BEV Advantage Over PHEV/EREV Highest In U.S. In Four Years

OCT 25 2015 BY MARK KANE 87

Tesla Motors Gallery in NorthPark, Dallas

Tesla Motors Gallery in NorthPark, Dallas

While exploring the market outlook in the U.S., we are taking this opportunity to look at the difference between all-electric and non-all-electric plug-ins.

Using data collected by the Electric Drive Transportation Association, which breaks down BEVs and PHEVs (incl. EREV), we found out that the advantage for BEVs is increasing.

Note: Data from EDTA typically slightly differs compared to InsideEVs due to the estimations involved with Tesla sales, but the numbers are very close overall.

All-electric car sales (despite Nissan LEAF plunging) increased in most months this year (6,704 and +12% in September), which translated to 51,267 sales in nine months (up from 44,003 or 16.5% in the first 9 months of 2014). But a big part of that growth comes from Tesla Model S (estimated 17,000 compared to 11,300 year ago).

On the other hand, Chevrolet Volt and Toyota Prius PHV weighed heavily on plug-in hybrid sales, which have been falling not only every month of this year, but 14 months constantly, according to EDTA.

We’ve seen a significant drop from 44,146 in the first nine months of 2014, to 29,853 so far this year moved the PHEVs (incl. EREV) share among plug-ins to just 31% – its lowest mark in four years.

Now, we await new sales results from the 2016 Chevrolet Volt in October.  Then we will see if the chart once again becomes more balanced, or at least growing on both sides if the new 2016 Nissan LEAF (with 107 mile range option) both arrives and sell decently enough to offset the Volt gains in the last two months of the year.

Plug-In Car Sales in U.S. – September 2015

Plug-In Car Sales in U.S. – September 2015

data source: EDTA

Categories: Sales

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87 Comments on "BEV Advantage Over PHEV/EREV Highest In U.S. In Four Years"

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Expect the percentage of BEVs to increase, and the PHEV percentage to decrease, when auto makers start selling the nominally “200 mile” EVs. That trend will continue as batteries improve and charge times come down until, eventually, PHEVs become as obsolete as gasmobiles. But that likely won’t happen for a human generation or so.

I disagree. There will be limited models of BEV for a while yes, but PHEV versions of existing models will start to appear more quickly. Also since the lifestyle change for PHEV is much less than pure battery they will be an easier sell to consumers.

Personally I have one BEV now and plan to only get BEV in the future, but I don’t need a truck, van, or SUV.

“Also since the lifestyle change for PHEV is much less than pure battery they will be an easier sell to consumers.”

This has always been the case but it has not stopped BEVs from outselling PHEVs.

More European compliance PHEVs with very short AER in order to drive in European city centers that ban ICE operation will not sell very well here. Unless NYC,SF,LA, Miami etc start making the same bans.

I almost purchased a PHEV…Thought about it some more,& Decided against it .,I’m Glad I didn’t buy*..PHEV’s Are complicated, which result in “Double Trouble”, Now you have 2 powertrains to maintain & repair ….I’m keeping my C class Until a respectable mid sized EV comes along., with at least a 200 mile + Range, without all that “un-needed” power the Tesla cars put out & less bells & whistles @ a Lesser $$ price… LESS*IS MORE!

The fly in the ointment here is that my Tesla Roadster with 0 options (just bare-bones, no fancy infotainment to break, plain incandescent headlights as opposed to troublesome xenon ballasts, etc), was the most troublesome, failure-prone vehicle I’ve ever had by a wide margin.

I’ve complained recently about a ‘lack of maturity’ amoungst automakers. GM has it too, but in their case it makes their PHEV’s very reliable.

I mean I complain about such things as being stuck trickle charging at 15 amps at public charging stations (2.8-3.0 kw only), but the thing DOES work, and that’s the whole point.

So Bill, if the Volt had a 6.6 kW Charge Rate, would that double the pleasure of Driving it? (Or, at least half the pain of public charging with it?)

You’re right, maybe my pissing about it is not justified since its such a minor point.

