Musk: Tesla Model 3 Average Selling Price To Be $42,000, Update: 253K Deposits In


Elon Musk Tweet

Elon Musk Tweet (@elonmusk)

Tesla Model 3

Tesla Model 3

According to a Tweet put out by Tesla CEO Elon Musk , the reservation tally in 24 hours for the Model 3 (full details/specs) hit 180,000.

In addition, Musk was doing some napkin math to figure out what that 180,000-unit figure means for Tesla financially. According to Musk, 180,000 reservations times the average Model 3 selling price will net the company $7.5 billion.

Update:  Give it a couple hours (April 1st ~noon), and up the number goes.  Tesla CEO Elon Musk says 198,000 is the current Model 3 deposit reservation tally!  And that you should order soon!

Apparently the surging Model 3 tally was enough to even prompt an avatar change…good-bye non Violin playing Musk, hello 3 horizontal slashes!

The Virtual Wait Line Lengthens - Musk Tweets Encouragement To Get On Board The Model 3 Train Quick

The Virtual Wait Line Lengthens – Musk Tweets Encouragement To Get On Board The Model 3 Train Quick

Update 2: (April 1st, 8PM/PT): Just ~34 odd hours after orders opened in the US, Musk says the total deposits have now passed a quarter million!

Tesla Model 3 Deposits Reach 232,000

Tesla Model 3 Deposits Reach 232,000

Update 3:  Early “Day 3” (Saturday, April 2nd) update moves the number to 253,000.  Musk says he will update a final “Day 3” total, then one next Wednesday for the full week.

Up we go!

Up we go!

But it’s the revelation of average Model 3 price that is most intriguing. Musk says that with an average option mix, the Model 3 will have a selling price of approximately $42,000, which is far less than most predictions have stated in the past.

Sure, a top of the line Model 3 will still cost way more than $42,000, but knowing that you can get a decently equipped 3 for just a hair over $40,000 is a welcoming message.

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216 Comments on "Musk: Tesla Model 3 Average Selling Price To Be $42,000, Update: 253K Deposits In"

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I would want awd, winter package, Ridiculous Speed, no glass roof, and perhaps a few other amenities, probably coming in around 50k.

BTW.., the article states that @ $42,000 per car X 180,000 Cars They will “Net 7.5 B$$” N0T TRUE…But,they will Gross $7.56 B$..Net is always after Expenses & taxes..They Do NOT Get the Parts, Materials & Labor to build these cars for Free…..Right?

He never said Net 7.5B. He was referring to about 7.5B in a day sales is good.

I believe, 75% of these “refundable reservations” will vanish within a year for various reasons. We will only know that next year.

See Through, is that you?

It’s possible some may drop off over the next two years as competition arrives, but keep in mind that people have dropped $1000 onto this car, and thousands stood in line for hours. This isn’t just a passing interest in the Model 3. These people really want this car.


Elon mentioned 70% of Model X reservations are being delivered. so you may be a little too pessimistic!

The reservation cancellation rate of the S was 25% or less according to the consensus of several in

Tesla now has over 200,000 solid orders, even after a 25% cancellation, which is a backlog of over a year! GO TESLA!

Tesla pre-orders are about double most predictions. If this continues, they could sell 1 MILLION Model E worldwide per year, double the 500K predicted. The E in 5 years might give them an Apple-like market cap!

In the stage of denial I see, good luck with that Dr FUD Spreader.

Yes, perhaps, and we were only expecting what, 40,000 reservations the first day…..

I believe you are completely wrong.

Tesla reservation holders have been extremely loyal. Despite numerous delays, especially with the Model X, few have cancelled.

I believe there will be 500,000 to possibly a million reservations by the time the Model 3 ships.

It’s perfectly normal to speak of “netting a sale” and to “net X dollars of sales”. I believe that was the usage in this case.

yupyup, net as in ‘gain’, not ‘net profit’. “That guy netted a nice girlfriend”

AWD, Autopilot, glass sunroof, cold weather package, bigger battery, Red, Performance if it gets the credit.

As long as you have enough of a tax liability the year of delivery (and you receive it before the (non refundable) tax credit is phased out – the year after 200,000 qualifying vehicles have been sold).

How can anybody day how much they think the car will cost without knowing how much each of the options costs????? You can’t use Model S option costs because the Model 3 is meant to be a lower priced auto. So let’s cool the jets and wait for the option prices to come out.

Agree, my comment was more like a wish list than a firm order, if options are Model S priced, the will be hard decisions. Hoping they take more of the approach used by most car in this category such as eGolf or Leaf with three or four trim levels something like SE, bare bones model. LE including AWD, cold weather package, better performance, a larger battery and fixed glass roof. XE includes LE features, Ludicrous Performance interior package, sunroof and high end sound. With the high end being 10-15k more than the bare bones.

Well, the cold weather package is separate zone heated rear seats (both S and 3 have 3 rear seats), heated windshield wipers and such (S and 3 each have the exact same number of these things). I say that will still be $1k. Then, consider that the “full-auto” autopilot will most likely have the same functionality, algorithms, sensor inputs, onboard computing requirements, etc., so I say that would still be $2.5k. Since the packs are smaller, and it probably wouldn’t take a 20kWh jump to make a significant difference in range and acceleration, so instead of the current $13k gap between S70D and S90D, it might be “only” $8k, or maybe as much as $10k (think 55kWh to 65kWh or something like that). There is less surface area, so the paint options *might* be a hair cheaper, but unless you go for the special white or red, the other metallic colors are only $1k upgrades for the Model S, anyway. They both have 4 wheels, but if the Model S has 19″ and 21″, and the X has 20″ and 22″, then the 3 might have only 16″ or 17″ base rims. That would be cheaper, and the tires would… Read more »

I think the auto-pilot functions may all be standard. They’ve already stated that all the security-relevant features are standard, and apart from self-parking, I think there’s a security aspect to all of them. Selling just self-parking ability as an option is feasible, but it would probably have to be fairly cheap and I reckon they want simplicity in the configurator as well, so options will be somewhat larger functionality bundles than this.

