September EV Sales In US Hit 2017 High, And Its Only Up From Here!

2 weeks ago by Jay Cole 84

More Tesla Model S sedans found their way onto US consumers’ driveways than in any month prior in 2017 (seen here as taxis in Dubai)

In August, plug-in vehicle sales in the US crested 16,000 deliveries, and we noted at the time – “you ain’t seen nothing yet” looking ahead to the remainder of 2017.

…turns out, we weren’t liars.

September’s results got off to a strong start, and continued for the whole month, as more plug-in vehicles were sold over the 30 days than any month prior in 2017.  In fact, EV sales passed the 20,000 mark for just the 2nd time in US history.

The three vehicles that have managed to sell more than 2,500 copies in a month in 2017?  Tesla Model S, Model X … and the Chevy Bolt EV

In total, an estimated 21,325 plug-ins were delivered, a gain of 24% from the ~17,224 moved a year ago. (full sales chart of each model below)

The result was also the 2nd best all-time for EV sales in the US, surpassed only by last December when 24,785 were sold.

For the year, ~142,514 deliveries have been made, well ahead of this point from last year (106,585).  By the latter half of this month, plug-in sales will have eclipsed the full 2016 total (158,614).

Will the US hit the 200,000 mark in 2017?  It seems almost inevitable.

The needle this month was once again moved by the Model S, as Tesla did its “end of the quarter thing” by focusing almost exclusively on its domestic customers.

The almost 5,000 estimated Model S deliveries and more than 3,000 Model X sales easily made Tesla the number one e-automaker for September, but the wider focus was still on the production miss for the Model 3, as the company managed to only build 260 Model 3 sedans in Q3 (about 1,400 light of estimates), delivering 220.

Other than the Model 3, most plug-in models had exceptional results in September, including the Chevrolet Bolt EV, which took home the “non-Tesla” best selling crown, posting more than 2,600 sales – a new all-time high (and the highest single monthly result in 2017 for any plug-in not made by Tesla).

On the plug-in hybrid side of things, it seems that a wider field of competitors…and the arrival of the Toyota Prius Prime, as adversely impacted some of the stalwarts in the segment, as both the Chevrolet Volt and the Ford Fusion Energi have significantly diverged (lower) than last year’s results over the past several months.

A new serious player in the plug-in hybrid segment presented itself in September – the BMW 530e (InsideEVs/Tom Moloughney)

In the “oh, you sold how many?” category this month, and really the surprise hit of 2017, is the BMW 530e (check out of review of the car here). 

The plug-in hybrid 5-series has seen sales improve each month since it debuted in the Spring, and is now also becoming a force in the PHEV segment – moving more than 500 copies in September.  BMW now looks like it will displace Ford as the 3rd best seller of plug-in hybrids in 2018.

As for disappointments, there was a few of those too, but really the poor decisions by the VW Group this year has continued to push it to the head of the class.

After holding back the “new” longer range 2017 Volkswagen e-Golf to better sell out of old 2016 inventory (yes, the 2017s are just arriving now), the company still manage to botch the inventory situation by waiting too long – resulting in a multi-year low for the model in sales this month.  The same can be said for the Audi A3 e-tron (all-time low with under 100 sales), and the plug-in Porsche Panamera?  Out of stock since last November; the new Panamera 4 E-Hybrid was originally slated for a “mid 2017” launch (but should be available next month).

Also of note for September EV sales:

  • The Tesla Model S sedan’s result, and the Model 3’s apparently flounder, put it firmly in line to win the 2017 best-selling EV award.  The Tesla now has a ~4,000+ unit advantage over the Chevrolet Volt
  • As for the Volt, despite still retaining 2nd place on the best selling plug-in list, the sales trend is definitely down, and now three vehicles (Tesla Model X, Toyota Prius Prime Chevy Bolt EV) are within striking distance of the Volt – which could find itself in 5th spot by this time next month.
  • smart, despite losing  2/3rds of its US dealers for the 2017 model year as the petrol versions fade out, has found some legs for new 2017 smart Electric Drive, selling more than 100 copies of the new version in its first full month on the market

2017 Monthly Sales Chart For The Major Plug-In Automakers – *Estimated Tesla Sales Numbers – Reconciled on Quarterly Totals, ** FCA/Hyundai-Kia Do Not Report Sales Directly, Estimate Based on State/Rebate Data (Thanks to HybridCars for assist on Kia data), Honda Clarity estimated for Aug/Sept

