BloombergNEF Expects 2.6 Million EVs Sold Globally This Year, 57% In China

Tesla Model 3 (Source: China AutoReview)

JAN 18 2019 BY WADE MALONE 18

Bloomberg New Energy Finance Calls Clean Energy Transport A Resilient “Safe Haven” For Investors.

Bloomberg’s research organization BloombergNEF foresees solid growth in electric vehicle sales for 2019. They state that 2.6 million EVs are expected to be sold globally for the year. If their predictions come to pass, this will represent a roughly 40% growth rate over 2018 numbers.

This sounds less impressive when compared to the 70% growth rate seen in 2018. However, the publication says many headwinds were factored into their analysis. Considering these, a better outcome for clean energy than “steady” growth could not possibly be asked for. According to Angus McCrone, Chief Editor at BloombergNEF:

If “steadily” sounds dull, then it is unlikely to be – because 2019, at least viewed from mid-January, has all the hallmarks of being a turbulent year in the wider world of economics and politics. Against that backdrop, steady means resilient, a safe haven.

NIO Delivers First ES8 Electric SUV In China

According to Bloomberg, China will take the lions share with a 1.5 million sales forecast. Europe should follow with just under 500,000 sales. North America should rise slightly to roughly 425,000 deliveries. While Japan and South Korea should combine for a solid 100,000 sales.

China will continue to lead due to strong policies that favor electric vehicle growth. Colin McKerracher, Head of Advanced Transport at BNEF, says:

China’s market is in transition, and the recent annual doubling of sales every year looks unlikely to hold in 2019. We expect subsidies to be cut in February, but with a phase-out period that lasts until the end of 2Q. The ‘New Energy Vehicle’ quota takes effect this year but the requirements for 2019 are relatively modest. Broader macroeconomic factors (higher interest rates and slowing consumer spending) will also impact global sales. In markets like the US and the UK, direct purchase subsidies are already starting to wind down.

Source: Green Car Congress, BloombergNEF

Categories: China, Sales

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18 Comments on "BloombergNEF Expects 2.6 Million EVs Sold Globally This Year, 57% In China"

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Wouldn’t that be less than 40% growth?? I thought almost 2 million cars were sold in 2018. Anyway I’m predicting 3 million.

I hate to say the Tesla growth story is DEAD. 🙁

Musk now admits that 2018Q4 will be less profitable than 2018Q3, that 2019Q1 might not be profitable whatsoever, that they will “NEED” to deliver in ALL markets in Q2

This basically guarantees that march bond convert will never happen which makes this news even worse.

“Tesla to Dismiss 7% of Workers, Says Profit to Fall”
https://www.bloomberg. com/news/articles/2019-01-18/tesla-to-cut-jobs-indicates-sequentially-lower-profit

Interesting – it’s posted to Tesla’s blog, but not shared anywhere else, and only Bloomberg has picked up on it so far.

Anyways, yeah, says profits will be smaller for Q4 and that Q2 and beyond will be a challenge with the credit winding down and vehicle prices going down, but his tone for Q1 seems pretty positive to me, compared to how you’re putting it:

“This quarter, as with Q3, shipment of higher priced Model 3 variants (this time to Europe and Asia) will hopefully allow us, with great difficulty, effort and some luck, to target a tiny profit.”

A tiny profit isn’t bad. A tiny profit means they’re able to continue funding growth without outside investments. It’s not as good as a big profit, but it’ll mean they’ll have three quarters in a row of being profitable – a first for them.

Gigafactory 3 should cause a significant bump to revenue once it starts production, and a year from now, there won’t be any credit left to be reduced – Tesla will finally be without training wheels, so I think that’ll be the end of “bad things coming up”.

Another Euro point of view
One day ago when news came that Tesla was stopping the customer referral program because of costs, the word “costs” was mostly dismissed in the comments here & many rejoiced assuming that it was because sales were so high that this program was not needed anymore. Now it appears according to Elon’s memo that it was really about costs (I mean, he said it after all…) in order to be able to sell the mid range version at a profit. How brainwashed can people be ? Moreover, if Tesla feels the need to sack employees to be able to sell the midrange Model 3 at a profit it means that the orders for high priced Model 3’s coming from Europe and China are not exactly flooding Tesla. Also, how are they going to fix their customers experience issues with a reduced workforce AND selling large quantities of Model 3. Indeed growth story might take a huge hit from this annoucement except if competition really screws up their EV programs which is still a possibility. Really curious how EVs blogs will spin this info. Probably we will have to wait half a day before news dare to appear then we will… Read more »

Cost reductions do not indicated a lack of demand.

Another Euro point of view

You are right but I take it that it would be less crucial to compromise growth like this if European and Chinese demand for the most expensive versions of Model 3 was anticipated as being very high.

Removing redundant jobs doesn’t compromise growth.