The biggest question mark for me is whether AWD will only be available in a pricey top-performance version or whether there will also be a 3D. If there’s a 3D with only moderately more power than the base model but dual motors, what would it cost? Here in Norway four wheel drive is a boon in winter…

Nope, I fully expect the “autopilot convenience features” as outlined in the Model S options package is what we are going to see with the Model 3. The self-steering will not be standard – no way. They do need to make money. Remember, he said that the “hardware” will be standard, which also means that the safety features will be standard (proximity warnings, lane drift warnings, etc.). But the self-steering and summon features will almost certainly be extra, and since it’s the same effort, thought and algorithms needed, then we, the customer, should pay for it. $2.5k option. If they don’t include the “summon” feature, then maybe $1.5k. IMHO, it is not reasonable to expect them to just give most of that away in a $35k car, when they don’t even do that with the $70k car.

Thanks for your thoughts! At this point my hopes were more along the lines of car cost half as much so options should be half as much too.(maybe a little optimistic), but if you want to sell a lot of loaded cars that would do it! 🙂

Holy crap with 180k reservations in…and if they become purchases the federal tax credit is depleted…the early bird does get the worm LOL

180k worldwide. But even considering a super conservative 50k domestic reservations, it doesn’t look like non-reservers getting the credit. Tesla has sold 90k. There are 2 years before III is fully ramped in production. Tesla is putting out >50k units per year.

Egad, suddenly I’m hoping the III gets to production sooner rather than later, and I was 12th in line at my local store Thursday.

i am a bit skeptical about whether these numbers are being “juiced” for PR value. it’s a bit difficult to believe that a couple of hundred thousand people would actually be willing to shell out $1,000 for a car where you don’t even know exactly what it is that you would be getting.

at the very least, this “introduction” is a very innovative use of crowdfunding because if tesla is actually going to attempt to deliver 200,000 cars next year the company is going to have to spend massively to develop a distribution infrastructure that doesn’t exist at present as the current distribution structure is more suited for small volume distribution.

“no comment” commented: “it’s a bit difficult to believe that a couple of hundred thousand people would actually be willing to shell out $1,000 for a car where you don’t even know exactly what it is that you would be getting.” There is a difference between hyping, which Tesla is certainly guilty of, and frequently so; and outright lying about income and business performance. Wouldn’t inflating the number of reservations constitute fraud, in being a false material statement affecting Tesla’s stock prices and its corporate performance? I’m neither an investor nor a legal expert, but I think the SEC would come down on Tesla pretty hard if they were lying about those numbers. “…if tesla is actually going to attempt to deliver 200,000 cars next year…” Tesla will attempt no such thing. All corporate plans are geared to an approx. 58% growth per year, to reach its planned annual production of 500,000 (S+X+≡) cars per year by 2020. Tesla has been struggling hard enough to even achieve 50% growth per year, and generally slightly missing that; ~58% will be even harder. There are just too many obstacles to ramping up faster yet: Hiring and training new employees, accelerating buildout and… Read more »

On the other hand 180k reservations mean that Tesla wont have any issues with raising moneys. So in theory they could speed build out.

They may do that.

200,000 deposits does not mean that those deposits were made by 200,000 different people and i have seen no representations by tesla that have stated as much, so i don’t see the “fraud” that you infer. i think that it’s more like some of these radio talk shows that have “plant” callers to call in as a seed to keep people listening to the program.

as to the number of cars to be delivered next year. if you have 200,000 individuals making deposits, how many of them would know that they can’t expect to get a car for several years? based on what you are suggesting, the people making these deposits not only don’t know what the car is that they will ultimately get, but they also don’t know when they are going to get it. do you think that the average reasonable person would be willing to part with $1,000 on the basis of such a proposition?

because i would never make a deposit on that basis, that’s why i find it hard to believe that hundreds of thousands of “reservations” actually means an equal number of individuals making the reservations.

For having “no comment”, you sure have plenty of them, and not necessarily reasonable, either.

Think. Tesla is not known like Chevy, or even Acura. People lining up, sight unseen, like I did, to put a whopping $1k down…we know what we are getting into.

It is absolutely no surprise whatsoever to any reservation holder. Musk, and the graphic behind him, said “end of 2017”. That could mean 1 delivery, it could mean 100 or even 1k – but nobody beyond the first 1,000 or so reservations, in their right mind, is expecting the delivery of “their” Model 3 in 21 months.

To assert otherwise is trolling idiocy.

After driving a Model S for over three years, I’ve talked to quite a few people about the car. And the most common comment I’ve heard is that they think the Model S is a fantastic car, but it’s too expensive and they are waiting for affordable one. So I figured there would be a bunch of people interesting in reserving one. But I was still surprised at how long the line was at the local Tesla store. And then I saw how cool the car looked at the reveal. Over 100,000 people in the US bought plug in cars last year. And this blows all the ones even close in price completely out of the water. So why are you surprised by 232,000 reservations world wide?

Not necessarily. The 200,000 “limit” isn’t the limit. All eligible cars sold in the same quarter that car #200,000 also qualify. And the full quarter after that. After that, there’s 50% of the rebate for another six months. Hopefully Tesla makes sure car #200,000 is sold at the very beginning of a quarter, in which case the rebate is still relevant for a full year.

This is widely misunderstood so please help me in spreading the word. And do check that I’m speaking truth here! My source is Wikipedia.

Tera, your comment is spot on. There is a link to the EPA rules on the phaseout below. If you sell the 200,000th car ELIGIBLE CAR (not claimed credits, it is production numbers of eligible cars) on December 30, 2018, the credit ends on March 31 of 2019. If you sell the 200,000th car on January 2nd of 2019, the tax credit will last until June 31st, 2019. So a couple days later production of the 200,000th car gets them an additional 3 months of tax credits.
You can bet that Tesla, GM and Nissan will be watching their production levels rather closely when they get close to the 200k mark.

Hear, hear!

This is great news if they can mass produce a refined reliable product & keep the price in check…This car is awesome looking , But for Myself , I will need more Cowbell………… “Range” L O L
………….Cheers All!

Hmmm, no, if there’s anyone on the entire Internet who doesn’t need more cowbell, it’s you.

But the entire Internet thanks you for at least occasionally refraining from using that key to the left of the “A” key on your keyboard.

Funniest comment in the whole thread.

