Cumulative Production Of Tesla Model 3 Crosses 30,000

MAY 22 2018 BY MARK KANE 33

Since the summer of 2017, Tesla produced more than 30,000 Model 3, according to the latest estimations by Bloomberg.

The Tesla Model 3 Tracker indicates (as of May 21) 30,343 units produced and a production rate of 3,566 weekly (a new high).

Read Also – Tesla Model 3 Dual Motor And Performance Versions Revealed

Separately, the number of VIN registrations is approaching 44,000.

Production and deliveries of the Model 3 in previous quarters so far:

  • 2017’Q3 – 260 produced, and 222 delivered
  • 2017’Q4 – 2,425 produced and 1,542 delivered
  • 2018’Q1 – 9,766 produced and 8,182 delivered
  • 2018’Q2- already >17,000 produced with around 40 days until the end of the quarter

Related – Tesla Q1 Production Soars To New High Of 34,494 – 9,766 Model 3

Tesla Model 3 Tracker (Source: Bloomberg)

Source: Bloomberg

Categories: Tesla

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33 Comments on "Cumulative Production Of Tesla Model 3 Crosses 30,000"

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Looks like the “S-Curve” is developing well, if not as fast as Elon 1st thought it would!

Excellent and I look forward to plenty of nice used Model 3s to choose from in 3-5 years when it is time for me to consider replacing my 2014 Volt.

In about 48-50 months, the Model 3 should be widely available on the preowned/used market.

Hopefully by then, there will be some low mileage, and well maintained TM 3s, in and around the $25k price range.

You’re dreaming.

I truly wonder about that. I know it’s in human nature to want the shiniest and newest, but you kinda get that with OTA updates. My Model S is not the same car it was when I first bought it; it’s better. I can imagine people will tend to hold onto a Model 3 longer than they typically would any other car that changes by model year.

That said, I’m trading in my Dec 2015 Model S 70D for an AWD Model 3 first chance I get. Not only is it a demonstrably better car by many metrics, but it’s the car I would have gotten in the first place if they were both available that day.

Why 48-50 months? Tesla hasn’t rolled out their lease program for the Model 3 yet. Are you just going on median time first owners keep their cars? (currently 4-5 years in the US).

I agree that prices will be attractive in the used market. I expect 4-5 years from now that there will be 3rd generation EV’s that used EV’s from all car makers will have to compete against.

Unless the autonomous Tesla-Sharing-Fleet-Feature generates each owner a ton of money. In that case it should result in no used market worth speaking of…

Maximum Stomping initiated! 3500 a week at a retail price of $48,000 means Tesla is earning off the Model III alone $168,000,000 a week. At 20% GP, that’s $33,600,000 in weekly profits, or $436,800,000 in quarterly profits from units sold.

The introduction of the dual motor and performance version should even out the GP percentage impact of the short range base model for the vehicle averages. Can’t hardly wait to see them hit 5,000 a week. Go, robots, go!

“2018’Q2- already >17,000 produced with around 40 days until the end of the quarter”

So what does this say about the total number of Tesla Model 3 deliveries in the US in Q2 2018?

Probably more than 24,000 Tesla Model 3 deliveries in the US in Q2 2018?

And what would that say about the timing of the delivery of the 200,000 Tesla EV in the US? Probably in Q2, right?

It says we have no idea until we find out how many:

1) Get delivered to Canada (they have already begun)
2) How many are held until July (people have already been notified that their June deliveries have been delayed until July).

It would be great if 1+2 would be enough to deliver the 200,000th Tesla EV in the US in July instead of June.

It’s going to be a very close finish anyway.

I think tesla will delay the 200,000 delivery until July 1. On the Canadian model 3 owners club forums there is talk about a ‘massive’ delivery of model 3 in June. (In the 1000s). Apparently tesla has rented a convention centre near Toronto to manage this.

A few thousand Tesla Model 3 deliveries to Canada in June will certainly be helpful to achieve that goal.

Interesting weeks ahead.

That seems to be the “International Crnter”, near the International Airport, where they had a big Model S & Model X delivery push on last time, so, quites likely! Ontario’s push, because the Provincial Election, in early June, with a risk of a change in Political Parties, and with that, a loss of the $14,000 Rebates! Quebec, besides their new this year Carb-Like ZEV policies for auto makers, and not dropping (yet, that I have so far heard of) Max Rebate of $8,000 for Model S & Model X, unlike Ontario, that set the new limits at $75,000 Canadian $, suddenly, effectively killing rebates fir the larger and more expensive Tesla’s, that start in the $90K+ space! Tesla may have done a similar space rental in Quebec, for a push, also! B.C. seems to also still have the full $5,000 rebate in place, with no price limit exclusion, which would also Benefit Tesla Buyers there! Model S sales, Model X Sales, as well as Model 3 sales, are decently supported by a good B.C. Supercharger Network, too! (It could use improvement North of Hope, up the Fraser Canyon, and on to Prince George, & Prince Rupert, though!) I would like… Read more »

I wonder how long it will be before total Model 3 sales eclipse the total LIFETIME U.S. sales (for ALL years) of any given EV or PHEV. I know it has already eclipsed a number of the lower volume EVs, and other recently introduced EVs. Heck, pretty soon it looks like it will eclipse total Bolt EV sales. Pretty impressive overall.

