Bloomberg New Energy Finance: 95 GWh Of EV Batteries To Be Extracted From Cars By 2025

OCT 15 2016 BY MARK KANE 17

Bloomberg New Energy Finance released an interesting forecast that 95 GWh worth of used EV batteries will be extracted from electric cars by 2025.

Because the current price of used EV batteries (with still some 70-80% of capacity) is half that of new ones, a lot of those used packs will get second-life in energy storage systems.

Battery storage system electrified by BMW i announced at EVS29 in Montreal

Battery storage system electrified by BMW i announced at EVS29 in Montreal

However, ESS (energy storage systems) are pegged to only take up about 26 GWh, or 27% of the total used EV batteries by 2025.

According to BNEF, because the pricing of new batteries will drop significantly, profit from the use of old ones also will also decrease. Combined with longer-life/warranty for new batteries, older batteries will slowly lose their large advantage of today.  A conclusion we are not so sure about.

But if BNEF is right, the window for using old EV batteries is only temporary – “The window for developing a vibrant secondary market for these batteries may close as prices comes down, sometime in the next three to five years“.

Claire Curry, a New Energy Finance analyst in New York, said:

“There’s a sweet spot now where new batteries are still expensive for stationary use,”

“The cross-over will happen when the costs drop to $200 a kilowatt-hour,” she said.

While we feel that Bloomberg presents a good case for greater use of new cells in energy storage solutions, there is still no beating “free” and the excessive capacity often found when buying a used pack is always a nice luxury…to say nothing of the fact that a used EV battery will always be sold at whatever price that the market will bear – something new cells can never compete with.

So, we feel that when those fancy new 100 kWh Tesla batteries, or 60 kWh Chevy Bolt EV batteries are being turned in 10+ years from now, they certainly will still offer a huge advantage from buying a new/smaller battery for ~triple the price.

source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance

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17 Comments on "Bloomberg New Energy Finance: 95 GWh Of EV Batteries To Be Extracted From Cars By 2025"

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Used packs are going to have a lot more maintenance trouble and expense, and they overall won’t last as long. I see them more as a cheap resource for do-it-your-selfers than any commercial projects.

I dont know about more maintenance. What is there to do really, if the battery is old? Id say a battery needs the same level of maintenance throughout its lifetime, which is very little. An older battery has a shorter life left than a new. But at the same time a used EV battery will be cycled less as a stationary storage, which still makes it viable for years and years.

I think we will see new companies that specialize in reusing batteries. The market would only be growing.

There will also be companies that specialize in recycling battery cells to retrieve the elements, which then can be sent to battery cell factories.

Mostly replacing dead cells, but also loose connections, flooding damage, etc.

These batteries may have 70% of their energy storage left but their usable life is probably well over half gone.

I used to be responsible for monitoring & maintaining hundreds of UPS systems, from 1 kVA up to 130 kVA.
Most of the time, I could only get 2-5 years out of the VRLA batteries that are quite heavy.
I would have given a lot to have units with lighter batteries that lasted longer & had more energy storage.

I think the contrary.
ESS, will have a strict environment control, temperature, discharge and charge rate, no vibration or shock.
On large scale application, at least.
Could probably also see some get rejuvenate a bit with appropriate cycling treatment.

I want an old Leaf pack to use to daily store and use my excess power generation.

Haha, ya right.

They might do just fine for years of use, down in a cool basement.

Say an old Leaf battery starts at 24kwh capacity, after it drops below 70% of original it is pulled and repurposed. That’s still a 16 kwh battery, which is plenty big enough for high utility along-side solar panels. In a temperature controlled environment, and with relatively low charge and discharge rates as compared to what the batteries were designed for in their primary automobile use, further deterioration should be relatively slow. Even if the pack degrades at 5% per year, that still leaves you with a 10 kwh pack after 10 years.

Not sure they will welcome my ’11 Leaf pack, just gone below 40AH or 60%… wish I could get one of the 70 – 80% ones to swop.

I have long wanted to buy an auxiliary power supply of some sort that would only be used when my power goes out. Here in northern Virginia we have had 2 power outages in the past 10 years that were 3 days long or longer. I got enough dry ice to keep my food frozen the first time but the second time, the dry ice was sold out and my food spoiled.

It would be great to have the ability to plug my fridge, a fan and a light or two in and a light wouldn’t hurt either.

Apparently, when a refrigerator’s compressor turns on, it requires a really high electrical load for several seconds then it settles down to a normal appliance load. But the initial spike makes it hard for a battery to work correctly to power a fridge.

If I have this wrong, I would love to get the straight dope from someone who knows better!

I live in a condo that doesn’t allow gas generators, so that option is out.

Packs can be used for quick chargers, if you use enough of them the reduced capacity is not a problem.

I think used automobile packs will be a huge resource going forward. I don’t think battery technology advances fast enough to offset the the massive depreciation of an auto battery after it’s past its useful lifespan in the original application.

The amount of storage required for a long range EV, i.e. 60kwh for the Bolt, 100kwh for top Teslas. These are pretty large amounts of storage compared to typical household use, especially if you compare to a household that has been optimized for efficiency.

Average household uses about 30 kwh of electricity a day. First strategy when greening your household is to invest in efficiency and conservation. So you might get that down to 20 kwh daily use. If you put solar panels up, they will directly supply some of that 20 kwh, and if you had a used Leaf battery at 12-15kwh, that would be all you’d need to timeshift most of your use/production to avoid being a strain on the grid.

I got it down to down to 15 kWh per day. The new inverter air conditions and fridges helped to bring it down to that level. So a 15 kWh battery will be a very good solution and for many years to come. Th current prices of used EV batteries is still high though. Once the Giga factory gets the price to less than $100 then the price of used batteries will also drop to maybe a third of the new. This will create a new market. The DIY and the internet will make easy to use these used batteries. So the world will change; and to the better.

95 GWh…. that could keep the lights on in the US for 12 minutes.

Much more than that if the US switches all the lamps to LED.

Forget lighting, I think electric HVAC is the main problem. If we could figure out a way to make heating and cooling with electricity 20% more efficient, we would be in high clover!
These new “90% efficient” heat pumps are nice but they still suck juice like a drunken sailor.

They’ll probably be used at rapid charging stations as grid electricity buffers.