If they charged $1580 for an upgrade as does Nissan for the Leaf for 3 more kw (from 3.6 to 6.6) I probably would say its not worth it and not order the option anyway…..

I’m just saying there are always things to complain about. But the overriding ‘happyness’ is the reliability of the 2 gm cars i have to date. I’ll put up with the other stuff.

Bill, I thought that the $1580 option got you DC Fast Charging as well as the upgrade to 6.6kW charging? I am not positive about that so take my memory of what the upgrade entails with a grain of salt.

You are absolutely right. Unfortunately though, not a single Chademo charger within 74 miles of buffalo (there is one in Toronto, Ontario, Canada)

i have never had much incentive to seek out public charging. the economics of public charging seem very unattractive in comparison to the cost of gasoline. the idea of paying a $1,600 premium for fast charging (and then the cost of the charging itself) makes the economics of public charging even less attractive. if i am charging exclusively at home (as i do), then fast charging seems to be of little value in a car like the chevrolet volt, or in any other phev.

when people write of buying a tesla model 3 and being willing to pay $2,000 for access to the tesla supercharger network, those economics seem even less attractive. if you use the supercharger network in the manner that elon musk prefers, long distance trips only, it would be prohibitively expensive when compared to the cost of gasoline.

i appreciate that those of high household incomes are willing to pay a premium for the experience of electric vehicle driving, but if we are talking about moving *ev’s beyond the niche, most of the general public is not likely to share this preference.

This is my problem with purists, I drive 75% of my miles in Electric and the rest of 25% are ICE. A Nissan Leaf owner would drive those 25% in either their rental car or second car which is an ICE. With an exception of Tesla, most of the EVs are super-painful to travel some distance and stay in hotel, where there is no charging facility. The Volt2 is really in a good sweet spot, can it be better? definitely, but I cannot recommend enough Volt2 if you are looking for a Sedan.

Robb Stark said:

“This has always been the case but it has not stopped BEVs from outselling PHEVs.”

Yup. The ability of PHEVs to replace gas-powered miles with electric powered ones is limited, because PHEVs have limited EV range. In general, BEVs offer better EV range. Those car buyers whose motive is to replace gas-powered miles with electric-powered miles have a strong motive to choose a BEV over a PHEV.

Perhaps we’ll start seeing more PHEV sales if and when auto makers finally start offering PHEVs with a good EV range; say, 70 miles or more. (And no, the crippled BMW i3 REx doesn’t count. It only technically qualifies as a PHEV.)

i actually own a phev and i use about 1 tank of gasoline in a year.

Clearly you should have bought a BEV.

Not if he used the tank of gasoline for long trips (300+ miles)

One tank of gasoline is a 800 mile journey. 😉

i thought that you were joking…

no i would not have been better off with a bev. for example, i have taken only 1 long trip in my car, but the volt was great when i did; when i needed to stop for gasoline, i was able to fill up in 5 minutes and keep going.

my driving profile generally fits well with the model used by chevrolet, but the range extender allows me to do more than usual amounts of driving without having to worry about recharging. i live in a cold climate so the range extender allows me to not have to worry about the hit that i take in aer during the winter. the extender also allows me to use a 120v outlet for recharging as it is not vital that recharges be does as quickly as possible; so i can run a few errands, and run additional errands even if i don’t have enough time to recharge the battery.

I agree wiith you . For myself is 85% electric. I live in the north too and I aprappreciate the confort of the Volt in winter.
I freeze so much in my working life, operating equipment without a proper heater and some time not working heater. For now the Volt have some adventage but is not for every body.

A BEV that meets 95% of your car needs is about as useful as a toilet that meets 95% of your toilet needs, which is to say: if you don’t have another toilet (or car) available, it’s not very useful at all.

Pushmi-Pullyu said:

“Perhaps we’ll start seeing more PHEV sales if and when auto makers finally start offering PHEVs with a good EV range; say, 70 miles or more.”

Disagree. 40k+ Outlander PHEV buyers in Europe disagree with you too. It has been outselling the Leaf and Model S in the UK. Golf GTE and Outlander PHEV have outsold the Leaf and Model S in the Netherlands too. 70 miles is way more than the typical driver drives in the majority of days.

