Electric Truck Market Potential Is Massive

FEB 6 2019 BY MARK KANE 41

EV truck sales expected to increase beyond 100,000 by 2029

According to the Visiongain report about the electric truck market, the potential is huge – up to $37.2 billion in just 10 years from now.

Assuming an average price of the electric trucks, we could estimate the sales volume:

  • at $100,000 per truck – 372,000 trucks per year
  • at $200,000 per truck – 186,000 trucks per year
  • at $300,000 per truck – 124,000 trucks per year

Of course, truck pricing depends on if we’re assuming electric pickup trucks for the consumer market, or larger commercial semi trucks. It will surely be a mix of both.

As the global all-electric bus market hit 90,000 per year, we could probably assume that sales of trucks will also be in the six-digit range, especially 10 years from now.

Source: Electric Truck Market Report 2019-2029

Categories: Trucks

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41 Comments on "Electric Truck Market Potential Is Massive"

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I expect by 2029, Ford will have its F150 EV out, and both Tesla and Rivian will have been through a refresh of their pickup trucks. This report will be long remembered as a gross understatement.

Ford and Rivian surviving to 2029 isn’t a given. If Tesla can manage to sell ~500K trucks per year, Ford is dead. There’s not a demand problem for Tesla, so that means all Tesla has to do is build those trucks. Back in 2014 when Tesla was only building 50K Model S per year, Ford could have (and did) laugh off Tesla.

Today, Tesla is producing vehicles at a rate of over 300K per year. There’s no reason to think Tesla couldn’t start producing a pickup in 2020 and have it ramped to 10K per week by 2022. Ford’s profits will top out in 2020, and begin falling until they’re losing money in 2022. And they’ll just keep on burning money until they’re bankrupt.

BMW will be on a similar trajectory, about a year ahead of Ford. BMW is too dependent on the luxury sedan and crossover market that Tesla is dominating in. Ford is too dependent on the pickup market that Tesla will enter soon.

Although… probably not. It’s hard to say how quickly Tesla is going to enter the pickup market right now. Maybe they’ll start in 2021 and take until 2024 to ramp to 10K per week.

Tesla is at earliest 4 years off from a pickup unless they have secretly developed one. They made a mistake in not doing one earlier as Rivian snuck in and did the same stunt as Tesla did to get into car market with Model S. They made a pickup out classing any ICE pickup. They will beat Tesla to market by 2 years unless they botch it up.

I’m more inclined to agree with you than not.
They may put out a few in 2021, but mass production is 3-4 years away.

Outclassing any ICE pickup? In acceleration sure, everything else is debatable or around the same (or less) than similar ICE pickups.

And the EV pickup market is big enough for multiple brands, whether that be Tesla and Rivian, Rivian and Ford, or more likely, Tesla, Rivian, Ford, GM… etc etc.

In the same way Tesla outclasses other ICEs (hint, it doesn’t in every way, mainly just acceleration, electric, OTA, etc).

So one is pretty irrelevant for most pickup buyers, the second is the change in drivetrain and the third is not really relevant to capability either.

Care to provide some actual datapoints?

Payload is lower than other full size trucks (but good for a midsize, which it is closer to IMO) and towing is about the same – As Wil alluded to below, towing capacity on pickups is quite often more a function of other factors, not drivetrain.

Every EV doesn’t have to outclass an ICE at every corner, it can be just as good and be cheaper to run. That’s all that’ll be needed for most people.

Everything else really depends on what you want to use the vehicle for. I bought my F-150 because it had a 6.5′ bed and had a 1900lb payload. The Rivian is way “outclassed” in both those factors. If someone wants a smaller truck and doesn’t care about those two factors, or cares about towing ability then the Rivian may be a better bet.

The internet is full of black and white, when in fact everything is shades of grey…

Once they are side by side, I think you will find few places where ICE shines. For example the Rivian CEO has said that the only reason the tow rating is as low as it is, is because the truck is traction limited on weight.

