onwards (Prius Prime, Pacifica plug-in, Clarity PHEV) – Volvo producing only hybrids and plug-ins from now; – Hyundai coming out of the gate with a winner in the Ioniq line,… Read more »
Gasbag

@assaf
Spot on.

ffbj

Right.

James P Heartney

“-Five suppliers, all based in Asia, will control 75% of the market for EV batteries worldwide in 2025.”

So what’s the Tesla gigafactory? Chopped liver?

Brian

Tesla’s gigafactory builds Panasonic batteries. Panasonic is based in Asia.

James P Heartney

So Tesla’s batteries are “controlled in Asia.” Got it.

Brian

No, I’m pretty sure you don’t get it.

“Five suppliers, all based in Asia, will control 75% of the market for EV batteries worldwide in 2025”

Panasonic is a battery supplier. They are based in Asia, and partnered with Tesla to build cells in Nevada. The supply of any cells that are made in the Gigafactory are in effect “controlled” by Panasonic.

Where that “control” takes place (North America, Asia, Europe, etc) does not matter. What matters (in order to make the quote above correct) is that the controlling company is BASED in Asia.

So I’m really not sure whether you simply don’t understand the difference or are trying (and succeeding!) to be argumentative.

Gasbag

Main

bukweet

Check out Samsung’s recent advancement:

“Graphene balls for lithium rechargeable batteries with fast charging and high volumetric energy densities.”

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-017-01823-7

Sounds like this one could be for real.

Aaron

As with all graphene based advancements, the issue is in the manufacturability of the graphenes, and the ability to apply it once manufactured.

Unfortunately, it doesn’t appear they’ve been able to overcome the manufacturing hurdles required to make the batteries cost competitive.

Dan Aris

Manufacturing capacity does not equal sales?

Peter

I have two BEV cars, one PHEV and one ICE and after driving BEVs for some 4 years now I am clear that BEV is the only way to go.

ICE salespeople and service costs together with oil is just stupid.

Jim stack

If the USA just stopped Fracking prices for oul/ gas would jump and ev sakes,would go up 10x.
If the USA just stopped subsidies to big oil prices would jump and,EV sakes would skyrocket.
So we’ll see what the future brings. Electric vehicles sakes are,already the fastest growing car,segment. Soon Semi trucks and buses will also keep growing electric.

Stacystone

I am a regular follower of your blog. And the points you have mentioned over here are very essential in my point of view.