Elon Musk: Tesla Model S Maximum Range – 600 Miles* In Two Years – Video

SEP 28 2015 BY ELECTRICCARSTV 46

Elon Musk Interview

Elon Musk Interview

In this video interview, Tesla CEO Elon Musk is asked to discuss range of the Model S.

Musk suggests that it could be possible to drive a Model S over 1,000 km/600 miles on a single charge within a year or two.  He goes on to say that 1,200 km/750 miles could be possible by 2020 or so.

Editor’s Note: We have to mention the Tesla CEO is talking about coaxing maximum range out of the Model S, not future EPA ratings.  The unofficial maximum-mile record today is 550 miles, set just a couple weeks ago by Casey Spensor,

In reality, Mr. Musk states the improvements year-over-year on the Model S are expected to be about 5% going forward.  Still not too bad, especially considering the decent ~280 mile/450km, “real world” range of the 90 kWh Model S today.

The range discussion begins after the 6-minute mark in the video.

Video description:

“Elon Musk interview with Danish newspaper Borsen on Sep 23 says autopilot will be out in a month, and fully autonomous driving in 3 years.”

 

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46 Comments on "Elon Musk: Tesla Model S Maximum Range – 600 Miles* In Two Years – Video"

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Giga-factory meet Mega-car. As in One MegaMeter, 1000km.

Possible but why would you do that? OK, that would be fine for the super-rich. But for most people, that would just mean paying thousands extra for batteries that you only use 0.6% of the time.

Here are a few reasons…
1. Really long trips. Yes, people buy cars to fit all of their needs, even the .6% use cases.
2. Renters. Renters need not apply to EVs right now because they can’t charge at home. If EVs had a range of 600-760 miles, you would only need to recharge them every few weeks, which would be reasonable for apartment dwellers.
3. Anybody who wants to a take a trip that isn’t currently covered by the Supercharger network. Right now, with the highest range Tesla, you can only drive ~130 miles away from home (in good weather). With a 600-750 mile car you could drive 300-375 miles from home.
4. It’s good for Tesla! Longer range means less need for installed Superchargers, which means less expense, and more people willing to buy.
5. It means less congestion as current Superchargers because people need to charge half as often.

So yeah, higher range solves a LOT of problems.

More battery = less full cycles too. And more power + faster recharge times.

Seriously?

People think those who buy a FCEV are crazy because there’s no infrastructure.
Buying an EV without a way to charge it makes as much sense as buying a propane tank for a grill (or anything that uses propane) you don’t have.

Only a Fool would do that, hence Fools Cell.

You missed the point HARD. The point was that having a very long range substantially reduces the need for a robust infrastructure.

To make the point using the simplest example possible, a person with a 70 mile BEV absolutely needs home charging and a robust charging infrastructure because the inconvenience of going out of their way every day (or ever other day) would be too great. On the other hand, a person with a 600-750 mile BEV could get away with a full charge once every few weeks, and the inconvenience of going out of their way once every three weeks would be (more) acceptable.

“Mr. Musk states the improvements year-over-year on the Model S are expected to be about 5% going forward.”

He has been very consistent about this. Other folks have been promising wonderful batteries in the near future, without any proof.

I believe Elon is correct on this.

But, hasn’t he beaten these “expectations”?

This is good news for EVs, even at the low end. If what he says is true, and I think it is, then an affordable 200-mile range EV in the next year or two is entirely plausible, and probably not only from Tesla but also from GM and Nissan. While Tesla has the best strategy and strongest innovation, will likely see similar improvements over time. The only question is at what combination of increased range and lower cost will we reach the tipping point where the general public realizes EVs are a better car to buy than ICE? That remains to be seen, but it may be sooner than most think.

600 miles in two years is 0.0328767 mph. 🙂

That’s literally snail-speed.

http://hypertextbook.com/facts/AngieYee.shtml

That is not an optimal speed if you want to drive far. 30 mph is way better or you will have other energy losses that eats up range.

Doesn’t anyone realize this is all taken out of context? He is talking about the current Model S world record, driving at like 25 mph. So everyone reading these articles thinks the normal battery range is going to more than double in two years. so annoying!

Hey Chris,

Story reads “maximum” range (even an asterisk too). It is also well articulated (if you read the story) that it is maximum range (as well as noting the record itself, w/link) – there is no confusion…and the video expresses it very clearly in case you didn’t notice the title, asterisk, editor’s note and link to record.

+1 I watched the video and Elon explained this. Unfortunately most people aren’t going to watch the entire video. 🙁

Watch the video? Heck, I don’t expect half the general population who might see this on their news feed to even read the entire story title.

I’m just counting seconds on the clock for somebody in some comment section somewhere to say that Elon is a liar, and that the Model S won’t go 600 miles, and that electric cars are a scam by GE… And Solyndra!

/sarc

… and that Elon was born in Africa …

oh wait …

So let’s see, that’s a 5% increase every year, but a 35% increase in 2 years (from 550 to 750 hypermiles). That math just doesn’t look right.

750 is 2020. The 2 year number is 550 to 600.

