Former Toyota Exec – Future Of Electric Cars Is Dim

OCT 30 2014 BY ERIC LOVEDAY 80

2013 RAV4 EV

2013 RAV4 EV

Tesla's Influence Can Clearly Be Seen In The Toyota RAV4 EV

Tesla’s Influence Can Clearly Be Seen In The Toyota RAV4 EV

It’s time for Toyota (and now ex-Toyota execs) to ease up on electric vehicles in our opinion.

Newsflash Toyota: RAV4 EV, Toyota i-Road, Toyota COMS, Scion iQ EV are all pure electric vehicles.

Environment 360 reports:

“Former Toyota executive Bill Reinert has long been dubious about the potential of electric cars. In an interview with Yale Environment 360, he talks about the promise of other technologies and about why he still sees hybrids as the best alternative to gasoline-powered vehicles.”

Q Yale Environment 360: You’ve long been a skeptic about electric cars. Are you still, and if so, why?

ABill Reinert: “Essentially my position on electric cars hasn’t changed. There’s nothing promising beyond the lithium battery on the battery horizon. And the lithium battery has tremendous shortcomings for cars – for example, it doesn’t maintain a full charge in hot weather, which creates a battery degradation cycle. Even the Tesla’s Model S, with its biggest battery, when driven like a normal car can’t always deliver 200 miles of range, and the [company’s charging stations] are currently 200 miles away from each other. To give a Tesla much extra driving range, the battery weight required would greatly decrease the distance it could travel per kilowatt and also greatly increase its cost.”

Reinert goes on to say that hybrids only need a few gallons of gas to go hundreds of miles and concludes “…while I don’t expect the battery car to get dramatically better, the internal combustion engine is getting phenomenally better…”

Reinert closes with this statement:

“Given that the bar gets raised all the time, it’s hard to see where the case for an electric car really comes in. Is it for carbon reduction? No, you’d have to decarbonize the whole grid to make that case, and that’s not likely to happen. I don’t know the case for the electric car. There’s going to continue to be a market for them, but it’s going to be a very small market.”

We think Reinert misses the fact that electric cars have the potential to simply be all-around better.  There doesn’t need to be a “case for the electric car” when there’s a vehicle like the Tesla Model S P85D.   It is hard to ignore the rapid progression and improvements happening in the plug-in segment, especially considering it didn’t even exist 4 years ago, but Mr. Reinert still seems to be able to.

Source: Environment 360

Categories: Toyota

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80 Comments on "Former Toyota Exec – Future Of Electric Cars Is Dim"

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“decarbonize the whole grid to make that case, and that’s not likely to happen”.

Decarbonization of the grid is very likely to happen very soon and is already happenning. Look eg at what the EU is doing how much progres there has been in the last several years on decarbonisation.

If this is really what Toyota believes, they are totally disconected from reality. Time to sell your Toyota shares!

But, I think there is a totally different reason: massive investment into hybrids! Toyota seems to have agreed internally that they have to delay the EV market by providing all kinds of misinformation in order to recoup their investment in hybrids first before EV’s take over.

Who want to have a hybrid when you can have a real EV?

that’s their problem methinks

I love the FUD from this idiot too: Drive the Model S like a regular car (what does this mean? he thinks you have to hypermile the Model S?) and you’ll barely get 200 miles out of it.

BS. Unless you’re at a test track driving full out, you’re not going to see a 85kWh Model S getting less than 200 miles.

And since when are the SuperChargers all >200 miles apart? Apparently he hasn’t seen the recent SuperCharger map.

What? We need to decarbonize the entire grid? How about we continue to make the small steps we’ve been taking to make the grid into using renewable sources. Or should we just give up, as you’re saying?

He’s grasping at straws to make EVs look bad. Sorry, dude. You’re just making yourself look bad.

The Model S actually will travel a bit below 200 miles in the *worst* case, but yeah he’s so wrong about almost everything else.

What’s really telling about his ignorance is that he doesn’t even mention plug-in hybrids.

At least he’s honest about fuel cells.

