BMW Exec: 85% Of Our Cars Will Still Have Engine In 2030

OCT 10 2018 BY VANJA KLJAIC 101

BMW is following the path to the electric future, but they are doing it on their own terms

For the most part, BMW has always been at the forefront of vehicle powertrain and handling development. The Munich based carmaker has been one of the top dogs in the game for the last 40 years. However, concerning electrification and advanced technology in recent years, the Bavarian carmaker doesn’t impress as it once used to. Currently, everyone in the motoring industry seems to agree that electric is the way forward. However, BMW is taking this a path a bit more cautiously.

Reasons for electrification range from simply saving the planet, all the way to helping reduce accidents due to autonomous driving and advanced sensor array applications. Some even quote how electric vehicles will eventually cost less to build & maintain. However, according to BMW’s chief of product development, Mr. Klaus Frohlich, that isn’t the case. For Frochlich, electrification wise, the expectations are too high compared to what real numbers show. Even though while everyone’s betting on electric vehicles, Frochlich believes that BMW will have internal combustion engines powering their cars for many years to come.

“A very optimistic scenario says 30 per cent of BMWs will be pure electric or plug-in hybrids and 70 per cent will be combustion. If you assume that, from this 30 per cent, half of them are plug-in hybrids – I have 85 per cent in my portfolio in 2030 with a combustion engine,” he said for GoAuto at Paris.

To make matters even more compelling, he believes that even that is an optimistic scenario and even so, the number of electric cars account for too little in the grand scheme of things. However, it seems that BMW is ready for the electric future and that Frolich is just being cautious.

“I think the discussion about electro-mobility is a little bit irrational. But we are prepared. We already purchased … cobalt and lithium from 2025-35. We already have the second life in place for consumers or for grid stabilization, we have built these battery farms. We are prepared to deliver. But the world – Russia, Australia, a large portion of the world – they will have combustion engines for a very long time,” he added.

While some of BMW’s direct competitors like Lexus are completely disregarding EVs for their future, Mercedes-Benz, Audi, and Volkswagen – alongside the ever advancing Tesla – are more keen on betting their future on purely electric vehicles. However, BMW is playing their hand rather cautiously. Certainly, statements from higher-ups in the company may sound cataclysmic, but the Germans don’t do anything out of hand. For BMW, the popularity and adoption rates for EVs will depend entirely on their range and in some cases, replacing ICE (Internal Combustion Engine) powered units won’t be possible at all, at least not until 2030. While some may say this is a safe approach from a legacy carmaker who will clearly go away to the history books, there’s a bit more to it.

BMW is currently following a very specific course of action towards electrification. They are closely monitoring their target base and proceeding accordingly. Furthermore, the company is trying to create a platform which can house all types of propulsion systems, allowing them to come unscathed if they make the wrong bet. While this safe approach won’t help us get an electric 3 Series any time soon, it will yield brand new hybrid and fully electric models in the future. Just maybe not at the rate we’re expecting it.

Source: BMW Blog

Categories: BMW

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101 Comments on "BMW Exec: 85% Of Our Cars Will Still Have Engine In 2030"

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EDSON C S FILHO

“Very optimistic” for BMW may be less or more electric cars?

viriato

I think less. Look at american car industy what requested to Trump, regulations must allow more emissions. That make cars more profitable, they can still using older technology and save investmentes in pollution improvements.

In Europe some makers are in campaign for make the diesel cars will have a better reputation. Consumers are turning their backs to diesel engines, but makers expended huge ammounts of money to developed cleaner diesel cars in the last years, to accomplish the WLTP regulations. And now the are concerned because the buyers wan’t this cars and mayba some of them will not can find the return of their investments.

They are money makers, not charity entities. Without the adecuate regulations, the progression will be slower.

