Here’s Seven Reasons Why Electric Vehicles Will Kill The Gas Car

SEP 22 2018 BY EVANNEX 65

ELECTRIC VEHICLES WILL KILL THE GAS CAR — HERE’S WHY

Are the days of the gas guzzler numbered? Tom Raftery (via Forbes) says there are “seven reasons why the internal combustion engine is a dead man walking.” He explains, “Electric cars are the future. The transition has just begun, but the move from ICE vehicles to electric will happen sooner and more quickly than most people suspect.” Here’s why…

*This article comes to us courtesy of EVANNEX (which also makes aftermarket Tesla accessories). Authored by Matt Pressman. The opinions expressed in these articles are not necessarily our own at InsideEVs.

Above: Tesla Model X and Model 3 (Flickr: Steve Jurvetson)

1. LOOK TO CHINA

In the world’s largest car market, Raftery notes that “China has passed a law which requires any vehicle maker to obtain a new energy vehicle score of at least 10% by 2019, which rises to 12% by 2020, and on up to 20% of sales by 2025. As a result of this announcement, all the major OEM’s have suddenly found EV religion.” Tesla, already ahead of the curve, signed an agreement with Shanghai Municipal People’s Government to build its first Gigafactory outside of the United States in China.

Above: Tesla’s Elon Musk sits down with China’s Vice Premier Wang Yang (Twitter: China Xinhua News)

2. BATTERY COSTS CONTINUE TO GO DOWN

Raftery notes, “Lithium-ion batteries cost $1,000 per kWh in 2010. By 2017 that cost had fallen to $200 per kWh, and it won’t stop there. At the Tesla shareholder meeting on June 5th of this year, Elon Musk stated that Tesla would be at $100 per kWh within 2 years. $100 per kWh is widely agreed to be the figure where EVs and ICE vehicles will have a comparable upfront purchase price. So, by 2020 the cost of batteries will have fallen 90% in 10 years, and the price will continue to drop.”

Above: Lithium-ion battery costs 2010-2017 (Source: Forbes / Credit: Bloomberg)

3. BATTERY CAPACITY CONTINUES TO GO UP

Range anxiety is quickly fading away. Raftery explains, “Lithium-ion batteries are increasing in energy density at a rate of 5-8% per annum…. the Tesla Roadster, which launches in 2020, has a stated range of 1,000km. When electric vehicles have a range of 1,000km, it is the ICE vehicles which start to have a range problem.” Just a quick glance at the range of today’s electric vehicles show this trend clearly — if others continue to follow the leader (aka Tesla), range should continue to steadily improve.

Above: Looking at the EPA-rated all-electric range of 2018/2019 electric cars (Source: InsideEVs)

4. ELECTRIC CAR BATTERY PACKS HAVE A LONG LIFE

It’s reported that “Contrary to what many believe, the batteries in electric vehicles don’t degrade over time (or over miles/kilometers driven either). This is a graph of the battery capacity of Tesla Model S/X vehicles, and it shows that after driving 270,000km (roughly 168,000 miles), the batteries still had 91% of their original capacity… the bottom line is that the batteries lose about 1% of capacity every 30,000km (18,750 miles). This means that the upfront cost of an electric vehicle can be depreciated over a far longer time lowering the vehicle’s total cost of ownership significantly – EVs will just keep on working. Having said that, this data is specific to Tesla batteries – we will have to wait to see how other manufacturers fare.”

Above: Tesla battery degradation (Source: Forbes / Credit: Matteo)

5. ELECTRIC CARS ARE MORE RELIABLE

And, don’t forget: “Another factor in favor of electric vehicles is that they are far more reliable. The drivetrain in an ICE vehicle contains 2,000+ moving parts typically, whereas the drivetrain in an EV contains around 20. A quick scan of the top 10 cars repairs of 2015 is telling. Only one of these faults can happen to an electric vehicle (number 4, and it is by far the cheapest to fix).” It makes you wonder what would happen if an EV driver was forced to go back to a gas car.

