Elon Musk: First 12 Months Of Tesla Model 3 Production Is Sold Out

1 year ago by Eric Loveday 99

Elon Musk Tweets In Response To Fortune's Misleading Article On The Tesla Model 3

Elon Musk Tweets In Response To Fortune’s Misleading Article On The Tesla Model 3

Tesla CEO Elon Musk took to Twitter to clarify a situation that arose following a misleading article on the upcoming Tesla Model 3.

According to multiple reports yesterday (which we won’t link to because they are all inaccurate), Model 3 production was “pushed back” until 2018. That’s not the case at all, but rather any order being placed today and into the future won’t be filled until 2018. That’s because, according to Tesla CEO Elon Musk, there are enough pre-orders for the Model 3 to keep Tesla busy for all of 2017 (and likely most of 2018 as well).

If you check Tesla’s website (screengrab below) for ordering the Model 3, you’ll see the following:

“Production begins mid 2017”

“Delivery estimate for new reservations is mid 2018 or later”

Model 3 Ordering Page

Model 3 Ordering Page

So, if you’re hoping to get a Model 3 anytime soon, then your order should’ve been placed long ago. Any orders placed today likely won’t even enter production until very near to the end of 2018.

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99 responses to "Elon Musk: First 12 Months Of Tesla Model 3 Production Is Sold Out"

  1. Mark says:

    If you arent in the USA, I think I’d bet on 2019 for new reservations now.

    1. sven says:

      Not if Tesla follows the Model X reservation protocol that allowed people to walk in off the street and cut the line after production started if they ordered the more expensive (P performance models, the biggest batteries, and certain options ie: air suspension, 6 or 7 seats) to the chagrin for people who placed money down with their reservations years before production began. If you live in California and are willing to purchase a performance and fully loaded Model 3, Tesla will probably let you walk in of the street and cut the line ahead of people in the rest of the country. Getting a job at Tesla in California might get you a Model 3 even faster than California residents who put down a deposit on the first day of reservation.

      1. Pueblo says:

        It’s not really cutting in line. Tesla needs to build cars with the highest return of investment first. It also doesn’t make sense to have the production line set up to make cars with 10 different configurations when things are barely getting underway and they have bugs to work out. At least bugs are easier to keep track of when only one configuration is being built and they can focus on it without any distractions. Also, Tesla wasn’t really giving out reservations for cars, what you’re really reserving is a spot in line to configure your car. Early reservation holders will be given the opportunity to configure and order their car before others who reserved later. Whether your car makes it to production right away or not isn’t something Tesla ever promised. And yes, California Tesla employees who configure fully loaded cars will get theirs first, but those cars will likely have the most bugs too.

      2. Tom says:

        They have said priority line placement is given to owners of their other vehicles such as Model S. So you can buy an S while waiting and it puts you ahead of non-Teslas purchasers. An interesting marketing ploy to avoid supression of current offerings.

  2. Jean says:

    First 12 Months ARE sold out

    1. mx says:

      Wall Street does their BEST at helping Shorts Attack the Company.

      Are they that stupid? Or, are they paid to be that stupid.

      1. zzzzzzzzzz says:

        How stupid. Wallstreet pumps Tesla shares and sells them for hefty commission, helping Musk to stay afloat. Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley are major underwriters. Tesla would not exist as it is without Wallstreet pumping and it will not have money for Model 3 mass scale production without further Wallstreet pump&dump team help.

        It seems that GS has had enough of this pyramid now as they changed so called analyst who upgraded stock just hours before last secondary share sale. And the new one downgraded stock below market price. But Wallstreet may have plenty of other players willing to pump whatever for good commission.

        https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-10-06/goldman-downgrades-tesla-months-after-underwriting-share-sale

        1. Nix says:

          The large majority of shares in TSLA are owned by institutional investors, and institutional investors continue to buy up more shares.

          So no, they aren’t pumping and dumping. They are accumulating and holding.

