Elon Musk: Tesla Model Y Demand Expected To Be Up To 1 Million Units

AUG 4 2016 BY ERIC LOVEDAY 109

Tesla Model Y Render

Tesla Model Y Render (via RM CarDesign)

Yesterday’s Q2 report from Tesla provided us with lots of valuable information, but following that report was Tesla’s live webcast of the shareholder’s meeting, which contained a bit of info that was not discussed in the Q2 report.

Tesla CEO Elon Musk spoke at the shareholder’s meeting and provided us with one solid comment on the upcoming Model Y, the crossover based on the Model 3.

According to Musk, demand for this electric CUV is expected to be through the roof. How high…you ask? Here is how the exchange went down on the conference call:

CLSA’s Emmanual Rosner asks:

“…on the piece about expanding the product lineup to other major segments: what do you view as your target timing for that? I know there was mention of some of these cars being available to be unveiled next year, so does that mean that we are looking at the following year?…”

Musk:
“I mean, also to be clear like the priority vehicle development after the Model 3 would be the Model Y, the compact SUV because that’s also a car that where we expect to see demand in the 500,000 to 1,000,000 unit per year level. So it is the obvious priority after the Model 3.”

Of course, Musk could just be throwing numbers around, but with Model 3 reservations near 400,000 and the Y expected to appeal to a broader market, we do anticipate demand being very high.

The remaining question is when exactly will the Model Y be available. Musk didn’t provide us with an answer to that.

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109 Comments on "Elon Musk: Tesla Model Y Demand Expected To Be Up To 1 Million Units"

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Elon with his cat in his knee and pinky finger at the side of his mouth:
“100 billion units!… uh what? ok… One million units!”

Yeah, it is an exaggerated claim.

But if they succeed in building a nice crossover with 250+ miles of range and price around $35K . . . it probably will sell pretty damn big numbers.

Most people still don’t understand EVs and don’t understand their own driving patterns. But as more EVs get out there, the range goes over 200 miles, and more Superchargers are installed . . . they’ll realize that these things really work and are VERY cheap to fuel.

If the Model X lists for $5,000 more than the Model S, and the second motor for the Model S is $5,000, but Elon said it will be less than that for the Model 3, I would put a base Dual Motor Model Y in the price range of $37,500 minimum, to a more likely price of $40,000! Basic logic based on extra cost for the CUV, and extra cost for the second. motor. I could see a list base in this configuration of $42,000, since Elon figures that will be the average price of the Model 3, with average options included.

If they can deliver that, AND 250 miles base range, instead of the 3’s 215, it could easily out sell the Model 3 by 2020!

Also, remember, with 373,000 reservations, before reveal Part 2, we have no real idea of the full demand for the Model 3 yet!

With Tesla’s manufacturing expertise developing, cheaper and better batteries from GF1, economies of scale and the goal of pushing electrics instead of making a lot of profit, we could easily see a cheaper Model 3 and a Model Y under $35K, just like Henry Ford did with successive Model T production waves..

You are probably right that they won’t hit the $35K price. But I don’t think the increase will be as large as the increase from the S to X because I seriously doubt they will keep the Falcon-wing doors.

I suspect the Model Y will use normal doors and only seat 5 people. The Chassis is just too small for 7 people.

But 5 people, taller/more-upright seating, and a large hatchback accessible storage area will make it pretty darn popular.

You’ll never see a “Y” at $35000 …You can’t even buy a Ford ICE SUV That cheap…Hope I’m Wrong , Cuz I’ll be 1st in line if that should happen… cheers !

Ford would like to have a word with you…

http://www.ford.com/suvs/escape/pricing/

About what? How Ford Mothballed the PHEV Escape?

True, Ford mgmt has left the building.

But, the point was the Escape Titanium, the top of the line is at $28,000.

It was just a figure of speech , take a Pill already !…I would piss on a Ford if it were on fire !

Sure. Figure of speech. Still false and misleading. Misinformation is NOT good for EV adoption and the correction was sound. No medication necessary, nor your insult veiled by another unfortunate figure of speech.