I do enjoy your comments, even if I don’t always agree with your positions.

The first thing I do when I get a new keyboard is pry off the caps lock button.
Works for me 🙂

deborah crazy train flower power

LOL !!!!! THAT IS FUNNY !!!!!!!!!!


Anyone who though that everyone was going to buy completely optioned out Model 3s and that was it was silly.


He also said the base model 3 will have everything most people want and need. After the Fed $7.500 that’s very low so a few added items like Super Charger enabled, auto pilot enables and panoramic sun roof will not be too much, maybe 40 before incentives.
They may even extend incentives. There has been talks of a 10K FED incentive. Who knows but it will be worth it.

It was said that supercharging and autopilot are standard on base model, not options. However, Elon specifically said “autopilot hardware” and “autopilot safety features” were on base model which I suspect means things like collision avoidance are standard but advanced things like summon and hands-free driving are likely optional.

What Elon said was the Autopilot hardware would be standard equipment (like it is now) – However, it costs $2500 to enable Autopilot.

Still awesome prices and a fantastic car!

Yes. Elon also said “supercharger capability” or some such phrase, but not the word free, which probably means an additional up front charge if you want to make supercharging free rather than pay per use.

It is supercharger ready/enabled .Watch the video from last nite on utube…..hope this helps

I don’t think that anyone is questioning that – yes, the car will be capable, but it might require an activation fee like the S60 did at first. They were careful in their choice of words, I think – if they intended supercharger access to be free, then they would have simply said so. That’s a rabble-rouser, right there!

Elon specifically said the base Model ≡ would be “Supercharger Enabled”.
I was surprised to hear that it wouldn’t be optional.

It’s more efficient, I think, to put the hardware in all cars. Plus, that makes the car upgradeable for you or the next owner, because the functionality is only an activation fee away.

I think the only question on Supercharging and the III is, “How much will the Supercharger option cost III buyers?”
My money is on $3,000.

What would be cool is for Tesla to sell Supercharger credits. Buy 20 SC credits and each credit allows you to access a Supercharger one time. There are going to be a lot of people that will only use the SC network 4 or 6 times a year. Buying a full on unlimited access SC option might not be worth it to them, but a limited package would.

jstack6 said:

“He also said the base model 3 will have everything most people want and need.”

If he actually said that, it’s a rather odd comment. People generally want a heck of a lot more than they need, and want a lot more than they’re willing to pay for.

“I don’t know; I can imagine quite a bit!” — Han Solo

At the pace things appear to move now, reducing the incentive to 3K and instead applying it to 3.3 times the number of cars seems a sensible move. Electric cars will probably be production constrained for years at Tesla. If they prove to be for the Bolt as well (though Chevy claims that can’t happen, rather stupidly IMO), perhaps 7,5-10K of incentives is too high.

Glad I waited in line, here in California.

I want a Jaguar green for mine.
I dont like the trunk, too smallish, not practicle. I hope a hatchback suv version will be available in the near future.

That’s what the FRUNK is for!!!

I would hesitate to put my dogs in the frunk…

Put your Doggies in the back seat.. They will Love it !

British Racing Green! Lots of luck on that one…. L O L

++ re the trunk. It’s a complete dealbreaker for me. I’d been under the impression this was a sedan-profile hatchback like the S, not an actual sedan.
The Frunk doesn’t help — I can currently fit a bicycle inside my compact MPV without removing weels, or fit a one meter cubed cube.

Well, to be reasonable, the MPV is a truly “mini” van – it has SUV or CUV -like proportions. The Model 3 was billed from day 1 as a sedan, and that’s exactly what they built.

Now, why they didn’t make the 3 as useful as the S? No idea…might have something to do with the whole headroom vs. drag coefficient arguments.

Probably the Model Y (to come next) will suit your needs.

GM must feel pretty stupid for only committing to 30k Bolts per year when Tesla gets 6x as many orders for their car within 24 hours!

How many has Tesla committed to in a year?

For reference, GM has estimated Bolt sales at that level, they have not implied they will limit sales at 30k as your post infers.

GM hasn’t stated anything about annual sales goals….except that they wouldn’t be making any. The 30k per year number is a rumor based on U/I supplier talk.

All GM has officially stated is they could easily ramp up production to 60k units a year if the demand was there.

I’m thinking – if Tesla needs to recreate todays worldwide lithium battery production to manufacture 500k cars a year, how many can GM and LG produce with their production capacities?

With what they have and are building right now, maybe 60? If GM adds Samsung to it’s suppliers (if BMW doesn’t do some exclusive contracts first) maybe 120k?

Samsung and LG better start to build gigafactories of their own right now to have them ready in 2 to 3 years to be able to supply batteries for 500k cars too.

I don’t think GM has to worry about having enough lithium for that econobox. ?

They’ve said that they can produce “over 50 thousand” per year.

Tesla’s stated plan is to max out the Fremont factory and Gigafactory 1.

I’m glad to see the reservation numbers going up rapidly and GM should be too, because the bigger the pool of potential buyers, the more confidence they and LG should have in the Bolt and electrification.

I like the positive take on that – good point.

With Model 3, even 30K Bolts seem way too many.

No, quite the opposite. It’s suggesting that demand for electric cars is much larger that some might have thought and therefore there should be a lot of people interested in the Bolt, even with the feeble limitation of only being able to handle about 98-99% of trips.

Well said, sir.

If they are both as compelling as they appear, the Model ≡ and the Bolt will compete with each other far less than the both compete with gasmobiles.

Up the rEVolution!

“Up the rEVolution” I like that!
I remember a line similar way back:
“I Upped My Income, Up Yours!”

EV owners, especially Tesla owners could edit it to be:
“I Upped My Driving Pleasure, Up Yours! Drive a Tesla!”