This guy is full of it. 200 miles on a charge–that would be a NON-RANGE charge. The soon to be released “D” will provide even greater range. According to my map the super charger stations are about 100 miles apart not 200.

i guess if you drive a Model S at 75 MPH on christmas eve you can crash the mileage, if you have the heaters on full blast and you do a Broder…

However his complaint seems to be addressable by a few more Superchargers. Tesla has been placing superchargers at 200 mile intervals, they can add some more

Yup, too bad the interviewer was uninformed and unprepared, and let the jerk get away with all the BS and lies he sprayed out.

The toyota guy is right about the range being easyly below 200miles (if you live in germany!). If you drive constant 120 km/h (or 75mi/h) the model S has a range of around 300-360km (187,5-225 miles) depending on weather condition.

If you drive already constant 130km/h the range drops below 320km (=200 miles; best case, incl. zero mile protection) and 130km/h is not fast, it the recomended speed at our Highways!

So i expect Tesla to deliver a 115kWh Battery and a 130kWh Battery when the 3 starts. That would be really gamechanger for germany sales.

I dont care if a supercharger is farther away than 200miles… Here they are around 200km = 125miles so i don’t see this point any more. At least when the SC-Grid is complete, but that wont take long.

And if you know the distance is high so you might have to reduce consuption and then you start driving fast, then you might be dumb.

14% of the electricity used in the U.S already comes from renewables. ( 7% Hydroelectric, 6% wind, 1% solar)

Next year it should grow to 16% with equal gains coming from wind & solar.

The rest of the U.S. Electric generation breakdown is:
37% Coal which is full carbonic
28% Natural Gas which is half carbonic
19% Nuclear ?
2% Trash incinerators & Pet Coke which is Double Carbonic.

Is that counting home solar too?

The cool thing about home solar is that the whole grid doesn’t have to be 100% “decarbonized” for your own car to be essentially “decarbonized”.

So national grid averages, or even regional grid statistics no longer apply. It just comes down to how much net power your solar panels generate.

Meanwhile, regular hybrids don’t “decarbonize” anything. They still get 100% of their energy/power from carbon fuels.

+1 a hundred time. 32% of EV owners have solar panels so say 1/3 of the EV fleet is already low carbon.
http://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/this-is-what-tesla-owners-are-doing-while-you-sleep

I don’t know how it could? I have solar panels and I do NOT report my generation to anybody except my laptop.

Depends on how smart your meter and your neighborhood’s transformers are. If the utility is connected to them and can read detailed logs, they’ll have a very good idea.

Anyone who mentions that EVs aren’t clean because the grid is dirty totally forgets that the grid is also used to make gasoline and diesel fuel (to deliver the gas to gas stations, etc.) If you took the same grid power used to make a gallon of gasoline and just skipped all those dirty steps in the middle and just put it directly into an EV you can actually drive the same amount if not a tad further than a regular car could drive on that gallon of gas – mainly because an electric motor is in the 80% efficiency range and a gas engine is more like 25%. Not to mention all the grid power used to search, drill, pump, ship, store, REFINE, pump, truck, store, and pump again at the gas station. A lot of those steps in the middle require hundreds of gallons of diesel fuel to do (like truck and ship) that ALSO required grid power to make/ship/store/pump. So anyone that makes that argument can be 100% debunked since gas cars use electricity AND gas where EVs just use electricity directly and cut out all those wasteful, dirty steps in the middle.

I think its dim on the inside of Reinerts head.

Your post made my day 😉
+1

Big +10

I think he has a point. The pure electric car market are still in its infancy but I also think Reinert underestimates the impact battery research will have. There are interesting things on the table and around 2020 where will probably be much better and cheaper batteries which will hugely increase the attractiveness of BEVs.
Right now though I think the best solution is plug-in hybrids like the Volt which have a decent EV range for the day-to-day commute and a range extender for the few longer trips.
Interestingly, the plug-in Prius is a real stinker in this category. The Prius was a great step forward when it was launched but today it’s nothing special.

Really? Which point that he made actually holds water?

“I drove fuel cell cars for a long time, for about 30,000 miles, and I liked them. But there was nothing in them that is so compelling that would make me want to spend the extra money.”