Just joking , where’s Your Sense of humor ,don’t take things so seriously, you’re too sensitive ..Relax….

The US Big Three and Europes’ Big Guys are all looking at Tesla’s tail lights in the affordable, long milage, auto pilot, great styling designs and affordability.
My bet is on Elon Musk!

A million worldwide units a year in 2015 has been achieved by only two cars, to the best of my knowledge: the Corolla and the Golf. Both have been around for decades, cost $20K, have a range between 300-400 miles, and can be refueled in minutes from several million stalls worldwide.

If cars become self driving soon, autonomous car sharing services are likely to dampen sales further.

Ok, but what about the low end? How many cars sold 500,000 units in 2015? A look at the top 10 cars sold worldwide (all of which broke 500,000 units):

1) Toyota Corolla
2) VW Golf
3) Ford F-series trucks
4) Ford Focus
5) Toyota Camry
6) Hyundai Elantra
7) VW Polo (not available in US)
8) Honda CR-V
9) Chevy Silverado
10) Toyota Rav4

This tells me that smaller cars are still preferred, but there are a two trucks and two compact SUVs in that list. Will the Model Y really be cross-shopped against the CR-V and Rav4? Not likely IMO. But even the Rav4 (last on the list) sold 664,382 units. It’s possible that by 2020, the market will have shifted to compact SUVs far enough to sell 500,000 Model Ys. Optimistic, but possible.

Source:
http://www.autoguide.com/auto-news/2016/01/top-10-best-selling-cars-in-the-world-for-2015.html

I drive a RAV4 EV – 100 mi range.
We have been planning on our second vehicle to be a PHEV crossover.

However, if the Y will be available in the mid $40 price range we may just wait….

You have a pretty great vehicle now, not to mention rare. I can understand waiting longer to get a full BEV replacement.

Thank you, and I am not planning on parting with the RAV4 EV either.

I am planning on a replacement for our other vehicle. We were planning on the Outlander PHEV but may wait a little longer for the Y.

We drove a 2016 Rav4 hybrid over the weekend and its EV mode is so sad, can’t go above 20mph nor accelerate off the line at a light even carefully without the gas engine kicking back in. You can use it to move the car in a parking lot maybe. This should be so much better in 2016, even the 2013 Volt can do better.

Actually with autonomous and ride sharing services, we may see a general shift for the overall market to more CUVs, though the total volume might go down. If only ride sharing services are buying cars, I think they will go toward the larger vehicle. And since more people will not need to own a car, they won’t be getting the smaller compacts as often.

I think ride-sharing and autonomy will play an ever increasing and significant part of future transportation. But I think it may be twenty years or more before it has a significant impact on private individual sales. There are generations of North American drivers who quite enjoy owning and physically driving a car and won’t give them up easily or quietly. Regulation and taxation will curtail private ownership far sooner than it’s benefits will.

Sure, just like they enjoyed owning horses…

IMHO Y will see 300K sales at best.

At minimum. Fixed that for you.

Is not the Model 3 being offered as a AWD? If so what difference is the Y expected to provide. Am guessing its like the difference between the Subaru Impreza and CrossTrek; mostly a lift kit and some plastic, so should be available very quickly (in Tesla timescales) after the 3.

I’m guessing the very question you asked is why the Model 3 is not getting a hatch but will be a sedan with a trunk. Tesla is claiming that the structural cross-bar overhead in the back seat needed for a hatch is too low for headroom in the Model 3 so they pushed it forward giving the back seat occupants’ heads more room with just the back window glass overhead. Then if they wanted to do a hatch it would be too long and heavy for the struts so they made it a fixed back window with a trunk instead. With the Model Y they can make it taller with more headroom in the back. Enough to accommodate the roof structure further toward the back and over the back passengers’ heads and a normal hatch to go with it. They could have tried to design the Model 3 to be however many inches taller needed to make it a hatch just like the Model S but if you look at pictures of the 3 showing the back seats the roof is pretty raked back and low slung so it may have been impossible to add enough height for this low… Read more »

Exactly. Very well said.

