Frost & Sullivan Prediction: Electric Powertrain Market Share To Grow To 4.2% In China By 2020

APR 8 2015 BY MIKE ANTHONY 4

Frost & Sullivan.

Frost & Sullivan.

Frost & Sullivan predicts that the market share for electric powertrains in automobiles will grow to 4.2% in China by the year 2020.

To facilitate the growth of plug-in vehicles, “the Government has provided cash rebates and imposed buying and driving restrictions for target models, including battery, plug-in hybrid and fuel cell EVs. Vehicle original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) across the country are adapting to these new developments and restructuring their powertrain mix to prepare for the future market scenario.

Frost & Sullivan.

Frost & Sullivan.

Ming Lih Chan, Frost & Sullivan Automotive & Transportation Research Associate, stated:

“Besides the New Energy Vehicle Development Program, the Chinese Government has launched the National Program for Medium-to-Long-Term Scientific and Technological Development and 863 Program to transform the Chinese automotive manufacturing industry.”

“These initiatives will open up revenue opportunities for existing and new entrants in the Chinese powertrain market.”

It is reported that “the unfavorable image of diesel engines among Chinese consumers is hampering the development of the diesel powertrain segment.” Also, that the “lack of awareness and shortages of key EV components have been the main factors restraining the EV powertrain segment.

However, Chan adds:

“Not withstanding these challenges, the Chinese powertrain market will remain buoyant, with increased customer purchasing power and self-esteem needs triggering vehicle sales.”

“Companies that can complete the EV components supply chain will be the most-valued in the Chinese automotive industry.”

F&S further predicts that there will be over 350,000 inductive charging units sold by 2020 – Click here for more info on that.

Press Release Below:

“Shanghai,China–Mar 17 2015 – With the Chinese Government’s push and pull strategy of new energy vehicle development, gasoline powertrains’ unit production market share is expected to slightly reduce to 94.9 percent, while the electric vehicle (EV) powertrain segment’s share will expand to 4.2 percent by 2020. To accelerate the growth of the new energy vehicle market, the Government has provided cash rebates and imposed buying and driving restrictions for target models, including battery, plug-in hybrid and fuel cell EVs. Vehicle original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) across the country are adapting to these new developments and restructuring their powertrain mix to prepare for the future market scenario.

New analysis from Frost & Sullivan, Strategic Analysis of the Chinese Powertrain Market(http://www.frost.com/p830), finds that the passenger vehicle (PV) market is concentrating on gasoline, diesel and electric powertrains.

For complimentary access to more information on this research, please visit: http://corpcom.frost.com/forms/APAC_PR_JZheng_P830-18_11Mar15.

“Besides the New Energy Vehicle Development Program, the Chinese Government has launched the National Program for Medium-to-Long-Term Scientific and Technological Development and 863 Program to transform the Chinese automotive manufacturing industry,” said Frost & Sullivan Automotive & Transportation Research Associate Ming Lih Chan. “These initiatives will open up revenue opportunities for existing and new entrants in the Chinese powertrain market.”

However, with the improvement of the public transportation system, the public transport commuting ratio is expected to increase, adversely impacting the PV powertrain market in China. Along with this, the saturation of the PV market in tier I and II cities is denting the prospects of powertrain OEMs in the country.

Further, the unfavourable image of diesel engines among Chinese consumers is hampering the development of the diesel powertrain segment. On the other hand, the lack of awareness and shortages of key EV components have been the main factors restraining the EV powertrain segment.

“Notwithstanding these challenges, the Chinese powertrain market will remain buoyant, with increased customer purchasing power and self-esteem needs triggering vehicle sales,” noted Chan. “Companies that can complete the EV components supply chain will be the most-valued in the Chinese automotive industry.”

Strategic Analysis of the Chinese Powertrain Market is part of the Automotive & Transportation (http://www.automotive.frost.com) Growth Partnership Service program. Frost & Sullivan’s related studies include: Toyota Motor Global Product Portfolio, Financial Assessment of Global Automotive OEM Industry, Malaysian National Automotive Policy 2014, and Japanese Powertrain Market. All studies included in subscriptions provide detailed market opportunities and industry trends evaluated following extensive interviews with market participants.”

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4 Comments on "Frost & Sullivan Prediction: Electric Powertrain Market Share To Grow To 4.2% In China By 2020"

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I think it will grow faster than that. Between EVs getting cheaper, substantial incentive programs, and the difficulties with getting a registration for a gasoline car, the number of EVs sold in China should start to rise.

Has any “professional” forecasting company, in giving a precise prediction regarding future EV sales, ever been right? Even once? If so, I haven’t seen it. Might as well use a dartboard to predict the future; generating a prediction will be much faster, much cheaper, and just as accurate.

“It’s tough to make predictions, especially about the future.” -― Yogi Berra

Well, people need to do planning for the future so we need forecasts. And if you are willing to pay someone for a forecast then someone will provided one. Yeah, they are likely winging it much of the time and they won’t likely be correct. But the forecast provides some kind of guidance for the people that plan on what will be made.

More like 10% per year on current sales so that’s more like a 40-50% increase by 2020