Viking79

85% of nothing is still 0 🙂

eject

How can the Chinese market account for less than 15% of vehicles in 2030? Is he only counting cars sold under the BMW brand? But even than it just doesn’t add up. I think he will get fired, he is obviously unfit as a product designer for the upcoming years.

Bjørn Vabo

I’ve enjoyed a lot of BMWs over the years, and this statement make me sad. With the I3 they were quite early out with e-propulsion so i’ve had hope for “my” brand..
With this pace of innovation, i think they are facing “bankwupsy” in a few years..
Why not listen to the customers?
Why not see the writing on the wall?

Brian

I know how you feel. “My” brand was Honda for the longest time. They made affordable, fun-to-drive, efficient vehicles. I was thrilled that they were the first to bring a hybrid to the US. I had high hopes for them. At this point, they are far behind this curve. The Clarity PHEV is a good offering, but it’s nothing compare to what even BMW offers.

rey

The writing is more than just on the wall,Tesla is mopping BMW and Mercedes sales in the USA with the Mod 3 sales , can’t wait to see what the Mod Y will do,BMW will GAS themselves to death.

Prsnep

They don’t sound anti-EV at all. If they are guilty of anything, it is that they are underestimating EV demand. We like to make much ado about nothing around here.

Henrik

That is a classic trap when the market changes, seeing the change coming, be part of it early and still underestimate how transformative the change will be. See IBM and the PC versus mainframe. Their own innovation almost killed them. That is where many car companies are today: in the market, even leading it early on but soon to be crushed. Mitsubishi IMiev, anyone?

Prsnep

Worldwide PHEV+EV market is about 2% currently. They are expecting it to reach 30%. That represents a compound annual rate of change of 25% For 12 years straight. They could be wrong but anyone can agree that that is a very healthy rate of change.

antrik

Except that the average growth over the past several years has been >40%, and there are no signs of slowing down.

Ram Kumar

Agreed. BMW is one of my favorite brands as well, and I am saddened to hear this. BMW sounds like Sony trotting out a new line of portable CD players in 2003, after Apple had introduced the Ipod and Itunes. Or Leica announcing a brand new film SLR in 2005..

viriato

In my opinion, mainly It will depends of regulations. For example, Denmark will not allow ICE cars in 2030. Even hybrids for 2035. So, if other countries follow this politics, maybe BMW must change faster than expected.
Anyway, there are lot of countries and areas where the evolucion will be slower. India or China probably will let petrol cars for a long, and they will be the bigger markets on Earth. And a relevant part of the world, doesn’t looks capable of made the transition to electric soon, but they will need cars.
I’m european, so I don’t know about where USA goes, and what fast it does. Is there a probability that USA will ban the ICE cars in a decade or two or force makers to have a quota of BEVs and PHEVs?.

rey

The market will decide, and in the USA it has already started with the high priced Mod S and X and now going to premium affordable mod 3 and soon the more affordable base Mod3, all without advertising, mostly word of mouth.
A test drive and being loaned a BEV for a few days is enough for one to question why he has been driving a FOSSIL CAR all these years, BEV adoption will be held back by charging infras. and the production numbers, those who hold back get to see their customers stolen by Tesla, and the coming Chinese BEVs.

Andy

Unfortunately there’s a difference between wanting and buying. More and more people may well want an EV, but if there isn’t one in their price range, with the features (type, range, size etc.) or available in the required time frame then they’re not going to buy it.

Regulation will help force manufacturers to develop and sell EV’s but the technology and economics need to be there, and so far the latter two are the biggest issue for most of the general public now. That’ll change in future.

I also think the BMW guy is significantly underestimating demand for BMW EV’s. Their brand is one specifically that should be able to sell a lot more EV’s than most manufacturers (high value vehicles used predominantly in towns and cities/affluent areas).

antrik

China? Beside Norway, there is currently no other country pushing EV adoption nearly as aggressively as China.

