EV Market Share In The US Stays Under 1% For October – Graphs

NOV 4 2016 BY MARK KANE 7

The pace of plug-in car sales growth in U.S. slowed in October, as a major manufacturer (Tesla) regenerates after an end of quarter/September rush…and prepares for a late year push.

2016 Chevrolet Volt

Chevrolet Volt

Overall, an estimated 10,832 sales (full details here) translated to a raw 9.1% increase year-over-year, but up 17.5% on an adjusted basis (as Nov 2015 had 26 selling days as compared to 28 in 2015).

Against the ~1,370,700 vehicles sold overall in the US for October, EV market share stood at 0.79% – up slightly from 2015; but when compared to recent months in 2016 (that have been showing consistent results over 0.85%and a record 1.18% in September), October was a bit of a pullback.

As noted, this slowdown can mostly be attributed to Tesla’s shifted delivery priorities from October to the back end of this quarter, leaving a vacuum of sorts in its wake.  To that end (and with the arrival of the Chevy Bolt EV and Toyota Prius Prime), we expect a number around 1.5% will be logged in December, bringing the net quarter result above the 1% level.

The average market share so far this year stands at 0.83%, while the total new sales now exceed 120,500. With two months to go, the US is nearly above its record of 122,438 EVs sold in a single calendar year (set in 2014).

Meanwhile, the Chevrolet Volt with 2,191 sales last month was the best selling model for October, which enabled GM to take top spot among manufacturers (2,454) as the last of the Chevrolet Spark EVs gave GM one final push higher.

U.S. Plug-in car sales – October 2016

U.S. Plug-in car sales – October 2016

U.S. Plug-in car sales – October 2016

U.S. Plug-in car sales – October 2016

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7 Comments on "EV Market Share In The US Stays Under 1% For October – Graphs"

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I hope EV sales break the 1% glass ceiling soon.

Hybrid stuck under the 5% sales ceiling for years and I hope the similar glass ceiling don’t repeat for EVs.

I think Bolt and LEAF 2.0 and Model 3 will help us break that ceiling. But we need more PHEV SUV/CUVs that would sure make a difference in the US market.

Given Tesla’s steadily rising 3 month sales cycle and the one off “all hands on deck” sales rush they just finished, this may be one of the last times we DON’T exceed 1% of sales in any month.

The Bolt is almost here and will show up in a small amount of sales in December but more importantly, Tesla is going to be killing it in December with their end of quarter surge.

January will be close, either just under 1% or barely over. But after January Bolt sales will ramp up and several of the little dogs will be seeing slow but steady sales growth.

I can’t wait to see BEV sales when the S, the X, the Bolt, the Leaf II and the III are all for sale in 50 states. Hopefully by the end of 2017…

What’s the market share in CA, OR, MD? While CA and MD has state rebates, OR doesn’t while many EV are available there (ie, 500e), so that would be more representative of demand if EV are available everywhere.

This article from last year indicates Oregon has a 1.5% share of EVs, attributed to its prolific charging network:

http://www.theicct.org/blogs/staff/oregon-success-story-electric-vehicles

That’s for 2014 when SparkEV was barely getting known. I’m thinking more recent and month by month. If it was 1.5% back then, I would think it’d be higher today with more DCFC and more EV available. And unlike fair weather CA, OR gets quite cold, better representing what the rest of the country might be like even without state subsidy.

Nissan (Renault/Mitsubishi) and Tesla are pushing the rest of the industry. Without them we would still be seeing only minimal compliance cars in States that require them. The primary market of mid-size cars, SUVs and pickup trucks has still not been addressed. Unfortunately we will not see growth in these main sectors until Nissan and Tesla move strongly into those markets. Tesla has taken a large bite out of Mercedes-Benz sales and now MB are very serious about bringing out EVs. Only when the other companies are hurt in their prime markets will they get serious about building EVs.

Count EVs only not PHEVs. A PHEV is no more an EV than an HEV.