Above: Top 10 car repairs 2015 (Source: Forbes / Credit: credit.com)

6. ELECTRIC CARS ARE CHEAPER TO “FUEL”

According to Raftery, “Electric vehicles are typically significantly cheaper to fuel as well (unless you happen to live somewhere that has particularly cheap petrol and extremely expensive electricity). And with the price of oil going up 50% in the last 12 months, finding somewhere with cheap petrol will become increasingly difficult.” For reference, check out the data from the top five US cities where it happens to be the least expensive to drive an electric car based (primarily) on lower electricity rates.

Above: One year crude oil price (Source: Forbes / Credit: infomine.com)

7. ICE CAR RESALE VALUES WILL COLLAPSE

Already electric vehicles and hybrids have become the fastest selling used cars (see below). As this trend continues, Raftery forecasts that, “the resale value of ICE automobiles is going to collapse… why would you buy one today? Think about that for a second. Why would you buy an Internal Combustion Engine vehicle today, if its resale value in 3-4 years will have fallen significantly? You wouldn’t. And when people start to realize that, the market will flip. And it will happen quickly. Sooner than most people think. Will your next car be an EV?”

Above: A look at the fastest selling used cars; note that the top 5 fastest selling used cars are all electric vehicles and hybrids (Source: iSeeCars)

These seven factors point to an automotive future with no emissions. And, there’s even a “growing list of cities [and countries] that are passing legislation to ban diesel engined vehicles from driving on their streets” further encouraging the uptake of clean cars. Raftery concludes, “when electric vehicles start to become more common, drivers of internal combustion engine vehicles will be thought of the way smokers are regarded today.”

===

Source: Forbes

*Editor’s Note: EVANNEX, which also sells aftermarket gear for Teslas, has kindly allowed us to share some of its content with our readers, free of charge. Our thanks go out to EVANNEX. Check out the site here.

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65 Comments on "Here’s Seven Reasons Why Electric Vehicles Will Kill The Gas Car"

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Seems reasonable. Add to that their resale value is higher and will continue to distance itself from ICE, as people become less likely to buy a car with an ICE, since its resale value will continue to fall as the EV revolution advances.
Although there is still no pick-up truck ev in mass production, which in the U.S. is the major portion of the vehicle market.

Pickup trucks are some 15% of sales in he US last I heard. Way too much, but far from “the major portion”.

We desperately need a decent electric pick-up and mid-size electric SUV with 300+ mile range, both priced around $50K.

I should have said light trucks, which are the major portion, and pick-ups are a part of that group.
I stand corrected.

Several BEV light trucks are in or nearing production:
– Jaguar I-Pace
-Audi e-Tron
-Hyundai Kona/Kia Niro

Whether they’ll be “mass produced” is an issue of semantics. Model 3 is arguably the only mass produced EV.

Well 350,000 EV’s will be sold in the US in 2018 and probably half of them will be Tesla’s. Tesla is forcing car manufacturers to build EV’s because EV’s are what the consumer wants.

And none of the seven was that EVs are just more fun to drive, for their zippy, smooth, quiet ride!

biggest things for me are:

great acceleration (Nm/$)
so smooth and quiet
zero powertrain maintenance
can run the heater and A/C while parked waiting for someone (or recharging, sigh)
Don’t have to deal with stinky gas stations every week
Not sending money to buttheads in the Mideast (or Midwest for that matter)
Doing my part to reduce AGW
With all the incentives I got actual acquisition cost is less than $15,000

Not to mention Brake pads, mufflers, gaskets, oil changes, the list goes on and on…

Don’t forget the frunk for transporting smelly take-out food that doesn’t permeate the cabin with old, stagnant food smell for days.

If it has a frunk.
This excellent feature is actually missing in most non-Tesla models including most of the “premium” German BEVs now finally starting to launch over the next several years. Another missed opportunity I think.

They are quiet, and when stuck in traffic the motor switches off, so no wasted fuel and no fumes. With electric cars on the streets we will soon clean up the air in cities

What do you mean the motor switches off? Are you thinking of gas hybrids?