India is more of a wildcard, since they stated that they want to get rid of combustion cars by 2030 (and they need it urgently), but so far haven’t indicated any actual legislation to support such a transition… On the other hand, India (even more than China) is dominated by two- and three-wheelers, which are already moving towards electricity fast. By the time India becomes a major market for “traditional” cars, electrification will likely be already a done deal.

Nick

He may as well have said, “please short our shares”. Other companies will have ICE sales to finance their battery investments, for BMW it will be too late.

sir_tech

This is why Tesla need to bring more variants (Model Y, pick-up truck, and base Model 3) as early as possible. They also need to increase capacity as soon as possible.

I don’t believe these traditional automakers. They will continue to drag and prolong ICEs with silly hybrids and plug-in hybrids with tiny batteries, unless they are hurt financially. China will take of their market with regulations but Tesla’s success is very important for the rest of the world to move to BEVs.

Bjørn Vabo

I agree. Hopefully Tesla can continue to disrupt segment after segment, just look at what happened in the medium size sedan market in the US
Batteries is a technology- cost will continue to fall. The adoption curve will just be steeper from here on out😁

Taylor Marks

A few thoughts:
#1 – When your total number of cars sold is 0, you can say whatever percentage of them you like is anything. 1000% of them will have a fusion reactor.
#2 – The board/shareholders should have this guy removed for his total failure to invest in remaining relevant.
#3 – UN/EU/German Government should remove him for crimes against humanity.

Taylor Marks

Tesla sold 15% as many cars as BMW did globally in September (2018). Is this how he arrives at the number 15%? Does he honestly think that it rose sharply to that point and will rise no further in the next 12 years?

Robert Weekley
I suspect that their tune will begin to change, in about 12-18 Months! By then, we will see if Tesla can make it to 10,000 or more, Model 3’s per week, in Production, AND in Deliveries / Sales! If they do, that is some 40,000+ per Month, on track for about a Half Million Model 3’s, alone, before the China Plant comes into focus! Plus, it seems there is some quiet tweaking of Production in the Model S & Model X lines, for maybe an extra 10% in capacity, or rates, from this last Quarters 1st report on units made! So they migh add 110,000 to maybe even 120,000 units from those lines, pushing up to 600,000 total annual production! In that time frame, we will also see the Unveiling of the Model Y, and no doubt, the opening of Advance Reservations for it! Some Model 3 buyers may want to switch over to the Y, but it will also attract buyers not wanting a Sedan. If its Reservation List Blows that of the Model 3 Out of the water, and rapidly exceeds 500,000, and continues to grow towards 1 Million, I suspect, BMW will be wise to seriously re-adjust… Read more »
Brian

The big question in my mind is how many Model 3s Tesla can sell once they are through their waiting list. What is the steady-state market? Of course, the question may be moot since they will probably have a line forming for the Model Y before they truly work through the Model 3 waiting list.

Viking79

My estimate is 500,000-1,000,000 worldwide annually. 500,000 being based on BMW 3er sales. However, after seeing US response I think that number is low. Burgeoning China market will be very important (largest market in world now).

theflew

China is a large market, but not for $50k cars. Also I would imagine Tesla Model 3 steady state sales to be closer to 150k/yr giving sedans are loosing marketshare at a very quick rate worldwide.

ffbj

Not the Model 3, and it’s a sedan.
I think half way between Viking79 at 750k/a year is about right for the Model 3, once they hit full production..

arne-nl

By the time Tesla starts producing the Model 3 in China the $35k base model will be available. And maybe even cheaper because …. it’s built in China.

antrik

Things don’t always get cheaper just because they are built in China… Labour is only a few percent of the costs; and the difference in wages is shrinking. AFAIK China is also not exactly a global centre for automotive components — so unlike in many other areas (electronics, PV etc.), they don’t have a logistics advantage there either.

antrik

Let’s stop that myth already. China *is* large market for premium cars. The only question is how well the Chinese premium EV market will be covered by local brands such as Nio in the next couple of years…