I wouldn’t say they made a mistake. I would have been a mistake to add it to all they are already doing. Call it a missed opportunity but they missed it chasing other opportunities.

Rivian was known to be doing a truck 4 years ago.
They did not sneak in.
And I have no doubt that Tesla will have a truck in production, by end of 21, if not 20.

In the real world BMW sales have increased worldwide and Musk has said that when the Pickup comes out it is likely to be quirky and not sell hugely.

Even if it does it’ll likely be a premium vehicle with a premium price tag, so TCO will be a lot higher than most ICE trucks for some time to come. If Tesla want to build their 10k trucks a week by 2022 they will already have the foundations in for the factory to do so.

And all that is completely ignoring the fact that Ford are pursuing both PHEV and BEV trucks, and will probably (along with most of the other manufacturers) have them available way before 2029.

If Ford waits until 2029 to release a BEV truck, it won’t be around.

In ten years all new trucks will be electric…

Amen to that.

Unlikely all, but a lot will probably be yes.

It will be a lot closer to all then to 372,000….

I would amend that to say Electric or Hybrid. For the off-roaders, it makes good sense to do a series hybrid.

I just finished reading “Autonomy” and I sure hope Waymo and/or Tesla get the self driving fleet going quick. We don’t need to replace needlessly profligate truck commuters with the “occasional use” paradigm driving purchasing decisions with electric versions of the same thing. I’d happily commute around in a small car and just “order/rent” occasional use of a proper electric SUV or pickup the several times per year I need it.

Article title: “Electric Truck Market Potential Is Massive”
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And without a doubt we are going to witness Ford & GM allow EV upstarts like Tesla and Rivian (if Rivian makes it to production) take the majority of that EV truck market share.

Many say that Ford and GM “brand loyalty” will prevent that from happening. Wrong… big time.

Brand loyalty gets tossed out when social media YouTube reviews start popping up showing how EV trucks are better than ICE trucks in almost every regard. Ford and GM saying they also will have an all-electric truck … in just a few years more… will not keep existing Ford and GM customer base from defecting.

Only Tesla has their own charging network. So when Tesla does launch a truck they will be ten years ahead of the competition.

No, the Rivian will launch with an excellent CCS network, courtesy of VW.

VW has no concept of courtesy. It’s due to a punishment for crimes that they have to build out the EA network, and that’s a slow-boat to China.
I hope you’re correct about Rivian, but once they get 10k or so trucks on the road, then, and only then, will I believe they can do as they propose.
Same for Lucid or any other startup pretenders to Tesla’s throne.

@Viking79 said: “…[Electrify America] excellent CCS network, courtesy of VW..”
—————

Today No… next year No… perhaps in a few years or longer Yes.

What do you mean? The Rivian isn’t shipping until 2021 or so, Phase 1 will be complete, and Phase 2 will be mostly complete as well. We know what Phase 1 is bringing, hundreds of well placed charging stations with many high power chargers.

Viking79 said: “…The Rivian isn’t shipping until 2021 or so, [Electrify America] Phase 1 will be complete, and Phase 2 will be mostly complete as well…”
————————

Hopefully by 2021 Electrify America does indeed have in place across America a robust convenient and reliable fast charge network for those occasional long distance trips. That would be a great.

But thus far Electrify America is behind schedule and Giovanni Palazzo (Electrify America’s chief executive) recently pointed out that building-out a national fast charge network is difficult, expensive, and takes time… saying “The funnel to build a charging station is extremely long”. Seems to me he is setting the table for increasing the time and cost needed to meet the the build-out plan. -source:
https://insideevs.com/exclusive-electrify-america-ev-charging/

I’d be supper happy to be wrong on this one.

From my personal experience with EAs stations, you are not wrong. Plugshare reviews are currently abysmal for allegedly “available” EA stations today.

Once a company has created the same exhilarating feel of driving found in an EV car inside a pickup, I don’t see how any ICE pickup continues to sell in any appreciable numbers. End game. The first time some douche-bag rollin’ coal who dumped a couple $grand into power chips, bolt-on exhaust, etc is utterly destroyed by an EV pickup towing up the mountainside, it’s over.