If you read the full article on Environment360 he has a few points that I agree with, CNG for trucks, how bad a choice ethanol is as a fuel additive… But he seems WAY off base, IMHO around BEV’s – He way OVERESTIMATES how much more efficient ICE’s can become – We’re nearing the Carnot cycle limit of the heat engine – While he’s right that chemical fuels are EXTREMELY energy dense, he way UNDERESTIMATES the future for batteries, which are at about 25% of their theoretical limits.. Granted LiON is the “short term” choice, and it has it limits, it “nearly” good enough – it’s still definitely improving (20% for Volt over 5 years) – and Telsa seems hell bent to lower costs – And they are likely to succeed at least partially with the GF, simply on economy of scale. There is ALOT of money in battery research, besides just for BEV’s, and to think none of that will pay off, is very shortsighted (LiAir, ZnAir, LiS, etc..) Finally, the comments around “decarbonizing” the grid, just completely disagree with the stats of what’s happening with power grids over the past 5 years. – Not sure how he can… Read more »

Thank you for bringing up the point about relative theoretical limits. It is very rarely stated in discussions like this, and very poorly understood by many. It is a human instinct to look at past experience and naturally expect to see that past performance extrapolated into the future. Housing prices? Went up steadily… until they didn’t. Petroleum sources? Keep producing steadily… until they run out. Combustion engines? Keep getting more efficient. The recent crop of engines with super/turbo charged intakes, superior injectors, and advanced timing technology have made a nice leap forward… until they can’t affordably improve any more. That is very nearly where we are today, where engines are cramming in more expensive and fussy difficult to design with high quality components.
Most agree that batteries are not making monumental gains at present. But they are steadily improving, with the theoretical density and efficiency limits many years away from being a concern.

As long as the management of a business thinks there is no future in something, there won’t be…for them.

Failing to change with the times makes it very tough to regain lost market share after people lose confidence in your abilities, though. The domestic automakers should be intimately familiar with that concept. Perhaps Toyota needs to experience it first hand as well.

Toyota does not hire visionaries. It wanted someone to walk and talk in step with their corporate culture. Brainwashed, x-Toyota executives aren’t much to lend credence to…

Wow. I disagree with pretty much every statement he made.

I’m starting to see a similarity in Toyota and Blackberry. Both had revolutionary products, but failed to see when a new revolution was coming and got left behind.

I once saw a market study by Kodak when the digital camera was starting to gain popularity.

At that time internal studies at Kodak showed something like a 5% market for digital camera’s and no growth beyond that point 🙂

well……..same story with Toyota I am afraid.

Considering that Kodak *invented* the digital camera, it is a comparison that has other interesting questions.

Good point (Nokia is another example), but the average lifetime of phones is ~2 years and of cars is 15 years.

It’ll take a long time for Toyota to feel the effects of their bad judgement, and there is plenty of time for them to change their mind. Even as late as 2020 their bet on hybrids could very quickly transform into a bet on PHEVs.

A transition to BEV wouldn’t be tough for Toyota either. They know electric motors, they know batteries and pack creation for cars, they know inverters. Most importantly they know how to put a car together, fast, efficiently, and reliably.
They can sign up and pay fees to use the supercharger network. They can buy cells from OEMs just like every other manufacturer.
Bottom line, the success of EVs won’t kill Toyota.

Yes! This is exactly the point I’ve been making for years: The foot draggers, most notably Honda and Toyota, can and, I predict, will leap into the EV market as soon as market forces push them to do so. And a huge component in said market forces is the price of batteries. (There’s also consumer psychology, the normal maturing of a new-ish technology, etc.)

Right now, the EV bashers are saying whatever they feel they must to maximize their company’s short-term profits, as they assume they can change course dramatically and quickly enough sometime in the future. That’s a pretty big gamble, but I think they can pull it off.

It won’t be quite that easy, because successful EVs are going to be using high power AC induction motors (because they’re so cheap when mass produced), and they’ll still be on PM motors. HEV batteries will be air cooled, BEV liquid cooled/heated.

For charging infrastructure, laggards will have to use somewhat slower public chargers or get ripped off paying to use someone else’s 100+ kW chargers.

PHEV should be good enough to be competitive and green for at least 20 years.

The problem with hybrids is they are a compromise no matter how you look at them. You can either get high fuel efficiency with sluggish performance, or high performance with modest improvements in efficiency. Take either on the highway for a long trip and the fuel savings over conventional engines are minimized or surpassed by diesel engines. None of Toyota’s current hybrid designs can address all of these concerns, and it would be foolish to try and design one when a 200+ mile fast-charging EV could do it all without a drop of gasoline.