Bjørn Vabo

This car offer incredible and unpresedented value for money, 10. 000 a week should be Easy..
If offered with a hitch option it will take a serious part of the Norwegian market.. That s for sure.. At last 20% of out total weichle market. That s 500 a week

amt

I Think You Would Be Surprised At How Many People Are Still Waiting On the side Lines To Order Theirs..

antrik

If Model S and X history tells us anything, Model 3 demand is not likely to drop at all once the waiting list is exhausted.

rey

Tesla has to reveal the Mod Y asap and start taking $3000 reservations and build that giant tent in the Giga compound$4billion worth of orders are waiting.

Loboc

That’s a huge difference of opinion. Futurists like Seba and Kurzweil are saying 100% of all new car sales will be EV in the same timeframe.

It only took 13 years to switch from horses to cars. This is a much smaller lift since the factories already exist.

viriato

Do you think that countries like Mexico, South Africa, Egipt, Vietnam, India, Morocco, Pakistan, Malaysia, Russia, Argentina, Colombia, Australia, Indonesia….. all new cars will be electric in 2030?. And some of this countries are not third world. Even countries like France or UK, are talking for baning ICE cars in 2040. Others like Spain or Italy, maybe later. And Poland, Bulgaria, Romania,… probably more, but I think never before 2040.

We are often focused in USA, Europe, Japan, Canada…. but, the world is bigger, and if 2030 is a very, very ambocious target for rich, and modern countries, for most of the world is an utopia.

People will need new cars in 2030, 2040, 2050…. and probably in most of countries, those cars will be not electric cars.

earl colby pottinger

We focus on them here because that is where most BMWs are sold. Do you think BMW will still be as large if it’s market no longer includes North America and Europe?

Robert Weekley

Those are the current bans, and years targeted, but just like CARB Requirements responding to available EV’s, these countries may advance these deadlines, as they see week hearted attemps, by OEM’s, when compared to Tesla!

Andy

They may also reduce those targets, depending on technological progress, industry pressure and political ideology. It doesn’t only go one way, and you have no more a way of predicting the future than anyone else.

Robert Weekley

Do you remember that even in Mexico, Tesla Sells cars? And is installing and Expanding their Supercharger Network? Do you think some Mexicans reserved Model 3’s as well? I Expect that would be a yes! Tesla opened up a few additional Countries at the start of Model 3 Reservations, If I Recall, correctly!

Watch Tesla Model 3 start reaching many new countries in the next 12-24 Months! If any of THOSE Vountries are big BMW markets, it seems “Pressure” will be “Applied”, as people scoop up Model 3’s, instead of BMW’s!

ffbj

Well, there is the rub. Is it going to happen fast or slow, and ice cars aren’t horses, ice cars were so much better than than horses, that the switch was fast. Sure the legacy makers will probably still be selling cheap ice, junk, to the third world countries in 2030, but by then there will also be rather inexpensive evs with better reliability available by then.
I think a 50%-50% split, in 2030 is about right, with ev superseding ice in developed countries..

rey

I was born in a 3rd world country ,raised there and went for a visit last year , there was a Tesla s brought in by a rich person and there are lots of rich people in that 3rd world country and that 3rd word country imports ALL ITS OIL ,electricity is expensive and sporadic but SUNSHINE IS FREE and they have a Solar Panel manu . plant, lots of wind and quite a few windmills and Geothermal plants ,that country also has some homegrown BEVs thanks to some Chinese and Japanese parts makers. That country is the Philippines, pollution is uncontrolled in the major cities and BEVs can’t come fast enough.

antrik

Sure, some regions will make the transition later than others: but none of the likely laggards are among the major automotive markets — so their influence on the global market is limited. And when most of the world moves to EVs, the economics will shift even more in their favour — so the rest will make the switch even without any political support at all.

scott

By 2030 those countries won’t be able to afford oil. Oil prices will skyrocket over the next ten years.