“philip d” said:

“It also may partially be a convenient excuse to differentiate and rationalize having both the 3 and the Y.”

That occurred to me, too. Sedans outsell liftbacks/hatchbacks in the USA. Tesla may well have decided to go with the sedan design for the first entry in the line, figuring it will sell well; and the CUV design will expand the market.

I also agree with your assessment that this may only partially be the motive. There may well be multiple reasons, including the stated one of the difficulty of placing the upper/forward seam for the liftgate above passengers’ heads, while still maintaining overall low drag for the body design.

My guess: Taller, easier to get in & out of, hatchback, larger storage space.

But only 5 seats and no Falcon-wing doors.

If the Model 3 had around 400k reservations in a few days, knowing how much more people like CUVs than sedans, a million is not so far fetched.

Agreed, if the 3 was a CUV we would have plunked down a deposit.

Also agree. US maybe the prime market which prefers sedans but pretty much the rest of the world has a preference for hatchbacks, particularly high poulation countries such as India & China.

poulation = population, apologies

“A million worldwide units a year in 2015 has been achieved by only two cars, to the best of my knowledge: the Corolla and the Golf.”

Until recently, there were no car or any kind of product at all that would generate as much interest / money as the model 3 did.

There you go… 500K to million cars per year is highly possible.

Seems possible, but then why not build the Y first if demand was so high? Well, I think Tesla acts pretty much like the learning machines they are building. They are learning as they go and getting better.

While most car companies have had decades to advance personal transport they merely continue to exist, foisting their inferior products on the worlds drivers. Then along comes a bunch of geeks and nerds to show how it should be done.

Model 3 will be more aerodynamic and require less material and thus be cheaper to make with a decent range.

Let battery prices drop a little more before building the less aerodynamic model.

+1

+1
also the model 3 will be a serious performance machine. it needs to be more aero.

I think it was a wise move. It will probably be more popular than the 3, which they are working overtime to ramp up properly as it is. The 3 will also offer better performance and efficiency figures than the Y, and attract more attention in the cross section of green and performance car enthusiast press that built their great reputation.

This company may be audacious, but it is following a path that made the reputations of companies like Porsche or BMW. Just greatly accelerated and in the U.S. It really is joy to witness.

Another portion of long tales pumping stock in preparation for yet another round of secondary dumping, sorry, offering. Meanwhile the promised capital expenditure target of $2.25 billion is forgotten*, with $300 mln only spent in second quarter. Sure, money is needed to bail out SolarCity first and all these Model 3 and battery factories, new service centers and superchargers for hundreds of thousands of Model 3s on road next year may wait till better times. Just don’t loose your faith, keep believing in bright future and the Leader.

* Tesla letter to shareholders: “we are reevaluating our level of capital expenditures, but expect it will be about 50% higher than our previous guidance of $1.5 billion for 2016”

Bailing out SCTY won’t take any cash if they do it right. Lay off most of the expensive sales and installation force and let lease cash flow cover the remaining expenses.

It would embarrass Musk if SCTY did that as a highly visible public company, but hidden within the much larger Tesla it will barely be noticed.

FUD…

zzzzzzzzzz said:

“Tesla letter to shareholders: ‘we are reevaluating our level of capital expenditures, but expect it will be about 50% higher than our previous guidance of $1.5 billion for 2016’ ”

Only someone suffering from TES* would try to insinuate that somehow it’s a bad thing that Tesla will be borrowing more money to ramp up growth faster over the next two to four years. The rest of us will be applauding as Tesla grows even faster than before!

Go Tesla!

*Tesla Envy Syndrome

“Just don’t loose your faith”

Loose the faith! Release the hounds!

I find this humorous, the double standard regarding crossovers.
————–
GM: We will be selling a 200 mile EV crossover this fall, 2016!