Regardless, drawing conclusions on marketplace demand when the model choices are so supply constrained is silly. The top selling U.S. PHEV’s of 2012-2013 have been seriously supply constrained for a while. If they weren’t, or if the same models that were available in Europe were available here, the numbers would be very different.

Nate said: “40k+ Outlander PHEV buyers in Europe disagree with you too. It has been outselling the Leaf and Model S in the UK. Golf GTE and Outlander PHEV have outsold the Leaf and Model S in the Netherlands too.” Fair cop, I should have been more specific. I should have specified fully functional PHEVs… which, to date, includes only the Volt (and the Cadillac ELR compliance car). Not tiny-ranged PHEVs like the Outlander PHEV and the Golf GTE, which are so limited in EV power that they can’t even climb hills or accelerate up to highway speed without an assist from the gas engine. Nate continued: “70 miles is way more than the typical driver drives in the majority of days.” Going strictly by the average yields a misleading conclusion. From the statistics for actual Volt drivers “in the wild”, I estimate that we’d need about 70 miles of electric range to achieve 85-90% miles driven on electricity. Nate continued: “The top selling U.S. PHEV’s of 2012-2013 have been seriously supply constrained for a while.” I don’t know what you mean. The Volt has been the top selling PHEV in North America for years, and has never been supply… Read more »
Pushmi-Pullyu said, “I estimate that we’d need about 70.. “: I’ve explained in detail a few different reasons why that chart does not actually back up your estimate when you had pretty much the same post in a previous thread. I’m not going to bother explaining again now. The bottom line is we both think better choices are needed, but I’m not convinced by your argument that AER is the most important improvement PHEV’s need. They need models with more utility, and the success of the Outlander PHEV shows there is something to that. Don’t take my word for it, just go back to the articles on this site regarding U.S. availability — it was a disappointment to get pushed back so long. Pushmi-Pullyu said, “I don’t know what you mean..”: You and probably others didn’t because I didn’t explain clearly. In terms of inventory, the Volt wasn’t the only rig I was referring to. Regardless of if you don’t like the car, the PIP has definitely had points where it has been supply limited in much of the country. There are less than a couple hundred around for a car that sold pretty consistently at over 1000 a month.… Read more »

Once someone have tasted the joy of a BEV,, he will never come back to ICE

That’s a Fact!

I sold my BEV for a PHEV. The new owner is very happy with it, and is well-healed enough so that he can afford the outsized repair bills sure to follow.

At least I convinced my Dentist to sell his Prius and buy a VOLT or ELR, so he got a 2015 Volt. His commute is 56 miles, provided he doesn’t run any errands, so he had an electrician install an outdoor ‘air conditioner outlet’ to run his Aerovironment Turbo Cord. First time I saw one of those things, – the cord is very thin, and the unit fits under the weatherproof cover of the outdoor outlet. Very convenient, and a perfect fit for the volt’s 15 amp requirement.

Bill, have you owned hybrid of any kind long term? Having two power sources make for expensive repairs/maintenance as they get older. I gave up on hybrids when Prius battery died, and battery price to be more expensive than comparable used car. I took meticulous care of Prius, only to become worthless in less than average car’s age (11 years).

I think you live in NY, which isn’t fast charge friendly (hopefully only for now), so your BEV experience is probably worse than with fast charge area. If you have the money, PHEV would be a compromise, but gas could would be better.

Yes, BUffalo, I’ve had a Volt and a Roadster since early 2011, but traded in the Roadster May 2015 for a new 2014 ELR (they skipped the 2015 model year).

Volt has been very good, – no repairs so far – and the brakes will last as long as a bev. ( I did have a fuel pump changeout under warranty, but that’s due to an idiosynchrosy of GM’s, that mean you can’t ever run out of gas – I never run out now).

Fast charging has never been an issue, most of the time I charged at 6 kw, even publicly. The battery was so large that I just needed a bit extra to get home, so didn’t have to spend too much time at a 6kw charging facility.

