Cumulative Tesla Model 3 Production Estimate Exceeds 160,000

JAN 10 2019 BY MARK KANE 18

Roughly 160,000 Model 3 have been already made

Tesla has reached another significant mark of 160,000 Tesla Model 3 produced cumulatively, according to Bloomberg’s Tesla Model 3 Tracker.

The counter indicates 160,714 Model 3 produced, but the current average rate of production remains below 5,000 per week (4,577 per week).

The number consists of officially announced production results in previous quarters and estimated production rates in the current quarter.

So far this year, Tesla registered almost 10,000 new VIN numbers for the European market, out of over 14,000 total new VINs, which heralds an upcoming shift in production. The total number of VINs is 208,440.

Production and deliveries of Model 3 in previous quarters thus far:

  • 2017’Q3 – 260 produced, and 222 delivered
  • 2017’Q4 – 2,425 produced and 1,542 delivered
  • 2018’Q1 – 9,766 produced and 8,182 delivered
  • 2018’Q2 – 28,578 produced and 18,449 delivered
  • 2018’Q3 – 53,239 produced and 56,065 delivered
  • 2018’Q4 – 61,394 produced and 63,150 delivered
  • 2019’Q1 – already 5,052 produced (estimated)

Source: Tesla Model 3 TrackerModel 3 VINs

Categories: Tesla

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18 Comments on "Cumulative Tesla Model 3 Production Estimate Exceeds 160,000"

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Bob Lutz! We’re anxiously waiting for your next pronouncement on how Tesla will fail.

Seems like a bit of a pointless article… 160K isn’t really all that clean a milestone. May as well just wait the 9 weeks or less until it says 200K, or until the weekly production reaches a milestone (maybe the Bloomberg tracker finally saying 5K?)

My understanding (http://disq.us/p/1yimg0w) is the production rate on battery packs has been 6k/week since mid November and they are in process of accelerating up to 7k/week. I don’t think they would be making that many packs if they weren’t also making that many cars.

Where would all those cars be then because they haven’t been delivered to customers? 😉

What, like the almost 25,000 they sold in US December with over 3,000 left (0.5 weeks) in inventory? Plus whatever they sold in Canada. If they start shipping 3,000 a week to Europe that would leave 3,000 or 4,000 here in North America.

They ended Q4 with 7000 unsold Model 3s in inventory plus 1000 in transit to customers. The unsold inventory includes a few hundred showroom and test drive cars.

Good question. My wild guess would be shifting lines to build EU models then building inventory for shipping to EU.

I wonder how long it will take for Tesla to get to 10k TM3’s, and then 15k per week?
6-7k per week is a huge achievement but once 3’s are selling in Europe 7k wkly is going to fall way short of demand. 7k wk is short of US demand, all by itself.

Tesla stated Freemont is maxed out at 500k/yr for the Model 3. 15k/wk will have to wait until China comes online.

I think it will be fine supply until they ship Model 3 standard. I suspect US is ready for cheaper models soon and demand might be saturated for the higher end models. I suspect Model 3 standard will ship next July or so to ensure they have year over year sales growth. I suspect they will have to up production for the Model 3 standard whenever it ships.

Asia will be taken care of by Shanghai Gigafactory for 3 and Y, so that added demand won’t have to be factored into US production, but could be up to 10k per week or so after a few years.

Tesla’s most recent 10-Q filing clearly says they plan to make 7000 Model 3s per week in Fremont and another 3000/week in Shanghai. They removed all mention of 10k/week in Fremont. They don’t give timelines, but it’s pretty clear they won’t reach 3000/week in Shanghai until 2020, possibly mid-year, so unless plans change Fremont will max out at 7000/week.

” 7k wk is short of US demand, all by itself.”

US demand for current Model 3 versions looks to be about 1500/week. That will increase with lower cost versions, but almost certainly not to 7k/week (after the initial burst).

packs are also going to battery storage business no only vehicles.

The majority of them are US/North America based, now that they appear to be shifting to global production it may be a little bit until we hear about US/North America sales…

Just move on if you don’t see the point. IMHO it’s less pointless than some other articles we see here occasionally…

Bob Lutz has not said much about Tesla lately. Tesla has it problems, but Bob always makes claims that are far outside reality if you look at Tesla sales and the demand for their cars.

Speaking of claims that are far outside reality, Elon said that Tesla would build 500,000 vehicles in 2018 and 1,000,000 vehicles in 2020. Elon didn’t even come close with his 2018 prediction, but still has a chance to achieve his 2020 prediction. Good luck to him.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-tesla-results/tesla-puts-pedal-to-the-metal-500000-cars-planned-in-2018-idUSKCN0XV2JL

That article was incorrect. Tesla said they would reach a 500k run rate by the end of 2018. In Q4 they built cars at a 345k/year rate. Not 500k, but not that far off.

PS. At other times Tesla said they would hit a 500k/year run rate just for Model 3. They came in at 245k/year in Q4, about half that goal.

It surprises me when they mention production numbers here and ignore the new factory in China. We should keep an eye on how many factories they will make nw not on the VINs.