As EV fans I notice we all like to call the Bolt, “Bolt”. But GM and Chevrolet make a point to call it, the “Bolt EV” – which makes sense since they decided to call it a very confusing name that rhymes with Volt. I try to remind everyone to say, “Bolt EV”, because once we’re in the habit of calling it “Bolt” it’s very confusing for the masses. Case in point: The amount of time I spend out and about varies greatly by day, as is the nature of what I do. When I spend more time in public, I find myself talking electric cars to just about anyone who will listen…Like the girl behind the counter at Starbucks or even the local market… I’m becoming known as, “that electric car guy”! Every single time I say, “have you heard of the Bolt?”, they’ll say, “Oh, yeah, the VOLT”, and have some opinion or comment regarding the EREV/PHEV. Naturally, we then look idiotic as we say, “no…B-olt with a B”. Seriously this happens every single day. Since you share the passion of electrified transportation with me, please take pause and write/say, “Bolt EV”, it’s on the side and rear… Read more »

I like the Bolt, and I will likely get one. You still won’t get me to put and EV after it. If GM didn’t want a confusing name they could have named is something different.

I went to a GM talk at the DC Auto Show a year ago and Pam and Pablo were talking about the Bolt and the Volt. During and after the talk, the journalists at the table I was at completely confused what the two cars were like because they were hearing Volt when the speaker was saying Bolt. It was funny in a sad sort of way.

What Ambulator said.

It’s not our responsibility to fix the confusion GM created.

Let the masses be confused, they are already unwashed.

I hear GM is planning another EV to be called the “Jolt”.

After this, they will simpy start making up names, like “Folt”, “Golt”, and “Zolt”.

The bolt is Half the car & and more money after it’s all said & done..The Model 3 is a N0 Brainer.(no offence). You can get out of that deal , I am sure, can’t you? …Good luck! I see No Problem there…

I am a Volt guy, but if the III arrives within 2 years I will be buying one. But I will be buying the base model (plus Supercharger option) and I live on the east coast so I may have a bit of a wait.

All right but for once I would say in defense of GM that at least they do something in ev. On the other hand Fiat is keeping Chrysler in deep freeze and Toyota still sell crap fool cell and ridiculous ev range Prius. When even Priusmaniac reserve a Tesla Model 3 they should wake up. Not to mention all the others that do nothing as well.
With the Model 3 it will now be join and copy or slowly disappear.

I wonder how the sales of the Mirai are doing this morning…

I wonder if the stop-sale has been lifted.

Have the engineers already figured out how to fill the tank more than halfway? LOL!

They are flying off the shelves I’ve heard…

…but oddly enough, the size of that shelf keeps shrinking… 😉

… right into the trash.

He he, the last thing people know about Hydrogen and Flying was a Blimp that Burned! (Admittedly, most don’t know that bright yellow flame as it burned was basically a TNT variant in the fabric doping used to seal the weave of the fabric, so it was basically a big bomb bag, filled with Hydrogen Gas!)

Also, the parts the Mirai is made from could be flying off the shelf due some quakes or tremors in Japan!

They should be starting to Quake now that they see the interest in the Model 3, and they will be having Tremors trying to explain to their bosses how they are going to get into the BEV Game so late now!

Thermite, actually, which is one of the main components used in the US Space Shuttle’s solid rocket boosters. Aluminum and Iron Oxide.

They were not present in the exact ratio on the Hindenburg, but the Mythbusters demonstrated that it was close enough, bathed in leaking hydrogen, to make the whole thing go up exactly as it did, in a little over 30 seconds…terrifyingly awesome.

Average selling price $42k… I wonder how much of that will be up-optioned cars versus a potential price increase prior to late 2017 when the 3 is available?

Time will tell!

The cynicism is strong in this one.

On the contrary, I’m trying to be realistic given Tesla’s track record.

I realize that, for many, Tesla can do no wrong. As a Tesla stockholder, I prefer to be a realist.

I do not recall Tesla reneging on price. The Model S got expensive quickly because the S40 turned out to be a dud (so they said). That put the “new” base price +$10k real fast.

As they made more features standard, then added new features, the price did creep up from there, long after launch, with substantially better value.

The prices creeped up again, but only because they added kWh to the packs and most people like AWD, particularly in that price range.

I’m not concerned at this point for the Model 3. I put my $1k down. Musk reported minimum 215 miles EPA, 0-60 < 6s, autopilot hardware (presumably including safety features and adaptive cruise control standard), and SC capable, all for $35k before incentives. They have been holding that price line all along, which has surprised me. I assume that they must intend to keep it that way.

I would pay even 50k+ if there is a model with a range of 280 – 300 miles

Right now it’s breathing hard…, but it’s coming… l o l … will be optional..

198,000 now. Where is the counter?

@elonmusk is tweeting the numbers out! We have now surpassed even Tesla’s greatest expectation!

There is still plenty of reasons to expect the Bolt to have very strong sales next year. I think the best reasons are actually due to the success of the Model 3 pre-orders. Due to the success of the pre-orders anyone that wants to buy a long range EV now can’t expect delivery of a Model 3 until 2019.

All of the hype of the Model has to have increased interest in electric vehicles in general. Many people are not going to want to wait until 2019 to receive a Model 3 when they drive to a local Chevrolet dealership and drive off in a Bolt. I wouldn’t be in the least surprised to to see Bolt sales to break six figures next year.

Take a look at the Bolt… and then take a look at Model 3.

Enough said.

Another reason why the Bolt should sell well is because the Model 3 and the Bolt are two very different vehicles. The Model 3 is a mid size sedan while the Bolt is a compact utility vehicle. Many people will choose the utility of the Bolt over the Model 3.

And another is price. Even though the entry level Model 3 is slightly less than the entry level Bolt, the entry level Model 3 probably won’t be available until 2019+. People who don’t really need a heavily optioned Model 3 but need a long range EV will purchase the lower priced Bolt.

The look of a vehicle is really not that important to most people. Function and value are what most people care about. The Model 3 with the single center multipurpose screen looks a little too fantasy, the Bolt looks a lot more functional.

The only real problem I have with the Model 3 is same problem I have with all the Tesla vehicles, they are all couple to a proprietary charging network.

Tesla cars can charge off standard J1772 and CHAdeMO, with adapters. I think the J1772 is included ($95 to replace), while the CHAdeMO is $450.

The problem is not that Tesla vehicles can’t use other charging system. The problem is that Tesla owns a very expensive charging network that has to be paid for by Tesla owners whether they use it or not and can only change Tesla vehicles.

How is any of that rant, actually a problem?

