Eagle AID: Electric Car Demand In Norway Is Oceans Apart From Rest Of Europe

Nissan Leaf in Norway

MAR 27 2014 BY MARK KANE 14

Eagle AID, which collects automotive industry data and provides some analysis, remains cold over electric vehicles in reports provided from time to time.

The latest report from Eagle AID is indicating that, in February, electric car sales in Western Europe grew year over year by approximately half, but if we exclude Norway, sales fell by almost 10%.

“Europe’s underlying electric car demand remains crippled by today’s still sky-high price for such cars, the lingering lack of a charging infrastructure and the crucial element of range anxiety in the minds of potential buyers. However, in Norway’s run-away electric car market most, if not all, of these blatant shortcomings are no longer an issue. In consequence, this February tiny Norway on its own soaked up close on half the electric cars registered in the whole of Western Europe.”

Nissan LEAF new registrations in Europe from January 2011 through January 2014

Nissan LEAF new registrations in Europe from January 2011 through January 2014

Norway itself consumes almost half of all EVs sold in Europe and just thanks to this relatively small country, EV sales in Europe are growing.

“Without Norway, which, thanks to its sky-high electric car subsidies and sweetheart electric car use regulations, still stands out as the only true paradise for electric car users on the planet, February’s electric car sales in Western Europe have actually dropped by close on 10 per cent.”

Indeed, Norway is growing quickly from just 334 units in February 2013 to 1,385 in February 2014 (and these numbers are just passenger cars without imported ones, which makes the distortion even wider).

“In contrast, February sales in both Germany and France are still dwarfed by Norway’s same month turnout.”

“February registrations in France slumped by more than a third to just 411 units, while same month registrations in Germany dropped almost 5 per cent to a trivial 481 units.”

For sure this data indicates that prices are still too high for mass market adoption and suggests that manufacturers must bring them down (without incentives) to the level of Norway after incentives. Then, EVs will be selling like hot cakes everywhere, but is such a price drop possible in the near future?

It should be noted that Norway’s incentives do have a fairly short shelf life as they only apply to the first 50,000 sales; of which just over half have been claimed.

Source: Eagle AID

Categories: General, Sales

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14 Comments on "Eagle AID: Electric Car Demand In Norway Is Oceans Apart From Rest Of Europe"

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Why did they build out Superchargers in Sweden first then? Sweden is covered nicely while Norway has none!

What are you talking about?

no no, sweden have not got a singel SC, norway is 80 % of the population coverd. sweden will gett SC this year.

EVs are always going to have the problem that people look at the short term. EVs are expensive up-front and have range limits. Their strength is that they cost next to nothing to fuel but I’d bet that most people don’t even know that. And the ones that do know it don’t appreciate it because people have such short-term views.

That is why razors are cheap but blades are expensive. Videogame consoles are cheap due to a subsidy but the console games include a ‘console tax’ that helps cover the low-cost of the videogame console. People won’t pay a higher price for a well-insulated home but they end up paying much more in heating costs over the long term. Etc.

EV makers tried to combat this with battery lease programs . . . but those are just too odd. How long is the lease? Do you eventually own the battery? What happens if you don’t pay the lease payment? Etc.

Based on the CA new CARB standards:

“CARB is including a regulation in the ZEV package that forces automakers to sell a minimum of 15% battery-electric vehicles by 2025”

This would mean Ford would need to sell about 27k plug-in vehicles in the CA market by 2025.

As of 2013 just over 43k plug-in vehicles were sold in CA by all auto manufacturers.

BUT….their out and why Toyota is not moving forward with plug-in vehicles, is that automakers who over-comply with the greenhouse gas standards presented in the LEV III regulations will recieve credits towards their electric vehicle mandates.

Which means offering more hybrids can offset underproduction of plug-in vehicles.

It’s 15.4% being BEV with 300 miles of range and battery-swap OR hydrogen fuel-cell. They don’t need to sell a single BEV.

By the way, just imagine if the government required that every cellular operator such as AT&T or Verizon must sell 15% of their phones as BlackBerry or Windows Phone — as opposed to Android or Apple. Government mandating what companies must sell never ends well.

Your analogy is obviously flawed.

In this case, the people of California have imposed a rule to correct an externality. This is an example of the state fixing a market failure.

Absolutely! +10

The government has every right to set any standards it likes for any product.

And thus came the clean air act. Was that a handout to palladium miners?

Where did they get their numbers from?

According to ev-sales.blogspot.nl the figures are as follows:
Germany Feb 13 = 332, Feb 14 = 649
France Feb 13 = 1005, Feb 14 = 666
Netherlands Feb 13 = 271, Feb 14 = 999

France down to 481? Germany -5% YoY? And another strong month for an important market: The Netherlands.

It all smacks of the usual negative reporting, it doesn’t make sense and they certainly ignore the market conditions. The e-Up and e-Golf are close to launching. Many people have postponed their purchase of an EV to await availability of these cars, especially in Germany. BMW is still in the process of ramping up deliveries for the i3. February 14 saw the release of the first batch of pre-reservations for the Zoe.

It’s all very negative, and without any context. Bad journalism.

Not sure if they count just BEV or all Plug-Ins in the numbers above (do they include PiP, Ampera, Outlander and Volvo V60?).

Also ev-sales.blogspot.nl has some estimated numbers for Smart, e-Up, V60 and Leaf in some cases like Germany.

Even if they do not count plug-in hybrids, their figures still don’t make sense.

They proclaim the German market decreased 5%, while Feb 2013 saw 332 registrations for all types and subtypes (EV and plug-in hybrids).

“…thanks to its sky-high electric car subsidies…”

How are the subsidies sky high?

In Norway the price difference between evs and ices is not because the evs cost less, but the ices cost more.

It is something I would love to see implemented globally, but this is not a subsidy for evs.

so, if we exclude Norway, sales fall 10%. And what if we exclude France? Sales almost double! If we just exclude those two countries, sales are up by some 30%, with record sales in Denmark, Belgium and Ireland.
AID has a biased view of things and there’s nothing wrong with it, as long as they assume it. Which they don’t.