EIA Predicts Plug-In Purchases to Pop to 2% by 2040
The US Energy Information Agency has projected that plug-in vehicles sales will reach 2% of overall Light Duty Vehicle (LDV) sales by 2040. If overall LDV sales were to hold constant, this would amount to about 290,000 annual plug-in sales by 2040 (at today’s annualized rate). I’m not sure how one even makes a prediction of such a thing 26 years out, and keeps a straight face, but there it is.
For those like myself who have so little to do that annual sales of plug-ins are dancing around in our heads like sugar plum fairies, this prediction strikes as being a touch low.
Taking the growth from 2012-2013 of plug-in sales and projecting it out, one can see in the chart below that plug-ins will reach 290,000 annual sales some time between 2017-2018. Of course, it is highly unlikely that sales will grow by exactly 44,000 each year. I feel quite certain in saying that the number will be either higher or lower than that.
Also note, that 2017-2018 is when the cumulative sales of plug-ins will reach 1 million cars. Obama will have missed his 2015 target by 2 or 3 years. We’ll leave it to Fox and CNN to hash out whether this is abject failure or success or just maybe something in between.
Current Plug-In Growth Rate Extrapolated (linear growth model)