Bosch Expects 15% Of All New Cars To Have At Least A Hybrid Powertrain By 2025

FEB 26 2015 BY MARK KANE 21



Bosch, as one of the largest suppliers of automotive components, released a few bold statements at the Car Symposium in Bochum, Germany.

First is that low oil prices will not change the growing pace of powertrain electrification.

The German company expects that hybrid powertrains will become the standard for SUVs (we think that plug-in hybrids will represent a significant portion).  Bosch further adds that out of all new cars built worldwide by 2025, at least 15% will feature hybrid powertrains (at the very least, meaning PHEVs or BEVs could make up a significant portion of that 15%)..

The most important forecast put out by Bosch is on battery prices – by 2020 half the cost and double the energy density!

This should trigger electric car sales growth to allnew levels.

Bosch is developing charging stations and a connectivity system. In Germany, 80% of charging points are running on Bosch’s software platform.

“At the moment, recharging vehicles is complicated. But this is expected to become much more convenient. Bosch Software Innovations, the Bosch Group’s software and systems unit, has developed an app that makes it significantly easier to reserve the charge spots of different providers and pay for the electricity. Up to now, doing this would have required a different customer card for each provider. Now all drivers need is a smartphone, the app, and a PayPal account to recharge anywhere in Germany. Bosch also complements this with a software platform that links 80 percent of all charge spots in Germany. As this example shows, Bosch no longer sees itself solely as a supplier of automotive components. The company is now combining its expertise in all three mobility domains – automation, electrification, and connectivity – and will in the future be offering its customers integrated mobility solutions.”

The other area of electrification is e-bikes:

Fun as a reason to buy: e-bikes show the way
However, rational arguments alone are not enough to win drivers over to electric powertrains. In Bosch’s view, emotion and fun play a decisive role. The example of e-bike drives illustrates this. Bosch’s “electric tailwind” makes riding a bike a joy – for serious athletes as well as recreational cyclists. Bosch is now the European market leader in this area, and its e-bike drives feature in more than 50 bike brands. “The e-bike is the most successful electric vehicle in the EU,” Denner said, adding that customers pay considerably more on average for e-bikes than they do for classic ones. “For more than 100 years, riding a bike was a mechanical process. No one saw any reason to change it. Then along came the e-bike, and completely redefined a market everyone thought would never change,” Denner said. The same could be true for the auto industry, he added. The Bosch CEO stressed that the supplier of technology and services will be using its comprehensive systems and connectivity know-how to take electromobility a decisive step forward.”

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21 Comments on "Bosch Expects 15% Of All New Cars To Have At Least A Hybrid Powertrain By 2025"

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That’s a low estimation to me.
that 15% should be reached around 2020…

I am much more inclined to agree with Tony Seba, watch this and see for yourself. Of course, that is if the manufacturers do not limit availability and provide enough production to meet demand;

Thanks for the post Driverguy, just watched the whole video. great post. I too think they are way off with only 15% more like 50-75%

Thanks for posting this. Now I don’t have to. 🙂

Tony Seba is on to something here. In my lifetime we’ve had the internet, cell phones, then smart phones, and Netflix that have completely changed how things are done. Uber is doing its darndest to kill traditional taxi services. Drones are being used for all kinds of crazy things. The adoption of long range (200+ miles) electric cars is pretty minor in comparison.

Pretty major in comparison. All those things you list are signal transmission applications. Primary traction is power transmission, and Moore’s Law only applies tangentially.

It _is_ an argument in Bosch’s favor for e-bikes, which are far closer to being data-amperage than a car. And moreso for e-boards, e-unicycles, and maybe personal mobility device we haven’t even imagined yet.

Thanks. I’ll look into what you’re talking about this weekend.

I was mainly speaking of business disruption, not technology per se. Bosch is predicting 15% hybrid by 2025? The car industry is in for a major disruption if this is the numbers they’re predicting.

Half the price and double the capacity, but only relative to today’s Bosch products. Not difficult, Nissan is already close to that goal today!