Other Statistical Points of Interest from September 2017

The new smart electric drive showed decent results in its first full month on the US market in September

Top Manufacturers Of Plug-In Vehicles:

  1. Tesla* – 8,095
  2. General Motors – 4,112
  3. Toyota – 1,899
  4. BMW Group – 1,861
  5. Ford – 1,577
  6. Nissan – 1,055

Pure Electric Car Market Share vs PHEV In September*

  1. BEV – 13,356– 62.6%
  2. PHEV – 7,969 -37.4%

(*) estimated

New Year Highs Set In September By Model (previous 2017 high in brackets)

  • Tesla Model S*4,860 (3,450)
  • Tesla Model X*3,120 (2,750)
  • Chevrolet Bolt EV – 2,632 (2,107)
  • BMW 530e – 511 (345)
  • Kia Optima PHEV – 228 (182)
  • smart Electric Drive – 123 (94)
  • Tesla Model 3* – 115 (75)
  • Volvo SC60 PHEV – 97 (65)
  • Mercedes B 250e – 87 (81)
  • Honda Clarity Electric – 52 (34)
  • Cadillac CT6 Plug-In Hybrid – 27 (23)

The full monthly recap by individual plug-in (all-time) can be found on our Monthly Scorecard here.

*On year of monthly sales improvements: We know someone is going to look at the chart and say, “hey, only ~11,467 sales were made in May of 2016, when 11,540 were logged in 2015!  What gives InsideEVs?”  What gives is – through an odd scheduling quirk, only 24 selling days were reported in May 2016 (versus 26 in 2015)

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84 responses to "September EV Sales In US Hit 2017 High, And Its Only Up From Here!"

  1. Spoonman. says:

    I guess the lesson from BMW is that the Lincoln MKZ Energi can’t come fast enough for FoMoCo.

    1. Anon says:

      I told a Lincoln dealer exactly that about a month ago. Told her to call me back whenever they decide to sell anything with a plug.

      1. mx says:

        Looks like anyone below the Leaf isn’t trying.
        Could be a Management Decision.
        Trump may have Scared BWM and Germany.
        Too bad.
        Capitalism requires Courage.

        1. MTN Ranger says:

          The “all of the rest category” have been playing in the minor “compliance” leagues since 2012. This has nothing to do with orange in the WH.

  2. WadeTyhon says:

    Very nice numbers for the Bolt and S.

    Tesla and GM combine for over 50% of US sales…C’mon Toyota, Ford, BMW, Nissan… pick up the pace! 🙂

    Whooohoo CT6 continues to break records! 27! It is on a 5 month roll of increased sales! lol

  3. mx says:

    A Big Thanks to Everyone who drives these things in Cities. Seems like the air is Fresher!

  4. Falkirk says:

    So Tesla is competing with moths now?

    “More Tesla Model S sedans found their way onto US consumers’ driveways than in any moth prior in 2017”

    😉

    1. Jay Cole says:

      It clearly says months…you must have copy & pasted that wrong, as I clearly have not just gone back now and edited this story to make you look foolish, (=

      /pretty funny though

      1. Djoni says:

        And here again you’re “Taking care of business, everyday” Jay.

    2. Alan says:

      Well if anyone is going to try and peg them back in Q4, they will need to get off to a flyer !

    3. William says:

      Jay would never steer us wrong, like a Month into a flame!

  5. Texas FFE says:

    The Ford Focus Electric didn’t even get an honorable mention again but it still outsold the Hyundai Ioniq, the Smart ED and the Tesla Model 3. It looks like some of the EVs we thought were going to be popular right now are having with trouble with sales.

    1. Peter says:

      The Ioniq is having problems with availability. One of the more interesting lease offers but zero availability.

      1. David S. says:

        Hyundai sells more copies of the Ioniq EV in Canada than it does in the U.S. Are they not interested in getting CARB ZEV credits?

      2. Pushmi-Pullyu says:

        Kia woefully underestimated the market for the Ioniq Electric. I understand they are moving to increase production substantially.

        1. Pushmi-Pullyu says:

          Correction: Make that the Ioniq Electric, a BEV. There are also HEV and PHEV versions of the Ioniq.

