Chinese Battery Boom Underway, May Hold 2/3rds Of Market By 2021
Bloomberg reports that tons of new project in China could “bury Elon Musk in batteries” (which seems a bit sensationalist in the titling) as even the Tesla Gigafactory will not be able to outperform the Chinese market share expansion; which makes sense considering the country is projecting to build over 1 million plug-ins in 2017, and over 7 million by 2025.
Currently, China holds more than 55% of the total lithium-ion production (103 GWh), while the U.S. only 10%.
Because manufacturers in China are on track to add 120 GWh of annual capacity by 2021 (enough for 1.5 million Tesla Model S sedans, or 13.7 million Toyota Prius Primes), China could increase its market share to 65% out of 273 GWh worldwide.
The attention grabbing narrative from Bloomberg continues:
“As Elon Musk races to finish building the world’s biggest battery factory in the Nevada desert, China is poised to leave him in the dust.”
Tesla is currently adding some major battery capacity of its own, a must when one looks to increase production from 84,000 cars in 2016 to a run-rate of half a million by the end of 2018.
““This is about industrial policy. The Chinese government sees lithium-ion batteries as a hugely important industry in the 2020s and beyond,” Bloomberg New Energy Finance analyst Colin McKerracher said.”
““The Gigafactory announced three years ago sparked a global battery arms race,” said Simon Moores, a managing director at Benchmark Mineral Intelligence. “China is making a big push.””
“But don’t count Tesla out. The company, based in Palo Alto, California, plans to announce locations for up to four new factories by the end of 2017. (It’s exploring at least one site in Shanghai.) And there are few, if any, individual Chinese battery companies that can match the scale of Tesla’s production toe to toe.”