Yeah this would be pretty ideal for apartment dwellers as mentioned earlier. Nice!!

Maybe the 0.1% of apartment renters with a fat wallet. A better solution is to work with the HOA to install a charger in your apartment garage.

Lots of wealthy people live in Condos and are in the same situation. Building a car that works with existing infrastructure is a much faster solution than building infrastructure to suit the car. You can speak with the H2 proponents about that.

Besides, whatever applies to the high end Model S in a couple years will apply to the lower end Model 3 a few years after that.

John Hansen said: “Lots of wealthy people live in Condos and are in the same situation. Building a car that works with existing infrastructure is a much faster solution than building infrastructure to suit the car.” Seems to me that the “existing infrastructure” that supports apartment dwellers who can’t talk the landlord into installing a 220v outlet where they can charge, is gasmobiles and gas stations. Even if some auto maker did build a BEV with a 600 mile EPA range, where would they charge it up? And who would put up with waiting the number of hours necessary to charge a pack that big? The answer to this conundrum is to pressure apartment building landlords and parking lot owners to install outdoor 220v outlets, and to lobby cities to install curbside chargers in residential areas where people typically park on the street. Eventually it’s inevitable that will happen due to public pressure, just as the Model T era, the growing number of gasmobiles forced cities to be rebuilt to provide parking places and parking lots for motorcars everywhere. Installing ubiquitous 220v outdoor chargers is going to be a much, much smaller transformation of our cities that occurred in that… Read more »

The primary problem is not really even getting the outlets installed (although that is a big one). The primary problem is really determining 1) who is going to fund the installation of these outlets and 2) how will this electricity be billed?

With fuel stations (e.g. gas, diesel, H2) the funding mechanism is the company producing the fuel; however, to date electric utilities have been entirely unwilling to wade into the residential EVSE market, or even to fund the installation of “smart” 120V/240V outlets (on any sort of significant scale).

Spider-Dan said: “The primary problem is not really even getting the outlets installed (although that is a big one). The primary problem is really determining 1) who is going to fund the installation of these outlets and 2) how will this electricity be billed?” #2: The EV-Line solution seems to be practical. Every charge point has a wirelessly controlled off/on switch, and EV owners carry a portable “smart” EVSE in their car. To charge, the smart EVSE communicates with the outlet, and arranges billing with a subscription service. Note this setup would eliminate the need to have an expensive EVSE at every charge point. #1: There’s not going to be any one single answer, any more than there was one single answer of who paid to transform our cities from horse-and-buggy tech to motorcar tech. The cost will be borne by a combination of property owners, entrepreneurs who offer installation as part of their service, and municipal governments. In areas where there isn’t enough profit to be made to support commercial installations, the cost will have to be borne as some sort of “redistribution of wealth”, perhaps in a manner similar to paying for rural electrification and phone service with… Read more »

Not really, since I doubt many apartment dwellers would want to wait hours upon hours for the privilege of paying more than gasoline costs to charge at a commercial EVSE.

If you can’t charge at home on cheap off-peak rates, EVs just aren’t practical.

If the Superchargers are 125 mi apart, it doesn’t make sense for them to increment the range in smaller increments. Right?

It depends on routes chosen. You don’t want to drive 50 miles off your route just to get to a Supercharger. Lots of people going lots of directions. It seems easy, and very simplistic, when you address the I 95 corridor, but not quite so easy when going from Philadelphia to Buffalo, for example. They will have to be smart about choosing locations. My particular route means that a Supercharger in Binghamton, NY and/or Scranton, PA is extremely important. And both of those cities have North/South and East/West arteries running through them. These cities are not that far apart, but especially if you look what is East/West of both of them (which is basically nothing), the best course is probably a Supercharger in each city.

Anthony said:

“If the Superchargers are 125 mi apart, it doesn’t make sense for them to increment the range in smaller increments. Right?”

Nope.

That only works if there is literally nowhere that you can drive for 125 miles without coming across a Supercharger. That will almost certainly never happen. Tesla isn’t going to put in Superchargers along all the lonely State highways in sparsely populated States of the USA.

Since that’s not going to happen, it makes sense to put in more Superchargers along the Interstate routes, enabling more flexibility for side trips away from, and back to, the main route.

Also, more closely spaced Supercharger stations will give more options for places to stop for lunch, dinner, and rest stops.

Keep in mind, Musk was talking about hypermiling. People are getting 500+ miles on a single charge going around 25mph.

Indeed. It’s good that the article specifies the subject is “coaxing maximum range” out of the car, but it would have been more clear if the description “extreme hypermiling” had been used.

Hypothetical question: With these long range batteries coming and already here in the case of Tesla, is there any negative affect to battery life if I only commute 25 miles per day and recharge every night. Thus only using the top 5% or so of battery capacity.

That’s the basis on how your Volt is designed.
Use only the top ~70% of the ~17KWh pack is drained. The theory is the less DOD the longer the life of your pack.

I’ve seen arguments that if you have a long-range BEV, such as the Leaf, Model S/X, or BMW i3, that you shouldn’t recharge unless you use up a certain percent of the pack’s total charge… maybe 20%? The argument is that frequent shallow cycling wears out the pack faster than less frequent deeper cycling.