Switches off isn’t the correct terminology, the motor is “on” while the car is on. But sitting in traffic the motor doesn’t consume energy when it’s not moving, unlike a gas car. Also when creeping along, an electric car uses fractions of the energy a gas car does.

Fast acceleration could actually be dangerous, and encourage more accidents. I worry that this is being promoted too much – rather than the much more important aspects of EVs (the fact they are zero emissions).

And for me, the most important is that Petrol has date of expiry. Every day there are less petrol and is more expensive and hard to obtain. This produces crisis, wars to keep the control over the resources, and overall suffering for millions people. We must to prepare the future of humanity without petrol, more sustainable and fairer for everybody.

if I get an ICE truck/RV I plan on converting to CNG or LPG actually

Globe has around 50 years of supply, good enough to get me through retirement

That is the problem with most policy makers. Like our huge deficit. It will be OK for my lifetime. Does anyone consider their children?, grandchildren? What type of world do we want to leave them?

“A quick scan of the top 10 cars repairs of 2015 is telling. Only one of these faults can happen to an electric vehicle (number 4, and it is by far the cheapest to fix).” Really? REALLY????? – “Take a look at the top 10 car repairs of 2015: 4.Tightening or replacing a fuel cap – $15” Where’s the fuel cap on my BEV?

Some of the pro-EV claims in this article are rather over the top. Citing the next-gen Tesla Roadster, with its claimed 1000 km range, is taking an outlier and pretending it’s the norm. The truth is that it’s very far from the norm, and future average EV range is rather unlikely to exceed 300-350 miles.

Also: “Contrary to what many believe, the batteries in electric vehicles don’t degrade over time (or over miles/kilometers driven either).”

Say what? Of course they degrade over time. Fortunately they don’t degrade as fast as almost everyone feared*, but they do degrade over time. Duh!

*Unless you’re driving a Leaf, in which case that might happen.

* * * * *

I look forward to the time when the EV revolution has advanced far enough that EV advocates are no longer tempted to exaggerate their virtues. As it is, making claims like this — claims which are not merely a bit biased, but which are factually incorrect — making clams like this is only going to lead to backlash against EVs when potential buyers find out the truth.

To be fair, although the one sentence does say there isn’t any battery degradation, the section in which it is found, including the graphic, makes it quite clear that they were exaggerating for rhetorical effect – degradation is minor, i.e., ~10% after 180,000 miles. It isn’t any different from me saying that my Honda Civic has run forever, we all know I’m not speaking literally.

Certainly the accompanying graph does show there is some degradation. I agree that context is very important.

On the other hand, it should be easier and cheaper to replace your old car’s battery in 10 years, than it is now (if battery costs keep going down).

The interesting thing about the 1000 km figure is that it proves having such ranges in a BEV is *perfectly possible* — if more mainstream models don’t go there, that’s because it’s not necessary, not because the technology can’t do it.

The claim in this article ignores the reality that the next-gen Roadster almost certainly wasn’t given an oversized battery pack for its extended range, but rather for its power and/or its ability to handle heat. While that certainly proves it’s possible, it ignores the reality that an oversized battery pack is currently too expensive to be put into a mainstream car.

The claim is about future potential, not what is affordable today.

While you are right about battery degradation, it’s so low that it’s probably not that relevant comparatively speaking. ICEVs also lose range with time if I’m not mistaken, due to other forms of degradation. Of course, people generally don’t notice this in their case because no actual range meter is provided. The same reason why some people still don’t realize that hauling trailers reduce their ICEV range considerably. The Roadster 2020 is an outlier but it seems to also be a technology demonstrator much like the predecessor so I would say that it is still relevant to what will come after that vehicle is released. Your assumption that there is low likelihood of anything beyond 350miles of range in the future doesn’t seem that solid since there is no way to know what technologies the future will bring. One of the main advantages of EVs is that energy storage chemistry and design are unlikely to be monopolized, there probably isn’t going to be a single easily extractable resource they rely on which is also only available in certain regions and we do not need to reinvent the vehicle support and production infrastructure when a new battery technology is introduced. I… Read more »

350 miles range, would be far more than enough for the majority of drivers anyway. Especially as the charging situation improves in the next decade.