Viking79

Little different though, functionally there was a bigger difference. Here we are looking at more like the new ’65 Mustang where it is changing an existing industry. I think it could still happen very fast (faster than legacy automakers care to admit), 2 car generations would be close to 13 years. I think car landscape will be very different when my 4 year old starts driving.

Henrik

Your 4-year old might be allowed to get a drivers license, barely. First they will raise the age limit as self driving cars will be available and young drivers are dangerous. Then they will raise the requirements for demonstrated skill and theoretical knowledge. Comparable to a private pilot license. Soon about as many people will get drivers licences as currently get pilot licenses. Hardly anyone born in the 2020’s will get a drivers license.

theflew

Cars had benefits over horses. EV’s are just cars with a different drivetrains. Sure they are quiet, and have instant torque. But a lot of cars are quiet and perform well enough for their duties. So it really comes down to cost and environmental impacts of EV’s versus ICE.

philip d

After owning EVs for about 5 years now I’ve become quite aware of an EV’s benefits. Ease of day to day fueling is a huge benefit. Only having to take it in to basically rotate the tires is a HUGE benefit. Being able to precondition my car in the garage is a benefit. Being able to leave my dog in the car when I go in to the grocery in the summer with the ac on is a benefit. Same for passengers who want to wait in the car.

All of these benefits far outweigh the one almost insignificant benefit that an ICE has which is faster fueling on trips over 450 miles.

theflew

I had a Volt in 2012 followed by a Bolt in 2017. I understand the benefits of an EV. My point was your can’t compare going from a horse to an ICE versus an ICE to an EV. There is a magnitude difference between horses and ICE. ICE to EV is an large incremental improvement only. Now flying would be on the same scale as horse to ICE.

Andy
Which is great for you, but for mass adoption of EV’s we need to be looking at populations as a whole, not anecdotal evidence from one individual. Individuals will all have different opinions on what is a positive and what is a negative, and that’s the issue. Yes, your Bolt/Leaf is a good option for you presumably, but a small car like that isn’t something a lot of people will want, neither is a low slung sedan. Aother example is that yes, an EV is a better bet for preconditioning your vehicle in a garage, but an ICE may well be better at preconditioning your vehicle after an overnight stay in subzero temperatures, without the possibility of being connected to a plug. Like everything it all depends on your use case, which will vary widely based on where you live (urban/rural, Florida/Montana), what you use your vehicle for (commuting 20 miles each way to work/long distance travel/farm work/towing), family size (one person/two toddlers/two teenagers) and a myriad of other things. What suits one, does not suit all, and it’s going to be a while yet before we have a situation where EV’s suit the majority of people, even if there… Read more »
antrik

Yes, it will take a while until the majority of people will want EVs. Likely about 10 years, going by current trends. That is about 10 years to >50% market share, not 12 years to 30%…

LS

> So it really comes down to cost

It comes down to cost solely (and performance for that cost).
We already know what the environmental argument alone gets you. It gets you Prius level sales. Good, but never more than a couple percent of the market.
EVs take off when they are cost competitive to gas cars. Right now they are at the Luxury (Model S) and near luxury (Model 3) segment. Eventually they will be cost competitive at the normal ($25k) level and then the cheap ($15k) level. Each step down in price competitiveness will cause an extremely rapid collapse in car sales in that segment if the production capacity is there. Consumers are not stupid, they do see the advantages of EVs when they don’t have to pay more for them.

antrik

The battery factories have to be built from scratch… So I don’t think the transition will actually be easier.

Nevertheless, there is no indication that growth rate will slow down any time soon — so ~2030 for EVs being dominant seems very likely. (It won’t be 100% though: going from 90% to 100% will likely take several years more…)

Andy

It will be unlikely to ever be 100%. It’s likely to be decades after the 90% point for all ICE vehicles to transition, if they ever do, just like a true exponential curve.

antrik

No doubt some people will hold on to the last of combustion cars for a long time, just like with other vintage cars. There might even be some speciality makers building small series of retro cars… But the mainstream market will probably go to zero soon enough.