          But don’t let little things like facts get in the way of your trolling…..

        2. floydboy says:

          Your handle is most appropriate! ?

        3. ffbj says:

          It sort of pokes holes in your argument when one of their, claimed by you, big backers, downgrades the stock, to a hold from outperform.
          Stick to whatever you do for a pay check, don’t bother with stocks unless you index. To paraphrase a proverb: ‘It’s better for people to think you a fool than to invest in individual stocks, and remove all doubt.’

      2. Pushmi-Pullyu says:

        mx asked:

        “Are they that stupid? Or, are they paid to be that stupid.”

        Hard to say. Ordinarily I’d quote Robert J. Hanlon, and say “Never attribute to malice that which is adequately explained by stupidity.”

        But Fortune has run both pro- and anti-Tesla articles. So it wouldn’t surprise me if this misinformation was actually disinformation, and part of the ongoing attempt by Tesla short-sellers, Big Oil shills, and the Hard Right propaganda machine to discredit Tesla Motors.

        Elon Musk has said that at times, Tesla’s stock is the most shorted stock. That’s an incredible amount of “short” interest, and motivation.

  3. ffbj says:

    This will probably help Bolt sales, if you don’t have a Model 3 reserved, since you are not getting one for a long time.

    1. MikeM says:

      Yup!
      I’m seriously considering a Bolt lease while waiting for my M3.

  4. William says:

    Model 3, with no options (bare bones) will be supply constrrained into 2019 when ordered in the last quarter of 2018. Probably for more than a few months at least. That is one heck of a backlog right now!

  5. Jack22332 says:

    Reservations mean sold?

    1. HVACman says:

      My thoughts exactly. A refundable “Reservation” is not a signed purchase contract. To say “sold out” is being very flexible with the truth.

      And even if the 300+K in reservations were all actual sales, Elon is being wildly unrealistic suggesting that Tesla could produce over 300,000 Model 3’s in the 1st 12 months of production.

      1. Fred Gibutr says:

        Tesla math is different from regular math. A refundable reservation is worth almost nothing.

        1. Tom says:

          It would seem that is factored in. Since they aren’t going to start producing (in best case scenario) until later in 2017 then at best they’d produce 50,000 by mid 2018 so when they say they have 400,000 reservations and new reservations are for delivery mid 2018 or later, they are assuming a large fraction of the reservations will back out since they are refundable.

          1. Rick Danger says:

            Exactly Tom. Your post shows the difference between reasonable people and Tesla haters. Thanks.

            1. zzzzzzzzzz says:

              Blasphemy. Saint Elon promised 500,000/year rate by the end of 2017, you must believe him!

              1. floydboy says:

                Well, hyperbolic nonsense aside, he IS going to push for some pretty big numbers right away. We’ll see what he can pull off.?

                1. ffbj says:

                  He needs to start building a stash for Mars. Colonizing Mars (next to impossible) ain’t cheap. Oddly Nicola Tesla also was obsessed with Mars. He thought he was in communication with Martians.

        2. Scott Franco says:

          They could do what GM did, they called me and told me “we are cashing your check now”, for the future Bolt. That means you are not getting a refund if we are building a car for you.

          1. Josh Bryant says:

            Tesla does do that, but it is once you configure you vehicle.

            Did you configure your Bolt when you placed the refundable deposit?

            Either way, both companies are probably making it non-refundable once your VIN goes to production. GM just waits until much closer to production to take deposits (since they really don’t need to cash to develop production).

            1. Scott Franco says:

              I think you described it. They didn’t cash the check until I configured it.

              Tesla actually took the money immediately, and is using that as a bridge loan, and I am good with that. I would have been fine with GM doing that. I had and have no intention of backing out.

      2. Pushmi-Pullyu says:

        HVACman said:

        “To say ‘sold out’ is being very flexible with the truth.

        “And even if the 300+K in reservations were all actual sales, Elon is being wildly unrealistic suggesting that Tesla could produce over 300,000 Model 3ā€™s in the 1st 12 months of production.”

