BYD Increases Net Earnings And Expects To Double Plug-In Sales Every Year Through 2018

JAN 25 2016 BY MARK KANE 13

BYD plug-in electric car sales in China – December 2015

BYD plug-in electric car sales in China – December 2015

BYD plug-in hybrid vehicles Qin and Tang

BYD plug-in hybrid vehicles Qin and Tang

BYD expects increases in its net profits for the past 2015 to some $400-430 million.

That would be around six times more than in 2014 (around $65 million at the current exchange rate). BYD’s total revenues in 2014 were at $8.4 billion.

According to BYD, profit grew due to sales of plug-in vehicles;; this marks one of the few times we have heard a major OEM credit plug-in vehicles for success and profit.  This lack of positive feedback from the rest of the global auto industry is perhaps due to the fact BYD isn’t currently petitioning regulators/government to lower upcoming fuel efficiency and emissions standards – such as what is happening behind closed doors currently for 2025 CAFE targets in the US.

The Chinese manufacturer sold over 10,000 plug-in passenger cars alone in December alone, but even at that pace it can’t keep up with demand.

Separate news is that BYD hopes to double NEVs sales every year over the next three years (2016-2018).

That would mean at least over 120,000 sales this year (10,000 a month is the new norm?), 240,000 in 2017 and some half million in 2018! Well, we just hope that BYD is aware of how multiplying times two could turn out over the longer period, like 64 times in a row.

Source: Automotive News China

Categories: BYD


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13 Comments on "BYD Increases Net Earnings And Expects To Double Plug-In Sales Every Year Through 2018"

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Wonder what is happening with the BYD dealership building in downtown Los Angeles. It has said “coming soon” for well over a year now.

Just like the Outlander, call me when it comes to the USA.

If they are having issues keeping up in China alone, going from 60k this year (number taken from this site) and expanding to 500k could really happen pretty easy IF they have the production room for it.

Warren Buffet is smiling.

It is more profitable than Tesla?

But Telsa market cap are way higher?

All this, without counting electric buses, of which they are the world’s biggest producer by far.

Way to go BYD. Let’s just hopes it keeps trending like they expect.

BYD is only the third largest manufacturer of electric buses. There are two Chinese manufacturers that produce and sell more.

And the top 5 manufacturers “only” had ~62% of the total market in China (2014) so there is plenty of competition and a fairly spread market.

BYD is the most known to us and the one that sells the most electric buses outside China though.

Suggestion to author: when quoting earnings from companies the report in different currency , it is best to keep a reference to the original currency to eliminate exchange rate differences.

Last year revenue was CNY52.89 billion while this year is CNY55.29 billion, so growth rate has slowed to 4.5% (it was 13% last year on CNY46.85 billion revenue).

Scratch that, I read $8.4 billion as estimated 2015 revenue, but actually it is 2014. I guess we won’t find out until next month.

BYD sold more than 10,000 BEV+PEV in just 1 month. I hope they can repeat this in the coming months and this will force other automakers to sell more EVs.

Some company needs to be making and selling plug-in EVs in large numbers, and it might as well start in China as elsewhere.

Will BYD be able to double sales three years in a row? I don’t know enough about the China market to have an educated guess. But I wouldn’t be surprised if they do, even with the well-publicized downturn in China’s economy.

But as this article notes, you can’t keep doubling anything dependent on finite resource forever. There is a reason that market penetration during a disruptive tech revolution is an “S” curve. Exponential growth lasts only so long, after which you get diminishing returns; growth slows as the new tech spreads to cover nearly the entire market.

I see no reason to think BYD or any other company is really on the verge of stealing most of the market from gasmobiles, not even in China. I think we’re still one real battery tech breakthru from the tipping point — labeled “The Breakthrough!” on the graph linked above — at which new car buyers start preferring PEVs to gasmobiles.

But still, good luck and much success to BYD!

What so many fail to recognize is the auto/oil industries in the US have little incentive to change or disturb their profitable business models and especially the delicate relationships so many officials have with large industry incumbents.

BYD is ignored, dismissed, not covered by domestic media, the US auto industry, and Wall Street respectively – hence not incentive.

Now, they can ignore them all they want; however, that will likely be at their own peril and expense. Just because most who went to Ivey Leagues and wear bow ties, doesn’t mean they can “stop it” by ignoring it.

China will do this whether the West likes it or not. Further, although the US is an important market, it is not necessary, as the (ROW) is large enough for BYD to lead the transportation and energy storage disruption.

2016 will do down in history as the year “adoption began”.

I predict BYD will be a 7-10 bagger over the next 7 years.

BYD is impressive, they don’t just do press releases they actually build and deliver products.

Sandbag- Agree with your bagging forecasts.
My model shows Byd 5x by 2020 (selling 500K EVs pa), 7.5x by 2025 (selling 1m EVs pa), and 29x by 2030 if they can reach 10m EVs pa (same size as Toyota, VW, GM). My forecasts allow for USD 0.3m pa of CapEx expenses, and only assume a PE multiple of 12 for Byd in 2020-2025. Also assumes some bus sales and powerwalls and PV. Indeed multi-bagger potential that is definitely possible.