I actually think 250 miles is about right, there are some negatives to too a too large battery in an EV. Extra weight and cost for something you will almost never use. I would say 150-200 except that seems to limit DC fast charging and performance somewhat.

Cost is about half every 5 years. density doubles about every 10 years.

That implies you can have double the range for half the price in the same battery mass(weight) in around 10 years.

The roadster battery capacity won’t be exceptional any more at that time.

The EV Revolution could, should and would have happened 15-20 years ago if the public had woken up, paid attention and collectively pressured carmakers and governments to produce more great, ground-breaking EVs like the original Toyota RAV4 EV, GM EV1 etc.
If our MEDIA hadn’t turned away and buried the subject of EVs after oil-men Bush & Cheney somehow made it to the White House (instead of green Al Gore) – not only would Chris Paine’s film “Who Killed the Electric Car” not have been needed…the EV revolution could have been fuelled, promoted and unleashed – as I said – 15-20 years ago.
(Link to full movie/docu “Who Killed..” – in English with Spanish subtitles:
https://youtu.be/0bWSe02UK-s )

Paul G

Nah, it would still have taken quite a while for the technology to become ready to take on the mainstream. It probably would have happened a few years earlier: but likely no more than that. To more significantly advance the revolution, major investments in battery research would have been needed decades earlier.

That’s right. “Who Killed the Electric Car?” got it completely wrong on a very important point: Inadequate battery tech was very much one of the main reasons, arguably the main reason, why GM “killed” the EV1. That was never going to be more than a test-market car, and it’s completely unrealistic to think GM could have sold or leased it at a profit.

I enjoyed “Who Killed the Electric Car?”, and it’s an interesting documentary, but it’s also a rather biased piece of propaganda. We should watch the film with critical thinking fully engaged, and take note when the film wanders away from facts and logical analysis into propaganda.

Reportedly GM was testing a NiMH variant with better range; and Nissan supposedly was even playing with Li-Ion already. They wouldn’t have become runaway successes overnight — but killing these programs on the cusp of major breakthroughs was still very bad, and clearly a political decision.

I don’t know about the GM program, but the Nissan program was not killed, far from it. It was considered an important cornerstone for the future of the company, protected from cost cutting while Nissan went through a near death experience. It resulted in the Nissan Leaf a few years later.

We were fortunate enough to have this exclusive interview with John Dabels on the matter years ago. Worth the read. https://insideevs.com/insideevs-exclusive-interview-with-general-motors-ev1-marketing-director-john-dabels-part-1/

Great interview. Thanks for reposting the link!

I respectfully disagree, a car like the Chevy Volt was possible even in the 70s with NiCad batteries. The oil shocks should have motivated us to start the EV revolution then. Better batteries would have soon followed because there was a need for them, like cell phones and laptops eventually let to Lithium Ions. There is always push back from legacy interests and oil/ICE has so much money to resist!

Read RethinkX
EVs will have the Capability to drive a million miles or more.
Why is that important?
Cars normally sit there unused 95% of the time.
Add Autonomous driving.
While your car is just sitting there, it will take off automatically and be used for ride sharing paying for itself. Driving the cost WAY DOWN. Making cost of old style ICE 4X to 10X more…
Cost of autonomous is falling dramatically because of the lowering cost of computers and sensors. And computer/sensors get better and smarter all the time.

If that’s true, people will need far less cars. It could be possible to subsist without a car.

We have to do better representing electricity costs. I think Evannex was wise to simply say gas has gone up “50%”.

Crescent Electric assumed 30 mile round-trip commutes, which add to about 7,800 miles/yr. With per year costs $55-$157(NYC), this implies unrealistically cheap electricity. Still, folks should realize a gas car getting 30mpg, for a more realistic 12k miles all year, pays ~$1,200 (@$3ea).