I am going to enjoy watching Toyota slowly die in the next 10 years. talk about clueless. And the misinformation this idiot is spewing….wow.

Toyota has been in decline for at least 5 years now. The trend is already under way. Prius was a good idea and improvement 10 years ago, but today it is an antic. The PiP Prius is total nonsense, because all the extra parts and $3000 higher price for 11 miles of range, thus about $0.40 of daily savings on full charge. For 40 cents why to even batter with plugging and unplugging? Toyota invested heavily in Fool Cells and those billions unlikely ever come back. Eventually their investment will have to be written off of their books and stock price will fall. The Blackberry or Kodak comparison is perfect. 10 years from now Toyota could be an irrelevant company. They still will be around just will not be anywhere to the top.

Toyota can make a better PHEV in an instant. One CEO change with a more open mentality will implement that across the lineup in a couple of years for little cost.

It’s up to the consumer to prove plugins have demand, and plenty of offerings from other manufacturers will let us do so.

The blood at Toyota has already started to flow. Look at all the red ink on their latest U.S sales report. Which still looks good compared to their International sales reports. You give them 10 years. I give them 3.

Toyota will throw in the towel and start making EVs when they realize they are on the wrong side of history. The question is how far will they fall behind.

‘It’s time for Toyota (and now ex-Toyota execs) to ease up on electric vehicles in our opinion.’

Is the incessant sledging of Toyota’s fuel cell technology OK however?

It must be perfectly awful for you when they not only have a different opinion to your own but actually state it on occasion!

You are far too liberal, and should stop welcoming so much diversity in the one opinion acceptable to you.

That was unnecessary, this article has nothing to do with fuel cells and it was never mentioned. I think you should take a step back on this kind of interjection & consider you are doing more harm than good, to both electric cars and to fuel cells by talking like this.

“I drove fuel cell cars for a long time, for about 30,000 miles, and I liked them. But there was nothing in them that is so compelling that would make me want to spend the extra money.”

Guess who said that, Dave?

“…while I don’t expect the battery car to get dramatically better, the internal combustion engine is getting phenomenally better…”

The thing is that battery cars are better than ICE cars in all ways except range. So even with engines getting better, they still won’t ever catch up to motors in terms of maintenance requirements and reliability, noise and vibrations, or efficiency. It’s physically impossible. And assuming that current research batteries will some day be viable in cars is enough to fix the range problem.

Also:

the internal combustion engine is getting phenomenally better…

What a joke, what proofpoints does he have?
If we look at the last 20 years the ICE has improved maybe an incremental 1-3% every 5 years, whereas in batteries it is more like 10-20% EVERY year…..

what a joke!

Why does a gearbox exist? = to compensate shorcomings of an ICE!
Why does an exaust pipe exist? = dito
Why does a catalitic converter exist = dito
What about oil changes, firewalls, etc.etc.

All just patches to avoid solving the real problem: the core technology.

An ICE is just an outdated technology which needs 20 patches to work properly.

Exactly, and when ice are around 35% efficient and electric engines are around 80% there is huge room for improvement in ice efficiency, while electric engines are already there.
ICE is a dying technology. Similar to the difference between an incandescent bulb vs. an led.

I think one could easy argue the demand curve hugely in favor of ICE over electric for a lot of reasons…and for a very long time into the future.

That being said however, that demand is muted as worldwide governmental legislation is practically mandating its use less and less moving forward, while promoting/advancing electrification.

Short of global financial collapse to alter the course, it is a trend that seems to be permanently set in motion – which given my own feelings on the subject (and what we do here) seems pretty not too bad.

So true. ICE cars keep getting better and better, but then BEV’s have also kept up and indeed must keep up with them..

OF course, by buying a 2016 volt, you get improvements in both the ICE and the battery. Hopefully GM will start to make a profit on them, and then we can see many more vehicles use this platform once that happens.