    2. Texas FFE says:

      Comparatively, the FFE hasn’t done so bad. In it’s six year run about 8,330 Focus Electrics have been sold in the US with the best month being March of this year where 407 units were sold. Bolt EV sales just recently passed FFE total sales.

      With all those reservations I know the Tesla Model 3 will outsell both the Bolt EV and the FFE but when? When will total sales of the Model 3 pass the FFE and the Bolt EV? There have been about 115,000 Nissan Leafs sold in the US since 2011, when will the Model 3 sales surpass these numbers?

      1. Will says:

        They will at the beginning of 2019.

      2. Josh Bryant says:

        Question 1) November 17

        Question 2) June/July 18

        1. Josh Bryant says:

          Oops, thought you meant monthly on Question 1. Total sales: January for FFE and March for Bolt (assuming it closes 17 strong).

  6. ffbj says:

    I’m thinking of buying an old Leaf for 6k, and putting the new pack in for another 6k plus about 800 for labor.

    1. Chris Raymond says:

      Which new pack? Because to my understanding the best pack you can put in an older Leaf is the 2015 Lizard 24kwh battery…. If that’s the case, you would be better off just picking up a 2015 Leaf.

    2. Paul Schlueter says:

      Only buy an old LEAF (2011 or 2012) if you can get one that already has a new battery or if you can find a car still under warranty and get a free battery under warranty. These are getting very hard to find these days. Otherwise, if you find one with 8 battery bars or less and out of warranty, don’t pay more than about $4,000.

    3. wavelet says:

      Do you have a link for an official upgrade program, including price (and you mean to the 30kWh, yes, not the 40kWh)?

  7. Rad says:

    Nissan may not put in the new 30 kwh or 40 kwh pack in an older Leaf. I read somewhere they were only replacing them with 24’s.
    Check with the dealer. If you can find an independent mechanistic to do it, go for it

    1. ffbj says:

      Good to know. Thanks.

      1. Chris Raymond says:

        I guess I should have read this comment before responding.

    2. tom moloughney says:

      That is correct. Currently they will only replace the 24 kWh pack with a new 24 kWh pack, you can’t upgrade to the larger pack.

      BMW has been experimenting with upgrading 22 kWh i3s that were coming off lease, with the new 33 kWh pack and reselling them.

    3. bro1999 says:

      I seriously doubt Nissan will offer 40 kWh packs for Gen 1 Leafs, as that would only deter sales of the new Leaf.

    4. Texas FFE says:

      You can put a 2017 FFE 33.5 kWh battery pack in the older FFEs, There has already been a few 23 kWh battery pack upgrades due battery failures. You can’t even buy a replacement 23 kWh pack anymore.

      But don’t count saving money by buying an old FFE and putting a new battery in it. A 33.5 kWh battery pack costs $20k right now. If you really want the 33.5 battery pack it would be less expensive just to buy a new 2017 FFE and get the tax credit.

  8. tom moloughney says:

    I wrote this in my BMW 530e extended test drive review:

    “Honestly, if BMW doesn’t sell every one of these the minute they hit the dealership then there’s a problem with their client advisers, because it’s really a no-brainer.”

    Looks like they are indeed selling every one they get! 😉

    1. vdiv says:

      Yes, but BMW mostly sells their cars as made to order due to the variety of options and preferences that the buyers have. They should sell every one the get bare a demo car. It is not like Chevy where they get an allotment and the dealership has to guess in advance what options will sell.

    2. Josh Bryant says:

      Good to hear it is a great product. When the specs came out I was intrigued.

      I would have considered a lease if it was out a couple years ago, but too close to getting my number called on Model 3 now.

      The i3 setup was a disaster for kids in car seats (suicide doors). Volt is really bad on rear seat headroom. Once my LEAF lease was up I was stuck with no viable options thanks to Outlander PHEV’s multiple head fakes. It ironically arrives once I have pretty much made my mind up for Model 3.

      I am going to drive the Bolt before I configure, but I really want RWD again. LEAF won’t get to Texas in time most likely.

      Do you have any plans for a new EV on the horizon?

  9. Four Electrics says:

    When will the Model 3 outsell the Bolt (sales to insiders excepted)? My guess is February.