Tesla fanboys: BOOOO! We want the Model 3. Nobody wants a lame crossover!

(one week later)

Tesla: We plan to offer an EV crossover sometime in the far future after we deliver other vehicles, but who knows when.

Tesla fanboys: YAY! Finally! Why can’t anyone else do what Tesla does?!

I will take a look at the Bolt when and if it becomes available in my area. I found a number that are fans of Tesla were not happy about it, the Model III, not being a hatchback, and said so.

Your assessment seems a bit one sided, and designed to indicate their, Tesla fanboys,(a pejorative term), judgement is suspect and can’t be relied on. Poisoning the well.

The term “fanboy” is by definition someone who is a die-hard fan and has blinders on when it comes to rational thought.

I would say that definition lacks specificity.

Not so much. The root word of fan is fanatic. Fanatical behavior is what separates fans from honest admirers.

LOL! Pretty much sums it up.

I personally prefer the sportier Model III, but recognize that crossovers are hot sellers.

Physically, there’s things I like/dislike about the Model 3/Bolt EV. Honestly I wish I could do a mashup somehow between the two.

Outside of the vehicles, I like knowing there’s a Supercharger network for the Model 3. However I am much more confident in the reliability of the Bolt EV, and my ability to get it serviced, and quickly, if necessary.

I think you and I are pretty much on the same page. I will consider both, for sure. I’ll also consider other options, like another Leaf. My only requirement is 100% BEV. I like that the Model III is sporty and comes with RWD. The supercharger network is untouchable in extent. But I have serious doubts about the cost of ownership of any Tesla at this point. The Bolt will likely be rock-solid like the Volt. The Model III will probably be plagued with expensive repairs like the Model S.

BTW, I would prefer a *real* dash layout to whatever novelty Tesla likely has planned. I still want to drive the car…

Purely anecdotal, but my Spark is my first GM vehicle among 30 in 35 years. And it’s required nothing more than a single tire rotation in 18 months and 9k miles. It’s crazy. Not a recall, a hiccup, or a second thought. Portland is one of it’s biggest markets and you see them everywhere in the inner city here. On the street or in an owner’s forum, these are some very happy drivers.

GM has plenty of baggage, and I’m anything but a fan. But both the Volt and the Spark EV are highly regarded, reliable and affordable. They were improved in their production lifetimes while becoming LESS expensive. From a purely practical standpoint, they deserve serious consideration wherever they are available.

If the Bolt follows precedent, it won’t be surprising,

I absolutely understand. I really want to support Tesla, and have little doubt that the 3 will be wonderful. But I genuinely love subcompact and city cars, and Tesla has no plan for one any time in the foreseeable future. I’ll remain a great admirerer, but not an owner.

By the time my Spark EV Lease is up summer 2018, the Bolt may have some similarly configured and sized competition. Then again, range is not an issue for me as it is. Actually buying a low mileage used EV might be quite tempting. Hmmm, I wonder what a Spark EV or BMW i3 will go for in 2018?

Greater range of choice is almost always good for consumers.

The key word there in the criticism of the Bolt is not “crossover”, but “lame”.

The Bolt is what it is, and what it is is a not very aerodynamic, boxy, functional, FWD urban/suburban electric people mover. The “fanbois” are just people who want more than that.

If.. (play along), the Bolt EV did not exist, and Tesla revealed it as their Model Y, the fanboys would say it’s the best crossover in the world.

It’s all about subjectivity and objectivity has gone out the window.

We already know the Bolt in many ways… it’s a close sibling of the Chevy Trax and Buick Encore. The aerodynamics suck at over 8 sq ft CDa. It will have 50 kW maximum DC charging. Basically, it’ll be an electric Encore at best, which sells for $24k starting price, but they will ask $37k for it, $30k after tax break. They likely only aimed to build 25,000 of these for the first year, and without major investment in battery production, likely tops out at 50,000 annual production. Since they don’t expect their cost of cells to drop until after 2019, their prices will also stay at this plateau. The Model 3 is aimed at the Audi A4/BMW 3 series, or other cars that already sell in the mid 30k to 60k. It has much better aerodynamics than even the S. We expect top notch electronics and driver assistance as well as optional access to the best DC and destination charging networks. Now, the Y is after the 3, presumably because they need yet another step change in the battery chemistry. Tesla is the most aggressive at obtaining the lowest cost per kWh, the highest specific energy, and the largest… Read more »

We could get in a long discussion about what’s better/worse about car A/B, but I’m tired of that discussion. It’s like all/most internet debates where no one will ever change their opinion, so there’s no point.