Clueless! 200 miles between Tesla charging stations? What Toyota coolaid fountain did he drink that from. Same with an 85KWh pack not reaching 200 miles. There will be a day when that is true for packs that old and cycled enough but that isn’t true for any yet that didn’t qualify for a warranty replacement.
There isn’t one point he made that can be easily refuted. De-carbonize the whole grid to make a positive carbon contribution…pffft. Tell that to California. Increasing Tesla pack size not being practical? Check back in about 6 months.

sheesh…can’t, “There isn’t one point he made that can’t be easily refuted”

Again, not to defend this guy, as I pretty strongly disagree with his premise…

Reading the full interview, his comments around CNG for trucks, and the generally bad idea called ethanol – Those are actually two points that I agreed with…

The rest of his points.. Not so much.

“There’s nothing promising beyond the lithium battery on the battery horizon.”
Well that’s true. Lithium is theoretically as good as it gets, but we’ve only scratched the surface of what is possible with it. The ceiling for Li-Air is a theoretical 12kWh/kg. That’s 2x the energy capacity of a LEAF in weight of a gallon of milk.
Obviously we’ll never get anywhere close to the theoretical limits, but it illustrates how much room there is for improvement. Let’s say we only ever get to 1/10th the of that theoretical limit. At 4mi/kWh an EV could go 360 miles with a battery equal in weight to 20 gallons of gasoline.

While I really like the Toyota hybrids, I think Yuba is right, they don’t want to sell a product that competes with their successful Prius line. Owning one of each I can absolutely say without a doubt if my Leaf had enough range (maybe 200m?) I would never drive the Prius again, the EV is a far superior car in every other respect.

As a Leaf leasee with the lease about to expire, should I turn it in for now or should I purchase option it.? I have rooftop solar. It serves my commute needs..but I find I need a second ICE vehicle because of the short range. Am I to expect battery range extenders in the future? Can battery packs ever be added that add to my current model range. I will upgrade to a 2015 soon. Thanks , I am not very knowledgeable..but want to do what is right by the environment.

Hi Karen – What vehicle serves your ICE needs, as That is the question that breaks all one-size-fits-all statements here.

Currently, the only vehicle to break out of the sub 100mi All Electric Range (AER) is the Kia Soul, available now. It -can- get better than 100 mi AER. There are no other non-Tesla high AER vehicles available.

But if you can live with the Size of the Volt, it -might- be a better fit for covering your AER -and- your distance requirements. IF you can wait for the coming model, it is -supposed- to deliver 40mpg in Pure Gasoline range and go over 40 mi in Pure plug-in Electric. (and it is Very safe in crashes, luxurious, etc.)

If your ICE-requirement is size based, you have No alternatives, and might be better off to keep your large ICE vehicle and your Leaf. The only large vehicle are upcoming/not currently available ICE’s with ~20mi of Electric range added on (PHEV).

There is no way to add to your current Leaf’s AER, and the new Leaf is 5-10 mi better AER than you current model (guessing 2012).

Reinert, old chap, internal combustion engines barely scratch 20% efficiency at best. PLEASE explain how “the internal combustion engine is getting phenomenally better”?

A century of major research and development has moved that needle from 15% to 22%… just imagine what the next century will bring 🙂

(shaking my fist in the air)

Max, you young whipper snapper, current Toyota IC engines are up to 38.5% efficient, and the IC engine in the upcoming next-gen Prius will have over 40% thermal efficiency. 😉

http://www.dailytech.com/FourthGeneration+Prius+New+Engine+New+Design+More+Fuel+Efficient/article34229.htm

I think there’s a gas leak at Toyota HQ that’s made the,m all go crazy.

That he no longer has a dog in the race, makes him look pretty stupid. It also goes a long way to showing people actually believe this stuff, and don’t just put a dress on what makes money.

Hybrids can’t get around 20lbs of tail-pipe CO2 per gallon. Even at 50 mpgs, that’s .4 lb/mile. 40% coal, 30% natural gas watts, in the U.S. do it in about ~.32 lb/mile.

I’m doing his argument the huge favor of including the coal loving heartland into the above electric mix, and he’s still dead wrong. Go to the coasts, where coal is fighting to hold onto 10-25%, or look into the future, and he’s crushed.