        I guess you have not thought it through, HVACman. Your second statement is correct, and that’s why your first statement is incorrect.

        I guess Elon could have said “Well, we have an amazing number of reservations for the Model ā‰”, and based on our experience with converting reservations to orders, we can confidently predict that when the time comes to convert reservations to orders, the entire first year’s production will be sold out… and then some.”

        But when talking, people don’t usually get down into the granular detail of explaining just why they have concluded the things they assert regarding future events. Just saying “the first 12 months of production are sold out” isn’t a falsehood, nor even a half-truth. Now, you can rightly say that it contains an assumption, an unstated premise, but everybody including you and I often make assertions that contain unstated assumptions. In fact, I’d say that most things people assert on an everyday basis contain unstated assumptions.

        There’s a folk saying, appending “…God willing, and the creek don’t rise”, which people in certain parts of the U.S. used to occasionally append to statements about what they intended to do in the near future. Elon could have appended something similar to his statement; he could have qualified it to make it explicit that this was a confident prediction, rather than a statement of fact.

        That he didn’t, doesn’t mean that he was being less than fully truthful.

        Now, I’m going post this comment to the discussion, God willing and the creek don’t rise. šŸ˜‰

      3. Koenigsegg says:

        They are all sold. People that put down a reservation will buy it. Its a Tesla. Model 3. The mass market game changer

      4. TomArt says:

        Those reservations are global. They will start delivering recent orders in the US before some foreign reservation holders get to reserve and receive deliveries.

    2. Trollnonymous says:

      Even if the 300K returns only 35% sales (I’m low ballin it here….), do you really think they can spit that many out in one year?

      I sure as hell don’t.

      1. NN99 says:

        They are already capable of 2,000 cars per week.
        Thats 104,000 cars per year. And they haven’t got up to full speed yet.

        I searched insideevs didn’t find an article.

        https://electrek.co/2016/06/13/tesla-production-rate-2000-cars-week/

    3. Fred Gibutr says:

      Reservations mean nothing since they are non-binding.

      1. floydboy says:

        Reservations mean SOMETHING, as they are a fairly valid gauge of interest!

      2. Pushmi-Pullyu says:

        Model ā‰” reservations mean quite a bit, since the reservation holder has to put down $1000 apiece to reserve a place in line! That’s definitely “putting your money where your mouth is”.

        Now, that’s not to say that no reservations will be cancelled. It was claimed, a few years back, that about 25% of Model S reservations are canceled. But whatever the cancellation rate is, I think by now that Tesla can estimate it pretty well.

  6. David Murray says:

    So, buy a Volt or Bolt EV in the meantime..

    1. Kdawg says:

      Or a 2 year lease. Let’s hope the lease offerings are attractive.

      1. SparkEV says:

        You need 3 year lease to get CA rebate.

        1. Kdawg says:

          Some of us don’t live in CA.

          1. Josh Bryant says:

            In Texas we pay full sales tax on MSRP at time of lease, and sales tax again on residual at the buyout. It makes the 2 year lease deals too painful to consider.

            I know California you only pay sales tax on the MSRP – residual. If we had those rules, I would lease a new EV every 2 years just to try them all out.

            What are the rules in Michigan?

    2. Larry says:

      One factor in my decision. A Volt in the hand is worth two M3’s (or Bolts) in the bush.

      1. philip d says:

        Those must have been Performance Model 3s if they ended up in the bushes.

      2. Scott Franco says:

        Keep your hand out of your bush, please, this is a family web site.

    3. Koenigsegg says:

      Volt, no dolt

  7. Cavaron says:

    Pah, this is nothing. In communist East Germany your parents ordered a Trabant Car at your birth, because it had a 20 year waiting list!

    1. Scott Franco says:

      Probably even odds if the kid or the car had a longer life expectancy.

      1. Hauer says:

        Wrong, pls check your facts re health system in GDR.