Its very premature to talk about end of ICEs.
ICEs can run not only on petroleum fuels (Gasoline, Diesel, LPG), but also on
Natgas fuels (CNG, LNG, Methanol)
Biofuels (Ethanol, Biodiesel).

Already 2 million b/d of biofuels are blended with petro fuels as E10, E15, E27, B20 and so on.
Methane/Methanol is obtained from Coal and used as transport fuel.
Methane is converted to some liquid fuels like gasoline and used as transport fuel.

All this will ensure that petrofuels at the retail gas station remains cheap.
What if automakers decide to make all cars as flex fuel vehicles that can run on gasoline, ethanol, methanol and bio-fuel vehicles that can run on gasoline and LPG. They will go to any extent to ensure that electric vehicles will be kept in the tight spot.

Biofuels are neither cheap nor sustainable; and synthetic fuels are even more expensive. There is a pretty broad consensus that many (likely most) biofuels actually do more harm than fossils. It’s just green-washing, in an attempt to keep doing “business as usual”. If we are to have any chance to reduce global warming, it all has to go, aside from some niche uses perhaps.

I think you are reading 1990’s news.
Corn yield / hectare has increased and also the ethanol yield from a ton of corn has increased drastically.
That’s why production is increasing and setting records. FYI: Subsidies were phased out in 2011 itself.
Please read from this site for US production if you are interested.

https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_pnp_wprode_s1_w.htm

Some countries like India, Bangladesh, Nigeria may be land scarce, but USA, Brazil, Canada, Australia has plenty of land to produce biofuels.
Biofuels will continue to increase. Even India and China are going to introduce E10 Ethanol.

Compared to the future prices of wind and solar, all hydrocarbon fuels are too expensive.

Don’t Bio fuels require land that should be used for food?

If you live in Britain or Ireland, yes its land scarce, but if you are USA, Canada, Australia, there is plenty of land.
Please check the maps. I am not saying that bio-fuels are the only option, there is also natgas based fuels, hybrids, plugins, electricity.

All I am saying is that the ICE makers will also sell vehicles that run on other fuels.

That is right. Do you know how powerful the oil industry is. They will make sure and make us think everything is handy dandy. We all have no idea that these people control the world.

EVs are not cheaper to fuel. The price of electric per unit energy is similar to that of gasoline. They are cheaper to OPERATE because of much higher efficiency, roughly 80% for an EV vs roughly 20-25% for a gas powered vehicle, bit higher for diesel. National average electric price is $0.125/kWh. Gasoline at $3.50/gallon is about 3.50/33.7 kWh/gal = $0.104/gallon. Its the energy efficiency that makes the difference.

Except when you generate your own electricity which around 1-in-3 EV drivers do.

Depends on where you live. In my country, electricity is about the same as you stated but petrol is twice more expensive because of high taxation.

That’s pointless nitpicking. If you have to put less energy into the vehicle, at the same price per unit, that still makes it cheaper to fuel.

Electricity price is $0.125 / KWh factoring in the fixed costs, whether you consume 1 KWh/ month or 1,000 KWh/month you have to pay the fixed cost of $20 – $25.

Just exclude this and take the variable cost and the price of electricity will be much lesser.
When you buy an EV and start charging, you are just making better use of that fixed cost that is used to maintain the grid.

So if I am consuming 200 KWh/month and paying $20/month for fixed cost. I am paying nearly $0.10 / KWh, now if I buy and EV and consume 400 KWh/month, then for the fixed cost I am paying only $20 / 400 KWh = $0.05 / KWh and I will certainly go with it.
And I did buy Nissan Leaf.

Range anxiety is the most overblown statistic in all of EV land. With only 10% of all miles (avg) requiring charge poles for a 250 mile range EV and the use is on only 3% of days of ownership (10 travelling days a year of 200+ miles in one direction. It is EXTREMELY rare for anyone to travel consecutive days of 500+ miles instead of fly and destination charging after arrival or asleep takes care of the return trip first 200 miles as well. Once you go EV you aint goin back is another plus and the collapse of the used car market is going to be the LARGEST factor in accelerating the move to EV’s. By 2023 this will be a MAJOR concern as depreciation rates for ICE vehicles start to show near total loss on investment by 2030. Autonomous driving is the wild card game changer. When autonomous taxi fees drop below 30 cents a mile the entire vehicle sales market will collapse. It will go from 80 million annual sales to below 10million in just a couple of years. NONE of those will be ICE.