Back to my original point, which was the blinders on the Tesla fanboys makes me LOL. And this is coming from a Tesla “fan” & M3 reservation holder.

Different vehicle sizes, classes, space, driving dynamics and price. And different buyers. This is a given. Celebrating your favorites is a given. All is good.

And then comes the “judgement” of the “alternatives”. Thoughtless, even mean or violent, it isn’t one of human’s better traits.

You’d be right if Bolt would be a CUV.

Definitions (marketing) vary but to most (me included is a compact hatchback). I like hatchbacks the only 2 things I don’t like about the bolt is the lack of superchargers (BIG reason) and the fact that it is GM (because of the ignition scandal, buying one would make me feel as if I would reward a callous criminal). But it’s not a CUV.

A hatchback is irrelevant if something is a CUV, in fact most CUVs are hatchbacks.

The higher seating in the Bolt is what places it into the CUV territory. Are there bigger CUVs? Sure. But the Bolt has more interior room than the Model S, so don’t let the exterior fool you.

I’m not even going to respond to your other rhetoric. Dead horse.

Do you have the dimensions for the Bolt? I was under the impression that it is the size of a C-Max or smaller?

Kdawg, there seems to be 3 major issues with the Chevy Bolt
1) It’s made by GM and some people have a real beef with GM. Between actively engaging in obstruction of other EV makers through corrupt politicians and killing 142 people in order to save money on fixing the ignition switches, people are fed up with GM.
2) The lack of supporting supercharger network is a deal breaker for many. It wouldn’t matter who built the supercharger network, only that the Bolt has no access to one.
3) IMO, the price is a huge issue for people. Not that they cannot afford $37K, but it’s $37K base price for a sub-compact Chevy. Since the Chevy Bolt has a $37K base price, GM is saying the Bolt is worth $2000 more than the Tesla Model 3 base model (LMAO!). At that price point, people are going to rationalize every which way against the Bolt.

“but it’s $37K base price for a sub-compact Chevy.”

Maybe GM is so good at design. Somehow it managed to have more interior passenger volume than Model S!! Yes, that subcompact $37K according to you manage to have more interior passenger volume than your $73K Model S.

who is subcompact now?

Or you actually like big on the exterior, small on the interior cars like Fisker Karma?

Time will tell how successful the Chevy Bolt sells at a $37K base model price.

I drove a Buick Encore for over a year. I was satisfied with the cargo capability, given that it’s a sub-compact CUV. Good design or not, it’s not some Star Trek episode where it’s going to open a different dimension cargo area the size of an earth mover. The outside dimensions will be the limiting factor.

Kdawg said: “Tesla fanboys: BOOOO! We want the Model 3. Nobody wants a lame crossover!” ffbj is right; your assessment is rather lopsided. Speaking only for myself, this Tesla fanboy’s complaints about the Bolt are basically only two: 1. That GM won’t be making it in large numbers 2. That GM apparently won’t be equipping it for DC fast charging As I’ve said before, it’s simply wrong to argue that the Bolt and the Model ≡ will primarily compete with each other, or that sales of one will eat into the sales of the other. No, both will be in higher demand than production can meet, at least in the first 2-3 years, so both will sell all the auto makers can build. And if GM actually ramps up Bolt production to the point that it arguably does actually begin to compete with the Model ≡, then I for one will applaud GM for finally showing real commitment to the EV revolution! In the first few years of production at least, the primary competitor for both cars will be gasmobiles, not other 200+ mile BEVs. Kdawg also posted: “The term ‘fanboy’ is by definition someone who is a die-hard fan… Read more »

I frankly agree with you. Too much blind Tesla devotion is slowly, ever so slightly dampening my love for this company. Hype is great but just like any AAA game title or movie, Tesla has too much & not enough substance to stand behind it.