As the Model III infuses more money and interest in Tesla than ever before, the need for other EV automakers to get over their corporate egos to maintain marketshare, may force them to join the SuperCharger Network, regardless. It would save them much money and time, as it’s ALREADY an elegant, viable global Ultrafast DCFC solution. All they have to do, is make cars that can handle it, and pay for its use. That’s it. Nothing more complex than that.

Tesla having their own superior Charging System is not a negative. They saw a global need– and fixed it. The SuperCharger Newtork is in fact, a significant business asset. The massive number of Model III reservations alone, confirms this.

Basic economics would suggest that Tesla simply can’t continue to pay for the supercharger infrastructure and energy and still make a profit.

They will be a victim of their own success.

The cars will have supercharging enabled (vs. paying $2,000). That does not mean every charge will be free.

I don’t believe the network, itself, is that expensive, either. ~200 million, relative to, say, VW’s ~20,000 million for diesel-gate, is one perspective.

Many SC sites will have solar canopies, so that will help, as well.

Agreed, Anon! I assume that the remaining automakers are waiting for 3rd parties to do something. Of course, that is less efficient, since they would have to coordinate, or otherwise be compatible.

Tesla has a brilliant, superior and elegant solution, and it’s already global. Can’t beat that until better energy storage tech comes along to make charging en-route superfluous.

The general plan will be to lease a Bolt for 2-3 years while waiting for the Model 3. The dealer gets the tax credit, but can pass the savings to the buyer making it very cheap to lease. You can then opt to buy the Bolt at the end or the Model 3.

Texas FFE said:

“I wouldn’t be in the least surprised to to see Bolt sales to break six figures next year.”

You do realize, don’t you, that GM is dependent both on LG Electronics for the EV powertrain and on LG Chem for the battery cells?

GM may have said they could ramp up to “over 50,000” Bolts if they wanted to, but it seems very unlikely indeed that they could ramp up to 100k or more that quickly. As I understand it, LG Chem contracts at least two years in advance for large quantity battery supply. Unicorns are not going to magically create more battery cells out of rainbows to supply GM.

And has been pointed out ad nauseam, Texas FFE, GM has a strong disincentive to make and sell the Bolt in large numbers. Translation: They won’t. Period.

From my understanding this above is correct.

It is strange to mention 198,000. It is so close 200,000. He should have waited a few minutes more. Why didn’t he?

Perhaps because the guy who’s micromanaging both Tesla Motors and SpaceX, as well as being on the Board of Directors for SolarCity, not to mention having a wife and kids, doesn’t have a few minutes to spare… ever.

Unfortunately, it’s déjà vu all over again. About 10 days ago Elon’s second wife filed for divorce after living separately from Elon the past six months. The pair first married in 2010 and divorced in 2012. They re-married 18 months later. C’est la vie. 🙁

I’m sad to learn that. But thanks for the update, sven.

Maybe he just wanted to go to sleep.

Because is moving too fast to bother.

I never thought that I will generate so much talk by just typing in a couple of sentences here and there at insideevs!

The only option I plan to get is 4WD

It’s called counting your chickens before they hatch.

These chickens are wrapped in up with $1000 each.

The top 3 luxury car makers in US sales were all about 340,000 units each in 2015 (BMW, Lexus, Mercedes-Benz).

Today (as opposed to a couple days ago) it looks like Tesla could “soon” be selling (and hopefully producing) 500,000 cars per year.

If you are BMW and Mercedes, do today’s activities involve emergency board meetings and shltting lithium ion shaped bricks?

I am laughing so hard at your last sentence that I almost peed myself!!!!


The Tesla’s 500,000 sales figure would be for global sales. For comparison, Lexus’ global sales for 2015 were 652,000 vehicles with a full model lineup.;-aims-higher-in-2016

All right. I have to admit mixing sales parameters for maximum “punchline effect”. But I would also have to admit that the 500,000 number just comes from what I think was mentioned as the maximum capacity of the Fremont (NUMMI) factory.

With Tesla working on manufacturing plans for Europe and China …. who’s to say what the upper limit could eventually be … again, all against the backdrop of 200,000 (global) orders in one day?

Every major automaker should be reevaluating their future plans. This is a wakeup call for them all. Elon has given them 2 or 3 years to respond.

But the super charger network is just so compeling. How could anyone compete with that?

Building superchargers is extremely straightforward, and relatively inexpensive. It is not a sustainable advantage.

As true as that is, the other mfrs are not ALL IN as Tesla is. They have their highly profitable ICE sales to protect. So no matter how easy it would be for them, it’s not going to happen.

+1 Why would other manufacturers do a network, when they have parts franchises and dealers who will be angry to see service volumes go down?

You aren’t seeing the whole cost structure. From a consumer perspective, many are starting to get it.


Anything that you purchase and never or seldom use and can’t sell is expensive.

Like insurance?

I’d say the major OEM’s are already “supercharger prepped”. They’ve got loads of prime real estate spread out across the country already (dealerships). I would think in a few short months any one of the majors could have a charging system that’s better than Tesla’s. But, of course, the dealerships make their money servicing ICE vehicles. They’re going to be less than happy about being part of any supercharger network.

Particularly if they would be expected to make it free, like Tesla, leaving the dealerships to pick up the tab for maintenance and repairs.

carcus said:

“I’d say the major OEM’s are already ‘supercharger prepped’. They’ve got loads of prime real estate spread out across the country already (dealerships).”

Nope. Superchargers need to be located along major highways in between cities. Dealerships are located, for the most part, in cities… and often not near any major highways. Most of them are poor locations for Superchargers. And most Dealership lots have a barred entryway at night, to prevent theft, which is another reason that any EV charger there won’t benefit the long distance traveler.

You must not get out much.

Apparently you have not planned long distance road trips that include CHAdeMO’s at dealerships. Most are not open after business hours as they don’t want you there when they aren’t there. Plus, you never know if the dealership has blocked off the charger.

Besides, would you want to hang out at a restaurant/mall or a dealership for up to half an hour?