Andy

No it didn’t. It took around 30-40 years. WW2 was the defining point where the vast majority of journeys were by motorised transport in the west. Even now people are still using horses (even in the west) as legitimate forms of transport – i.e. not just for fun.

You are right in a way, in the US it took around 12-15 years after the Model T was released for cars to outnumber horses, but that doesn’t mean a substantial amount of horses weren’t still being used. To go by that metric you’re looking at around 2030 for more EV’s to be sold in the west than ICE vehicles. Certainly higher than BMW’s 15% (presumably worldwide, not just US/Europe) but certainly not at the level you say your Futurists predict.

Another Euro point of view

What is BMW supposed to do ? Market for a USD70+ EV is tiny and mostly yet occupied by Tesla, market share for of USD 50k EV is not yet defined, market for USD 35k EV still seems rather lame. The resident choir here is singing songs like “Hyundai could sell all the Kona they wanted if they produced more” but did the choir ask Hyundai their opinion on this ? I take it they made a wide market research to adjust their production accordingly. I mean large companies making stuff do these kinds of survey. Now it could be issues of batteries availability but that would be a relatively short term problem.

Fuzzy

Market share for 50k ev is the fastest growing segment in the history of automobiles should become largest segment of the industry once the model y and other 50k SUVs are released.
Reminds me of Microsoft ceo Steve Balmer’s comment after the release of the iPhone in 2007,

$500 for an iPhone? No one is going to buy that.

theflew

Actually very few people did buy the original iPhone – it had no apps or app store. And don’t forget Apple had a lot of money back them because of iPods. It wasn’t as if they were an upstart new to the electronics market. The smartphone just came around at the right time to converge MP3, digital cameras, phones and PDA’s. That’s the part many weren’t paying attention too along with the concept of a single app store. Smartphones already existed and Microsoft had one of the best, but no common app store.

antrik

“Very few people did buy the original iPhone”… Yeah, 6.1 million few.

Another Euro point of view

@Fuzzy, you wrote:

“Market share for 50k ev is the fastest growing segment in the history of automobile”.

With all due respect I think you are wrong.

All we know is that there is a huge waiting list for a car announced at USD 35k by marketing and design genius Elon Musk and that this company started selling them not long ago and is addressing this waiting list as fast as possible starting by the most expensive versions.

What do we know of those who ordered this car ? Are they mainly buying a Tesla or an EV ? What proportion of them were waiting for the USD 27’500 version ? (USD 35’000 less USD 7’500) .

Lets imagine that GM would have announced a USD 50k electric Sedan, would they have had a 400k waiting list as well ? Highly doubtful. Probably they would sell about 2’000 of them every month looking at it optimistically.

So again, what is BMW supposed to do with that information ?

LS

> So again, what is BMW supposed to do with that information ?

Uh.. Realize there is a huge market for a _compelling_ EV and build one?

Another Euro point of view

Yes but let me guess, in your world it is known fact that Tesla will make huge profits selling that compelling USD 50k EV right ? Don’t tell me I found the issue.

antrik

It is a known fact in all worlds, except for #TSLAQ propaganda bubbles.

Another Euro point of view

So the future is known to you ? You should use this amazing gift to trade stocks and become a billionaire then.

eject

If they have to pay the full 40000€ for the Kona you won’t find many customers. EVs are still sold through incentives.

antrik

The Kona doesn’t really count, since they the probably can’t sell it for $35,000 at a profit. But it’s only a matter of time until there are compelling profitable $35,000 EVs. And the time will very likely be a few months from now. Or maybe a couple months more… But there is no reasonable doubt that the time will be much less than the typical development cycle for a new car model — so if BMW doesn’t have anything compelling in development *now*, they will be missing out big time.

paul k

I think the EV revolution is going to be more of an evolution. Still, when the tipping point is reached the pace will pick up. The two legacy automakers most equipped to deal with this are GM and Nissan. It appears to me that GM’s strategy has been to build only enough EVs to gain the engineering experience to seriously compete when the need arises. Nissan has gone deeper producing as many Leafs as they can sell. Both companies developed dedicated EV platforms which I think is crucial. Both companies are gaining the hard experience of messing up along the way.