Don’t get me wrong Tesla has done many great things & made success happen. However in a more rational light their recent financial standing, recalls/reliability issues are glaring omissions when the company comes to discussion. As much as most Tesla fanboys want to believe, Elon Musk isn’t always the last word in the automotive world. EV or not.

I’m all for the EV revolution but the world needs competition to grow. The Bolt would be a great rival & possibly be a better car for some then the Model 3. E.g. We need to SEE PAST THE BADGE. Given how spartan the Model S was in its category, I won’t hold my breath for the “$35k” interior of the Model 3 in comparison to its rivals & the “mainstream” Chevy Bolt.

The big question . . . will the Model Y have the Falcon-Wing doors?

I certainly hope not. I think they are really cool but the added cost, complexity, leaks, potential malfunctions, etc. ARE NOT WORTH IT.

Yes, please no falcon doors for Model Y. No need to pay extra 3-5K for that.

Nevermind how you can’t carry anything on the roof, ever.

Falcon wing doors should remain an exclusive offering for the Model X. I wish them luck with the Model X, however I will not buy any vehicle with falcon wing doors. That goes for suicide doors as well.

ditto

“The big question . . . will the Model Y have the Falcon-Wing doors?”

How about no FWDs?

Also, make sure 2nd row seats fold flat. Good headroom in 2nd row seats. Plenty of space behind 2nd row. No automatic front doors.

For a company that doesn’t rely on salesmen to sell their cars, Elon Musk has to be the biggest salesmen with his constant big talk of the future products.

(I will note that I absolutely love the idea of direct sales and I congratulate Tesla for fighting the nonsense dealership agreements in the states. I only wish other car companies break their dealer contracts and take them to court so they can sell directly to consumers as well)

These stupid predictions are nothing more than making shareholders feel safe about their investment in Tesla and maybe investment some more so Tesla can have more capital to continue funding it’s expensive growth.

Stop talking about future products and praise the products you already have man.

BullEconomy said:

“These stupid predictions are nothing more than making shareholders feel safe about their investment in Tesla…”

It’s truly amazing, not to mention irritating, how investors see everything that Tesla does as if it’s motivated by trying to push up the stock price. In fact, some investor comments seem to assume that Tesla’s purpose in making and selling cars is merely to advertise stock sales!

Nope, dude; Tesla’s primary goal is to sell cars; its secondary goal is to end the burning of fossil fuels to power transportation. Selling stock is merely a means to those ends, and not vice versa! Those are the primary goal of Elon’s salesmanship, too.

Please take off your blinders!

Tesla’s goal has changed. The new phrase is “accelerate the advent of sustainable energy”. The company is moving away from being a car company even though that’s primarily how it makes money.

Their stock price matters a lot you naive little kid. The company is resource poor, it doesn’t help that they don’t keep the profit instead of reinvesting it in growth either.

P/P: You may not like the topic but there is no way that Tesla as a business can be separated from the drama of TSLA share price. For the foreseeable future they are entirely dependent on financing to stay solvent, especially if you believe Musk, speaking here in the Q1 CC: “So as a rough guess, I would say we would aim to produce 100,000 to 200,000 Model 3s in the second half of next year. That’s my expectation right now. Yeah, so that’s the thing.” The shareholder letter clearly states this about 2cm above Musk’s signature: “Despite the disciplined pace of capital spending in the first half of this year, we still expect to invest about $2.25 billion in capital expenditures in 2016, in support of our accelerated production plan for Model 3.” That means about $1.75B more this year. So where does that leave us as of 30 June: Cash and cash equivalents $3.2B Scheduled CaEx remaining $1.75B Accounts payable $1.6B Accounts receivable $18M Without accounting current portion of Long-Term liabilities and other small assets and liabilities, the expected shortage in cash through the end of 2016 is about $130M (3.2 – 1.75 -1.6 + 0.018). And this… Read more »