The Volt’s Megacharger system (gas station) fills the bill during long trips. As has just been stated, charging up on your existing 110 volt outside outlet and/or garage outlet on a very large number of sales means an incredible amount of gasoline has NOT been used. And no expensive infrastructure changes whatsoever.

The only problem I had with Prius in 11 years was two intake induction cleaning. Since I live in rural area, and I guess dust got in from dirt roads. Gas engine ran perfectly, but it’s junked now since battery costs more than comparable used car.

That’s what I worry about for hybrids (Volt); once the battery dies, no matter how good the gas engine is, it’ll be pretty much junk. I mean, why spend $5000 on battery when gas engine is 11 years old, no matter how pristine it may be due to being seldom used?

For BEV, there’s no worry of gas engine with battery replacement. For gas car, there’s no worry of battery if they replace major components, although gas cars last more than 11 years seeing how average age is 11 years with most on original engine. For longevity, I think hybrids are worst of both worlds.

i’ve got a chevrolet volt, but i’m riding it like it’s a benz.

Slightly off-topic, but…. I assume you mean *negative* lifestyle change? The only thing is… there is no negative lifestyle change in owning a EV. With a hybrid, you are still stuck with the all the old ICE baggage with the only advantage over EVs being that your range is ‘unlimited’ (it isn’t, in the same way that an EV’s range is only limited by the opportunity to charge, an ICEV’s range is only limited by the opportunity to re-fuel – it’s just that there are a shed-load more re-fueling points than rapid chargers… for now). On the other hand, in an EV you have a host of advantages over ICEVs. As you are an EV owner I’m sure you know what they are… I just don’t understand why you want to perpetuate the myth that for the average motorist, owning an EV involves a negative lifestyle change…?! Perhaps you are looking at it from a US POV – sure, there are few options in the EV line-up in the way of SUVs (especially towing-capable ones) and vans etc. But for the ‘average’ motorist, particularly commuters, the re are quite a few options now and in a year there will be… Read more »

+1

I totally agree and have thought this for a while.

As batteries get denser, cheaper and faster to recharge, it’s going to cost more and make less sense to have dual drive trains. The recharging infrastructure will also improve, diminishing the need for an ICE REx.

I predict the PHEV / EREV design will move up the food chain to pickup trucks, large SUVs and semi trucks. The PHEV platform is well suited for towing and long-haul.

One more visualization, please. How about that last chart arranged so the bar height conveys the total sales? It would be like the first chart, but flipping the bottom half up to the top to show the combined market growth over time, and inclusive of the ratio between BEV and PHEV/EREV.

I fear that GM’s decision to launch a 2017 Volt so soon in 2016 is going to cannibalize the 2016 sales (which are limited as it is) and not provide the sales recovery in Q4 2015 that we are looking for. Nissan, this is your small window of opportunity to sell/lease 2016 Leafs.

I agree. I was going to buy a 2016 MY Volt, but I’m willing to wait a few months to have the “enhancements” (whatever those are) in the 2017 MY.

you seem to be suggesting that a person would compare a 2016 volt to a 2017 volt in determining whether to buy a 2016 leaf. such reasoning makes little sense to me; if you are intent on buying a my2016 car, and are considering the chevrolet volt and the nissan leaf, then you would compare a 2016 volt to a 2016 leaf in making that decision.

I can see this being a factor in late ’15 through early ’16. A lot of plug in buyers lease either to protect themselves from falling values due to rapidly increasing tech, and/or to take indirectly take advantage of the full tax credit if their taxable income doesn’t otherwise. So if you are coming off a lease, and aren’t in a state with the 2016 Volt, then your choice has been narrowed.

the original poster was talking about the my2017 volt cannibalizing sales of the my2016 volt. you’re referring to something completely different.

Original poster also mentioned “Nissan, this is your small window of opportunity to sell/lease 2016 Leafs.”