Fact … Toyota’s electric car sales dimming, but other manufactures seeing a brighter future. 2011 … 2012 … 2013 … 2014 Prius Plug-In sales (global) N/A … 27,279 … 21,381, … 16,650 (est) Prius Plug-In (US) N/A … 12,750 … 12,088 … 15,000 (est) Volt (US) 7,671 … 23,641 … 23,094 …21,000 (est) RAV4 EV (US) n/A … 192 … 1,096 … 1,000 (est) … 0 (2015+ as last sold Nov/Dec 2014) LEAF (US) 9,674 … 9,819 … 22,610 … 29,000 (est) Model S (US) N/A … 2,650 … 17,650 … 21,000 (est) Three interesting trends not noted in article: 1) year over year (YoY) global sales decreasing as US sales have been flat 2) US sales make up larger & larger percentage of global sales each year 3) BEV numbers increasing YoY (LEAF & Model S) vs. flat PHEV sales YoY (PiP & Volt) note: US LEAF sales will total over 66,000 when reported on Nov 3, vs. 64,000 Global Prius Plug-In sales. Model S sales have already passed 50,000 global (sep) but exact number will not be released until Q3 earnings report. Coming are BMW i3, i8 … Ford __ … Hyundai __ … Kia Soul EV, …… Read more »

Brian,

Don’t kid yourself. Many of the world’s major car company’s will go to hydrogen in the very near future:

Manufacturers subject to California Air Resources Board (CARB) Zero Emission Vehicle (ZEV) mandates and vehicle used to meet that mandate, 2015 – 2017 model years:

BMW – i3, probably not hydrogen

Fiat/Chrysler – 500e, who knows?

Ford – Focus EV, likely hydrogen by 2018

General Motors – Spark EV, potential “200 mile Sonic EV” or hydrogen by 2018?

Honda – absolutley hydrogen only

Hyundai – absolutley hydrogen only

Kia – Soul EV

Mazda – Demio EV

Daimler/Mercedes – B-Class ED, Smart ED, hydrogen by 2017-2018

Nissan – LEAF, eNV-2000

Toyota – absolutley hydrogen only

Volkswagen – eGolf, hydrogen by 2018

Auto manufacturers that are NOT subject to CARB-ZEV due to their small sales in California. These additional manufacturers are required to comply with the ZEV requirements, but would be allowed to meet their obligation with Plug-In Hybrids (PHEV).

Since none are mandated by ZEV, none are even considering hydrogen. Isn’t that a bit odd?

Tesla
Mitsubishi
Fuji Heavy Industry (Subaru)
Jaguar Land Rover
Volvo

Personally, I think the time is coming, when the environmental side (that the fossil fuel co’s very much need) will capitulate. They will see Peter being robbed to pay Paul, and back off on hydrogen’s costs. True ZEV’geist isn’t really found outside of CA, anyway.

Correct a limited number of FCV sales in California are only possible because the state of California kicked in $200 million to build a hand full of refueling stations. I don’t see concretive states kicking in that kind of money. Most states don’t even support BEVs.

What i really don’t get is why Toyota is not jumping in BMW i3 type of ev if indeed they say that ev range is too short. With their new direct free piston generator they could make an electric Camry sized vehicle with a very compact Rex.

What an AO! Must be a Republican trying to keep the oil cartels in business along with ICE dealerships!

Hahahaha . . . keep trying to rationalize that fuel cell boondoggle.

Toyota Hybrid Vehicle Sales
Based on TMC data (Unit = 1,000 vehicles)

Global Japan U.S. Europe

1997 0.3 0.3
1998 17.6 17.6
1999 15.2 15.2
2000 19 12.5 5.7 0.7
2001 36.9 18.4 15.9 2.3
2002 41.3 19.9 20.3 0.8
2003 53.2 27.1 24.8 0.8
2004 134.6 68.7 55.9 8.1
2005 234.9 58.5 149.9 23.3
2006 312.5 72.4 197.6 36
2007 429.4 81.9 287.8 48.9
2008 429.7 104.4 254.9 57.8
2009 530.1 251.1 205.2 54.7
2010 690.1 392.2 195.8 70.1
2011 628.9 316.3 185.1 82.8
2012 1219 678 344.6 106.8
2013 1279.4 679.1 358.1 153
Total 6072.9 2814.2 2302.4 646.6

*Global figures contain sales from markets other than Japan, North America and Europe

==========================================
From the chart above you can see that Toyota global hybrid sales over 1,200,000 in both 2012 and 2013 after jumping up from just 628,000 in 2011.