The car dealership where I currently go:

1. Is right off of the interstate
2. The service waiting area has
— an eating area
— snack machines
— Couches
— Television
— a couple of computer terminals/ workspace
— and a FREE STARBUCK’s machine (woohoo!)
3.. Access and after hours access could easily be handled (special “charge card” gets you through the gate, into the waiting area etc…)

I’m sure they could set up “premium waiting” (for a charge) just like the airlines do, I’ll bet people would pay for it.

Pull up google maps and type in car dealership. Look at all those locations. Any auto manufacturer could have their own very useful very expansive charging network set up in short order.

Just because the charging scenario at the dealerships have now is mostly crap, .. that doesn’t have any bearing on what they could have.

Tesla is out in front with their charge network now, but I still contend that any of the majors could catch up in 12 months.

They “can” but they won’t. That’s the issue. They are clearly waiting for 3rd party charging outfits to solve their problems, and it’s not working very well so far – mediocre charge rates, massive frankenplugs, different pay plans and means by which to pay, etc.

Compared to Tesla’s SC network, everyone else is a sad joke.

Really disagree: if I’m on a trip where I need a fast charge, the last place I’d want to hang out is a car dealership parking lot in some suburban sprawl with no amenities to walk to. That goes x10 if my kids are with me.

Put the fast chargers at family friendly restaurants near the highways however, and it’s a very different story.

Starbucks w/60 kW DC Fast Chargers on or near the Interstate. That is my dream set up. And I hate their coffee.
Maybe in a couple years the charge rate will go up to 80 or 100 kW. But 60 is fine for now. About a half hour of charging will get you 2 hours of driving, or close to it.


They should just swallow their pride and license the supercharger network.

Btw, I wonder what putin and the oil sheiks think of the Model 3.

Agreed – with 200+ mile EPA EVs, it’s the cost-effective solution. Tesla isn’t asking for much (if anything at all) for their patented technologies, and everything is already set. Tesla engineers would probably help the other OEMs integrate the SC necessities into their systems. The initial cost to the other OEMs would be nothing compared to the patchwork cluster—k that exists now – different standards, massive frankenplugs, different pay systems, etc.

That line is great!

Lol! Indeed! None of those companies has anything to compete with the Model 3. Tesla just stole a bunch of their sales from tnext few years.

Had to use the restroom?

Good one, I might add that the serial Tesla haters/shorters are probably doing the same!

I guess there is some truth behind the saying “If you build it, they will come”.


I think that the 200,000 reservations have reversed that saying.

We are coming, now build it!

Good point!

Elon is definitely counting Tesla’s chickens before they’re hatched.

I suppose it’s nitpicking to point out that Elon’s “~$7.5B” contains a logical fallacy; that figure assumes every reservation will be converted into an actual order and payment.

That ignores the cancellation rate, which is… what, about 25% on the Model S? We could assume the cancellation rate will be lower for the Model ≡ as it’s a lower priced car, but still…

However, the reason I say it’s nitpicking is because Tesla will certainly continue to get new reservations faster than old ones are cancelled… just as they have with the Model S and X.

Go Tesla!

…and happy Day After Model ≡ day to all! 🙂

The doctors just told BMW the i3 only has a year left to live 🙂

I think most of the 80-100 milers are already dead….

Yes, and I find it odd that InsideEVs articles keep asking why Leaf sales have remained low this year — at least, sales in the USA — despite Nissan upping the range. I’d think the answer is painfully obvious. Upping the range from ~80 miles to ~107 miles just doesn’t cut it when nearly every potential EV buyer knows that 200+ mile BEVs are coming, and coming fairly soon.

Ha,ha, good one.

Dead car rolling!

[YAWNING] Is Tesla a cult? The Model 3 will likely be late, cost more than $35K before incentives with even one option, remain ugly, and be unreliable just like the Model S. Remember, free towing to a Tesla repair facility several hundred miles away for many people is no longer guaranteed. The front end seems messed up even for an EV, and the rear end is chopped off.

And you are forgetting that fool cell are so much better…but only for oil industries. Period.

Of cause it is. Classic pump and dump.

Any car you can claim to be “better” in any respect, millions of other people will disagree with you. You oil cultists are not God’s right hand on Earth, no matter what Ted Cruz says.

“cost more than $35K before incentives with even one option”

Yes of course, that is what an option is – something you pay extra for. Since the base price is $35k, anything extra will be more than $35k.

MMMgood trolled asked:

“Is Tesla a cult?”

Sure. Just like motorcars are only a passing fad. Everyone will go back to horses in a year or two.

Your right. Everyone listen to this guy. Model 3 is a piece of shit and is completely undesirable. Cancel your reservations (especially if you’re ahead of me in line). 😉

AhahaahA! 😀


Lol! I assume it will be delayed and cost more and I am still hugely excited. I LOVE the anti-grille nose that dispenses with such archaic nonesense.

Looks like one of the already discredited haters/shorter so are at it again posting under a new screen name.

Amazingly lame desperation as Model 3 reservation soar past 200,000 in less then 24 hours.

With numbers this high, has the virtually the entire car industry grinded to a halt in anticipation of the Model 3?

I think a lot of gasser CEOs are speechless…

Adapt or DIE

I sooo want to hear about Emergency Monday Morning Meetings at all the major ICE Automakers. 😀

Brett asked:

“With numbers this high, has the virtually the entire car industry grinded to a halt in anticipation of the Model 3?”

Unlikely. Nor do I think the major legacy auto makers are holding emergency board meetings on the subject of Tesla’s Model ≡ reservations.

Let’s put this into perspective: Yes, 200,000 reservations in only ~48 hours, at $1000 per reservation, is a truly astounding number, and I think it’s the first real indication that BEVs are beginning to move from a niche product into the mainstream. But last year, there were ~90 million automobiles sold worldwide. 200,000 would be 0.22% of that number. Twice that number — and at this point I can easily believe reservations might reach that many, or even a bit more — would still be less than 1/2 of 1%.

Beginning to move into the mainstream. Not there yet.

With that $42k figure, I’m wondering what kind of options will be offered at that price. I’m guessing that more range is near the top of that list. How far could a Model 3 go with a 90kW battery? Probably over 300 miles.