That’s all just propaganda from Bosch to make the people not to buy an EV today, because Bosch want to save their giant ICE part business.

Sure, because they have NO involvement in appliances, the grid and other stationary applications, and a huge impact in e-bikes. Nope, none at all. Not one eurocent.

Are we not already at 15%? Hybrids are getting quite common now, all major car manufacturers are selling several hybrid models already.

I think it sounds like a really low estimate, I would guess at least 50% by 2020.

Market share in the US for 2014 was 3.5% for hybrids, plug-in hybrids, AND electrics COMBINED. I highly doubt the rest of the world is so skewed that we are anywhere near 15% worldwide.

Honestly, I find this prediction slightly optimistic. We’ve heard it before – a decade ago Honda thought 50% or more of their sales would be hybrids by now. The were way off. The tide is turning, but it’s slower than many of us here want to admit.

I know this is a different source, but consider this prediction from 2008:

“The new study predicts that hybrids will account for seven percent of the car market in 2015”

Considering that Hybrids + PHEVs + BEVs were less than half that in 2014, (and given that the latter two weren’t even considered in this 2008 prediction) I find it hard to believe that sales will more than double this year.

We are at about 3%. And hybrids outside the US (and especially California) and Japan are fairly rare.
Rare enough that a lot of people just call them a Prius and consider the term hybrid to refer to plugin-hybrids.

The hybrid market is stagnant and even decreasing so if not something drastically happens then there will soon be just plugin-hyrbids and BEV’s and very few traditional hybrids.

Wayyyyy to conservative. I stay with %25 BEV by 2025. Total hybrid+BEV of new car sales (not on the road) to be at or greater then %50.

BEV sales take off by 2020. With roadable 50KWH cars (150-200) miles, there is no need for people to maintain EVs as a second car only. By the time 2025 rolls up, EVs will have entered “cost inversion”, that is, the total cost of ownership of an EV will be well below an equivalent gas car.

Totally agree with your second paragraph, with the caveat that electric cars have already reached cost inversion now with certain urban uses and the availability of home charging.

I actually think ICE cars will be pretty much gone as new cars by 2025. I think Bosch has the numbers inverted, it’ll be more like 15% (or less) of new cars will be ICE. By 2025 we’ll be onto 3rd generation 100kWh BEVs. That’s what my crystal ball is showing me anyway. 😉

I agree that BEVs will take off by 2020, but I think you’re forgetting some relevant factors.
We’re at 0.5% (BEV+PHEV) in most Western markets. Even if a 200mi (EPA-range) BEV will be the market acceptance point, and there are models selling that achieve it in 2018, by then the incentives will be gone. Cars replaced every 7-10 years, so progress can’t be that slow. I’d be happy with 4-5% EV marketshare of new cars in 2020 (which means it’ll as share of all cars on the road).

I have to agree with others that say 15% is low. If the current EPA regs stay, it will take a lot of hybrids to meet the 2025 mandate of 54.5 mpg

That’s actually a very generous estimate, compared to other industry estimates.

“The most important forecast put out by Bosch is on battery prices – by 2020 half the cost and double the energy density!”

This is actually a pretty safe bet. Lithium battery prices have been coming down by about 14% a year and densities have been increasing by about 7% a year, at the same time.

I’d like to see more info about the trends you are describing. Could you please add a link?

Sure. Here’s one:

The 7% energy density increae I’ve read about has usually come from Tesla. The 14% price decreases come from Tony Seba in the video embedded above. As someone who vapes (ecigs), I’ve personally seen the commonly used 18650s used in that application increase from 1600 mAh to 2100 mAh in the last few years, with some less capable 3400 mAth

Stupid tablets…

…with some less capable 3400 mAh being available.

So an 18650 is still about $10 a piece at retail, but the density has increased significantly in just a few years.

Presumably they’re not including micro-hybrids in the count. If they did, I’d expect the fraction to exceed 75% by 2025.

One thing is certain: In coming years, we’re going to see a lower and lower percentage of pure gas guzzlers being sold.