I’ve never driven more than 150 miles in a single trip without a significant stop, anyway.

Vehicle sales will *not* drop by a factor of ten because of autonomous taxis. While the total fleet will be smaller due to higher utilisation (though not nearly by a factor of ten), it will also require replacements more often.

Also, many people will prefer to stick with owning private cars. In less densely populated areas, shared fleets don’t even make sense, since going to the next customer would not only involve significant wait times, but also add significant extra mileage.

Subject-verb agreement, anyone?

One important item not mentioned is that electric vehicles are a blast to drive due to the instant torque.

Breaking News:

“Porsche to drop diesel”

Porsche plans to stop offering diesel versions of its cars. Porsche will be the first German automaker to drop diesel since the emissions-cheating scandal developed within the industry.

As it prepares for a diesel-free future, Porsche says it will focus resources on hybrid and battery-powered vehicle development.

Porsche aims to launch its first fully-electric sports car next year when a new Taycan is introduced.

Porsche introduced its first Diesel in 2002 so they haven’t invested as much money in Diesel engines as the rest of the Auto Industry.

I disagree with most of this article. The Chinese are buying tiny, cheap EV’s, which don’t require a license to drive. That poses problems for pricier EV sales there. Those tiny, unsafe EV’s won’t be allowed in the USA and I’m sure most other countries will ban them for safety reasons. I don’t see countries other than China choosing Chinese EV’s over Japanese, European, South Korean, or American EV’s. Used ICE vehicle sales are booming in the USA because new cars are getting a bit too pricey. Price does matter. The ban on manufacturing ICE vehicles won’t happen in most countries until at least 2040, which means people who buy new and used ICE vehicles in 2039 will need assurances that gasoline will be available at reasonable prices until at least 2050. I’m guessing most vehicles with ICE’s will be hybridized by then. There will be a lot of used ICE vehicles at reasonable prices for decades. Not so for EV’s. The phasing out of ICE vehicles, including hybrids, will take longer than most EV fanatics believe. The great majority of us will still prefer ICE vehicles until solid-state arrives. That’s when recharging times and safety will no longer be… Read more »

As much as I love my EV and love the idea of people driving EVs in general, I hardly think that ICEs will be dead in the near or distant future. They will remain at least in some niche markets like off-road vehicles operating in off-grid areas (where there is no electric power to charge the car), areas with very cold climate (where using electric heating would drain the battery too quickly) or as cars built in a more traditional style for some purists like muscle cars. I think that the EV share will creep little by little over ICE share until it becomes stabilized or until there is another break-through technology (like happened to Li-Ion batteries to EVs) or change in the market (a lithium or oil crisis, for example) that would favor either drive-type.

Obviously this site is for EV fanboys (and girls), but let me interject a little common sense here.

Point #4, about battery life does, as stated, only apply to Tesla. I’ve been reading of much quicker battery degradation in the Nissan Leaf. Point #7, regarding the collapse of ICE resale values. Not everybody trades in their cars every couple of years. We buy our cars for about 8 years, and will put close to 200K miles on said car, therefore resale is not a consideration in our purchase. The prospect of much lower maintenance costs for an EV though, is exciting. Also, contrary to some comments here some people do actually use their pickups as trucks. I don’t see an EV hauling my 26 ft. camper around or taking 1000 lbs. of crap from one of my rentals to the dump. Thank you.

But electric cars aren’t as fun and never will be as fun. Gas cars are loud and can be heavily modified, people like me don’t care about resale value, we just want to build fun cars. Imagine how boring doing donuts and burnouts would be without a loud engine. Imagine how boring racing would be.