Remember, there will be a second revealing closer to the release date of Model 3. Guess that’s when Telsa will tell us that Model Y is ready for ordering as well. Same platform, no falcon wing doors, so should be possible. Elon told us he will revolutionize production, too… Model 3 orders can be changed if you wish to..just my thoughts 😉

If the Model Y was available at the same time as the Model 3, then I’d consider a Y instead of my pre-ordered 3.

But the Y will certainly be more expensive, and I’m more interested in a lower-priced car.

erfahrbar said:

“Model Y is ready for ordering as well. Same platform, no falcon wing doors…”

That remains to be seen. Elon has said they might put FW doors on the Model Y. My guess is it depends on how many problems they have with the FW doors, and how much negative publicity over problems with them.

Personally, I hope that if they do make them available on the Model Y, that they’ll be an option rather than standard equipment. I fully realize that means they’ll actually have to make two different models. But as I’ve pointed out before, it used to be fairly common for American makers of sedans to make a station wagon version of a sedan, and I think it should be no more difficult to make two versions of the Model Y, so that one version can have sliding minivan doors rather than FW doors.

In fact, I hope that eventually Tesla will offer that option for the Model X, too.

If one of the models would reach 500k (or maybe 750k together) sales it would be out of this world and better than any competitor.

One million together… Beyond ludicrous. One million each? That is almost like a mission to Mars.

If someone can do it it’s Elon. I would not bet against him but I would expect the timeframe to be a decade or so.

I JUST WANT A HATCHBACK (with SuperCharger Capability)!!

If the Model 3 still has Tiny Trunk Syndrome, then I’ll wait for Model Y. 🙁

@Anon,
Consider a CPO Tesla Model S.

I love the Models S’s hatchback…it continues to amaze me what I can fit in that car.

The vehicle is just too big. So is the Model X.

Taking the “500K to million Model Y cars per year” statement from EM and bouncing it against past predictions or even worse: guidance…

I’d say that the lower end (500k)just for Y is barely achievable. They’d need a whole ‘nother line to do that and still sell S, 3, and X in large(ish) volumes.

Globally, it’s possible, at least for the platform as a whole – 500k Model Ys, 400k Model 3s, and 100k next-gen roadsters. If I had a family and a 3-car garage, I’d have one of each. 😀

I’m cautiously optimistic about the production version of the Model 3. At this point, though, I think it is just as likely that I’ll end up dropping my reservation and picking up a CPO S75D when my number comes up.

I hope the Y has a more traditional rear hatch than that rendering.

I like that Model Y rendering. It is beautiful and well balanced.

200 mile electric taxi. You know it will be a huge market.

SparkEV-Fiat500-Leased - M3 Reserved - Bolt- TBD

First vaporware 3 and already concept car Y expectations.

Will probably get our discounted CARB Bolt and then hope the 3 comes under the federal mark in time or will simply wait out for the Y specs and drive our G37 into the ground.

Supercharger and distance driving is overstated IMHO.

You mean vapor ware found running on the streets? By definition your statements evaporated into thin air.

“SparkEV-Fiat500-Leased” said:

“First vaporware 3…”

Now, do you really not know the definition of “vaporware”? Or are you just trolling here?

Quoting Wikipedia:

“…vaporware… is a product, typically computer hardware or software, that is announced to the general public but is never actually manufactured nor officially cancelled. Use of the word has broadened to include products such as automobiles.”

Unless you really think Tesla Motors is never going to put the Model ≡ into production, then your comment amounts to bashing. If that wasn’t you intent, then please cease using the term “vaporware”.

I wonder where the 2nd Gigafactory would go to supply this beast.

Mr Musk had better start on GF2 pretty soon, because GF1 won’t have the capacity even when fully finished.