Now it’s getting intriguing. How much extra will it be to upgrade to the largest battery? If $42k can get you a 300+ mile EV, that might be the biggest game changer of all.

air suspension
premium sound speakers
premium leather
winter package
larger battery
0-60 in less than 5 sec (requires bigger battery)
So basically like the Model S

And, I would say that some of those things would be the same cost – both cars have the same number of rear seats, steering wheel, windshield wipers and spray nozzles, so the winter packages would have to be essentially identical, putting that upgrade at $1k, like the Model S.

The rims are smaller, so the performance rim and tire upgrade would probably not be the $4.5k that it is for the S.

Dual motors…though the front motor might not be exactly like the front motor in the S in terms of power and such, but still, the complexity is the same, the same algorithms will be needed (with different values and sensor inputs) for control of drive, regen, traction control, etc. For the Model S, that’s $5k. For the 3, I’d say it would be the same…possibly $4k if the front motor and associated power electronics are less beefy than the S.

Etc., etc., etc.

We will find out eventually, of course, but there will be a “part 2” to the reveal, once they figure out everything they haven’t finalized yet…

As much I understand the no dashboard choice (because full autonomous drive is coming), i figure out something like a HUD for practical driving like a simple one in the low end Tesla version (with only five functions: range, speed, electric gauge, autopilot on/off alert and different warnings). In the high end version I would like to see a HUD with additional functions like direction pointers for navigation system, night vision and some other stuff.
Other options could be AWD, medium autonomous system (like the actual one) or full autonomous enable, performance, range, HETA filter (for Chinese market), full lifetime supercharging, etc.

I think it has more to do with cost savings. Nothing on the dash except an inexpensive 15″ touchscreen and a few air vents. That eliminates a lot of knobs, dials, switches, wires, gauges, indicators, etc.

And the really nice thing…they already have the software for it pretty much done since they just need to tweak the software from the Model S & X.

But there is no demand for electric cars:
Mercedes, VW, GM, BMW, and others. We are building what consumers want.

Apparently many consumers don’t want your ice cars as much as you think, and wish to obtain a vehicle you say is not in demand.

Instead of placing a pre-order on a Model 3 I bought a walk behind self propelled electric lawnmower. This lawnmower is awesome, it’s quiet, it’s very light, it instantly turns on and off, you never have buy gas for it or change the oil and you can flip it on its end for storage or blade sharpening without having to worry about spilling fluids or flooding the engine. The point is that modern electric powered vehicles and equipment are so much better than ICE powered stuff in so many ways.

I’m sure you have heard that the best way to sell an EV is to let someone drive one for a while. With the success of Model 3 pre-order there are going to be a lot more EVs on the road and a lot more people wanting to test drive EVs. Sales of EVs are growing exponentially, we have an EV bug contagion on our hands!

Hear, hear!

Speaking of Electric Lawn Mowers, I bought this:

Used it twice, love it. It’s fun and I’m no longer poisoning myself (or anyone else) just to keep the yard looking great.

Just be careful. Hitting anything solid has the potential to warp the motor shaft, since the blades are directly attached. Work tall stuff down, ’cause if you jam it up with grass, you’ll likely need to replace the motor.

This is why I would love Tesla to design their own brand of Electric Mowers. They’d use a small single gear tranny to take the strain off the shaft, which would preserve the motor in accidental ‘overload’ situations.

I think you’ll be happy with your purchase over the long term.
I bought a greenworks 40v a little under 3 years ago (2.5 seasons so far) and just mowed for the first time this season. Charged the batteries, slapped it in and off I went.

Like any li batteries, I don’t want to run them down all the way. I keep 2 batteries and swap them out about 1/2 way through so I don’t run them down all the way. In the spring and fall, I charge the batteries in the garage but when summer hits I move the chargers indoors so I charge the batteries in a cooler temp.

True. Due to improved batteries we can now begin the transition away from gas fueled engines.

Well, I’m eating my words. A couple days ago I didn’t think there was anything like this level of demand, and I commented on an earlier post saying I expected 10,000 reservations in 24 hours. When you’re wrong, you’re wrong. And I’m happy to be wrong here.

Most of us are! I think I guessed about 60k. Generally speaking, though, when the article came out with estimates of 80k to 100k, most of us responded with, “80k to 100k reservations worldwide in the first 24hrs??? What are these analysts smoking?!?”

Well, apparently not the really good stuff, since they were off by a factor of 2 (and me, a factor of 3).

I posted an estimation of no more than 40,000 in the first 24 hours… and then after I calmed down a bit, I kicked myself mentally for posting such an “unrealistic” high number.

Talk about being wrong! But like you, I’m quite happy to be very mistaken about that! 😀

I was at 30K in 48hrs and 100K by end of month. I wasn’t even close and am thrilled Tesla is receiving this level of support from people.

I said 15k to 30k in the first 24 hours after the reveal.

There were 115 before the reveal. Talk about being wrong!

I have to go dig up my first post on this forum from early March where I predicted the numbers we’re seeing now. I think I nailed it. Is there a prize? Do I get a hat or something?

A few things that are interesting:

1). I usually buy cars with zero options if available. What exactly do you get?

2). Assuming the $7500 credit will be in the process of phasing out, what will be the zero options price range?

3). SC is enabled, so what will be the charge per use?

1) you get a very nice car for $35k. Options will be tempting, but also completely unnecessary.

2) assume the $7500 tax credit is completely phased out. The price will be $35k. I tax credits are left, consider it an unexpected bonus.

3) Elon said the supercharging is INCLUDED for your $35k, not just the supercharger hardware.


3. He actually doesn’t say anything about “free supercharging”. Just hardware. That’s all he’s committed to, just like the Autopilot hardware doesn’t come with “Autopilot”.

IMO this number of model 3 ordered (quarter of a million in 2 days) is really a milestone for the car electrification process as it sends a clear message to the entire car manufacturing industry. Message is: a long range good looking EV with a moderate price tag has same chances of success than an ICE car. The other car makers have no other option but to take note and follow. At least I hope they will. Now they can still have legitimate doubts whether there are profits to make right now doing so or if a few more years are still needed to see electric car components prices go down. Anyway it seems to exist a consensus among the industry that 2018 would be something like year 0 for the start of real mass production of EV’s.


