Battery Revenues From Transportation & ESS To Overtake Consumer Electronics By 2018

SEP 10 2017 BY MARK KANE 4

Transportation and Stationary Energy Storage Will Overtake Consumer Electronics as the Largest Markets for Energy Storage by 2018 (source: Lux Research)

Here comes another benchmark!

The automotive industry already demands more lithium-ion batteries than any other, and according to Lux Research, by 2018 the transportation and energy storage battery market will combine to be worth more than the entire consumer electronics battery market.

Volvo Battery electric, Pure

It’s expected that by 2025 the total lithium-ion battery market will be worth $100 billion, while total energy to hit 400 GWh annually.

By then, most of the battery demand will come from automotive – $69 billion and more than 300 GWh. Additionally, $19 billion will be contributed from ESS (energy storage solutions) and $12 billion from consumer electronics.

“By 2025 the energy storage market will top $100 billion with applications in transportation alone reaching $69 billion. Transformations in the electricity grid mean that stationary storage has the highest growth rates and will reach $19 billion in 2025. This growth will have profound implications, ranging from how whole economies are powered to how populations and products move around.

  • Transportation is the clear long-term driver of energy storage demand.Transportation applications are now the largest source of energy storage demand – expected to reach 46 GWh in 2017 compared to just 27 GWh from consumer electronics. Although energy storage volume in consumer electronics will grow at six percent compound annual growth rate (CAGR) through 2025, falling battery prices mean the market size will remain relatively flat.
  • Electric vehicles (EVs) are the largest opportunity for growth.Within the transportation market, the applications that will drive the highest revenues are those using the largest packs: electric buses and passenger EVs. Passenger EVs make up the biggest opportunity, worth $32 billion in 2025 – 46 percent of the market for energy storage in transportation. Electric buses will see a faster rate of adoption compared to EVs, but with fewer total vehicles sold, they remain the second largest opportunity, growing at 22 percent annually to a $9.7 billion opportunity in 2025.
  • China and India lead stationary energy storage growth.Stationary energy storage will be a 34 GWh market worth $19 billion in 2025, largely driven by the emerging long-duration market. The need for long-duration storage in uses like peak power shifting or renewables integration will expand significantly, with the emerging markets of China and India driving the most growth.

As the energy storage industry surpasses $100 billion over the next decade, several developments will occur in transportation and stationary applications.

For transportation, plug-in vehicles will likely face volatile sales as subsidies expire globally while 48V hybrids emerge as the winning technology for automakers.

For stationary applications, more experimentation with new technologies and business structures in the coming years are likely to emerge as it becomes a test bed for next-generation batteries, including metal-air and flow batteries. Ultimately, the transportation and stationary space are likely to collide as new opportunities in vehicle-to-X (V2X) concepts will emerge.”

source: Lux Research

Categories: Battery Tech

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4 Comments on "Battery Revenues From Transportation & ESS To Overtake Consumer Electronics By 2018"

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By forecasting about 340 GWh for transportation in 2025, they are thinking of (for example) about 5 million vehicles with average battery capacity of 68 kWh, or 3.4 million vehicles with 100 kWh average.

My forecast is a little different…
About 100 kWh average capacity and some 50 million (new) vehicles.
That means at least 5,000 GWh that year.
I hope it will be more.

5 Million in 2025 sounds right. With EU requiring 25% of sales to be EV (due to CO2 rules). That will be 3 Million cars (BEV and PHEV). China will double or tripple sales until 2025 making it another 3 Million. With US and the rest oft the world having another 2-3 Million cars you get to 8-9 Million cars (BEV and PHEV) but with PHEV having only 10-30kWh and BEV 30-100 kWh it is likely that the average battery size is below 68, maybe around 50kWh.

In 2035-2040 having 50million EVs sounds reasonable to me.

There is a new story that came out just a few days ago about Chine\a.

I suspect that if China goes all the way electric than these battery numbers will change.

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