    1. Tech01x says:

      On a monthly basis, November.

      By end of year, Tesla Model S/X/3 could be #1, 2, and 3.

      1. “By end of year, Tesla Model S/X/3 could be #1, 2, and 3.” – or – they could be #3, 2, & 1!
        It seems the Model X is creeping up in Sales, catching up quite fast to the Model S! Since I keep hearing so many people say SUV’s are more popular, I can see that happening at some point – maybe not so far away! Obviously – once Model 3 Get’s its Production Act together – it will ten take the lead at #1 in unit volume!

    2. Warren says:

      Once they get the Model 3 line up and running, every other car maker will be a footnote for a year or two at least. Tesla will have enough orders in the pipeline to sell every Model 3 they can produce for a year. That news alone, bouncing around the 24/7 news machine, will generate more orders.

    3. Mark.ca says:

      The difference between the 2 is demand. If GM increases production x3 maybe they will get to 4000 per month. On the other hand, Tesla will sell any TM3 they will produce so the only way for them not to pass the Bolt is to have constant production problems…very unlikely. Even an anti Tesla guy like ke yourself should see that.

    4. unlucky says:

      I’m going to go with December now. I would have said November before.

      1. Tom says:

        I’ll go in with you on December. Elon Musk’s explanation of the delay didn’t say they even had a time to getting it figured out. He just said ‘near-term’. If all the fixes are already in the works he could put a time on it. Especially since he normally exaggerates so much with ‘aspirational’ goals. This is why they launched in July only a few days before seeking a multi-billion dollar line of credit. He knew it was going to be a rough start and that this line would be much harder to get if there was a hiccup. So now with ample cash in hand he has time to work it out and get production up to speed without any kind of existential risk. So I’ll give it December before M3 is the top seller in the land. Then I think look out for 2018. Big year.

        1. Will says:

          The ramp up will happen when NDA expires in the meantime we don’t know

  10. Alexander says:

    The US numbers are disappointing compared to China, Europe and the world. The increase of 24% year on year is much less than we see in other countries. Hopefully, this is a result of people holding off for Model 3 and the trend will be reversed once Model 3 starts being produced in sufficient volumes.

    1. Warren says:

      The S and X have been the must have gadget for the 1% for several years. The Model 3 should do the same for the 10%. In five years, EVs for the rest will be offered by any car maker still standing.

      1. Warren says:

        Unless autonomous driving actually arrive. In which case most will take a pass on actually owning a car.

        1. Pushmi-Pullyu says:

          That scenario only works if you don’t really think it through. It’s just wishful thinking.

          Carpooling isn’t going to suddenly replace private car ownership just because we get robot chauffeurs.

          1. Warren says:

            A whole lot of people, with big money, seem to disagree.

            1. Pushmi-Pullyu says:

              Tens of millions of orange Kool-aid drinkers don’t believe in global warming or evolution, either.

              I prefer to look at things as they really are.

              1. Will says:

                Thanks Push. I don’t believe car sharing will take off anytime soon or the next 30 years. Americans love thier cars

              2. Mr. M says:

                Carsharing will not take off. But think of it like taxis that cost only 1/4 of today or are cheaper to own than a own car. Something like this will indeed Spur sales. Sure own car concepts wont die so soon, but maybe a family with 4 cars will later on only have 2 cars standing in their garage.

                1. Pushmi-Pullyu says:

                  I have no doubt that the push for car sharing will have some success. In the past I’ve made an analogy with people sharing bedrooms in their home thru Airbnb.

                  Well, it turns out that Airbnb now rents more room nights than the largest hotel chain. So yeah, there will be those who will use the ride sharing service that Tesla and other companies are touting.

                  But just as Airbnb hasn’t caused any hotel chain to go out of business, I don’t believe that all the ride-sharing services will put a significant dent in personal car ownership. The idea that most people who own cars will give them up, when they are driven by robots instead of people, seems very unrealistic to me.

                  Most people don’t carpool because it’s time-consuming and inconvenient. Having a robot drive the car instead of a person isn’t going to improve that situation much at all.

    2. Pushmi-Pullyu says:

      “The US numbers are disappointing compared to China, Europe and the world. The increase of 24% year on year is much less than we see in other countries.”