    2. Nix says:

      That explains why I still haven’t gotten my Trabant NT electric car reservation yet…

    3. SparkEV says:

      LOL! Stossel loves to pick on Trabant.

  8. Kdawg says:

    Ok, now tweet us what the “unexpected product” is.

    1. philip d says:

      11:59 pm Pacific Time.

      1. Kdawg says:

        Thanks. Didn’t know there was an official time.

        1. Kdawg says:

          Or is this a joke about the stock market…

          1. Teslaftw says:

            Elon tweeted that announcement will be at 5 PM California time.

      2. Kdawg says:

        5pm PT

  9. Four Electrics says:

    Does this mean that there is no federal tax credit for new 3 reservations? That gives the Bolt a $5K price advantage.

    1. Nix says:

      That will depend on two factors:

      1) How much of a markup GM dealerships put on the Bolt, the same way they put additional markups on the Volt when it first came out. Some dealerships tried to put $5,000 to $20,000 dollar “Market Adjustments” on top of MSRP.

      2) Whether one party gains power, who has put in their official budget proposal that they would immediately eliminate all consumer incentives for solar, wind, and electric vehicles.

    2. jelloslug says:

      GM will be hitting that 200k tax credit wall about the same time Tesla will.

      1. Four Electrics says:

        Looks like GM has 100K to go: http://www.greencarreports.com/news/1085549_when-do-electric-car-tax-credits-expire

        So yes, Tesla’s credits will expire before existing the preorders are all fulfilled, but GM has some room.

        1. pjwood1 says:

          GM’s done well, strategically, with the tax-credit. The customers go to them as a conquest from other brands. Since the credits weren’t alotted in KWh, but capped at ~250k (?), most of them were eligible for the full $7,500.

          For other brands, especially Toyota, credits got squandered on small battery cars. 4-5kwh took that credit down to, what, $<2,000?

          1. pjwood1 says:

            ..I should say the net result being better market share, versus higher margins (at Toyota).

            1. Nix says:

              That’s correct. Toyota sold a bunch of those PiP’s to their previous Prius owners who had been looking at aftermarket batteries that added minimal additional EV range by replacing the spare tire with a battery pack. Toyota’s customers were asking for a factory version, and Toyota gave them exactly what they had asked for.

              They definitely didn’t pull in customers from the greater EV fanatic community.

          2. Ziv says:

            Remember that the tax credit doesn’t go away after the 200,000th car is sold by each car maker. It gets cut in half 3-6 months after the 200k’th car is sold. AND, the car maker can get UNLIMITED full credits for the entire 3-6 months.
            If Tesla sells their 200k’th electric car on 12/15/2017, they get the full credit until 3/31/2018, for 3.5 months worth of credits. If they sell their 200k’th car on 1/15/2018, they get the full credit until 6/30/2018, for 5.5 months of full credits. In both cases they will get another 6 months of unlimited amounts of cars getting $3750 and then 6 months of $1875 credits.
            You can bet that both Tesla and GM will game the sale so that they get the extra 3 months of unlimited full credits for their electric cars. All they need to do is arrange to hit 200k early in the quarter.

        2. philip d says:

          They actually are closer than that if you count all Spark EVs and ELRs sold to date.

          If the Volt sells 2,000 more each month for the last 3 months of this year the total Volts sold to date will be 110,424.

          Cadillac ELR sold around 2,863 over 4 years.

          Chevy Spark is on track to have sold 7,932 by the end of this year.

          For GM that comes to a total of 121,219 sold by the end of this year. If the Volt sells almost as many as it has this year and the Bolt sells 30,000 this year then GM will be looking at hitting the mark by mid 2018.

          1. philip d says:

            Meant to say if the Bolt sells 30,000 in its first year meaning 2017.

        3. jelloslug says:

          They have about 80k to go now.

  10. no comment says:

    this is “the announcement”??? the one that was pre-announced and had to be delayed by 2 days?