In the same Bloomberg aertice:
Auto Job Cuts:
– GM will close plants and eliminate more than 14,000 positions, though most hourly workers will be offered positions elsewhere
– Ford will cut thousands of jobs in Europe; Morgan Stanley has estimated the company’s worldwide total reductions could reach 25,000
– Jaguar Land Rover will cut 4,500 jobs, most of them in the U.K.
– Nissan announced 700 job cuts at its Mississippi plant this week

This doesn’t change the growth story at all. The growth story means demand keeps rising long term — it’s pretty much orthogonal to need for cost reductions.

Based on numbers from the EV Sales Blogspot 2018 final 2018 numbers should be close to 2 million, an increase close to 60% from 1.22 million in 2017. There numbers do not seem to match up with the numbers from Bloomberg NEF.

Regarding the predictions, I agree there will be headwinds in the USA (because of Tesla losing subsidies, though they are willing to reduce their prices to compensate in part) and in China, but there will be tailwinds in Europe, because of new models arriving and because of the mounting pressure to comply with emission standards in 2020/2021.

1,500,000 for China would be my best guess as well — for pretty much the same reasons pointed out by BNEF. (Though given the historical intermittency of that market, pretty much anything between 1,300,000 and 1,800,000 seems possible…) The new mandate should broaden the market, forcing more makers (especially global ones) to introduce EV models — but I don’t expect these compliance models to push the total market significantly. Most of Chinese growth should again come from BEVs. While some global makers are trying to fulfil the mandate with PHEVs, and thus presumably pushing them strongly, I don’t think most of these have models ready that are eligible for Chinese subsidies — making them a rather tough sell… Most PHEVs will probably continue to come from Chinese makers like BYD and Roewe, keeping PHEV growth more or less in line with overall market growth at best I’d say. The BNEF forecast for the rest of the world however seems strangely pessimistic. As far as I’m aware, the rest of the world saw about 500,000 sales of PHEVs and BEVs each in 2018. The PHEV count in Europe will likely continue to be under pressure due to the various rule changes… Read more »

I’m always optimistic, so I like to think:
China: 2+ m
RoW: 1.3 m (at least)

🙂

unfortunately we have to remember that Bloomberg predicted several times that Tesla would soon fail, not to comment predictions about chinese car makers flooding the world, BAIC funded by Buffett to be soon the leader in electric cars and so on. Reality is BloombergNEF is unreliable and the journalists working there are just copy and paste gossip rewriter.. don’t trust BloombergNEF and simply let’s see. About China’s market… well it depends on orders of Chinese Communist Party. Xi Ping could wake up tomorrow and say: forbidden to sell any ICE car, you can sell only any kind of EV cars. That market isn’t a market oriented free choice market, so how to make provisions? Moreover: the moment chienese car makers will be able to produce enough relevant EV cars for sure Xi Ping will order to sell only EV cars. Again about Bloomberg and provisions and China’s market… what is the sense to say: “2.6 millions EVs, 57% in China”. It makes to appear like it is possible to sell cars to China, when it is not possible at all, only if you produce there and only with a JV with a local company which is 100% directly or indirectly… Read more »

You are misinformed. BNEF is a market research organisation. Beside common ownership, it has nothing to do with opinionated (in various directions) Bloomberg news writers. BNEF certainly never predicted Tesla would fail.

BAIC is not funded by Buffet. Buffet owns a minority stake in BYD.

Tesla isn’t setting up a joint venture for production in China. They get a fully owned subsidiary. (First car maker to do so, shortly after a rule change allowing for it.)

No it was exactly the right choice because the loyalty is to the mission no to something for nothing non contributing patasites.

Right now PG&E which helped bring CA Enron and subsequent rate and tax payer bailout and did the Aliso Viejo with more of the same just did wild fires and is thinking it can offload another natural gas bailout for 35 billion on rate and tax payers. Its .8% private equity owner Blue Mountain is trying to keep it from filing bankruptcy claiming that it only owes a duty to its private owners when it idiotically has no competition a private monopoly and even more idiotically guaranteed profit. This would be like saying PG&E should be able to intentionally run someone down in its lot and the only liability would be from other people to fix the dent in its car. What should happen is we should be able to prosecute Blue Montain for criminal conspiracy for even trying to foist this theory and be able to imprison its officers and private investors.

BNEF is stupid. Stupid in the way that our learning Cohen paid to have CNBC polls lie about Trumps numbers. Want to think CNBC wasn’t complicit in this look at CNBC’s reporting on Tesla. The doubling will accelerate

What was their prediction for 2018? Can’t find it. I guess they were too pessimistic.

Looked it up and Bloomberg NEF were predicting that global EV sales would be around 1.5 million in 2018, so they were quite off. They were predicting that sales of EVs in China would slow down as they removed the subsidies, however, the Chinese government instead updated the subsidies to favour longer range EVs. This resulted in a lot more growth in China than many were expecting.

Once again it looks like the Chinese government might remove EV subsidies in 2019 but who knows, perhaps they will change direction again?