I’m wondering when Tesla just absorbs Panasonic’s Battery Division…

“I’m wondering when Tesla just absorbs Panasonic’s Battery Division…”

PCRFY’s AIS division is a $28B business. How exactly would Tesla do this?

When the time is right, make an offer, and buy them out.

I didn’t say it would happen soon. But given the fast diversification of products Tesla is soon to release (Automotive, Storage, Solar, etc.), eventually the price won’t be a problem, and it will make more sense to merge.

Florida space coast for GF 2 would be a good location.

People are narrow minded. They think when Elon is talking 500k-1 mil units and think US sales. Worldwide- now this is possible, but 1 mil tough for any one model.

Yes he is very aggressive with goals but he meets them. People freak out when the lower estimate is reached- yet it still reached the estimate!

I think 500K is for sure possible…

1Million is on the high side. Maybe 750K.

But the key is What happens to SC coverage and capacity when there are millions of Tesla on the road?

Elon better keep up with the demand. No wonder he needs his own power company because those SC would be drawing tons of power.

Another Euro point of view

OK… anyway always nice to have Elon around to keep us entertained.

Some are more easily entertained than others.

But some others, are actually inspired.

Hey, Eric: You still believing every projection Musk makes? Remember this one reported faithfully by you in May of 2016: “Tesla Powerwall Sold Out Through Mid 2016” (http://insideevs.com/tesla-powerwall-sold-mid-2016/)? Just to catch us all up, these are Musk’s exact words, not quoted by you but referenced and attributed: —– The response has been overwhelming, okay, like crazy. In the course of like less than a week, we’ve had 38,000 reservations for the Powerwall, 2,500 reservations for Powerpack. The Powerpack, it should be noted, typically this is bought by utilities or large industrial companies for heavy industrial work. So, typically Powerpack, it’s like at least 10 Powerpacks per installation. So if there’s 2,500 reservations, actually 25,000 Powerpacks. Powerwall also we suspect is probably an average of number of Powerpacks, it’s probably 1.5 to 2 per installation. So, 38,000 reservations is more, like 50,000 or 60,000 actual Powerwalls. So, I mean, there’s, like, no way that we could possibly satisfy this demand this year and we’re basically like sold out through the middle of next year in the first week. It was just crazy. We had 2,500 requests from companies that want to distribute and install the Powerwall and Powerpack. We can’t even… Read more »

500,001 is in between 500k & 1 million too. Why pick the absolute top number?

Not doubting the numbers — but by going with the pre-orders for the Model 3 — a figure in that range is “possible” (if they could make enough batteries that is…)

Another note: The top gasser manufacturers (Toyota, GM and VW) make 10 million units per year……who says the eventual top EV makers will not be in the same range? If Tesla sticks with only a handful of global models then the big sellers in the 1 million globally is not out of the question. It will depend on what the competition does in a few years.

The Gigafactory can produce enough batteries for FIFTEEN million cars.

And each car can have a 100 kWh battery.

Alaa, your numbers might be a touch on the generous side. I believe the Gigafactory is targeting 35GWh in 2018. At your specified 100kWh battery pack size, this is 350K cars. Elon said it might be possible to achieve a 5x to 10x output. While Elon is a genius, he’s usually on the optimistic side in his statements. If I had to pick a number, I’d say they’ll achieve 70GWh (2x) per year by 2020. At 70GWh coming out of GigaFactory 1 and an average vehicle battery pack size of 75kWh, that’s close to a million vehicle battery packs per year. This ignores a certain percentage of those batteries will be for stationary storage and not for vehicle manufacturing. You’re target of 100kWh per vehicle is interesting. Most people are figuring Musk will release the Model 3 at 215 EPA rated miles and are estimating a ~55kWh pack. Most of these comments were made before BMW said their 3 series will have 300 miles electric range by 2018. Of course that’s based on the EU standard and EPA range will be in the ~240 mile range. I doubt Elon Musk will package the Model 3 with a lower baseline than… Read more »