Toyota is finally making some significant money on their hybrids.

So, for right now Toyota is content to suck up the profits from the sales of millions of hybrids. Battery electric and PHEV are probably viewed as unwelcome competition to Toyota’s world wide hybrid dominance.

Remember the anti-EV ad from Lexus ?

—————————————–

http://corporatenews.pressroom.toyota.com/releases/worldwide+toyota+hybrid+sales+top+6+million.htm

When started sales to surge…? 2010.

When started new Prius model…?
April 2009: Lexus RX 450h launched
May 2009: Completely redesigned third-generation Prius launched.

So the new generation of prius and lexus in 2009 was very good.

The Toyota hybrid sales chart didn’t copy correctly. If interested, just go to this link:

http://corporatenews.pressroom.toyota.com/releases/worldwide+toyota+hybrid+sales+top+6+million.htm

This quote from the full interview is the best explanation I’ve heard yet about why Toyota is pushing hydrogen fuel cells at the moment:

“The auto companies need to make zero-emission vehicles for Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) and other regulations, such as the California Air Resources Board’s zero emissions mandate, so they need to decide which pathway, EVs or FCVs, will lose the least amount of money.”

But this logic is flawed as Tesla and Nissan sell electric cars for more than it costs to build them:
http://ycharts.com/companies/TSLA/gross_profit_margin
http://insideevs.com/nissan-ceo-ghosn-leaf-sales-success-profits/

“…while I don’t expect the battery car to get dramatically better, the internal combustion engine is getting phenomenally better…”
———
LOL, so after 100+ years of working on the ICE, *NOW* is the time it will get phenomenally better. Ha!

Realistically, modern electric cars have only been in the works for approximately 7 years, and have already made significant improvements.

If we had a standard ev battery pack we could have battery exchange or batswap. This eliminates range from the equation and makes for lighter faster more efficient Evs. ..we do have AA CELLS AND WE USED TO HAVE 35MM FILM so standardization is possible…or am I dreaming that automakers can get their act together..

An electric car battery is much more complicated than a AA cell. I think trying to standardize the batteries now would be a terrible idea, because it would make it difficult to make any advances. In another 15-25 years, battery technology should be advanced enough that people will accept the limits on new developments that standardization will cause.

What should be standardized is the charging systems. Having 3+ DC fast charging standards is not a good idea.

There might be a reason he’s an “ex” Toyota executive.

I have 51,000 miles on my P85 and just completed a 267 mile run with 241 mile charge and had 14 miles remaining when I got home. My normal rule is have a charging plan for 175 mile trip in cold weather. I would never buy a hybrid as long as an electric car like the Tesla exists. The Supercharger network is awesome and going to be even better by the end of 2015. This exec is just like the rest.

There is only one company scaling up to do massive battery manufacturing for motive and stationary power. I forsee many more gigafactories build around the world in the next 10 years. This is going to go viral.

How to calculate the Countdown Clock to when Toyota will suddenly proclaim that EV’s are the best things in the world, and that everybody should rush to buy them:

1) Calculate when the falling market share for traditional hybrids finally crosses with the rising market share for EV’s/PHEV’s. Toyota has sold millions of regular hybrids, and they aren’t giving up on those sales until the bitter end. A graph of sales numbers could predict when this may happen.

2) Calculate how long California CARB will keep allowing outrageously high ZEV credits for Fuel Cell vehicles. I believe a number of credits will sunset in future years.

Once these events happen, Toyota will come rushing into the market claiming to have the newest, greatest in plug in vehicles that suddenly makes them super-awesome, and you should buy 2 or 3 of them.

more utopia:

awaiting the garage band development of H2 creation from solar input. Once Elmer and I can cobble together this technology and produce our own H2 fuel, FCEV looks pretty damned good, even if it IS a butt-fugly car!

(yeah, I know, inefficient, WhatEver! LOL, see ya in ’20)

/utopia

The new VOlt should do well since it has a marginally better battery, and a marginally better engine.

Efficiency comparisons here are misleading… An ICE is a prime mover, and the efficiency of the ICE in my Volt is higher than the efficiency of the SOlar Panels on my Roof. But I’m not worried about it.