Electrification, Autonomous Drive Are 2 Of 4 Major Factors Pushing Automotive Disruption
Roland Berger released a new report entitled “Automotive Disruption Radar“, identifying four major trends in the automotive industry – electrification, autonomous driving, digitalization and mobility services.
Those trends are leading to the transformation of the industry, which of course brings a lot of new opportunities. As a result, there will be a lot of new players, as well as many spectacular failures, especially for those that try to jump on the train to late (or too early).
Roland Berger said that the automotive industry, and its supply chain face, the greatest disruption in their history.
Apparently, interest is especially growing interest in electric vehicles, which is not terrible surprising to readers around here:
“The automotive industry faces a radical transformation: Digitization is already facilitating the availability of mobility services like car sharing and ride sharing and is opening up new sales channels. At the same time, electric drive vehicles are becoming an ever greater presence in the market. And there is no stopping the rapid advance of autonomous driving.
Faced with all of this technological disruption, it is interesting to consider how these new developments are going down with customers. And it seems that if it were up to them, the future would be one of self-driving cars and electric vehicles: As many as 46 percent of consumers worldwide would not buy a car again if they had self-driving taxis, otherwise known as robocabs, at their disposal at lower cost. Moreover, 37 percent of consumers are already considering buying an electric vehicle for their next car.
These are the findings of Roland Berger’s first Automotive Disruption Radar. Designed to help automotive industry players make investment decisions, the Automotive Disruption Radar is a publication for which the consultancy regularly examines the progress and the impact of disruptive trends like new mobility concepts, automated driving, interconnectivity and digital services plus electrification. The analysis captures the status quo and progress of developments in five especially relevant areas: regulation, technology, infrastructure, industry activity and customer interest. The experts from Roland Berger consider developments across 25 indices to produce a detailed analysis of these categories. To assess consumer sentiment, for example, the Radar incorporates the views of more than 10,000 consumers across 10 countries: China, France, Germany, India Japan, the Netherlands, Singapore, South Korea, the UK and the USA.”
Electric cars are most popular in China
Electromobility is another area in which the Automotive Disruption Radar highlights significant regional variation. Customers from China express an overwhelmingly positive attitude toward electric vehicles. 60 percent are considering buying an EV as their next car. In South Korea too (54%) more than half of respondents would consider an electric car. Customers from Europe, Japan, South Korea and the USA view the high prices as the main barrier to the purchase of such a vehicle. “Electric vehicles still account for a rather small portion of the market – but the share of electric models in total production saw a significant increase in 2016,” explains Wolfgang Bernhart. “Advances in battery technology give the vehicles greater range and consequently greater convenience. Added to that, the costs have fallen dramatically: high energy cells for electric vehicles are on course to cost about 120 euros per kilowatt hour by 2020. That is three times lower than what a battery cost when the first models were produced.”
“These developments show that the entire automotive industry is approaching the end of an era. And the new momentum in the market is driven by a change in customer expectations,” says Berret in summary. “So there’s a balancing act to be done here: OEMs and suppliers alike need to respond to the disruption and develop new potential. But they can’t just break away from their existing infrastructure, they need to actively work through the process of transformation. That is the biggest challenge for the market players.
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The first issue of the report is available here: Automotive Disruption Radar Issue #1
source: Green Car Congress