China Targets 800,000 Plug-In Electric Vehicle Sales In 2017

8 months ago by Mark Kane 15

Sales of New Energy Vehicles in China – 2016

After back-to-back very impressive gains the past two years, China expects even further growth of the New Energy Vehicle (all-electric and plug-in hybrid vehicle) market this year.

China

After record a 507,000 plug-in vehicles sold in 2016 (including more than 350,000 cars and 115,700 all-electric buses), the new goal is 800,000 this year.

The 58% improvement is to hopefully be achieved despite a 20% cut of central government subsidies. Clearly the government is hoping the majoring of the EV market and many new offerings will make up the demand shortfall caused by curtailing incentives.

Xu Yanhua, a vice secretary of CAAM (China Association of Automobile Manufacturers), said to Economic Information Daily that passenger EVs would be powering the market in 2017, with an estimated 70% demand surge during the year.

“In 2017, demand for long-range pure electric car will rise further, charging facilities will continue to maintain rapid growth momentum, and following an expansion in scale, manufacturing costs will also be further reduced,” Xu told the state-run publication (via Reuters).

In 2016, the targeted volume was 700,000.  Given how short how short (~193,000 units) the actual total came to that estimate (despite being incredible impressive and outpacing the total sales of the rest of the global community combined), we tend to feel that 800k in 2017, with less incentives, has virtually no shot at happening.

But we aren’t China, so we’d happily take a 150k miss on that number too!

source: Reuters

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15 responses to "China Targets 800,000 Plug-In Electric Vehicle Sales In 2017"

  1. SJC says:

    This won’t eliminate traffic jams, but the air could be cleaner.

    1. Just_Chris says:

      115,700 buses will make quite a big of difference. I am not saying it will bring an end to traffic but more public transport coupled with things like bus lanes and priority traffic lights will make the world of difference.

      1. SJC says:

        BRT is a great idea with EV buses. If China wants to do something they do, they don’t talk it to death then under fund it.

  2. Vexar says:

    This is out of 28M vehicles sold last year in China. They are ahead of the US, but behind some European countries in terms of adoption percentages.

  3. Emc2 says:

    I agree with your forecast Mark.

    January sales figures were published yesterday, with new energy vehicles free falling into the 5000s, even BYD fell to the 100s. After selling around 40,000 in December this is quite a bad start if China is aiming for 800k in 2017. The chance of the rules is taking its toll.

    1. trackdaze says:

      January is a dog of a month in china with december rush depleting cars and customers and a week long holiday for the lunar new year.

      A 20% cut in subsidies isnt going to decimate sales for the year as manufacturers adjust their margins from the exponential cost reductions for batteries.

      Id be splitting the distance between last years sales and this years forecast.

      1. PJ says:

        Well January 2016 I think had 12k. So if China only sold 5k that’s surely not a good omen

  4. Nix says:

    A 20% cut per year in subsidies is exactly how a subsidy sunset should work. Much more rational than the US system, which will work more like a light switch than a gradual sunset like this.

    The historical price improvement in commodity lithium batteries is approx 14% per year (with part of that coming from lower price per cell, and the other part coming from more storage capacity per cell.) So a 20% per year sunset is a decent match for dropping battery prices.

  5. suresh says:

    wow. we get trump and they get 800k electric cars.

    1. Dave86 says:

      LOL.

      Thanks, I needed a laugh like that.

      I vote for the proposed trade.

  6. ffbj says:

    China is headed for a downturn. This will probably help more than anything. They are shutting down lots of coal fired power plants and working to slow aluminum/steel production, which is way overproduced, in an effort to improve air and water quality.

    What will be a real miracle is if they are able to avoid a major environmental catastrophe.

  7. Someone out there says:

    The question then is how many of these sales are proper sales and not some scam to squeeze money from the government.

    1. Tom says:

      Aren’t all BEV and PHEV sales scams to squeeze money from the government?

      I’ll be here all week. Try the veal.

      1. trackdaze says:

        If so youd think ford, gm and chrysler would have gone in early and hard.

  8. Epicurus says:

    China is a dictatorship. Why don’t they prescribe CAFE rules requiring 100mpge for all passenger cars next year? That would boost the hell out of plug-in sales.