Electric Cars Sales Will Grow, But Electric Bus Sales To Outpace Cars

Tesla Model 3

JUN 8 2018 BY MARK KANE 19

According to the latest report-forecast from Bloomberg New Energy Finance, plug-in electric cars will take the majority of sales (55% or 60 million units) by 2040.

BYD ADL Enviro200EV

In 2017, some 1.1 million were sold (at average battery cost of $209/kWh) and this year BNEF expects 1.6 million. Then, sales will increase to 30 million in 2030.

By 2040, one third of the global car fleet (33% or 595 million units) are expected to be plug-ins. A big part of the growth will be lowering the battery costs to $70/kWh by 2040, but price parity of BEV and ICE is expected by 2024.

Read Also – Survey – 82% Of Suppliers Think BEVs Will Be Primary Focus Post 2025

All-electric buses, in terms of market share, are expected to grow even faster than electric cars – which sounds reasonable because buses usually have fixed routes and depots for overnight charging.

The biggest market for plug-in cars is China (50%) and that will not change by 2025, but then the Chinese share will decrease to 39% by 2030.

In case of lithium-ion battery production capacity – current output of up to 131 GWh will increase to 400 GWh by 2021 and 1,500 GWh by 2030.

Report: Electric Vehicle Outlook 2018

Plug-in electric car sales forecast (source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance)

See the forecast previous year here.

Source: BNEF via Green Car Congress

Categories: Bus, General

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19 Comments on "Electric Cars Sales Will Grow, But Electric Bus Sales To Outpace Cars"

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mx9000

Because the efficiency increase and the predictability of Electric Power, this is a no-brainer. You’re city accountant will have a big smile on his/her face.

And then there’s the removal of a major source of city pollution.
Making Cities Great Again.

Miggy

Replacing a diesel bus with an electric bus has a huge impact for cities, far more than a car replacement.
The bus will transport hundreds of passengers every day and the diesel buses of today are big polluters in any city.

Dave

That is really true, when I visited Shenzhen China 10 years ago, compared to now, it is much cleaner air now, even though the city has grown in population 50% in a decade. EV buses, and EV taxis really make a difference in a big city…

ffbj

$70/kWh will be achieved long before 2040. Musk is saying it will $100 in 6 months or so.
It will probably be down to $70kWh by 2025.

Ted C

You are largely correct, but to clarify, those are probably battery pack numbers, not just the cells.

Musk predicts $100/kWh in 2020 for Tesla packs.

Mikael

55% plugins by 2040, ridiculous.

wavelet

Do you mean ridiculously low, or ridiculously high? Not at all clear.

Mikael

Ridicously low. Both China and Europe will be there before 2030. If Modi gets to stay in power on India then so will they.
And Elon will drag the kicking and screaming US manufacturers to at least half that.

Ted C

You are correct, but people are going to misunderstand (and downvote) you. More people in the US will say this is ridiculously high (incorrect) than ridiculously low (correct).

John

Electric buses- it’s happening…

I can’t IMAGINE having the downtown core of cities filled with quiet, non-polluting buses!! Can’t wait!

Dave

They are actually a bit noisy, at least the BYD are.. But non polluting is true enough.

Nicholas

Stanford has almost entirely BYDs, it was mostly the air brake noise which can be refined.

SJC

When you start with a small base an increase looks large. 100 units becomes 200, 100% increase.

Ron M

I wish they gave a projection of the number of electric buses not just saying market share of buses.

pjwood1

BYD’s are about 550KWh each, if that helps. The battery data are also sometimes delineated by transportation and other lithium uses. So, it’s still hard to tell how many buses, or much less oil, will be consumed by looking at global battery production in a vacuum (or for vacuums?)..

wavelet

Stupid prediction. It’s too far in the future (more than a human generation) for there to be any meaningful data on relevant factors. Every single projection by every single “expert consulting” agency (in finance or otherwise) that I’ve ever seen, and dealt with new tech was dead wrong, and it used to be my job to follow such “reports”.

Ted C

My prediction: electric trucks will take over their respective market niches even faster.

Nicholas

XL hybrids needs to do all electric full size fleet trucks.

Nicholas

Electric buses are obvious and save $500,000.00 per bus, per lifetime. The extra tech and emission savings are essentially free. Please speak with your transit district and city leaders and get them a demo unit.