One thing that many folks don’t realize is that trains pull all those millions of pounds with electricity. Imagine the size of diesel or gasoline ICE needed to do the same. That’s why they don’t do it. As compelling as electric is to cars, the platform that was born for EV is the pickup truck.

” trains pull all those millions of pounds with electricity. Imagine the size of diesel or gasoline ICE needed to do the same.”

Diesel ICE would be exactly the same size, since diesel ICEs generate the electricity that pulls those trains.

You are completely right. The comment you reference was silly.

Not silly, if you understood I meant using the diesel generators as engines to pull a train without use of electric motors. Kinda like the size difference of the Rivians motors compared to a Powerstroke, Cummins, or Duramax.

No, it would not be exactly the same. Current diesel generators create electricity for the motors. Using the diesels as engines minus the electric motors is what I meant.

Despite the doom and gloom story many people here promote for current pickup truck makers, I don’t think Rivian and any other such vehicle will put a big dent in their sales until there is a significant breakthrough in battery tech (in both weight and price). That could be next year, but it could also be a decade away. We just don’t know.
What could produce significant disruption to the light duty truck and SUV market is a completely new alternative that drives people away from current designs (ICE or EV). Full size vans and station wagons were very popular in the 70’s and 80’s. Now sedans are falling to crossovers. Sales of full size pickups and SUVs that are driven by people as a status symbol are at serious risk to alternatives.
So Tesla, what is that BEV truck you are working on anyway?

I agree. Rivian/Tesla/etc will be niche players in the truck market with sales around 100k-200k. Ford and GM will be selling millions when they are available. Brand loyalty is strong no matter what posters above say.

Ford and GM can IF they start moving soon. If they wait until 2025, they will lose massive market share to the new comments.

If they wait longer, they will go out of business.

While brand loyalty may be a factor, cost will also be. Rivian has no intention of making $25-40k work trucks, and I doubt Tesla will have either.

That level of pickup is the bread and butter of the pickup world, and that is unlikely to change in the future. Contrary to the opinion of most on here, most pickups aren’t King Ranch/Denali trimmed city commuter mobiles, even if they are used in the city from time to time.

“I don’t think Rivian and any other such vehicle will put a big dent in their sales ”

I agree but I do recall a time when Apple with three percent market share had 90% of market profits. While EV trucks may not dent sales they could put the big hurt on profits.

This is really dependant on how expensive will batteries be 10 years from now. Tesla is approaching $100 per kwh now with their 2170 cells. I can easily see that in 10 years that being 1/2 or even 1/4 that cost. By then ICE would not even be a contender when it comes to cost and would have long bit the dust. At $25 per kwh, a 200 kwh battery is only $5K and $50 per kwh, it’s only $10K That means you can build a pretty nice truck for well under $40-50K…. something with better range and performance. ICE is toast.

There will clearly be a floor to the price of batteries – lots of material and processing.
We don’t know what that will be but I expect Tesla will see minor improvements going forward as they have already incorporated heavy automation to get to $100 per kWh – they are into the land of diminishing returns now.
The problem for Tesla customers is that they are still charging $360-$450/kWh for range upgrades. I guess when Tesla can figure out how to build the rest of the car for a reasonable price, they won’t have to charge so much for battery capacity.

There will be a floor, main factor being commodity prices but battery types will change. Just like current cells use Cobalt but a new battery exists without it, floor will lower.

Electric trucks need to cost $40,000 – 50,000, not $100,000 – 300,000.

Landscapers, farmers, construction workers and weekend warriors can’t afford $100,000 trucks.

I know I can’t. I’ll keep my old F-150, before I pay anywhere near that much.

Same here, it’s going to be a long time before my little S10 gets replaced by an EV pickup. The thing is so cheap to keep, it’s underpowered but it’s like driving a go kart with a 5 speed after being in my 18 wheeler every couple of weeks.