Regardless, the extended period where the 2016’s are limited to select areas, followed by a 2017 model with content yet unknown is far from ideal. It adds to uncertainty if you don’t know what that content is and if it is worth waiting for. If you know the difference in the content and the pricing (like you do for the current lame duck ’15 Leaf vs. the upcoming ’16) you at least know what that difference is worth to you, and can make an informed decision based off that. Buyers fear making a bad decision. Gen II Volt roleout seems a little botched.

That chart could have looked so different if Mitsubishi had brought the Outlander PHEV to the US. It is a car of a format that would very much appeal to the general public, not just the US.

You could argue it’s looks, but it’s very practical in most regards, and if you spend that much money on a (new) car. You would want to get something useful in return.

As well if the Tesla Model S wasn’t selling in good numbers.

@Seth,
I agree that chart needs some work.

Just one observation I’ve noticed among the general population:

They don’t understand Hybrids….and they don’t buy what they don’t understand. To them having both a gas AND an electric power train is more complicated (and of course more expensive…at least in their own minds).

These same people of the general population somehow kind of “get” the idea of the Tesla. It is simple (albeit expensive) to understand and in the back of their minds they also know it should be less expensive to maintain since all the gas stuff goes away.

So if we can give the general population a vehicle that is less expensive to maintain, costs the same as a gas car and has some decent range and a recharging infrastructure I thin JQ public will be on it like stink on doggy do do.

Very nicely said…..*

the “general public” is no more the current market for the model s than they are the market for the benzo s-class or b-mer 7-series. the current market for electric vehicles is a high household income segment. as to the understanding of the “general public” i suspect that they don’t understand bev’s any more than they understand hybrids, and i very much doubt that many could tell you the difference between a bev, a phev and an fcev. yes, there is definitely an educational hurdle to overcome, but the obstacles to bev adoption by the general public are a bit more significant than you suggest.

This is your own POV but I disagree.
Basically, everything that Is not a pure EV is more confusing the general public than anything else.
I’ve own a BEV since early 2012, and even if lot of people get confuse about some, it’s just to ask me again to be sure of my answer, “So there’s is no gas, at all?”
” Yep, just battery”
Affirmative on both count I can tell you their brain begin to work full time and even if I can’t read their mind, I’m pretty sure their thought are like ” Wow no gas, that really neat, this is what I’m looking for, no more hostage of those ***** guy.

This article seems to show exactly that.

Djoni said:
“This article seems to show exactly that.”

Can you base demand and consumer perception based off sales, if supply is seriously constrained? I don’t think you can. The article doesn’t show this and it does not say anything about buyers not understanding hybrids. If there was an issue with understanding hybrids, Toyota wouldn’t have been able to sell 100k+ consistently. If there was an issue understanding hybrids that helps skew plug-in sales towards BEV’s and away from PHEV’s, why isn’t a BEV isn’t the # 1 (or #2) seller in the Netherlands right now?

It was a response to no comment. Mostly it’s base on nothing else than what people tell me about it, and what I perceive it is, and corroborate by the actual sales. Not on a future market with many fold choice of BEV or PHEV.
The point I’m trying to emphasized is when people have a better understanding of the electric propulsion and how it could be viable for their own needs with the necessary adaptation, they will rather choose all electric than anything else.
Of course, PHEV will be the choice of those who don’t want or think it’s a no compromise solution.
All is good, but if BEV already sell more than PHEV, all that can happen is even bigger sales with the upcoming longer/cheaper range to come.

Sure, I fully agree that there is untapped potential for BEV’s espcially with households owning their own home with 2+ cars. I agree simplicity is a selling point, and I’ve recommended people check out the Leaf. I also see untapped potential for PHEV choices, as I’ve more than a few people’s eyes light up when they realize there normal day routine could be driven all electric in a PHEV. A former co woker of mine traded in her civic hybrid after talking with me about my Volt. There is potential for both to grow.

