By 2020, Electrified Vehicles Will Take 7% of the Global Automotive Market

OCT 20 2013 BY STAFF 13

According to the latest forward-looking forecast by Navigant Research, electrified vehicles (HEV, PHEV and BEV) will take hold of 7% of the global automotive market by 2020.

Of course, HEVs are expected to account for the majority of that share, but year by year, BEVs and PHEVs will make gains so that by 2020, their combined share will nearly match (see graphic above) that of conventional hybrids.

Even more encouraging is that Navigant says annual sales of electrified vehicles will hit 6.6 million units in 2020, up from just over 2 million in 2013.

Navigant says that growth in the electrified vehicles segment is driven by several factors,  “including consumer demand for less-expensive operational costs compared to gasoline-powered vehicles, consistent government policy, multiple new models from major automakers, and lower battery prices.”

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13 Comments on "By 2020, Electrified Vehicles Will Take 7% of the Global Automotive Market"

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I would seriously doubt that because it would be a linear progression and it will more likely be a sigmoid which is a linear progression only at first that is then followed by a huge exponential progression before an asymptotic progression. We will enter the exponential phase before 2020 because several strategic models will come on the market before that date. The Tesla III, the Volt with 5 seats, the i5, the Saab EV and perhaps others.

Will the exponential growth start before or after 2020 ?

I think before 2020, but obviously it depend on the exact arrival dates of the different strategic models.

Exactly – who knows , right ?

So, their linear model till 2020 might be right. I’d not dismiss it just because it is linear. Generally exponential growth starts after 10% market share. I doubt we will have 10% market share by 2020.

I don’t know why all of the mainstream articles and studies group regular hybrids with plug-ins. To me, they are completely different animals with much different user experiences.

They’re grouping cars that at best get 50mpg with cars that get well or triple digit #’s.

Lots of way to group things and even in our community we group them differently.

In this model Navigant is grouping “everything” that gets an assist from a battery and an electric motor. I think our logic is to consider those fully under electric power under regular use which even cuts out some PHEVs depending on how they are used.

I know I might be required to sit in the penalty box for such a statement but I don’t mind the grouping that is separated by columns or colors that includes our brother the HEV. People need to start hearing “millions” and “EVs” in the same sentence. It is good for the end game.

Pulling a “Kdawg” who is the undisputed king of graphs, one can extrapolate that Navigant is predicting BEVs/PHEVs combined will reach a global million in just two years (2015).

I agree with Priusmaniac. These predictions aren’t any good because there isn’t going to be a linear, or even a predictable, curve to follow. Real revolutions take off because they feed on their own success.

I’ll stay with my prediction: %25 of the market by 2025, for pure electric cars. By that year the hybrid is going to be dead. Why? In a world of 300 mile+ cars and 15 minute charge times, there isn’t going to be a need for hybrids.

Gasoline and oil glut and lack of mass adoption even with better prices will not allow for the exponential growth. What was the growth curve of the Prius? They were cheaper than today’s EVs. The Europeans are in a general recession and even with gas at high costs, are still not ready for mass EV adoption.

Growth rates as I see it YoY
2014-2020 … 80, 90, 70, 55, 60, 40, 45

A declining YoY rate is still acceptable and is true growth. If feel that some headwinds will occur following the 2016 elections and eventual drop of the 7500 tax credit after 200k units per company in the USA and limited worldwide government continuance of incentives.

Many of our early success is due to heavy (Heavy)! Incentives.

I’m with Scott Moore and twistedmaniac. I don’t think it will be a linear take-up and I think next year things are gonna really start picking up.

This is also a annual not cummulative graph. Based on that, they have the global BEV/PHEV numbers doubling next year. I hope that is right but may have a hard time buying that.

I really think sales really depend on some type of break though not in something being invented as much but more in line if they bring the 48 kilowatt leaf into production or if Tesla keeps up their idea of bringing the Tesla third Generation into production. Other then that I don’t picture sales getting that large for the time being,

I belive the world has gone electric but just not visible yet today.

I predict we will have a rapid growth from next year on wards. With all the rapid chargers every 50miles on highways being installed – Pure EVs will be 80% by 2020.