BorgWarner Predicts EV Growth Despite Looming Emissions Standards War

NOV 20 2016 BY STEVEN LOVEDAY 25

Image Credit: BorgWarner

Image Credit: BorgWarner

No one is all too sure what will come of the 54.5 mpg CAFE standard these days.

If people thought that future emissions standards weren’t clear already, now it is going to get much more complicated with Trump as president-elect and the Republicans in control in Washington. However, BorgWarner CEO James Verrier has faith in hybrid and EV growth, regardless of regulations. He said:

BorgWarner's eGearDrive(R) Transmission is one of many components that the company will

BorgWarner’s eGearDrive(R) transmission is one of many hybrid and EV components that the company will continue to manufacture and supply to automakers.

“The push from automakers for better fuel economy will come independently of regulation. It may not be as strong, but it definitely will be there.”

BorgWarner is an American automotive supplier with a worldwide impact. The company has 60 manufacturing centers in 18 countries. Verrier made it clear that the company will still move forward with plans to build new motors, transmissions, and other components, specifically for EVs and hybrids. He feels that some automakers are already too invested in efforts to meet the potential requirements.

Verrier anticipates that China and Europe will continue the push for efficiency and reduced emissions. Volkswagen and Daimler, among others, have publicly committed to large-scale implementation of electric vehicles. Regardless of the election of Trump, Verrier believes that U.S. automakers will have to keep up with the worldwide transition. He shared:

“Is 54.5 mpg gone forever? Or are we just going to push [implementation] farther into the future? It’s very early. We’ll have to wait and see … I don’t think the automakers will back off. I don’t think we’ll see regression.”

According to IHS Automotive, by 2023, global hybrid sales will reach 18 million. Current hybrid sales are at about 3 million. By the same time, IHS estimates 2.3 million global EV sales annually, up from more than 500,000 in 2015 (and around ~800,000 likely for 2016). BorgWarner is projecting that EV and hybrid components will account for 16 percent of the company’s sales by 2023. Currently, the segment only generates about 1 percent for the company.

Source: Autonews

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25 Comments on "BorgWarner Predicts EV Growth Despite Looming Emissions Standards War"

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Sales plug no doubt.

I am sure they are right.

EVs will win because of their vastly superior technology, it’s just a matter of time for people to learn about them.

Then Republicans will take credit for the gains by applying free market principles instead of ‘heavy handed regulations’. And I won’t care because EVs!

EV’s will win because the rest of the world will continue with them regardless of what the US does.
This will eventually result in _MUCH_ cheaper EV’s than ICE’s from a multitude of international manufacturers, as long as the US has at least minimumal EV infrastructure they will eventually become an irresistable flood regardless of whether US manufacturers choose to produce them or not.

Until battery costs come down considerably I am not sure I would agree. The battery just costs so damn much!!

Still, with my ability to charge at low rates thanks to solar even if it costs more up front I think I save costs in the long run. A lot of people don’t or can’t think about the long run.

Panasonic/Tesla and LG already have the costs below $150/kwh. In otherwords, at or quickly reaching mass market EV price point. There will now be a rapid expansion of plugin vehicles.

Awesome, i hope so.
Instant Torque is addictive.

(lets just hope fuses wont end up costing $200/pop)

I’m afraid that ‘Don the Con’ and the Republicans will not bring the change in Government, the American people voted for. It’s looking more like a return to the W. Bush days where the rich got even richer. And, don’t forget we are still in the non-ending George Bush war.

We will have a chance in the two year midterm election to purge out the Climate Deniers and the high falutin pollutin’ Republicans from the Congress. With the new leadership the Democrats have installed, they will start acting like a party of the people and less like the Republican party of the rich. Hang on until the midterms, when It will be time to really bring change in Congress by voting out the rascals.

The legacy car makers are already going hat in hand to D.C. or more like N.Y.C. presently, to get relief form the atrocious burdens placed on them.

And this letter earned them an email telling them that even their EVs are off my list now.

Yup. Trump, who actually did call global warming a Chinese hoax despite his later denial, has already chosen a global warming denier to head the EPA. Anybody who thinks the CAFE standards won’t be rolled back under a Trumpian administration is in for a rude awakening.

The real danger is that the Trumpians may remove the power of States to use the more stringent CARB standards for air quality, rather than the weaker, and soon to be even more weak, EPA requirements.

Sure, Trumpians and the Hard Right believe in States’ Rights… except when they find that principle inconvenient to their political agendas.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/energy-environment/wp/2016/11/11/meet-the-man-trump-is-relying-on-to-unravel-obamas-environmental-legacy/?utm_term=.9dfedca29e9f

“global warming denier” A polite expression for “eco-criminal politician paid by Big Oil to shut up”.

Trump didn’t even need to be paid by Big Oil, unlike the man he’s tasking to puppetize the EPA. Like many White Americans, Trump has an emotional allegiance to the idea that they are innately morally superior to everyone else, and that everything they do to enrich themselves at the expense of anyone else will magically become a net improvement to the world since they are the only creatures of value in it. A powerful government means that none of that is true. So the corporations simply shaped the nation’s political system using the momentum created by this prejudice. Now note that this does not mean that they believe their lies that global warming doesn’t exist or will do no harm. It could simply mean, the harm will be done to subhumans who don’t deserve to stand in their way, and don’t even deserve an acknowledgement of facts. In other words, if the future is nothing but a wasteland of misery studded with walled White compounds that can claim “superiority” over the other survivors – it will be “worth it.” That absolutism is part of the unacknowledged bond between Trump and his followers. We are meant to rule, anything less… Read more »

Anytime you mention the supposed 54 mpg standard, you have to put the disclaimer that it’s based on a ridiculously easy cycle.