Just how many Bolts were produced in the first year?

20649 for the first 12 months according to insideEV


So the Model 3 sales numbers will shortly lap that of the Bolt.

Its no wonder that Mental MsdBro is getting so much angst.

Thats the USA number, what about Canada, and Europe with the Ampera-e, and there were also a few in South Korea, as that is where Bjorn Nyland first tested the Bolt

So, already more Bolts than we’ll see this year. Impressive!

Canada, with Ontario’s Rebate Situation, of $14,000; would have been particularly well suited for more Canadian Bolt EV sales, instead of the Up to a year wait, if ordering one today, like we now seem to have! And Quebec’s $8,000 Rebate + New ZEV Policies, should have driven up Canadian Bolt EV Sales, too! But GM would rather Overstock California, than simply truck a few more just a few hours away, to Ontario & Quebec!

Yeah? Where are they? According to my count based on InsideEVs numbers there have only been about 14,000 Model 3s delivered by the end of April.

Did Tesla double the total number of Model 3s in a single month? Are any of the Model 3s going out of the country? Or is this just another Tesla spin on the truth?

If this information is true then Model 3 production will have to go from 3875 in April to over 16,000 in May. Based on Tesla past performance I am skeptical that they will get anywhere close to that number. But, I guess we will find out next week if this is truth or spin.

I would also like to point out that Tesla achieved 185,701 sales by the end on April. If Tesla did somehow miraculously produce and sell 16,000 Model 3s in May then they have already reach the 200,000 production mark. And the clock is ticking.

This is production, not deliveries. It’s also based on Bloomberg’s tracker, which isn’t 100 percent accurate. It’s production estimates based on VINs without accounting for any shutdowns.

Estimates based on VINs??? So these are not real cars, they are just numbers in somebody’s tracker. Get back to me when these numbers become real cars.

Bloomberg has this system of tracking VINs from NHTSA and also real-world. It uses an algorithm and gets production numbers pretty close. Since Tesla doesn’t divulge delivery numbers, we have to estimate those. In terms of production, Tesla shares after every quarter. While the Bloomberg tracker isn’t perfect, the consensus out there is that it’s about the closest estimator available at this time. Thus far, it has been quite accurate over the long term.

My point was, we track U.S. sales, which are vastly different from production numbers.

Hi Stephen. Actually, Bloomberg’s tracker is not the best tool on the web. I’ve found the Model 3 Invites spreadsheet (as found on the Model 3 Owner’s Club forum) to be more accurate (at 98.4% for Q1) and with far more available data points. It’s a Google spreadsheet so it updates in real time and there’s thousands of reservation holders and owners who’ve submited their Model 3 information, so the dataset is robust. It’s quite fun to get lost among the pretty charts and graphs and I’ve found it easier to analyze trends. For instance, after looking at all the data the spreadsheet offers, with its multiple tabs, I’ve become quite confident that Tesla is trying their absolute best to prevent the 200,000 tax credit limit from being triggered until early Q3. Everything the spreadsheet shows points to it, from the current Canadian-centric deliveries to the well-timed shutdown to the way the AWD rollout will occur (for instance, most Canadians will be able to order in mid-year, but most Americans, including even half of Tesla owners, won’t get it until late-year). So too have delivery estimates for current orders increased (despite long-term delivery times for reservations holders having just… Read more »

Much agreed. We use the spreadsheet as well, and also for the Model S and X. They’re outstanding. I should have been more specific to say that for the average Joe, the Bloomberg tracker (which I don’t believe is fully going about the process in the best way possible) is a quick and easy way to see daily numbers that are somewhat close to reality. While there are many people that will pore over spreadsheets and get really into the data (like you and me), some people want a quick fix. At first, the tracker seemed like it was going to be useless and way off. But, it’s doing a fair job.

With all of that being said, again, the Google spreadsheet is exceptional. In terms of deliveries, things still get pretty tricky, and people call us out thinking that Tesla should have been able to deliver every single car it produced in no time at all. This is simply not that case, as you well know. It’s going to get very interesting as it all continues to unfold. Take care, and thanks again!

The Bloomberg model is poor at tracking weekly numbers, and they don’t care at all where the cars are sold. But their model has one value: Predicting quarterly totals a few days or weeks before Tesla officially announces the official numbers.

If you are trying to trade TSLA ahead of the official numbers at the end of a quarter, this is an accurate estimate. It self-corrects over time with a feedback loop each week that adjusts for inaccurate prior weekly numbers. That makes that week’s numbers less accurate, but keeps the running total more accurate. And by the end of a quarter it comes up with a good quarterly estimate.

I think they have to be close to 30K now, or at least before the shutdown.


Picking mine up June 1st, can’t wait!