      Yes, overall this year’s sales numbers have been quite disappointing. Only 24% YOY growth is far less than we need, and is significantly less than we saw here in the U.S. last year.

      As Jay has pointed out more than once, it’s really the top few sellers (well, now we should say “top several”) that make or break the strength of monthly and annual sales. The “also ran” group, even though the list keeps getting longer, doesn’t have much impact. With Volt sales dropping, the Prius Prime selling significantly less than expected (in the U.S. market), and the Bolt EV not selling as well as we hoped, the overall total is a lot less than I would have predicted.

      Thank goodness Tesla is going gangbusters in selling the MS and MX! And here’s hoping they can significantly ramp up TM3 production Real Soon Now.

      1. Mystery says:

        Besides being a Musk maid cheerleader, you apparently are schizophrenic, because you basically acknowledged USA Peak model S & X finally in another post. Fact is Model S Q3 Down ~ 6% YoY, while Model X slightly up. And Non US sales Down from 12K in Q2 to 10K in Q3, but no one will ever know the Intl distribution or Non-delivery to Real end users because they refuse to report to enable their smokescreen misdirection. It’s all in Model 3 because Model S & X are permanently Flatlining at best

        1. Pushmi-Pullyu says:

          “…you basically acknowledged USA Peak model S & X finally in another post. Fact is Model S Q3 Down ~ 6% YoY, while Model X slightly up.”

          You appear to be confused; perhaps you have the gain turned up too high on your reality-distorting Tesla hater goggles?

          It certainly does appear to me that demand in the USA for the Model S is maxing out, or close to it, altho of course Tesla continues to expand its international markets.

          That doesn’t at all contradict the fact that Tesla’s total production is significantly up this year over last**, just it has been every year since 2012.

          **If anyone doubts it, just see the quarterly production figures here:
          https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tesla,_Inc.

          But then, you know perfectly well there’s not really a contradiction there. You are just grasping at straws in your ongoing inept, and frankly often laughable, desperate attempts to find anything about Tesla to complain about.

          But that’s okay, “Mystery”. (No mystery that you’re just another anti-Tesla troll repeating what other trolls say.) Anytime I get irritated with your B.S., I just think about all the money you’re losing on shorting Tesla stocks.

          😀 😀 😀

          1. Pushmi-Pullyu says:

            P.S. — And no, Mr. FUDster, I absolutely never stated or suggested that Model X demand is even close to maxing out.

          2. Mystery says:

            Again resorting to ranting, yes Model S is maxed out in US, and everywhere else, Because No one Will Wver Know because tesla does Not report Intl numbers. FACT is non-US Model S&X went Down from 12k to 10k from Q2 to Q3. There is No More growth for either a 5-yr old car (S) or flawed hubris often $100k+ (X). That’s reality – something you appear to be learning.
            It is all on the Model 3 to justify most of stock price going fwd. hopefully they will work out probs sooner but todays Electrek finds Musk quotes abt status.
            We will see when Model 3 in CA waiting list = 0. Then you can wave your yuuge pom poms or stuff them for posterity.

    3. Kdawg says:

      “The US numbers are disappointing compared to China, Europe and the world”
      ———–
      Isn’t the world market penetration around 1%, which is on par with the US? I thought China was around 1.5%

      I think Norway is the only country with significant market share.

      1. Mr. M says:

        Iceland 11%
        Norway 35% (still rising)
        Netherlands 3-5%
        France 2,x%
        Germany 1,4%
        England ??
        Ireland 4%

        1. Mr. M says:

          Unsure about ireland numbers

  11. Get Real says:

    I think the moral of the story is that compelling EVs like the Tesla S, X and Chevy Bolt are selling very well and Tesla as an OEM has basically double or more sales then any one of their competitors.

  12. Tom says:

    Anyone know more specifics as to when the Niro PHEV hits here? I know it’s sometime late 2017 but haven’t heard anything more specific. That’s the one I’m waiting for.

  13. Pushmi-Pullyu says:

    I find it really strange how Volt sales surged when the Bolt EV was introduced, but now they have fallen off markedly. What is up with that? Did Chevy offer a strong sales incentive for the Volt? Or did Chevy dealers “steer” would-be Bolt EV buyers to the Volt?

    1. WadeTyhon says:

      I think there is a combination of different factors.