What I disagreed with was the part implying the article somehow shows anything in terms of consumer demand or preferences. The sales data doesn’t corroborate when you look at the top selling plug-ins in Germany, Netherlands, and the UK. But that is not the point. My point is due to the limited choices in both BEV’s and PHEV’s, you can’t effectivly corroborate the U.S. sales data any more than I can corroborate sales data in Europe given the gaps in models thus inventory so far.

if you’re stating that the chart above reflects consumer preferences and demand in the *current* market for *ev’s, i will agree with you. the problem is that the current market for *ev’s is not typical of the market for automobiles. i doubt that any auto makers are pleased with the relatively small size of the *ev market and so the issue is to expand the market. but expanding the market entails expanding beyond the early adopter/high household income segments that make up the current market for *ev’s.

so while the chart clearly reflects the current market, it does not reflect the general market into which the auto makers wish to expand. for example, the chart shows that the number of bev’s sold exceeds the number of phev’s sold, but the *ev portfolio’s of most auto makers (other than tesla) are introducing more phev’s than bev’s. does this mean that auto makers are stupid? i don’t think so, i think it is further evidence of how unrepresentative the chart above is of the general market for automobiles.

Was replying to PP’s comment, not yours.

Edit, meant Djoni not PP. But as far as your last reply, no that is not what I was saying. The U.S. chart does not reflect the general auto buying market prefers, no more than the (very different) results seen recently in Europe.

no comment said:
” but the *ev portfolio’s of most auto makers (other than tesla) are introducing more phev’s than bev’s. does this mean that auto makers are stupid? i don’t think so, i think it is further evidence of how unrepresentative the chart above is of the general market for automobiles.

Hum..logically your conclusion should be the complete opposite.

If there are more choice of an option that doesn’t sell as much as one with lesser option, it’s clear enough what people prefer.
So this chart does reflect exactly that.
BEV would be the primary choice of anyone who think it fit their need or taste.

This will change soon as the rollout of the 2016 Volt gets under way.

Yes! For some., but not for others…….*

i would say that the potential market for the chevrolet volt is a lot bigger than is the potential market for the nissan leaf, but that the leaf is a lot closer to achieving its maximum market size than is the chevrolet volt.

The market size of EVs is 100%. The dealers and the advertising suck.

The volt is a cramped compact. The 2016 doesn’t change that. It’s addressable market is more limited than a more functional BEV. The bolt has potential. The mistubishi outlander could do very well since it’s closer to the sweet spot of the overall car market.
Tesla focuses on making the best car. Most who buy it buy it because it’s a great car, not because it’s a BEV. But it’s a great car because it’s a BEV.

I agree that both Gens of the Volt are too small, but the Bolt is on a platform that tends to be even smaller than the Volt. Given a battery location under the cabin and the CUV body type, it might end up being as roomy as a Volt but I doubt it will be roomier. Though I wish it would be.

the funny thing is, people in europe seem to be able to get by without feeling the need to drive monster trucks and suv’s. if gasoline were taxed in the u.s. the way that it is in europe, people in the u.s. would get used to smaller cars.

I agree ,0nly reason…,The Nissan looks like a Cartoon Car & The Volt Looks like a Real Car……….

Since Nissan Leaf is in its 5th year and moving to 6th year with the same model, we cannot expect much increase in sales from that model.

Still Model-S has made up for the lost Leaf sales.

And in 2016 with 25% increase in Leaf, it can increase in sales.
We have to see how Volt-2 performs given the fact that its highly improvised, by sold only in 11 states.

If anyone can., NISSAN I am sure can Produce a very Good Looking Mid sized “EV” with “LEAF” like reliability , That is not so much about “SPEED” with real world 200 plus + mile range…Anymore I’m not so sure tesla can., With all the reliability issues that I’ve been reading about. Plus They Are T00000 Hung Up On Speed…0 to 60 means everything to them ….They should get back to basics. Not All 0f Us Want To “LAUNCH” L M A 0

I fully agree ……..Tesla is too hung up on speed. Set the torque limit to a value to give 0 to 60mph time around 6 seconds and watch gear box and tire problems go way down.

No Outlander PHEV or BYD Tang/Qin results in USA having a high BEV to PHEV ratio, but that is reflective of what is not available in USA.

