China Considers ZEV Mandate Similar To California

MAY 17 2016 BY MARK KANE 11

Citroën E-Elysée

Citroën E-Elysée

China is looking to tighten emissions standards, to more emulate what is currently found in Europe and the U.S.

The latest Chinese decision is the introduction of the National VI emissions standard (equivalent to the Euro 6) in major cities for 2017, and to cover the whole country in 2018.

A previous timeframe was set for 2020, but it seems the dense smog crippling areas of the country pollution problem is too urgent.

At the same time, China is considering mirroring California’s ZEV mandate, which requires a certain (and ever-increasing) percentage of electric vehicles and plug-in hybrids put on the road each year.

The introduction of a specific ZEV mandate could be introduced around 2020.  To a degree China already has similar system to this today, allowing only a limited amount of non-EV registrations in “problem” areas of the country; want a car today in Beijing?  Your best bet to make that happen is to buy an EV.

One more solution to the emission situation on the table is to require the average fuel economy of new cars set 20 km per liter of gas (40% tougher) by 2020, so manufacturers offering larger or sporty models would need to have electric cars in the mix anyway.

According to CAAM, about half of Chinese carmakers will go bankrupt if emission standards will be too inflated:

“Chinese automakers are growing concerned with the ever-stricter standards. “If the new emissions standards are introduced in earnest,” said an official of the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, half of the country’s carmakers, many of which lack advanced environmental technology, could go out of business.”

source: Nikkei

Categories: General


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11 Comments on "China Considers ZEV Mandate Similar To California"

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China needs to address their massive coal burning. That is their biggest problem. Use natural gas, solar PV, onshore wind, nuclear, hydropower, offshore wind, etc. Stop with the coal that is literally killing you.

Check out the energy use graphs and maps in these two links from the Washington Post. The second graph down in in the first link is an terrific interactive graph of the electricity generation by power source in percentages for each state. You can rearrange the graph by choosing a different power source. It’s really addictive!

Those Washington Post articles are extremely misleading. It was clear when those articles were published that there had been major shifts in global energy markets. Global coal usage is declining not growing and has been for a couple years:

It is already. At the 2016 CERA in Houston the heads of the Chinese grid basically said that they are taking a renewable-first approach and they don’t even consider there to be baseload power.

While the amount of coal generation continues to grow, the proportion of electricity generated by coal is falling, and the utilization rates on their coal plants are also falling.

China also recently banned imports of brown coal. So marginal fuel use will also be expected to become cleaner.

But other major contributors to the pollution, are vehicle emissions and use of solid fuel for heating. China’s tightening emissions standards and pushing PEV. It also signed a major supply deal with Russia for NG. So, while it’s always mindful of its economy, it isn’t sitting on its hands on energy.

The average selling price per car in China isn’t even 10 grand. So the tech, or batteries, implied by these 40% jumps in efficiency have greater economic sting on the carmakers.

Average selling priced or cars in China is ~$22k.

“half of the country’s carmakers, many of which lack advanced environmental technology, could go out of business.” Or, they could take a page out of China’s book, in reverse, and partner/invest with North American Auto Companies, and learn how to improve fuel efficiency and cleaner exhausts!

Chinese policymakers may WANT to forcibly consolidate the auto industry to more easily assault foreign markets. Japan’s industry ministry pressured companies into mergers (Prince + Nissan, Toyota + Daihatsu) for that reason, though that petered out once the energy crisis created an even bigger export breakthrough and there was plenty of work for everybody.

Maybe smaller auto makers in China, could morph into advanced EV Conversion Companies, and start a business in remanufacturing old vehicles into BEV’s? Or jump start Solar Vehicles, that may plug in, but won’t always need to? Traffic speeds on major roads there are now so slow, a big, ugly box of a vehicle, could have a Solar Roof – that would be the ful length and width of the vehicle!

Solar Powered Family Car Generates More Energy Than It Uses – By Evan Ackerman
Posted 13 Jul 2015 | 14:30 GMT

The comment about half the automaker going out of business if pollution is not allowed to continue has a counterpart. If all pollution efforts are abandoned, then China could possibly double the number of automakers.

In either case, the number of cars in China is not going to change all that much, just the pollution level per car.