In terms of propping up share value and dividends I think the rest are going for short term gain / long term pain.

rad

Agree. GM may be sitting on the sidelines, waiting to jump in with a mass produced EV (with comfortable seats) when they feel the time is right.

One thing about ZEV requirements is that the manufacturers have gained the knowledge of how to make an electric vehicle even if they only do it on a small scale. As a shareholder, I would hope they didn’t make too many if they are losing money on them. As an EV enthusiast, I wish they would make as many as they could.

antrik

GM has been sitting on the sidelines in the past; right now they seem to be working on a bunch of serious EVs to be released starting 2020 or 2021… But so are most other legacy makers now. GM seems to have mostly missed the window of opportunity, as far as I can tell.

Bob Nickson

We’re very close to the revolution. Fart cars will not be able to compete with EV’s with a 200 mile minimum range, 100kW+ charging rate, available at or near purchase price parity.

I recently bought a used FIAT 500e, and driving a combustion engine vehicle now feels like the stone age.

The legacy automakers must adapt or die. They aren’t in enviable positions.

rey

Part of the anchor tied to OLD AUTO is the sale model system, they have to get rid of the STEALERSHIPS and that Service model.

buutvrij

Nice to see it’s all hands on deck in Germany, and some japanese started dancing too, they just don’t know witch way (fuelcell, or..?)Tesla kicked them in the….

John

Rats in the maze, protecting the maze..

Warren

They can make the case that they will need the engine in 2030, just to run the AC, as we blow through the 1.5C limit for a livable planet.

Alaa Sadek

In 2030 BMW will sell 85 cars to Africa. And that is 85%.

Lou Grinzo

All the foot-draggers among the Legacies will stick to their story and justify their neo-Luddite ways right up to the moment they don’t. Then they’ll try to tell us that changing market conditions and technology now make it very favorable for them to leap into EVs, where it didn’t just a few years earlier. And by the way, they’ll introduce EVs that they’ve clearly been working on behind the scenes for years.

I don’t worry about BMW or Honda or Toyota going out of business or being forced to merge with another company. I predict they’ll come around, even if they have some painful struggles getting batteries amidst a rush of car makers that are suddenly enthusiastic about EVs.

Andy

“tell us that changing market conditions and technology now make it very favorable for them to leap into EVs”.

You do know that’s how technology works right? It’s called trickle down.

Sure, Ford probably could make a 250 mile EV car tomorrow, but who’s going to buy a $50-100k vehicle from someone like Ford, when the vast majority of their car sales are in the $15-30k range?

Someone like BMW on the other hand should be closer to releasing a legitimate vehicle, and they are.

antrik

You are missing the point of the article. Of course every maker will sooner or later have to change their mind — but those who haven’t been preparing a dedicated platform years in advance, will have a major cost disadvantage for years to come. That might very well end them; or at least substantially weaken their market position.

antrik

Eh, sorry, that wasn’t actually the point of *this* article… Had it confused with the other one, where this was the point 🙂

silversod

Can you imagine the price of petrol/diesel in 2030 in Europe!, it’s £1.36/ltr at my local garage this morning, that’s £6.19/$8.14 UK gallon.

Andy

No one knows, as its price depends both on the commodities market – if EVs reduce the requirement for Oil then the price may go down (remember we’ve just come out of an oil price slump because of oversupply) – and tax, of which the majority of the price of UK petrol is (around 70%). That tax income is going to have to come from somewhere else – it may well be transferred to EV’s in the future.

antrik

Taxation will have to be applied to EVs in the future, but not until *after* they become mainstream.