    1. Nix says:

      No, this is Elon being forced into doing some troll bashing. Because Fortune and others have been trolling the internet trying to make people think Tesla has delayed the Model 3 by a year. They haven’t.

    2. ffbj says:

      No. Typically Elon likes to do them around twilight time.

  11. Trollnonymous says:

    Anyone know if the the M3 reservation is “Transferable”?

    I know someone who has a very early deposit but his other half will be losing her job when they send it out of the US.

    I’m considering taking it over but not sure if it’s transferable. One would think it is because a sale is a sale right?
    šŸ˜›

    1. jelloslug says:

      Nope, non-transferable.

      1. Trollnonymous says:

        Nooooooooooooo……..
        Please tell me you’re just yanking my chain.
        Pretty please?

        1. Nix says:

          https://www.tesla.com/sites/default/files/pdfs/model_3_reservation_agreement.pdf

          “Your Reservation is not transferable or assignable to another party without the prior written approval of Tesla.”

          I’m not sure what Tesla would approve or not.

          1. SparkEV says:

            If it’s transferable, it could create a secondary market for people buying / selling reservations, and headache that go with it for Tesla. I doubt Tesla will approve of any, unless it’s for family members of the deceased. Even that I’m not sure if it’s worth it for Tesla.

            1. Nix says:

              That sounds logical.

            2. floydboy says:

              Yep!

          2. Pushmi-Pullyu says:

            Nix said:

            “Iā€™m not sure what Tesla would approve or not.”

            Last time I saw a discussion of this on the Tesla Motors Club forum, Tesla had apparently not approved any transfers of reservations for the Model X. None at all.

            I doubt they will be any more flexible with Model ā‰” reservations, because they don’t want any bad publicity over “scalpers”.

            1. Nix says:

              That makes sense.

        2. Scott Franco says:

          Ditto to the NO. It says that on the Tesla reservation site.

    2. Hauer says:

      Made my reservation few days ago. Fine print says, it ist NOT transferable, EXCEPT Tesla allows the transfer.
      So it might be, but you cannot count on it.

  12. Huhu says:

    I believe strongly that Tesla will be able to produce at least 200,000 Model 3 in a year starting late 2017. Don’t under-estimate the technology Tesla has built up so far, you will be amazed how quickly those Robots will be rolling out the much simpler Model 3s.
    Elon is aiming for 500,000 Teslas a year in 2018, I think even 300,000 is more than what Wall Street is modeling right now.

    1. Pushmi-Pullyu says:

      Then be prepared to be disappointed. Even Elon admitted that his aggressive schedule for ramping up production is, basically, impossible. It’s a goal they’re aiming for, but the odds are very great that one or more links in the chain will fail, and that there will be some delay in ramping up to 200,000 cars per year, or even a 2017 end-of-year production rate equivalent to that.

      I’m a Tesla fanboy, but I won’t ignore the fact that Tesla has always been overly optimistic about how fast it’s going to get cars into production, and how fast it can ramp that up.

  13. Fiure Inguinal says:

    I will buy a Chevy Bolt since it has greater range and cargo capacity – and do not have to wait until 2018 “or later” since I never placed a Tesla reservation. I had a problem reserving a car that I knew next to nothing about.

    1. jelloslug says:

      Except that nobody knows the range of the Model 3 and unless you live in California you won’t be seeing a Bolt for months and months.

      1. Spider-Dan says:

        I’m pretty sure that no matter where you live, you will be able to get a Bolt at least a year before you are able to get a $35,000 Model III… and that’s if you already have a reservation.

        If you don’t have a reservation, you can probably lease a Bolt and have the lease end right around the time a $35,000 Model III is available for walk-up buyers.

        1. Pushmi-Pullyu says:

          I’m pretty sure that with only “>30,000” Bolts made in the first year of production, there are going to be a great number of people who want a Bolt but won’t be able to get one. Especially in non-CARB States.

  14. speculawyer says:

    Nice straightforward simple response to a misleading article that made people think they are delayed.

