Citron Research Says Tesla Will Rebound From Stock Fall


Believes critics are “over their skis.”

The world of investment can be a strange place. That’s especially true when it comes to Tesla. Former bullish (positive) positions can turn bearish (negative). Former bearish positions become bullish. That’s the case in this particular instance.

After years of being steadfastly and wrongly sure that Tesla would fail and making moves to profit when that happened, Citron Research famously reversed course last October. Now, almost six months later, with the share price up only moderately from when it changed its tune, the outfit is sticking to its positive guns. In a note (PDF) on Friday, it communicated its continued confidence, saying it believes the stock will rebound to $320. It sits at $288.43, up $4.29 (1.51%) today as of this writing.

The report defends its position by pointing out that, in spite of a tremendous amount of negative noise from those holding short positions of the stock — meaning they are betting on it going down in value — the automaker continues to move forward. It specifically mentions the company has secured $500 million in financing for the Gigafactory 3 under construction in Shanghai.

Now, this doesn’t strike us as a bold prediction. We admit we are not investment professionals (please seek guidance from one before investing), but we’ve seen the volatile stock rise far above this position a number of times in the past and strongly suspect it will do so again. With the reveal of the Tesla Model Y happening this Thursday, it’s possible an announcement of a large number of pre-orders for the all-electric crossover will push it over this figure. Of course, if it falls flat for some reason, it’s also possible the stock could plumb new lows.

In its note, Citron Research reminds us that it doesn’t look at the automaker through rose-colored glasses. It is still a lead plaintiff in a lawsuit surrounding the 420 tweet and predicts that Elon Musk will not be the company CEO 10 years from now. Despite that, it maintains the loud bears are “over their skis,” and points out that the most vocal don’t have strong track records of late.

Source: Citron Research

Categories: Tesla

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25 Comments on "Citron Research Says Tesla Will Rebound From Stock Fall"

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I mentioned Andrew Left said this today on another article on Inside EV.
Several people then said Andrew Left changed from a short seller to bullish 6 months ago.
I take it Lefts investors are tired of losing money.

Amazing Jim Chanos is ONLY down 9%.

Hedge fund manager Einhorn explains why he lost more than 30% last year: ‘Nothing went right’.

source http://www.cnbc. com/2019/01/23/hedge-fund-manager-einhorn-explains-why-he-lost-more-than-30percent-last-year-nothing-went-right


@987StopCanabilism said: “Amazing Jim Chanos is ONLY down 9%.”

More than that when taking into account the written off (covered) losses.

This is in a market that has been making gains for several years. So they are making a loss where the great majority of the investment community is making decent gains. There will be pressure to perform in following years.

Hey look, yet another “analyst” made a prediction.. based on….

Actually when a short turns bullish i pay attention, it is never easy to admit you are wrong. They seem to be receiving a lot of flack from the community. So there is a incentive to continue on the same path and double down, like we have seen from lot’s of Tesla critics. If a staunch supporter would turn negative i also would pay attention, all the rest i ignore.

Elon Musk won’t be the CEO in ten years? That’s an incredibly weak prediction… Musk will be quite wealthy and well past ready to shift his full attention to other projects by then. Plus if it somehow doesn’t pan out and he is still the CEO, it’ll be ten years later and nobody will remember this dull prediction.

Unlike Tesla Death Watch, which is over a decade old and still mocked.

Musk may be walking on Mars in 10 year’s.

Definitely on Mars by then perhaps as a living breathing walking human or a rather unfortunate pap smear from a failed landing. Either way I’d call it a success.

Yes, I roundly condemned Citron when they said in May of 2017 that Tesla would be worth less than $100/share by the end of the year. Now I roundly commend them for their turnaround, but it’s pretty obvious, despite missteps by Musk, ‘Da Bears are once again far more impressed with their own brilliance, that does not really shine so brightly except in the company of many other dim bulbs.
As far the prediction about Musk leaving the company, Musk himself has indicated he will only be there for sure for another 5 years, so that’s not really going out on a limb to say he will be gone in 10.

“Musk himself has indicated he will only be there for sure for another 5 years…”

Thanks, that’s just what I was gonna say.

It’s a travesty that so-called “analysts” get paid money for stating the painfully obvious. 🙄

There is universal consensus that automotive is transitioning to all-electric… only real debate is at what rate the transition happens.

A 3 years look-back of Tesla’s sales performance on INSIDEEVs PlugIn Sales Scorecard illustrates that Tesla is increasingly the dominant EV market share player. Tesla is also increasingly dominating Western Europe EV market share.

Tesla’s profitability has continued to trend towards improvement… likely soon reaching sustained profitability.

Tesla Giga China has broken ground.

Model 3 base now avail at the promised $35k.

Model Y reveal in a few days and Tesla Truck to follow later this year.

Tesla Supercharger Network rapidly expanding and upgrading to v3. Tesla will clearly have a substantial fast charge network advantage for several more years.

Tesla has an extremely loyal customer base.

… seems to me it’s not much a stretch to be Tesla bullish.

,.. and a long Lutz stretch to be Tesla bearish.

All of this is pretty much already priced in in the stock value, though… Aside from the $TSLAQ whackos, the bearish argument is simply that future growth won’t be quite as good as bulls expect.

All this TSLA-FUD looks like panic on the part of Tesla shorts as well as those that have huge positions to unwind on legacy auto makers and their polluting parters.

What it makes me think is they made the money they wanted to short by working hard to manipulate the price down to a good buying point, then they go long and manipulate it to go up. Typical.

I figured Left would flip TSLA after the good Q3 report then turn bearish again. Looks like he forgot to get out, ha.

Left is still bullish and goofball Uber-but Trip Chowdhry says Tesla will only deliver a disastrous 30k Model 3s this quarter. What’s the world coming to?

52 Week Range on TSLA stocks is 244.59 – 387.46

320 is roughly the midpoint in the 52 week range.

Predicting a volatile stock will return to the midpoint at some unnamed date isn’t exactly controversial.

No, but if it does it in a week, from current levels, then that would be impressive. Especially if it continues to climb, which, with continued good news it will.

When you think about exciting car companies with ground breaking products, most people in the automotive world would single out Tesla, even if some do so grudgingly. We all know that Tesla is pointing the way to the future of the automotive industry.

Remains to be seen whether Q1 results will be good… Right now consensus still seems to be fairly optimistic — not sure Tesla will be able to top it this time.

Of course we have no idea what other good or bad news will come over the next months…

“Predicting a volatile stock will return to the midpoint at some unnamed date isn’t exactly controversial.”

Yup. Any reasonably observant person could have made this prediction. The idea that so-called “analysts” actually get paid a salary and get attention for stating the obvious… Hey, where can I apply for a job that easy? 😉

“Citron Research Says Tesla Will Rebound From Stock Fall”

Well, duh! The only question is how soon.

Another Euro point of view

Not right now apparently.