      Bolt was getting lots of press in late 2016 and early 2017. Volt sales were strong especially in the early months since Bolt and Prius Prime were difficult to find in most of the country.

      Prius owners were some of the most common people to buy a Volt as their first plug-in. Now that the Prime is available (for cheaper) Toyota is retaining some customers they might have lost.

      This year, especially in the past few months, small car sales have plummeted. For comparison, the Bolt outsold the Sonic and Spark last month. Heck even at 1,400 the Volt outsold the Sonic. Bolt is the more popular body style at the moment.

      Also, possibly politics in a few situations. I know one person who bought a Volt instead of a Bolt because he had convinced himself that Trump was going to kill the EV tax credit and GM was going to kill the Bolt after the EPA destroyed CARB. I explained to him why none of these things were going to happen and to wait on a Bolt since he wanted one. But he was positive he was going to regret it if he waited.

      1. Pushmi-Pullyu says:

        Thank you very much for your detailed reply! 🙂

      2. unlucky says:

        At Elon’s behest. 😉

    2. bro1999 says:

      Bolt inventory was limited the first few months, so even people that WANTED a Bolt probably couldn’t get one, so a decent chunk of those potential Bolt buyers may have just settled on a Volt, as they were widely available AND cheaper.

      Now supply of Bolts have just reached all 50 states AND deals on Bolts are better than 7-8 months ago, so more people are buying Bolts. Plus I’m sure the Prius Prime is stealing some Volt sales as well.

  14. speculawyer says:

    Much of the current auto sales have been driven by replacement of hurricane damaged cars. It looks like many opted for a plug-in!

  15. leafowner says:

    August may have been the final month of sub 20,000 EV sales the US will ever see….There is a chance it may dip slightly below 20K in October — but as Model 3 production ramps up and Leaf 2.0 arrives — we will rapidly cross 30k, 40k, 100k per month….

  16. floydboy says:

    The EVs are coming! YEAH BABY!

  17. Jean-François Morissette says:

    I will copy my post from the September scorecard post:

    My biggest deception in the recent years is that even if we maybe in a S-curve growth on the agglomerate results, there are not really any S-curve among individual models.

    This year, the growth come exclusively from the new models (mainly Bolt, Prime and the bunch of new PHEV). The only models growing steadily are also new models like the Bolt and the BMW 530e. The Kia Soul EV and and Volvo XC90 have seen recent uptrend, but on really small volumes.

    I would have expected that year over year, main models would have greater growth. Maybe we will see that happening in 2018 and beyond with the new LEAF, the model 3.

    1. Pushmi-Pullyu says:

      “I would have expected that year over year, main models would have greater growth.”

      That’s not how things progress in a disruptive tech revolution. Individual models don’t increase sales YOY. It’s the continuing introduction of newer models, more user-friendly and with better features, which cause sales to grow in an S-curve fashion.

      Just think about what happened during the cell phone revolution, or the growth of DVD player ownership. Automobiles are more complex and more expensive, but the same rule applies.

    2. unlucky says:

      Yeah, that makes sense. I would think S curves really only come when supply lags demand and then catches up.

      Areas may even see S curves if infrastructure increases makes EVs suddenly more acceptable. But since cities go through this phase at different times from one another the nationwide ramp would still be slow growth, not an S curve.

      1. Terawatt says:

        Also, it takes time. Much longer with a product as resource and capital intensive as a car than with, say, digital cameras.

        So even if demand for a single model, say the new LEAF, were to suddenly explode, you should not expect sales to do the same over a few months. A decent production increase may be possible to implement at short notice, but not a fivefold one or even more. Anything that requires another factory means big decisions must be made, and there’s a ton of logistics involved with everything from land for the factory to building it to ensuring sufficient supply of everything needed, not to mention the need for qualified workers with many specialized skills who still need training on how to build a car they never built before.

        I think realistically it will take any manufacturer two years to respond to EV demand that far exceeds expectations. And that’s if there are no big problems ensuring supply and hiring workers with the right skills. The skill pool responds to changes in demand, but that too is usually a multi-year process to see big changes.

        1. Pushmi-Pullyu says:

          “I think realistically it will take any manufacturer two years to respond to EV demand that far exceeds expectations. And that’s if there are no big problems ensuring supply and hiring workers with the right skills.”

