According To Edmunds, Tesla Could Make 2018 The Greenest Year To Date

1 month ago by EVANNEX 22

Tesla Model 3

In 2018, the Tesla Model 3 may be the first car to top the Toyota Prius as the best-selling green car. (Image Credit: Tom Moloughney/InsideEVs)


It’s been argued 2017 marked the beginning of the end of the internal combustion engine. Could 2018 deliver a significant upsurge in vehicle electrification? It turns out that Dealer Marketing Magazine reports, “2018 is looking to be the greenest year yet for the auto market, according to new data from Edmunds, the leading car shopping and information platform.”

*This article comes to us courtesy of EVANNEX (which also makes aftermarket Tesla accessories). Authored by Matt Pressman.


In their report, Edmunds acknowledges that much of 2018’s growth forecasted for the green car segment is contingent on Elon Musk and Tesla (Source: Edmunds)

What kind of growth does Edmunds forecast? “Edmunds analysts project that overall market share for green vehicles (EVs, plug-ins, and traditional hybrids) will reach 4.4% in 2018, compared to an estimated 3.2% in 2017. Edmunds also predicts sales of plug-in vehicles will double in 2018 as compared to 2017, outselling traditional hybrids by the end of next year.”


In 2018, green car market share should reach a record 4.4% while sales of plug-ins are expected to double (Source: Edmunds)

Much of this growth is predicated on Tesla speeding up their Model 3 production ramp next year. However, Edmunds executive director of industry analysis, Jessica Caldwell, admits: “Even if Tesla doesn’t meet its full production commitments for the Model 3 until midsummer, 2018 will still be a hallmark year for green vehicles. The price of batteries is coming down, EV range is rising, and shoppers will have more choices than ever.”


If Model 3 production reaches full strength, Model 3 will allow Tesla to unseat Toyota’s Prius as best-selling green car for the first time ever (Source: Edmunds)

According to Edmunds analysis, “by the end of the year, cars with plugs will outsell traditional hybrids.” However, Caldwell notes that the EV tax credit phase-out could have an impact. She explains, “the lower end of the EV market will feel pressure once federal tax credits start to wane toward the latter half of the year, which will give the first indication of how ready the segment is to stand on its own.”


Next year, Tesla will likely be the first automaker to begin the EV tax credit phase-out (Source: Edmunds)

Next year, Tesla will likely be the first automaker to begin the EV tax credit phase-out (Source: Edmunds)

Looking ahead, vehicle electrification coupled with self-driving capabilities will become increasingly prominent in the coming years. Caldwell concludes that “the rise in green car sales is really just a precursor to what OEMs have in the works for the autonomous vehicles promised for 2019 and 2020. 2018 will be a year of right-sizing for the present while putting some of the critical building blocks in place for the future.”


Source: Dealer Marketing Magazine via Edmunds

*Editor’s Note: EVANNEX, which also sells aftermarket gear for Teslas, has kindly allowed us to share some of its content with our readers. Our thanks go out to EVANNEX, Check out the site here.

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22 responses to "According To Edmunds, Tesla Could Make 2018 The Greenest Year To Date"

  1. KevinZ says:

    I wonder how much additional fossil fuel was used to get us to this point?

    1. says:

      Additional compared to what? Economies don’t grow on fairy dust.

      1. Ziv says:

        Natural gas and petroleum products like gasoline and diesel fuel are incredible products. Energy dense and relatively cheap, they enabled much of the wealth we take for granted now. The additional external costs of using them are real, but they are still an incredible gift to humanity. It is hard to imagine how backwards humanity would be now if there had been no use of fossil fuels over the past couple centuries.
        As I light a whale oil lamp to brighten my dark and bitterly cold hovel…. 😉

  2. ffbj says:

    They may make 100k-200k which is just a year off from Musk’s original claim.

  3. ffbj says:

    “Major navigation overhaul coming in early 2018. Will be light-years ahead of current system, but we are testing it rigorously before rolling out”.–EM

  4. trackdaze says:

    Underplaying nissan leafs potential.

    1. Doggydogworld says:

      Lastgen Leaf was massively discounted the past few years. 2018 is an upgrade, but the market has moved, too. Has Nissan actually caught up, or will the 2018 be in the same boat as the 2016 was?

      1. Roy_H says:

        The reviews look good, I think this will be a banner year for the LEAF.

        1. says:

          It will depend on Nissan and its network of dealers….at least in US. The initial lease deal is underwhelming to say the least and if they stick to it for too long you can forget about any optimistic forecast on the Leaf2.

          1. Ziv says:

            I think that the Leaf will be a bigger hit outside the US than it will be here. But it should have a decent run here as well.
            Maybe 25-30,000 Leafs sold in the US in 2018? 50-60,000 outside the USA?

  5. L'amata says:

    The beginning of the End of the “ICE” car.. As my Jewish friend would say., “from your Lips To God’s Ears”….Wouldn’t that be Nice!

  6. Ocean Railroader says:

    If I see Tesla make 20,000 Model 3’s

    I’ll see it when I believe it

    Granted I think she would ask what makes Tesla so special

    1. G2 says:

      Setting the bar *that* low?

  7. jose gonzalez says:

    leaf might be #1 in 2018

    1. floydboy says:


  8. Six Electrics says:

    “Driven by China.”

    There, fixed that for you.

    1. says:

      You should know by now that nothing you touch ever gets fixed.

    2. Another Euro point of view says:

      Indeed, our perception is limited to information we get. As most of us read EV news in English only we tend to only see the tip of the iceberg. Just one example, from a commenter in Tesla forum (not an article) I got to know by accident that Chinese city of shenzhen just completed its transition from diesel to electric buses (public transportation), that is 16’000 electric buses. For only ONE Chinese city. However news we get constantly are that UPS or Pepsi made reservation for 100 or 125 Tesla semi, which is of course not material at all as opposed to 16’000 electric buses now (not in 2020). Now one can only sell news that people want to read. To rub North Americans and Euro noses in their own growing insignificance in EV revolution won’t sell well, it is nevertheless the fast growing elephant in the room.

      1. philip d says:

        It’s true. That is the one of the very few advantages to having a centralized government. When they are actually correct on a decision it happens very quickly.

        But then there are all the times they are wrong and make decisions based on corruption or whims of unelected officials.

  9. Pushmi-Pullyu says:

    “Even if Tesla doesn’t meet its full production commitments for the Model 3 until midsummer, 2018 will still be a hallmark year for green vehicles. The price of batteries is coming down, EV range is rising, and shoppers will have more choices than ever.”

    Indeed. Hooray!

    Up the EV revolution!

  10. Another Euro point of view says:

    My estimation for 2018 BEV sales:

    Tesla Model 3: 100K to 150K (with losses)

    Nissan Leaf 2: 100K to 150K (with profits)

    Some reasonably sized and performing Chinese BEV we Caucasians rather choose to ignore so we can sooth ourselves in our present view of the world : 150K – 200K (with profits, probably BAIC EC-Series)

    1. floydboy says:

      Completely disagree with that assessment. I expect that Tesla’s tight manufacturing loop, will make the Model 3 FAR more profitable on a per vehicle basis than any other non or near luxury BEV

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