BloombergNEF Expects 2.6 Million EVs Sold Globally This Year, 57% In China
Bloomberg New Energy Finance Calls Clean Energy Transport A Resilient “Safe Haven” For Investors.
Bloomberg’s research organization BloombergNEF foresees solid growth in electric vehicle sales for 2019. They state that 2.6 million EVs are expected to be sold globally for the year. If their predictions come to pass, this will represent a roughly 40% growth rate over 2018 numbers.
This sounds less impressive when compared to the 70% growth rate seen in 2018. However, the publication says many headwinds were factored into their analysis. Considering these, a better outcome for clean energy than “steady” growth could not possibly be asked for. According to Angus McCrone, Chief Editor at BloombergNEF:
If “steadily” sounds dull, then it is unlikely to be – because 2019, at least viewed from mid-January, has all the hallmarks of being a turbulent year in the wider world of economics and politics. Against that backdrop, steady means resilient, a safe haven.
According to Bloomberg, China will take the lions share with a 1.5 million sales forecast. Europe should follow with just under 500,000 sales. North America should rise slightly to roughly 425,000 deliveries. While Japan and South Korea should combine for a solid 100,000 sales.
China will continue to lead due to strong policies that favor electric vehicle growth. Colin McKerracher, Head of Advanced Transport at BNEF, says:
China’s market is in transition, and the recent annual doubling of sales every year looks unlikely to hold in 2019. We expect subsidies to be cut in February, but with a phase-out period that lasts until the end of 2Q. The ‘New Energy Vehicle’ quota takes effect this year but the requirements for 2019 are relatively modest. Broader macroeconomic factors (higher interest rates and slowing consumer spending) will also impact global sales. In markets like the US and the UK, direct purchase subsidies are already starting to wind down.