But I’m not sure anyone has tested that theory.

However, if you’re driving a Volt, as your screen name suggests, I doubt you should worry about that. Since the Volt’s range is more limited, and since GM apparently builds in a certain reserve to compensate for capacity loss over time, the consensus is that you should go ahead and recharge at every opportunity.

The only question I have is which two years?

IF it is not remotely related to normal driving, there is LESS than meets the eye here.

A gen1 volt will go over 80 miles, but that news isn’t horribly important to most people.

It would have been more useful if he would say the capacity, weight, and expected release date. But most people by now have learned not to get too excited regarding his statements.

How much will the battery cost to replace? If we project $100/kWh (roughly raw material cost), 90kWh would be $9000 + $1000 labor = $10,000. Battery will need replacing in about 10 years. Would you spend $10,000 to fix a 10 year old car? Maybe if it’s got some decent character (P90D is dang good at the moment), but if not, most people will junk it. Then it’ll end up in landfill / recycle which will be more expensive both in cost and to environment than simply fixing the car incrementally with smaller battery. Not sure how it’ll stand up to incrementally fixing gas car vs junking bad battery EV. Far better would be to have smaller battery that can be replaced with “reasonable” cost. How reasonable is that? Many people spend $2000-$3000 to fix 10 year old car to continue to drive it (eg. transmission). Minus labor, that puts battery size of about 10kWh to 20kWh at $100/kWh. I guess we’ll see in about 5 years if Leaf starts to end up in junk yard more often than comparable gas cars. SparkEV seem to have very good combo of small battery and special feature (0-60mph quicker than comparable cost… Read more »

Nothing says the battery needs to be replaced in 10 years. The PowerWall NCA batteries have a 15 year design life. The Model S big battery packs likely will last over 250,000 miles to 20% degradation.

We’re talking about cars, not poweralls. They have very different parameters.

I’m going by Tesla 8 year warranty then adding couple of more years. There will be outliers that last far more, but I think Tesla would’ve given it more generous warranty if it thought it’d last longer. I think they know better, and going against them is speculation without knowing.

250K you quote is miles, not years.

A vehicle with 600 miles range when new would likely still have a lot of range, even after ten years.

If range is lot lower after 10 years (2 years after warranty), say 300 miles at 25mph instead of 600miles, it might be far less at normal driving (150 miles?). I doubt people who drive Tesla would find that acceptable.

Another problem is cell balance. If some (or many) modules go bad, you may have to service the battery, not merely lower range. It’ll require pulling the battery. With the labor cost, would you want to rebuild just the bad cells and risk another problem or just replace the whole pack? I suspect not many will opt to risk builds.

SparkEV said: “Far better would be to have smaller battery that can be replaced with “reasonable” cost. How reasonable is that? Many people spend $2000-$3000 to fix 10 year old car to continue to drive it (eg. transmission). Minus labor, that puts battery size of about 10kWh to 20kWh at $100/kWh.” It doesn’t matter how cheap it is, a 20 kWh battery pack is inadequate for a BEV. Even a “city car” needs to have at least something close to 120 miles of average range, to give a comfortable safety margin to allow for reduced capacity in an aging battery pack plus reduced range in very cold weather. Assuming 3.5 miles per kWh, that means the minimum size should be approx. 34.3 kWh. (Of course, some people can get by with less, but auto makers do best when they aim for the largest market for a car, not a niche market.) And yes, I realize the current Leaf has only a 24 kWh battery pack; that’s perhaps the main reason why it’s not selling as well as the average gasmobile. The battery pack isn’t big enough to move it out of a niche market. Larger battery packs have several advantages.… Read more »

Well, maybe he really meant an honest 600 mile range. But he’s using “Tesla time” when he said 2 years – you know, how the Model X was supposed to be out in 2013 and now it might make it by end of 2015. And that Model E and 3 that might show up this decade or next?

Using the 750-780km that some hypermiler accieved in the P85D you get to 110kWh (2017) and 130kWh (2020) Batteries.

1000/750 = 1,33
1000/780 = 1,28

(1,28 to 1,33)*85 => 109-113 kWh

and the same with 1200km leads to: (1,53 to 1,6)*85 => 131-136 kWh

Apart from the discussion if long range EV’s are neccesary, I wonder what is better for the environment: a more robust and dense charging infrastructure with smaller battery sizes so people need more charging OR less charging stations, but bigger batteries.
The charging infrastructure is shared with all EV’s so it is in use as much as possible -thus minimizing the impact on the environment-, while large EV batteries will often not get fully discharged on a trip, but they will have to be manufactured and hauled around, having a big impact on weight.

The one reason to have very long range EVs is to cycle the batteries less. Rather than daily recharges 25% to 85% swings in a Volt, a Tesla driver may use only 5% to 10% of their battery state of charge. It allows for commodity batteries, which may not allow for 2000+ charges, to be used – perhaps making prices lower in the end. A 150 kWh battery using Li-S and recycling 200 times to reach 100,000 miles might be the way to go if they are cheap and high-density.