    (And they may be delayed eventually but I guess they are still gung ho.)

  15. bro1999 says:

    So any word on the “product announcement” that was pushed back to today? I’m starting to wonder if this is some slow roll troll job by Elon.

  16. JRMW says:

    We are wobbling back and forth.

    Have a Model 3 reservation (reserved 2 minutes BEFORE official launch!) be I live in MN and don’t plan on doing every upgrade.

    Now current car (Lexus) hit 120k miles and is starting to get those “death by 1,000 papercuts”

    So I’m torn.
    Keep the Lexus 2 more years and pay the repair bills… but it’s $1500 here, $900 there… ugh.

    or
    Lease or Buy Chevy Volt.

    or
    Lease or Buy Chevy Bolt.

    I really wish the Bolt or Volt had AWD options. urgh.

    But since they don’t, I wish I knew when the heck the Bolt or “normal” AWD Model 3 will get to MN… to help figure out whether or not to keep the Lexus or Lease or buy a Volt/Bolt.

    šŸ™

    1. bro1999 says:

      Order a Bolt from a SoCal dealer right now, then just have it shipped to MN. I’m in MD, and am about to drop my $500 check in the mail for a Premier Arctic Blue Metallic Bolt.

      1. SparkEV says:

        Don’t forget to check with your local dealer if they can service Bolt before getting it. I’m not worried about bro1999 as he’s an “expert” but a word of caution for those who are new to “EV export business”.

    2. jelloslug says:

      Keep the old car.

    3. Josh Bryant says:

      I am in a similar position. Been driving a crap ICE I despise for 2 years now after my LEAF lease.

      I had been aligning the finances to justify a Model S, (hence temp ICE), then baby(daycare) and new house erased those plans. Just had to sink $1k into the ICE to keep it safe while waiting for Bolt, LEAF 2.0, or my Model 3 reservation. I tried to work out a Volt 2.0 2-year lease, but no dealer in Houston could go below $600/mo on a lease. I just couldn’t justify it.

      What I am doing (and recommend to you also), is wait for the January shows, CES and NAIAS, to pass. LEAF 2.0 will be announced then, Bolt will be closer to being nationwide available, and Model 3 reveal Part 2 will be around then.

      I am also holding out hope that GM might surprise with a VoltUV this show season also, which could offer 4wd. I don’t like driving SUVs, but the ride height is nice with loading/unloading kids.

      If AWD is your only priority, get in touch with a Tesla rep about an inventory/used 60/70/75 D model. They just blew out ton of them out at the end of September, but expect a similar rush around Xmas.

      Good luck with your decision, let us know what path you take.

    4. Nix says:

      4wd? Sounds like you need a Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV. AWD and it has a gas engine to produce as much heat as you could ever need in a cold weather location.

      It should be available in 2014. I mean 2015. I mean 2016. I mean 2017…..

      /sarc

    5. JRMW says:

      Great advice all.

      Especially about seeing what January and the model 3 full reveal are about.

      Luckily, all of my options are doable. it just sucks pumping thousands of bucks into a failing car!

      And don’t even get me started on the Outlander PHEV. That WAS the original plan. arrrgghhhh!

      And Lexus is SERIOUSLY pissing me off with their anti-EV bull.

      1. Josh says:

        In case you missed it, the Tesla announcement tonight is about Model 3. So make sure to read the details later.

        Outlander PHEV, lol. I had my wife convinced to make that her car (3 years, and 2 cars ago now). I think teleportation will be readily available before an Outlander PHEV makes it way to Texas.

  17. EVA-01 says:

    Those reservations are not orders Elon, they are people waiting in line to order. They paid for a place in line to order.

    I really don’t like how he assumes that they are automatically a sale for Tesla.

    1. TomArt says:

      He has plenty of experience with these things, with the Model S and Model X reservations prior to launch, where they can reasonably estimate how many will translate to sales, and how many vehicles they actually expect to produce in the first year of production.