CDAVIS

Article Headline: “BMW Exec: 85% Of Our Cars Will Still Have Engine In 2030”
————-

Basically that BMW exec is saying:

We OK with Tesla taking 85% of our business by 2030.

Time for a new BMW Exec..

Or better yet… BOD needs to replace entire top level executive management starting with CEO.

The current BMW executive team is in denial BMW is in big-time trouble and even if they did realize it they would not know how to re-position BMW to compete against a Tesla.

MikeG

85% of zero is still nothing

Edit: ninjaed!

ffbj

But will 85% of BMW still be around in 2030.

amt

They Can Do It 0n Their “0wn Terms” 0nly if People Keep 0n Buying Their Gas Mobiles By 2030..0ptimistic they are ! , to say the least !

philip d

Predicting what will be 22 years out is a fools errand.

arne-nl

Uuuh, 12 years out?

(you point still stands tho, 12 years in today’s highly volatile auto market is still a very very very long time)

rey

BMW like all legacy old auto are caught in a bind , the Stealerships and ICE, needing constant maintenance/oil changes ,repairs keeps them busy ,taking away that profit from dealers that bznz dies and so the car co.,or look for the Stealerships to extract more concessions from the mother co.

Thom Moore

If that’s so, BMW will be out of business by 2030. Simple as that…

Some Guy

Well, interesting to learn that BMW will focus sales on Russia and Australia in 2030 and cede the negligible North-American, European and Chinese market to others. Probably the right decision, given the fact that Tesla gives them a run for the money in the US with the Model 3 and easily outsells the 3-series already. As for China, it’s 12% requirement by 2020, and short range PHEV don’t count. Surely, that number will never be raised again afterwards…
And don’t forget about the emerging African market. Someone better tell him that the Chinese will take care of electrifying that market, and likely offer dirt cheap EVs by then.
When reading his statements, consider this: In Germany, many high level execs retire at age 60. Their pension fund even will survive bancrupcy of the company. So he will long be retired by the time his prediction is proven incorrect, and can’t be bothered anymore if his actions in steering the company straight towards a wall have consequences someday.
So far, it’s only VW execs who can’t leave the country for a better climate or air quality after retirement, unless they want to risk prisontime abroad…

arne-nl

How often can you spell the poor man’s name incorrect? 😉

Frolich Frochlich Frohlich.

It’s Fröhlich

antrik

Or Froehlich, for those who can’t be bothered with input methods or copy&paste…

(To be fair, it’s already misspelled in the article linked as “source” — though not in the actual source article underlying it…)

windbourne

He phrased that wrong.
He should have said that 85% of our MODELS will have ICE in 2030.
I have no doubt that 95% of the cars sold will be BEVs.
And just because BMW screws up, does not mean that ppl will be buying their junk.

Andy

Well if that’s the case VAG, Toyota and Nissan Group will be releasing a lot more models that they’ve announced in the next couple of years…

Wishful thinking doesn’t make it real.

Mr. M

hahaha, a engine. 😀 sure, a electric engine. 😀

h3x6g0n

Sounds like BMW is going to be in some spectacular deep dong in about 10 years.

antrik

15% by 2030? Well, if that’s what they truly believe, it’s no wonder they don’t want to go all-in with a dedicated BEV platform… Not having a competitive platform however will make it a self-fulfilling prophecy. They are doomed.

Dani Silva

BMW will fail.

NZ Prof

Given that BMW are being currently massacred by Tesla in the US, with sales dropping off a cliff, what will it take to make BMW see that the world has changed? For the Model 3 to arrive in Europe and destroy BMW sales there?

amt

Doing It On Their Own Terms, 0r Doing it On Their Own Expense 0r Both ?…ha ha !