          Not to mention two years to arrange a significantly larger supply of EV batteries.

          I wonder how quickly Kia is going to be able to ramp up Ioniq production? It will be interesting to see if they can significantly increase supply in less than two years.

          1. unlucky says:

            A year. Not two.

            There’s no particular reason to think Kia’s problem is they couldn’t get batteries. If they ordered more batteries in advance they would have gotten them. They clearly didn’t want them or anticipate needing them. Or their shortcoming isn’t batteries at all, but a shortage of some other part they didn’t plan on making a bunch of.

            1. Pushmi-Pullyu says:

              Well, we’ll see. This should be an interesting test case, since according to reports, Kia has a strong incentive to increase production of the Ioniq Electric BEV.

              Only one year to significantly increase battery supply? Well again, we’ll see. I remember that when LG Chem started taking orders for its so-called “200 mile battery” cells, there was a two year lead time for delivery in industrial quantities. Perhaps the industry norm is a single year’s lead time; perhaps it was a fallacy for me to generalize from that one case.

              Kia already has one strike against it, for battery supply: Looks like China will be blocking sales of batteries to S. Korean auto makers.

              I’ll be watching to see if Kia can satisfy the demand for the Ioniq Electric next year!

  18. bro1999 says:

    What’s up with Ioniq Electric sales? They’ve basically gone nowhere the last few months. Simply a supply issue?

    1. unlucky says:

      36. About 80% of last month and several previous months.

      Really annoying. If I were a dealer in the SF Bay Area I’d be pissed. Ford dealers should be too, FFEs move quickly when they can get them and the lease deals are on.

      1. Jay Cole says:

        Yes, the factory in SK is/was woefully unprepared.

        For the 2018 MY it is tooled up to produced 1,800 copies a month, 900 of which will stay in Hyundai’s domestic market. So, you are never going to see any “big numbers” the IONIQ Electric (at least outside of SK).

        The company has bigger plans/more production depth for the IONIQ PHV, so that model will outsell the BEV by a large margin in the US in a month or two.

    2. Viktor says:

      Here in Sweden you need to wait 6-9 month if you order one today, production is not even close to meet demand.

  19. Scott Franco says:

    Wow, nice to see the EV market advancing. I can really see it in Silicon Valley, where you see white sticker cars everywhere (in CA white stickers mean EV cars).

    I really think next year and 2019 are going to be amazing years for EV sales. There are a lot of new cars coming online, and even the cars that don’t get the press, like VW evs are seen in great numbers here.

    So thanks again for the sales overview!

    1. unlucky says:

      White stickers are not just on EVs but also are on FCEVs and natural gas vehicles.

      It used to be in California the vast majority of white sticker cars were natural gas vehicles (including conversion Escalades!) but now it’s mostly EVs.

  20. Terawatt says:

    Several uplifting points here, and for me the BEV/PHEV split is one of them. Nearly two thirds of the cars counted here were proper electric cars in September, which should be celebrated.

    TM3 was clearly the big disappointment, although not very surprising. And it’s not possible to infer, from the low September number alone, what this actually means for the ramp-up. It’s possible to be held back by a single or a few issues and suddenly have a breakthrough that leads to rapidly getting back on track. But it shouldn’t surprise anyone if Elon’s “looks like we could reach 5,000 per week by the end of the year” guesstimate proves much too optimistic. It sure will be interesting to see how it goes this month.

    1. BenG says:

      Yep, I’ve been saying all along that Musk’s ‘blue sky’ projections for Model 3 production are going to be inevitably held back by problems with specific parts or processes.

      I expect they will successfully ramp up quite a bit this year, but I’m thinking if they hit even just 1000/week this year then they’ll be doing pretty well. 2000/week seems like a reasonably achievable goal. I’d be shocked if they hit 5000/week this year.

  21. leafowner says:

    This thinking – mainly in the US and Germany — is what will kill the traditional ICE manufacturers….

    UAW presses Ford to protect factory jobs amid EV push
    The UAW is talking with Ford Motor Co. about ways to avoid layoffs as the automaker builds more electric vehicles, a senior union official told Reuters. Ford told investors it planned to slash $14 billion in costs over the next five years and shift investments away from internal combustion engines and sedans to develop more trucks, plus electric and hybrid cars. (Automotive News)

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