Similar to the NEDC, you have to take a third to half off. It really only means around 36 mpg in real life.

No, the EPA cycle is very close to reality, as long as you don’t drive like a maniac. If you consider the EPA already to be wrong by around 30%, the NEDC will be wrong by 100-150% for you.

NEDC eGolf 12.7 kWh/100km (= 164 MPGe)
EPA eGolf 18.05 kWh/100km (= 116 MPGe).

So the the EPA rates the consumption of the eGolf 42% higher. Saing the EPA-value is to low by 30% means the real consumption would be 23.47 kWh/100km (= 89MPGe). That means for the eGolf the NEDC is wrong for you by around 84%.

With that i proven, that EPA and NEDC are certainly not the same and the EPA values are much more better/acurate.

That’s not what he said. He’s talking about the CAFE standard, not the EPA MPG/MPGe standard.

Changing CAFE is an wet dream. Not happening in any meaningful way. It might change along the margins depending on how much political capital the auto makers want to spend. To change the standards in the US will require CARB, and I don’t see CARB accommodating the auto industry. Moreover, the EU and China are not backing off, so there is little point in reducing standards that will have to satisfied on a global basis. On the political side things are not clear cut. For example, it’s hard to see Bob Corker dumping on Nissan (or all the solar companies that make Tennesse home either). The big surprise is GM. Of all the major automakers, it’s the only one with the technology to easily meet the 2025 standards. Right now the Malibu hybrid crushes it, and the Volt, CT6, and the Bolt EV aren’t even on the same planet. Best of all from GM’s POV, these different types of vehicles all use the same Voltec system, which allows for lower costs as the system is deployed on more vehicles. Compare it to Ford, or better yet pathetically behind FCA, and you have to wonder why GM doesn’t push the existing… Read more »

The funny part of big auto wanting relaxed CAFE is how easily it has been met so far and how easily it can probably continue to be met…

China is what the US market has started following and will continue to do so more and more since that is or will be more important to big auto than the US market…

More and more cars will be designed with China consumers in mind and then sold in the US…

Good point where GM should push standards but that would probably destroy FCA who is by far the weakest auto maker in most every aspect…

The rest of the automakers that sell in the US would probably not have much of an issue…

Don’t underestimate what Nissan is doing and what they have planned for the future. Nissan will continue with electric cars because now customers are demanding them, and I’m confident their next model will be better than the Leaf. A lot of people make fun of the Leaf but as an owner of two Leafs I can tell you the Leaf is a great car for the purpose it serves. People are still buying new Leafs at a modest but steady pace and used Leafs are selling like crazy. Electric car demand is now growing on its own because of public interest, CAFE standards will not affect public desire for new electric cars. If the established auto makers don’t build them, new startups and companies like Tesla will.

EV market share is only 1%, as soon as Trump dismantles government regulations…nobody will take EVs seriously.

Yes Don, GM has the technology in their excellent Voltec system but they don’t have the will to electrify their ICE cash cows SUVs and Trucks so they will continue to short-sightedly ask for the delay or removal of CAFE standards so they can make more money rather then fight for what is right.

Very short sighted IMHO since they could use the rising CAFE as an opportunity to gain market share against the laggards at FCA and Ford.

I’m sure BW are correct.

The experience of driving an EV trumps politics. There’s no going back to a thrasher after visiting the 21st century.

As we all know, product life cycles are pretty long. 4 years is not. I think most can agree that the anti Hillary vote was strong and the election was very close. I think many expect that the Don will do some things to make reelection unlikely. Even the mid terms are likely to be ugly.

The gutting of the EPA may lead to expansion of CARB states. There are true conservatives (read state’s rights) in Congress that should allow it.

No rational CEO wants the EPA to be gutted and then Sander’s like president to come in next and hit them with a 75 MPG standard.

What I fear is that Democrats will have read the reasons for the loss wrong and assume that the reason their candidate lost is because she wasn’t far left enough rather than being..well Hillary.

If they go with someone like Bernie Sanders again in 4 years I’m pretty sure he will lose. He not as strong as a candidate as he appeared at the right time and place when he was placed against Hillary, who people were not thrilled about, and Trump, who at that time was a feared unknown.

After 4 years if Trump holds it together just enough that their same PR strategy they used in the election to spin and blame others for all their mistakes and shortcomings people simply get used to and familiar with the situation and tune out and won’t show up to the polls.

It’s hard to unseat an incumbent unless they really screw up or the opposing party puts forth a candidate that is really attractive politically to the widest audience and is charismatic.

This is what happened when G.W.Bush was elected for his second term. I hope I’m wrong.

I hope so too. So far Trump has been abysmal and he hasn’t taken office yet.

If so A massive false step. The euro and Asian manufacturers will be LOLing.