Being the home country of Tesla helps too

this is meaningless data to use as the basis for any kind of conclusion or forecast because it is heavily skewed toward early adopters. in relation to the automotive market, these numbers are quite small. there is a reason why automakers are skewing their plans toward phev’s – because they want the market to be much bigger than it is today.

Unfortunately, legacy auto makers are “skewing toward” making PHEVs with minimal, 12-25 mile ranges, which means none of them have a battery pack which provides sufficient power for the car to accelerate using only the electric motors.

We need more fully functional PHEVs like the Volt. And not more of these tiny-range PHEVs that are little more than greenwashing.

keep in mind that while the ev enthusiast is willing to buy technology, the general public is buying convenience and transportation (of course there are other aspects like design but these aspects do not depend upon whether the car is ice or *ev), so containing cost is important. bigger cars need bigger batteries to get range and the u.s. is a big car market. more range will be more easily achieved as battery costs and energy densities are reduced but i still expect auto makers (other than tesla) to remain focused on phev’s for the foreseeable future. that said, there is a limit to how much range you can get with an overnight charge from a 120v outlet, so that might also put a practical limit on how much battery is worthwhile to put in an electric vehicle.

I’d agree we need more choices. The one thing I’d throw out as an idea is that the AER can be lower for large vehicles and still result the same net fuel savings.

Out in the burbs, there are so many minivans and 3 row SUV’s that drive a lot of short trips shuttling kids and running household errands. They have opportunity charging in between. Their driving routine is skewed toward their terrible city ratings (<20 mpg). Replacing these miles with electric miles goes farther than the miles driven by small-mid size cars.

that wasn’t my point; my point was that there was a limit to how big of a battery you could install that could be fully recharged in an overnight charge from a 120v outlet. the gen2 volt, for example, is probably pushing the limit of what you can fully recharge in an overnight recharge from a 120v outlet. until it becomes the norm to deliver 240v to the garage, most home recharging will occur at 120v. of course the ev enthusiast will install level 2 evse but the general public would probably not want to bother with the expense such that if they had to install a level 2 evse to own an electric vehicle, they would probably reason that it’s easier to stick with an ICE.

I understand your point, but that was not the comment I replied to. I replied to PP’s.

The conclusions of the article would be rather different if one looked only at ‘affordable’ (sub-$40k base MSRP) PEVs, where the PHEVs are outrunning BEVs handily – BEV sales are only being buoyed up by Tesla, and it’s pretty depressing news for BEVs that a car that starts at $71k continues to outsell all other BEV models, which generally start at half as much.

Ford is the best selling PHEV-maker in the U.S. this year, followed by Chevy, and judging by the Fusion Energi’s sales the Sonata PHEV should be a hit. If we were to up our ‘affordable’ price cap to $50k, then the i3 REx would increase the PHEV advantage even more, judging by the approximately 3:1 ratio of REx to non-REx i3s I see in the Bay Area.

Leaf plunging is great news since that means there are fewer “no charge to make people wait while slow charging”. I hope 107 miles Leaf does poorly, unless Nissan revise their “no charge to make people wait while slow charging” program. I’m sick of getting Leaf*****.

(warning contains NSFW language)
http://sparkev.blogspot.com/2015/10/jerks-all-around-us-iced-leafed.html

***mod edit (staff)***
please watch the NSFW language in the comments, we like to keep it PG if was can, and add a note to links that are similar
***mod edit***

Yeah, I haven’t been a fan of public charging stations. There are too many problems with them. That’s why I think that a 200 mile BEV is necessary. Nissan was very slow to see this.

Even with 200 miles per charge EV, you still need public chargers if you’re going to replace gas cars.

200+ miles per charge EV won’t solve the problem. Tesla already has 200+ miles per charge EV, and they were having crowding problems such that Musk sent out notices to Tesla owners.

Staff. Sorry. I started the blog post with just Leafed (40kW to 6.6kW charging), then had an encounter with Leaf***** taking dualhead charger when Chademo was empty, and blew it. Will watch it in the future. Thanks.

Staff, changed all offending words to Leaf rack (from Battlestar Galactica). Hope that’s ok.

