GlobalData Forecasts Lithium Demand Will More Than Double By 2022

SEP 17 2018 BY WADE MALONE 13

Electric vehicle sales in Asia-Pacific and Europe will lead the growth.

Research and consulting firm GlobalData expects a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 15.6% for the global EV market through 2022. Within 5 years, global EV sales should exceed three million a year. Larger batteries and higher demand in for battery electric (BEV) and plug-in hybrid (PHEV) vehicles will boost lithium demand.

Such growth will fuel an increase in lithium mining to support the booming industry. Mining investment is expected to increase in Chile, Australia, Argentina and Canada to meet demand. According to Vinneth Bajaj, Senior Mining Analyst at GlobalData:

Several national governments are encouraging the adaption of EVs by providing various tax incentives and subsidies to the manufacturers and end users. Additionally, efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions have led to much technological advancement in EVs and made them a viable and safe alternative to traditional vehicles.

The largest increase will be in China, which is expected to boost its EV sales from 579,000 in 2017 to 1.5 million by 2022. Current government policies and subsidies are making China a lucrative market for industry investments due to which the countryโ€™s EV market is poised to grow three times as fast as the US during the outlook period.

Chinese buyers took home 50% of electric vehicles sold globally in 2017. 17% went to the United States. Norway accounted for 5.4% of global sales, followed by Germany and the UK.

The U.S. is expected to grow at a CAGR of 9.2%. This would reportedly put U.S. electric vehicle sales at 380,000 a year in 2022. However, this is a somewhat conservative prediction. U.S. plug-in sales will potentially exceed 300,000 units as early as 2018.

GlobalData says China will continue to lead in plug-in sales. China is expected to grow at three times the rate of the U.S. By 2022, China’s EV sales are expected to exceed 1.5 million a year.

Source: Green Car Congress

Categories: Battery Tech, General

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13 Comments on "GlobalData Forecasts Lithium Demand Will More Than Double By 2022"

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There are more than a few lithium suppliers that hope the market picks up soon (search for Lithium Oversupply) – no doubt this will happen for the next few years as the majority of EV batteries use lithium.

But is lithium a good investment? Maybe not if solid state batteries become reality.

Like any rising commodity on the market, lithium will generate good returns before being eclipsed by some new technology.

So what are made of the Solid state batteries?
I think this type of batteries requires even more lithium.

There are lots of different SSB chemistries. Many use a lithium metal anode instead of graphite. That would seem to increase lithium demand, but much higher Wh/kg works to offset that. SSB also has solid electrolyte which generally doesn’t use lithium vs. today’s liquid electrolytes which do.

The US will likely hit 340,000 this year. It will certainly hit 380,000 by 2019. They are being very conservative. It’s like they didn’t get the memo about Model 3 sales this last quarter.

I predict 370k+ plug-ins sold in 2018.

Yeah, these guys are clueless. Your 340k is a good estimate for 2018. Might even hit 350k.

2019 should be 400k+.

This sounds like an accurate assessment.

That’s mostly likely an understatement. The Model 3 alone has practically doubled the plug-in market.

And the hot selling plug-ins (Tesla S, Tesla X, Tesla 3, and Chevy Bolt) all use MORE batteries than the average plug-in car…so there will be far more plug-in cars AND the best-selling plug-in cars use the most batteries.

“Somewhat conservative” seems somewhat of an understatement ๐Ÿ˜‰ This prediction is just totally ridiculous. We have seen a CAGR of ~40% for the last several years, with no signs of slowing. We should see more than 2.5 millions by next year, and way more than three millions by 2020.

I would laugh at it, if it wasn’t for the fact that such nonsense can become somewhat of a self-fulfilling prophecy, by discouraging investors, thus leading to a potential lithium shortage (and supply shortages in general) actually slowing EV adoption ๐Ÿ™

Global Data has it wrong. By 2022, ICE based new car sales will have come to a near stop around the globe.
NOBODY will want to buy a new vehicle that within 2-3 years is worth less than 1/20 of the original price.

So people will stop buying cars, until EV production ramps up to cover all new car demand? I’m not entirely convinced ๐Ÿ˜‰

I’m already in this boat, my Honda CRV due to be replaced (I swap every 5 years). I am holding out for EV SUV (2 years away). Purely due to re-sale of ICE vehicle in 5 years time will be next to nothing.