Demand For Tesla Model 3 Strong Into 2019 & Beyond

DEC 27 2018 BY MARK KANE 19

Tesla’s perspectives are good thanks to the Model 3 ramp-up

According to Wedbush Securities analyst Dan Ives, the demand for Tesla Model 3  “looks very strong into 2019 and beyond.”

If the volume will keep growing and margins remain high, which can be done thanks to selling top versions in new markets like Europe and Asia, Tesla will be able to prosper without the risk to raise capital again in the near future.

Of course, Tesla could raise some more cash, but not because it has to (being finally profitable), but to accelerate the expansion and launch of new products. It’s a good question whether external cash will be needed to launch the Model Y and Pickup, as the Semi and Roadster will be probably less capital intensive.

“Demand for the car is likely to reduce the risk Tesla will have to raise capital again in the near future, Ives said. Tesla’s capital needs have been an ongoing issue for the company, and Tesla has had to return to the markets several times since it went public in 2010. Ives said he expects Tesla to spend $2.2 billion to $2.3 billion in 2019.”

Anyways, Wedbush Securities targets Tesla stocks price at $440 compared to around $326 today.

Source: CNBC

Categories: Tesla

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19 Comments on "Demand For Tesla Model 3 Strong Into 2019 & Beyond"

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To the future and beyond? Yes it seems to be the bandwagon that almost everyone is jumping on. The days of early adoption are drawing to a close and now we are going more into the main stream phase. The Model 3 is the spearhead of the ev revolution, as it’s mass production in a more affordable package. The short sellers claims of limited demand seem nonsensical at this point.

I think the model 3 will eventually be in the top 25 of cars sold, over 10 million cars all time to get on that list and they took many years to reach that mark, I think Tesla model 3 will do that in 18 years or so.

True, and the SR model 3 with fast charging will help spell the demise of ice and hybrids in a remarkable time frame.

The Tesla Model 3 is already the 16th best selling vehicles of any type in the United States. This is as of November 2018. It will be between 5-10 years before it dominates the North American, European, and Chinese markets.

http://www.goodcarbadcar.net/2018/12/november-2018-the-best-selling-vehicles-in-america-every-vehicle-ranked/

That assumes the market is static and no new vehicles are released at best. The Model 3 is a premium sedan so the market isn’t the biggest for it.

Realistically it’s probably not going to sell many more than it’s doing right now (in the US), and sales may fall in future due to the Model Y and directly competing EV sedans from other manufacturers coming to the market in future.

It’ll continue to be a good selling vehicle, but it’s in every ones interest for it not to dominate all the markets in the future, because that would suggest there are no other decent EV’s coming…

Your comments assume that the EV market segment is a zero-sum game, and that future EV’s from other companies will cut into Tesla sales instead of cutting into existing ICE car sales. In reality we are seeing exactly the opposite.

Future decent EV’s will be ICE-killers cutting into each brand’s existing ICE sales, not Tesla-killers. Tesla will only continue to benefit from the expansion of the overall EV market. The LICE builders have even publicly talked about this.

Speaking of people living in the past…

Tesla’s sales will increase by more than 200% in 2018! Tesla will have sold more than three times as many cars in 2018 as they did in 2017.

The only reason the same won’t happen in 2019 is that Tesla’s one and only auto assembly plant, in Fremont, is about maxed out.

The EV revolution is only now at the bottom-most, slowest part of the “S-curve” of adoption of the new tech. Growth over the next several years will continue to accumulate. Tesla’s potential for market growth is astonishingly large, much larger than for any other auto maker in the world.

You can continue to waste time parroting your anti-Tesla pravduh, but it’s going to have as much effect as trying to swim upstream against a rising current (pun very much intended!).

More importantly, the EVs will kill off ICE sales. As I have been saying end of 2022, possibly 2023, for EVs to be the majority sales of the passenger vehicle (minus the trucks) market (well, at least in America, Europe, maybe S. korea).

U do realize that next year, they will manufacture double this amount just in GF1? How much is sold in America will be a different issue.
Right now, they are supply limited and next year, they will not have that issue. By July 4th, they expect to make 10,000 / week, which will mean 520,000 / year.

Telsa needs still…
1. Drop the mandatory $5K PUP…
2. Allow the 3 to be leased…
3. Release the $35K version…

A good lease will definitely take care of any potential drop in orders in US.

there is no potential drop in US orders.

Tesla needs to open a 2nd assembly plant for any of that to make business sense… with hopefully a 3rd assembly plant soon to follow! Currently, production is struggling to keep up with demand, and with shipments to Europe starting…

They can add lines elsewhere, such as GF1.

He says 7000 per week. Bloomberg has it around 4000 M3 per week with ~52,000 this quarter. Where are the other 3000 cars? Are major shipments going to Europe and Canada now? I’d also like to know what the reservation health is in the US – does it even matter anymore? The old reservations may be still holding out for the $35,000 version.

Bloomberg’s weekly rate is useless.

This guy’s 6500-7000/week isn’t much better.

Bloomberg has the total sales for the quarter, and before they were pretty accurate. Weekly used to have big ups and downs, but they are using a sliding window average now and I guess it’s much more accurate.
I believe model 3 will be around 55k in the US for this quarter, did they make a lot of cars for other markets? I don’t know, if they did and they were not sold yet, profits will eventually return to losses (and I don’t think they made many cars for other markets).

Bloomberg tracks production, not sales. The difference between Tesla’s production and its sales varies a lot from month to month.

Bloomberg’s production estimator (mis-named a “Tracker”) has only gotten even less accurate over time. In my opinion, it’s not even worth the electrons used to light up the website anymore. It’s certainly no longer a credible authority, if it ever was.

I think Q1, maybe Q2 sales in the US will be a good indicator of steady long term model 3 sales. Current sales are distorted by the end of full tax credit and big backlog. How distorted are they is the big question.
If model 3 keep sales in the US over 30k/quarter is great, below 10k/quarter a bit shaky.

The 1 millionth Tesla Model 3 delivery milestone will take place in 2021.