Electric Cars Sales Will Grow, But Electric Bus Sales To Outpace Cars
According to the latest report-forecast from Bloomberg New Energy Finance, plug-in electric cars will take the majority of sales (55% or 60 million units) by 2040.
In 2017, some 1.1 million were sold (at average battery cost of $209/kWh) and this year BNEF expects 1.6 million. Then, sales will increase to 30 million in 2030.
By 2040, one third of the global car fleet (33% or 595 million units) are expected to be plug-ins. A big part of the growth will be lowering the battery costs to $70/kWh by 2040, but price parity of BEV and ICE is expected by 2024.
All-electric buses, in terms of market share, are expected to grow even faster than electric cars – which sounds reasonable because buses usually have fixed routes and depots for overnight charging.
The biggest market for plug-in cars is China (50%) and that will not change by 2025, but then the Chinese share will decrease to 39% by 2030.
In case of lithium-ion battery production capacity – current output of up to 131 GWh will increase to 400 GWh by 2021 and 1,500 GWh by 2030.
Report: Electric Vehicle Outlook 2018
See the forecast previous year here.