I created a spreadsheet to estimate the Federal tax credit that one might received for the Tesla Model 3. My apologies if someone has already done so or has done a better job of it. It is available here:

Thanks Mike.
I was thinking about this earlier. I’m hoping Tesla has already worked through the timing and have formulated a plan/strategy to limit model S & X sales for the purpose of maximizing the number of model 3 customers who can qualify for the full $7,500 tax credit.
I think the number of model 3 customers who can qualify for the full $7,500 will directly translate into percent of reservation conversions and amount of options purchased.

You are most welcome and I agree with you on all counts. A $7.5K credit on a $100K car is not much compared to $7.5K credit on a $35K to $42K car. I’d like an editor as well. “one might received” should be “one might receive”.

I received my reservation email but it doesn’t have a reservation number on it. It looks like you know your reservation number. How did you find out what the reservation number is?

I should clarify, my reservation number is on “MyTesla” But the number (109 million) can’t reflect order or at least I hope not 🙂

I found an error and have updated the spreadsheet. I was too much in a hurry to get the initial spreadsheet out.

So…………Anyone heard from Bob Lutz????

Surely he must have a comment to share about Tesla???

No, but Elon mentioned him, in a good way, during his talk. Apparently what the old line car companies don’t seem to get is how much they are looked upon as the purveyors of lies, in the form overly expensive, poorly engineered, and backward looking technologies to power our vehicles, that they foist upon a limited choice, suspicious consumer. GM, Ford,Toyota, BMW, etc… will tell you what is right and what can be done and how to do it, since they are the experts. Tesla is just putting a lie to those companies entire belief system. A systems of beliefs they spread in regards to vehicular transportation. Diesels are clean, battery tech is not developed enough, range is too low, and the latest form of attack the vehicles are not reliable. You all know the drill. Can we believe anything they say? What Tesla is offering an alternative vision that is fast moving, innovative, and in the moment. All things the legacy manufacturers are not. Instead those manufacturers rely on an antiquated business model based on monopolistic practices, advertising and lobbying. Their slow moving bureaucracies, adverse to change, and frightened of making mistakes, can’t keep pace with a rapidly changing… Read more »

Totally agree ffbj, I would add the newest FUD that even Mary Barra repeated at the Bolt intro that the stealership model of business is an advantage!!!

Give me a break, if I never had to step into another stealership in my life to deal with their slimy negotiation con jobs (and I always have negotiated excellent deals on my auto purchases in the past) I would be eternally grateful.

If you still negotiate with slippery car salesmen you are doing something wrong. There are plenty of Internet sites that give you total price transparency and let you buy cars in a quick and painless transaction. You can also use them to let dealerships compete for your business if you want to.

On the Model S and X, Tesla has significantly higher margins than the big car manufacturers including the dealer markup.

At the end of the day, Tesla will have to have something similar to the dealership model if they want to become a true mass market brand. Their current model doesn’t scale well, neither for sales nor for servicing.

Rant police waves ffbj right on through, right on through…


I wouldn’t put Tesla on too high a pedestal. “691HP” gained a lot of customers, before they published the actual dyno stat of 463HP about a year later, for the P85D. They then took it down and stopped reporting HP all together. This isn’t an entirely forthright company, and new buyers thinking they’re going to get unlimited watts for $35,000 is just another example. Be careful how you interpret Elon, when he says things like “motor power” and doesn’t tell you about battery limits.

I agree that it was confusing for a while. However, the website has been reporting the proper hp numbers for at least the last several months (actual combined hp, not nominal motor hp).

Great success for Elon and his Tesla.The BMW Managers of I3 are feeling probably really bad when they hear the numbers of M3 reservations. Same for Nissan and GM (they wanted to produce 30Tsd Bolts/y)

Renault could produce 30.000 Zoe this year, Nissan were already at 60.000 Leaf. Why demand should not increase next to years to let say 80.000 Zoe and 150.000 Leaf when Zoe get 44 kWh for half price of Model 3 and Leaf let say 5-7k $ dollar cheaper with also range increasing. Friend was working for Nissan Z.E. and he says he also no exactly but for 2017 there are some updates planned to around 250 miles (European Cycle).

how many model 3 reservations now?

In the voice of the imortal Carl Sagan, “Billions, in new car revenue. Every dollar leveraging a paradigm shift, to sustainable transport– ensuring that our Pale Blue Dot, survives.”

Beside to the success and hype Tesla biggest task will be quality of mass market car. If they delivers 500000 Model 3 with quality issues like S or X than short time later they go bankrupt after changing drive units or fixing rattling noises. I don’t get why so many complains in TeslaMotorsClub board and only some X are on the street. So Musk, don’t rush, deliver quality!

I would want – Dual Motor(AWD) – 5000, All glass roof – 2500, Smart air suspension – 2000, winter package – 1500, winter tires on rims – 1000, Upgraded Battery – 10,000
As a Canadian I would be paying
43,000(35000USD equavalent) + the above
= 65K minus 14,500 Ontario EV rebate
= approximately 50K for the car

If things like smart air suspension will be an option.

Also, the winter package (at least in the USA) for Model S is only $1k USD. I don’t see why that would go up for the 3 – they both have the same number of side mirrors, windshield washers, nozzles and rear seats.

It will be interesting to see what the base roof and roof options will be.

I doubt that the higher pack would be 20kWh more, like the S70 vs. S90, in order to gain similar improvements in range and performance. I’m thinking maybe 55kWh and 65kWh, which would make the upgrade maybe only $7k or $8k instead of the $13k it is now for the Model S.

If the base rims are cool, then I’d be looking at:
~autopilot = $2.5k
~dual-motor = $4k (not $5k, since maybe motor and electronics not as beefy as Model S)
~winter = $1k
~paint (blue) = $1k
~sound upgrade = $1.5k (might not be as many speakers as Model S upgrade of $2.5k)

I figure a guesstimate of 35+2.5+4+1+1+1.5 = $45k is a reasonable expectation.


let’s ‘put past’ the Toyota paradigm of five colors to ‘hold costs down’.

Offer me colors as a profit column for you and – take my money!

Hopefully, Tesla will – other automakers provide a variety of paint options for their lower-priced models, including a few bright colors, as opposed to all the muted silver, blue, green, red, etc., that higher models seem to stick to these days.