Hey SparkEV,

Its ok for your link to have whatever content you like, it’s just here out in the open you have to be careful, (=

…a NSFW tag is nice to give people a heads-up though when you are linking out

readers might be interested in watching this live streaming of awards presentations at the conclusion of the World Solar Challenge

http://www.worldsolarchallenge.org/

The one thing I don’t get is why Nissan doesn’t have a market ready, affordable (mid $30s), 200 mile BEV (at least a 2017 MY). If GM and Tesla can do it (in the Bolt and Model 3, respectively), why can’t Nissan. They have a decade of experience in manufacturing an affordable and popular BEV with 70-100 mile range, so they should have a big advantage.

Nissan doesn’t have any magic wand it can wave to make the price of batteries come down. The reason demand is so high for LG Chem’s new batteries is because they’re significantly cheaper per kWh than batteries offered by any other li-ion battery manufacturer.

Car manufacturers need to be able to make a profit on the cars they sell. If it was possible to make a profit on a $30k BEV, then Tesla would already be selling them. The reason Tesla is only selling expensive cars is because, to date, it has been impossible to make a significant profit on cheaper ones.

I expect a 200 mile Nissan BEV will arrive within six months of the Bolt, and possibly before the Bolt. Nissan seems a lot better at keeping secrets.

Seth said:

“the Outlander PHEV… it’s very practical in most regards, and if you spend that much money on a (new) car. You would want to get something useful in return.”

I certainly won’t argue about “practical”, but my definition of “useful” in a PHEV would include the need to be able to drive more than ~22 miles on a charge, without turning on the gas motor. In fact, with a battery pack that small, it’s going to be turning on the motor every time you press the accelerator very far.

It’s possible to drive the Outlander PHEV for 30 miles in EV mode.

Here in silicon valley there has been steady improvement of sales in all phev and bev to the point of ridiculousness. I mainly judge by the number of dealer plates I see, and the constant stream here of leafs, teslas, fiats, volts and others is getting greater and greater. In the local small shopping center I saw 4 of them, including one stalled and driverless in the middle of the way (yes, I am guessing it ran of of power). I was the first leaf in my neighborhood, now there are 2 on my small street and 5 on the longer street next door, plus a tesla.

The 200 mile cars I think will kick this in to even higher gear. I don’t see the same thing happening in any other city, north in portland, south in los angeles, or even close by in san Francisco they are still relatively rare.

So what happens if Silicon Valley becomes the only city that really embraces EVs? The answer is that I am fine with that.

You are special. They should add you to the next season.

I know they don’t want to fool with their most profitable products, but sooner or later you’ll see the most popular vehicle in America, the 3/4 ton pickup truck, ‘volticized’.

Then the gasoline savings will really add up.

The ‘charge – sustaining’ engine need only be a LARGE 4 cylinder as opposed to the 6’s and 8’s typical of the gas only trucks..

Agree here with Bob Lutz again. These electrified vehicles (the size of which is the most popular vehicle in America, rightly or wrongly) will save around DOUBLE the gasoline of each Volt or Plug-in-Prius.

I clicked reply (and was replying to) Pushmi-Pullyu. He said, “We need more fully functional PHEVs like the Volt. And not more of these tiny-range PHEVs that are little more than greenwashing” I agreed we need more PHEV choices (and BEV for that matter), but think vehicle size choices is overlooked because we’re so focused on range. The vehicles currently pulling car pool duty for pickup/dropoffs and then running errands in between could greatly benefit from going from their current 0 AER to just 12-25. Also, not mentioned, there is a huge difference between 12 and 25 AER – more so than going from 25 to 38. Return diminishes in a PHEV as you go higher. The vehicles getting 0 AER and 17 mpg city are more important to improve on that the Civic’s and Corolla’s out there. They won’t get replaced until there are better reasonably priced BEV and PHEV family haulers. I think drawing market conclusions at this point is pretty worthless, but more because the serious lack of choices and inventory at times. Come to think of it, I’ve almost gotten a Leaf twice and I did have a bit of a concern what it might cost… Read more »

(that was reply to comment 750967#).